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Oilforecast

Oil Long Term View: Start of uptrend in Q4 2024, $125+ in 2025Short term potentially in a cup and handle pattern since June 2022, currently in the distribution stage around the bottom. Needs to close above 21M EMA for confirmation. An uptrend can start in Q4 2024, which would get the price to $125+ in 2025. Long term the price seems to be in an uptrend since 2016, if excluding the 2020 outlier. The resistance at 200M EMA seems to have changed into support. Momentum is beginning to increase to the upside, as liquidity and M2 money supply will increase beginning in Q3-Q4 2024.
TVC:UKOILLong
by dumcom
1
USOIL - Short or Buy? Break down or retracement up? Technicals 1. We have been stuck in a range on a higher time frame for quite some time now. 2. On a higher time frame we failed to confirm a break-up from a trendline dating back to March 2022, which was the COVID-19 highs. A failed break-up of this mega trendline is normally a sign of big reversal or retracement. & we did just that ;-) question is, is this a reversal or just a retracement because I see also a trendline from DEC 2023 which we trade just under. IMO we have not fully confirmed that break down. 3. Visible in my chart we see that we are since then on a big down sloping channel which is still respected. Fundamentals 1. My bias is slightly bearish long term because I think the US economy & other major economies will be in a recession which will give downside pressure on the price of OIL 2. Conflict in the Middle East seems to have not a significant impact as of now on the price of USOIL. Will this change? Till I see major escalation happening I don't see that it will have greater impact than it already has. US also is less energy dependent so therefor geopolitical will impact less. 3. Bullish sign is that OPEC is still holding strong on OIL cuts and China is still strong. Summer season will also give some upside pressure because of demand. Trade 1. The first trade, which is a buy option, I will take if I see buyers really taking over to push price up 2. The second trade, which is a sell, I will take if we confirm a break and retest of the weekly low. Great trading all of you Greetingz, Simba Trades
FX:USOILSPOT
by Simba_Trading
Crude oil analysis Crude oil prices are struggling as investors weigh recent hawkish comments from the Federal Reserve despite cooling U.S. consumer inflation data last week. Fed Vice Chairman Michael Barr said on Monday that the Fed is in a good position to keep policy steady and focus on the economy. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said she no longer believes three rate cuts in 2024 are appropriate. She stressed that inflation risks are skewed to the upside and given the strength of the economy, there is no harm in taking more time to collect inflation data. The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September fell slightly to 60% from 65% on Monday, according to the CME FedWatch tool. In Canada, the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline (TMX) began commercial operations this month, overcoming years of regulatory delays and construction setbacks. The expansion will transport an additional 590,000 barrels per day from Alberta to Canada's Pacific Coast. Investors are now turning their attention to supply from OPEC and its affiliates (OPEC+). They are scheduled to meet on June 1 to set output policy, which will include a decision on whether to extend voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day by some members.
TVC:USOIL
by RID_WK
1
Crude Oil Tuesday ForecastI Have in Mind that we will be BEARISH bias mostly this week as we have Tapped into the Premium Daily FVG yesterday and rejected lower. My two targets shown in the forecast are the arrows. Daily PDL Weekly SSL Now it is important to realise that the market is moving in London and a straight sell into 0830 or 0930est wouldn't be the best move. Waiting for a retracement and then finding your model to get into the market is what we all strive for and to do couple times a week as intra day traders if the market gives us the opportunity. Lets see how this plays out !!!
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader
Crude Oil Bullish Side Robbery Plan to make moneyMy Dear Robbers / Traders, This is our master plan to Heist Crude Oil based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart. There is Two Targets Our target is 1 & 2 Danger Logo and Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich. Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target. support our robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Join your hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday.
BLACKBULL:BRENT
by Thief_Trader
Crude - Testing the waters...We saw our weekly target hit yesterday, I have a hunch as on the Daily we are constantly going back to the middle of the range that bsl of some form is in the eye of the market before we would want to move down. I ask myself.... Why would we want to go all the way back (weekly ssl level) if we have been here and raided Sell Stops... If I was the market I would want some breakfast first before I head down for lunch and dinner right? So for PRE 0930EST im watching to see if price respects the 4hr FVG's. This will indicate some bsl to be taken.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by IamThattrader
Crude Oil WednesdaySo as per previous forecast for Crude we are bearish bias. We have come to the weekly wick ce again and come CME or NY open I am anticipating a retracement that respects the FVG marked in the chart... Sure sometimes price might 'mowhawk' above like sense says. Be patient and wait for price to make a MSB on at least the 5min before using your entry model to target the INTERNAL SSL as your main objective. If price wants to get outlandish then the WEEKLY SSL'S are the next POI.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader
Monday Crude Oil ForecastWith no news injections today I would stay on the side lines. We have Daily Wick level in conjunction with a 1hr FVG which if Crude Oil is substantially bearish should respect leading upto NY open and CME open. The overall bias for me is still bearish with weekly ssl in the lower half of the charts marked with a magnet. This is the draw and what I will be waiting for / a setup to form. You do have to stay dynamic however as the Daily candle on Friday took BSL inside of a Daily FVG. This is respecting the bias. EQH's where left in its wake so if the 1hr fvg and Daily wick is closed above on the 1hr TF we should start to consider that the market has other short term plans. Stay Dynamic and if your bias doesn't match you can always stay out of the market! Money preservation is very important. GLGT- ;)
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader
Technicals On Crude Post FOMCWednesday we saw Crude make a nice substantial move downwards as the previous forecasts have shown. A large range day isnt normally followed by another day with a extremely large range and you can think of it like a runner running 800meters and couples minutes later having to run another race shortly after... energy needs to be recouped. I am staying bearish and would like to see the Daily FVG and PDL liquidity taken and Daily FVG to be filled/spiked to. 30min fvg CE aligns with Daily ifvg which I believe should hold price lower. Watch these levels post NY open.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader
Technical Forecast... Crude OilWith FOMC looming today and NFC I don't see any reason for the Weekly SSL to be taken out and price to at least stab into the Daily FVG. I will be looking out for meaning full moves into these price points during NY session today. London may offer a little chance to create some false idea we have done it but usually the move is fake and revisited. 80.50 is my weekly objective as it has been from late last week. So my trade idea's will evolve around price post retracement and then heading down.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader