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Long WTI & Short Brent as price differential tightens?Oil Brent continues to trade at a premium of more than $8 per barrel to WTI oil , with the price difference between the two oil benchmarks increasing significantly and well above its historical average this year. One of the primary drivers of the widening Brent/WTI price spread has been a significant increase in the availability of North American crude, which has created more downward price pressure on the WTI market. The US government has injected180 million barrels of crude into the market through scheduled Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases as of October 18, 2022, to help resolve the market supply disruption created by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and to help cut energy costs. U.S. SPR releases are now complete, and crude oil reserves in the United States are at their lowest point since 1983, according to the latest estimates from EIA. The possibility that the Democrats would suffer a loss in the midterm elections in two weeks might rule out the possibility of more SPR releases being made at a later stage. In this scenario, the forces that pushed the price of WTI below that of Brent would diminish significantly. As a result, the price spread between the two oil benchmarks may return to tighter levels. Going long on WTI and short on Brent is one way to reflect the idea of closing this oil price gap. Throughout 2021, the difference between WTI and Brent was on average about -$2/bbl and ranged from -$4.5/bbl to parity levels. A mean reversion to the period prior to US SPR releases would suggest an increase from current prices of about $6.5/bbl. If, on the other side, the spread widens again and breaks through the -$10/bbl threshold, the strategy will be proven incorrect.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Capitalcom
10
XTIUSD...BUY (3.88%)Entry: 84.900 TP: 88.000 SL: 83.620 Weekly TF: On the weekly TF, XTIUSD needs to bounce back and form a H&S...with Oil moving to $62.5 per barrel. According to my fibo mark; market entry at $89 has been in place...but NB: (market can move to that region for the second time before selling to $70.687 and $63.440 per barrel). Daily TF: There's a possibility that, if a barrel of Oil breaks above $88.010 and ignores the weekly fibo entry at $89, the $97 dollar price per barrel would be achieved and hence a strong sell to $63 per barrel. 4H TF: Expecting a market correction on the triangle formed between 14th and 19th October. During the NY session on 19th October, there was a breakout on the 4H candle. This guides the market sentiment for a buy clause activaion to fill the spots in the triangle's formation. 2H TF: EMA 8 and 50, guides the 2H candle for a perfect entry at $84.930 for a bull run. XTIUSd is currently in the rejection zone after taking some demand around 483 per barrel (Yellow Box), we see a clear rejection at the demand zone as shown above. 1H TF: my execution on XTIUSD
XLong
by DAdepa
Are You Seeing What I'm Seeing?Hey trader, I hope you're having a profitable week ;) The price is currently running in the bearish H&S L2 as well as below the 50 and bearish crossed short-term MA's. Usually when the price is in a patterns L2, it drops (or rallies) for the L3 after closing with a reversal candle pattern or breaking and retesting the levels support/resistant. But for that to happen, the short-term MA's must be crossed in direction of the market maker patterns trend. So in this situation, both the pattern and MA's are supporting a bearish trend. But it may not occur. The price will reject the drop after it has bullish broke and retested the 3rd Monthly Key and 8 MA or the first trades stop loss key level. With that said, enter these trades at your own risk! That's it for today. I hope you found value in this article. If you have a different concept in mind, feel free to share it in the comments section, I'd love to know your thoughts! Stay Blessed Baby, Sphatrades.
TVC:USOILShort
by Doji-2k1
Crude oil Short Term BearishThe idea here is about crude oil. I am short term bearish on crude oil due to following observation. 1. Cypher harmonic pattern completed on daily chart. The Cypher harmonic pattern is a technical analysis formation indicating a price-action reversal. The Cypher pattern, which can be either bullish or bearish, has five points (X, A, B, C, and D) and four legs (XA, AB, BC, and CD). Like any other harmonic pattern, the theory behind the Cypher chart pattern is that there is a strong correlation between Fibonacci ratios and price movements. The Cypher harmonic pattern has been historically proven to be a fairly reliable and accurate chart pattern. According to various studies, the pattern has an accuracy rate of around 70%. 2.Stochastic Oscillator The intersection of two lines is considered to be a signal that a reversal may be in the works, as it indicates a large shift in momentum from day to day. 3.Bollinger Bands 20 day moving average, bands at 2 standard deviations Looking at the lower band for profit target. 4.On-balance volume (OBV) OBV shows crowd sentiment that can predict a bullish or bearish outcome. OBV is on continuous decline. Last but not least 5. MA 200 over 50 aka Death cross 02 September 2022. The price was $95.23 Previous cross happened on 02 September 2020 MA 50 over 200 aka Golden cross The price was $41.40 I am aware that it is little late for the analysis, but i feel there is more to come. That's what they say "Something is better than nothing". Looking forward... The above is an Educational idea only and not any kind of financial or investment advice. So please do your own DD (Due Diligence) before any kind of investment. Do leave your valuable feedback & comments for any improvisations.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDEShort
by ShoibShafi
Phase 3 For OIL PirceThis is the seconded biggest update for oil this month ! You need a big pocket to go with the flow on this one, money management will be your biggest enemy and greed your second. We have 85$ is the mid road for oil and 120$ the highest it can get ! Target Is 68$ for our next idea and politics is our enemy ! i recommend to open a position after an update or after the correction ! (WE can see 90$ before a drop) Don't be greedy or you will swim in red and cry a river of poorness ! This an update to help you see the path only, I don't recommend anything For Low And greedy People (75% Loser - 25% Winner) : SL : 88$ ------------------------- Tp1 : 78$ Tp2 : 77$ Long Term And Big pocket user + Low Risk : SL1 : 88$ SL2 : 112$ ------------------------ TP1 : 75$ TP2 : 64$
FX:USOILShort
by UnknownUnicorn2830187
3