CRUDE OIL (CL, USOIL) Weekly Forex Forecast... BULLISH!Looking for price to reach towards 80.11 this week.
Oilforecast
Friday retracement?? Forecasting.I am looking at crude to make a retracement today after couple days of down movement its been nice but can;t last forever.
So the arrows display where I think price will go today as a first target and second PDL
Keep it real simple on Fridays you got the weekend coming and you don't want to go into it with a loss or a win stay neutral.
Thursday Forecast / Into Next weekNo we have Hit the daily FVG I am looking at the lows off
76.91
76.83
To be taken.
In conjunction with my other forecasts this week of being Daily bias Bearish!!
USOIL - Short or Buy? Break down or retracement up? Technicals
1. We have been stuck in a range on a higher time frame for quite some time now.
2. On a higher time frame we failed to confirm a break-up from a trendline dating back to March 2022, which was the COVID-19 highs. A failed break-up of this mega trendline is normally a sign of big reversal or retracement. & we did just that ;-) question is, is this a reversal or just a retracement because I see also a trendline from DEC 2023 which we trade just under. IMO we have not fully confirmed that break down.
3. Visible in my chart we see that we are since then on a big down sloping channel which is still respected.
Fundamentals
1. My bias is slightly bearish long term because I think the US economy & other major economies will be in a recession which will give downside pressure on the price of OIL
2. Conflict in the Middle East seems to have not a significant impact as of now on the price of USOIL. Will this change? Till I see major escalation happening I don't see that it will have greater impact than it already has. US also is less energy dependent so therefor geopolitical will impact less.
3. Bullish sign is that OPEC is still holding strong on OIL cuts and China is still strong. Summer season will also give some upside pressure because of demand.
Trade
1. The first trade, which is a buy option, I will take if I see buyers really taking over to push price up
2. The second trade, which is a sell, I will take if we confirm a break and retest of the weekly low.
Great trading all of you
Greetingz,
Simba Trades
Crude Wednesday Pre NewsSo this is the forecast for Crude pre 1030est news.
I'm favouring some BSL to be taken if the 1hr FVG gets disrespected.
With 1hr fvg above and the BSL that is pointed out with the arrows.
If we show rejection from the 1hfvg we are currently near then PDL will be the target.
With news there is no certainty.
Overall I am HTF bearish however a sweep on BSL could be on the cards today.
Crude oil analysis
Crude oil prices are struggling as investors weigh recent hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve despite cooling U.S. consumer inflation data last week. Fed Vice Chairman Michael Barr said on Monday that the Fed is in a good position to keep policy steady and focus on the economy.
Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she no longer believes three rate cuts in 2024 are appropriate. She stressed that inflation risks are skewed to the upside and given the strength of the economy, there is no harm in taking more time to collect inflation data.
The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September fell slightly to 60% from 65% on Monday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
In Canada, the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline (TMX) began commercial operations this month, overcoming years of regulatory delays and construction setbacks. The expansion will transport an additional 590,000 barrels per day from Alberta to Canada's Pacific Coast.
Investors are now turning their attention to supply from OPEC and its affiliates (OPEC+). They are scheduled to meet on June 1 to set output policy, which will include a decision on whether to extend voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day by some members.
Crude Oil Tuesday ForecastI Have in Mind that we will be BEARISH bias mostly this week as we have Tapped into the Premium Daily FVG yesterday and rejected lower.
My two targets shown in the forecast are the arrows.
Daily PDL
Weekly SSL
Now it is important to realise that the market is moving in London and a straight sell into 0830 or 0930est wouldn't be the best move.
Waiting for a retracement and then finding your model to get into the market is what we all strive for and to do couple times a week as intra day traders if the market gives us the opportunity.
Lets see how this plays out !!!
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Crude - Testing the waters...We saw our weekly target hit yesterday,
I have a hunch as on the Daily we are constantly going back to the middle of the range that bsl of some form is in the eye of the market before we would want to move down.
I ask myself.... Why would we want to go all the way back (weekly ssl level) if we have been here and raided Sell Stops... If I was the market I would want some breakfast first before I head down for lunch and dinner right?
So for PRE 0930EST im watching to see if price respects the 4hr FVG's.
This will indicate some bsl to be taken.
Crude Oil WednesdaySo as per previous forecast for Crude we are bearish bias.
We have come to the weekly wick ce again and come CME or NY open I am anticipating a retracement that respects the FVG marked in the chart... Sure sometimes price might 'mowhawk' above like sense says.
Be patient and wait for price to make a MSB on at least the 5min before using your entry model to target the INTERNAL SSL as your main objective.
If price wants to get outlandish then the WEEKLY SSL'S are the next POI.
Monday Crude Oil ForecastWith no news injections today I would stay on the side lines.
We have Daily Wick level in conjunction with a 1hr FVG which if Crude Oil is substantially bearish should respect leading upto NY open and CME open.
The overall bias for me is still bearish with weekly ssl in the lower half of the charts marked with a magnet. This is the draw and what I will be waiting for / a setup to form.
You do have to stay dynamic however as the Daily candle on Friday took BSL inside of a Daily FVG.
This is respecting the bias.
EQH's where left in its wake so if the 1hr fvg and Daily wick is closed above on the 1hr TF we should start to consider that the market has other short term plans.
Stay Dynamic and if your bias doesn't match you can always stay out of the market!
Money preservation is very important.
GLGT- ;)
Oil can rise again...Ascending trend line holds price and can push it to goes high again.
Double bottom potential in lower timeframe and zigzag pattern can cause price rise again.
Trade safe.
Good luck.
Crude Thursday Forecast I've been very reluctant to publish any idea's this week intra day, as I believe we are in retracement from the amount we sold off recently.
The 4hr wick CE is the point of interest I have where price respected
I am aiming for the 15min SSL to be broken and a setup form this CME open....
Lets wait and see...
Crude - Pre Market Guessing.So I don't take too much of my time on the weekend trying to figure out where price is going to go as price isnt even active.
So barring any exponential moves Sunday open I am still bearish and have :
Monthly Wick CE and target 1
Weekly SSL as target 2
Pre CME open I will re analyse where the market is and publish further forecast for the day.
OIL BUYAgain an opportunity to expect oil to rise.
The exchange rate rebounds from the support-resistance level.
Technicals On Crude Post FOMCWednesday we saw Crude make a nice substantial move downwards as the previous forecasts have shown.
A large range day isnt normally followed by another day with a extremely large range and you can think of it like a runner running 800meters and couples minutes later having to run another race shortly after... energy needs to be recouped.
I am staying bearish and would like to see the Daily FVG and PDL liquidity taken and Daily FVG to be filled/spiked to.
30min fvg CE aligns with Daily ifvg which I believe should hold price lower.
Watch these levels post NY open.
Oil - Looking To Sell Pullbacks In The Short TermH4 - Bearish trend pattern
Lower lows
Until the strong resistance zone holds I expect the price to move lower further after pullbacks.
FOMC Crude OilDaily Target met post NY open and Crude oil news.
Drop mic.
Just imagine you had the skill or someone to guide you where price is going?
You have the model... you just need direction.. we all struggle at one point on the bias esp intra day which needs a trader to be dynamic in his/her thoughts even when price is going against them intra day.
Daily/Weekly are essential.
Will update later for further bias and forecast for Crude!
Technical Forecast... Crude OilWith FOMC looming today and NFC I don't see any reason for the Weekly SSL to be taken out and price to at least stab into the Daily FVG.
I will be looking out for meaning full moves into these price points during NY session today.
London may offer a little chance to create some false idea we have done it but usually the move is fake and revisited.
80.50 is my weekly objective as it has been from late last week.
So my trade idea's will evolve around price post retracement and then heading down.
More downside on USOUSD after failed breakAfter failing to breakout the Top Trendline price has started to make its way down towards the Bottom Trendline which has been forming itself this past week, if we get the break were expected ill take shorts targeting a 1% move down for the first Target with the rest targeting the most recent prominent low at 81.118
Crude Oil Tuesday.Daily Bearish
Stay Bearish bias until 1hr -OB is closed above with a displacement candle @ 83.25
In this chart I am illustrating why IMO, this is a High resistance Liquidity run and not LRLR.
The Price in the circle is Balanced, so for price to cut through this with ease is difficult all be it we have a signature LRLR bellow.
So if a bearish setup appears don't expect it to run through like butter..
I am looking for bearish PA
Crude Oil ForecastSo I was looking at Crude on the weekend and I couldn't determine a clear direction for Monday.
Now Monday Is almost over and we Have disrespected the Mean threshold of the Daily +OB I do expect price to be bearish and heading down towards the Daily FVG.
An Good indicator on the Daily we have respected the WEEKLY ifvg CE.
These things are very important to watch.
Before 0930est I will post intra day targets that I suspect will be Draw On Liquidity.
Bring on Tuesday!
