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OIL: Contrarian setup aheadEverybody knows that oil is heading to the moon. In recent days, I've heard numerous estimates like $150. However, I think those estimates may be based on panic. Contrarians dare to be wrong, in the face of crowd sentiment - obviously. Everybody can see the same thing on the chart - a well formed rising broadening wedge in a bull market. Expand the chart a bit for a better view. This presents a good probability of bearishness, though price is moving north. For this sort of picture there is an estimated >70% chance of a reversal. What that means is that there is a 30% chance that price will reach the moon. But what traders want is a solid prediction - which I do not do, because I have no ownership of the future. Price doesn't have to get over 90. There is no rule that says wedges have to be 100% complete. But the pattern is sufficiently well formed once there are 3 important points on the upper and lower edges of the wedge. So - in the above I am not saying that 'oil can't go to the moon'. I'm saying there is a lesser probability of that. The red faded line is only to give a picture of what could happen. A line going to the moon would not fit on the chart. 😲😁 I'll be keeping my powder dry, whilst some punch the air. Not a problem. Disclaimer: This is not advice or encouragement to trade securities or any asset class. This is not investment advice. Chart positions shown are not suggestions intended to assure you of an advantage. No predictions and no guarantees are supplied or implied. The author trades mostly trend following set ups which have a low win rate of approximately 40%. Heavy losses can be expected if trading live accounts or investing in any asset class. Any previous advantageous performance shown in other scenarios, is not indicative of future performance. If you make decisions based on opinion expressed here or on my profile and you lose your money, kindly sue yourself.
O
by Captain_Walker
2
Which target do we look at for Brent ? According to Ichimoku, we're definitely bullish on long term. Prices are perfectly supported by Daily Tenkan during their ascent. With a Fibonacci Extension, I think that $92 is a probable target to look at. If this one breaks, we could look at the 1.618 Extension, at $109.9. Will depend on the evolution of the situation in Ukraine. A possible fundamental bearish news could be that the de-escalation leads to a decrease in the attractiveness of black gold and produces a pull-back in prices, towards the Kijun Daily as first support. What do you think friends ?
TVC:UKOIL
by Augustus1st
Triangle on WTI, Short on breakdownTriangle formation on short time frame, look for short entry Key Levels : 81.2 - 81.8 - we might see significant support in this zone Observations : 1 - Trendline support is drawn based on more short term basis and I think is more validated than most I've seen posted here as there has been numerous bounce from it as indicated in the chart 2 - Current formation for a catalyst pattern on breakout is support by trendline parallel to said trendline in point 1 3 - There might be a formation for a ascending triangle / rising wedge / parallel action in the pattern as indicated in the red box Trade plan : 1 - I prefer to look for shorts entry here, but there is a small possibility for prices to return to trend based on a break up on a symmetrical triangle that has formed. But the current formation favors shorts 2 - I will not enter short here because it can form either a ascending triangle which is preferable or a rising wedge and parallel channel which is less desirable as there's more room for prices to increase 3 - Once entered, will target 81.2 - 81.8 for take profit Will update accordingly
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by ng4312
Brent crude oil ATTACKING 106 USD LONGMorgan Stanley Jumps On The $100 Oil Bandwagon Morgan Stanley expects oil prices to hit $100 per barrel in the second half of the year, becoming the latest major Wall Street bank to expect triple-digit oil prices by the end of 2022. The oil market is headed to a “triple deficit” of low inventories, low spare production capacity, and low investment, Morgan Stanley said in a note carried by Reuters. The bank now expects oil at $100 in the third and fourth quarters of this year, lifting its previous Q3 and Q4 forecasts from $90 and $87.50 a barrel, respectively. “The key oil products markets (gasoline, jet fuel, and gasoil/diesel) all show strong crack spreads, steep backwardation, and inventories that have fallen to low levels. None of this signals weakness,” Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in the note. The bank is the latest investment institution to predict that oil is headed to triple-digit territory as soon as this year, amid resilient demand, falling inventories, and declining spare capacity at OPEC+ as the group ramps up production. Triple-digit oil “is in the works” for the second quarter this year, Francisco Blanch, head of global commodities at Bank of America, told Bloomberg last week. Demand is recovering meaningfully, while OPEC+ supply will start leveling off within the next two months, Blanch said, noting that it will be only Saudi Arabia and the UAE that can produce incremental barrels to add to the market. Related: How Realistic Are Libya’s 2022 Oil Production Goals? Oil prices could hit $100 this year and rise to $105 per barrel in 2023, on the back of a “surprisingly large deficit” due to the milder and potentially briefer impact of Omicron on oil demand, Goldman Sachs said this week. Due to gas-to-oil substitution, supply disappointments, and stronger-than-expected demand in Q4 2021, OECD inventories are set to dip by the summer to their lowest levels since 2000, Goldman’s analysts note. Moreover, OPEC+ spare capacity is also set to decline to historically low levels of around 1.2 million bpd. “At $85/ bbl , the market would remain at such critical levels, insufficient buffers relative to demand and supply volatilities, through 2023,” Goldman -Sachs said in a note. JP Morgan, for its part, expects the falling spare capacity at OPEC+ to increase the risk premium in prices, and sees oil hitting $125 a barrel this year and $150 a barrel next year.
OANDA:BCOUSDLong
by DaveBrascoFX
1
Crude Prices Are Back to 2014Crude prices continue to rally as Brent crude benchmark prices rose to $89.04 per barrel on Wednesday, almost erasing the plunge of crude prices since 2014.  Crude prices rose after Yemen's Houthi group attacked the United Arab Emirates rising fears over further supply tightening. The attack further escalated hostilities between the Iran-aligned group and a Saudi Arabian-led coalition. Many analysts are upgrading their forecast for crude prices. Goldman Sachs expects Brent cured prices to hit $100 per barrel in the third quarter of 2022. Oil producers are lagging behind to satisfy the increasing demand, which also support prices. If we look at crude prices 7-8 years ago, we may see a strong resistance at $94.50-95 per barrel and there are no significant resistance levels before that. U.S. crude inventories traditionally published on Wednesday this week will be released on Thursday as the United States celebrated Martin Luther King Day this Monday. According to the forecast crude inventories may fall by 1.367 million barrels on the previous week making it the eights in a row in terms of falling crude inventories.  Technically speaking the existing upward trend that started December 20 last year has a very steep angle that may mean an easier change of the trend. The support level for crude prices is within $86.40-86.50 per barrel area, and since prices are above this level the upside movement has the upper hand.However, we may soon see a slight correction of Brent crude prices to the $86.40-86.70 area, where the recent October 2020 peak is located. Traders should be cautious to open any buy operations close to the new highs at the markets is seen overheated. To open buy positions it would be wise to use any corrections to the strong support levels.
OLong
by scavoanastasiia
Oil Update and news 17/1/2022Hello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :) _________________________________Make sure to Like and Follow if you like the idea_________________________________ Oil prices surged on Monday, with Brent futures reaching their highest level in more than three years, as investors anticipated supply will remain tight due to limited output by major producers and unaffected global demand by the Omicron coronavirus variety. Brent crude futures rose 40 cents, or 0.5%, to $86.46 a barrel. Earlier in the session, the contract reached a high of $86.71 for the first time since Oct. 3, 2018. Daily Support & Resistance points for Brent : support Resistance 1) 86.46 1) 86.83 2) 86.26 2) 87.00 3) 86.09 3) 87.20 West Texas Intermediate crude in the United States was up 58 cents, or 0.7 percent, at $84.40 a barrel after reaching $84.78, the highest since Nov. 10, 2021, earlier in the day. Daily Support & Resistance points for WTI : support Resistance 1) 84.31 1) 84.59 2) 84.15 2) 84.71 3) 84.03 3) 84.87 The gains came on the heels of a rally last week in which Brent rose more than 5% and WTI rose more than 6%. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia, and their allies, known collectively as OPEC+, are progressively lifting output cuts imposed when demand dropped in 2020. However, many smaller producers are unable to increase output, and others are hesitant of pumping too much oil in case of further COVID-19 difficulties. Two US officials and two industry sources told Reuters on Friday that the US administration has held talks with numerous multinational energy corporations about contingency plans for exporting natural gas to Europe if Russia-Ukraine violence damages Russian supplies. Meanwhile, crude oil inventories in the United States declined more than predicted to their lowest level since October 2018, but gasoline inventories increased due to sluggish demand, according to the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from Fundamental Analysts and News for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice. If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !! Thank you for reading.
TVC:USOIL
by GabiDahduh
Oil is headed towards 85 levelOil is headed towards 85 level. Many analysts are predicting lower oil demand due to Omnicron variant but the impact is yet to be seen. We cannot expect the price crash similar to 2020 because there were no vaccines at that time and complete lock downs are very unlikely. Hence, do not wait to see the negative oil prices ;-) We use Aspen Trading Support & Resistance Levels to risk manage our positions. These levels are invite only and can be accessed through url in my profile information. Disclaimer: This analysis is for information purpose only and does not constitute any investment advice.
FX:USOILLong
by tradingswift
1
Oil Market Continues on the UpsideOil prices are rising for the fourth consecutive week as Brent crude benchmark prices rose to $83.77 per barrel. The technical picture suggests a further climb of prices which may be pushed by the following factors: 1. Brent crude prices returned to the upward trend that began in April 2020. Prices were below the support level of the trend during the last days of November 2021, but they managed to return above the trend line. 2. Commercial crude stocks in the United States are declining for the seventh consecutive week. According to the American Petroleum Institute (API) crude stocks were down by 1.077 million barrels last week after plummeting by 6.432 million a week before. Official information from the Energy Information Administration (EIA) that will be published on Wednesday may suggest that crude inventories will decline by 1.904 million barrels. Analysts surveyed by Global Platts on average expect crude inventories down by 1.6 million barrels. 3. Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell said that the Fed could tame inflation without undermining economic growth. The closest resistance for Brent crude prices is at $85-85.30 per barrel with the stronger resistance at $86.70 that was recorded in October 2021. The upside which started on December 20, 2021, is strong, and we may expect Brent crude prices to move to this level. But the overall picture may change if prices slide below the trend line at $81.70-82.00. So, long positions in crude could be seen to be justified if prices go above $81.70 per barrel. Several large investment banks share the “bullish” perspective for crude. Morgan Stanley expects Brent crude prices to reach $90 per barrel by the Q3 2022.
OLong
by scavoanastasiia
CRUDE OIL (WTI) Technical Outlook & Swing Analysis 🛢 Hey traders, WTI Oil keeps trading in a global bullish trend. On a weekly time frame, the price formed an expanding bullish triangle setting the equal lows around 62.0 level and setting the higher highs respecting a major rising trend line. I will expect a bullish continuation within the boundaries of the triangle. I believe that quite soon the price will reach 84.0 level and with a high probability will go higher to 91.0 - 96.0 resistance cluster. ❤️Please, support this idea with like and comment!❤️
TVC:USOILLong
by VasilyTrader
29
Royal Dutch Shell - Selling into the gap for more downsideRoyal Dutch Shell 'A' - Short Term - We look to Sell at 19.49 (stop at 20.37) Short term momentum is bearish. This is negative for short term sentiment and we look to set shorts at good risk/reward levels for a further correction lower. We have a Gap open at 19.49 from 25/11/2021 to 26/11/2021. We expect a move lower in a corrective sequence, targeting Fibonacci retracement levels. Preferred trade is to sell into rallies. Expect trading to remain mixed and volatile. Our profit targets will be 16.84 and 16.00 Resistance: 19.49 / 20.30 / 21.15 Support: 18.14 / 17.80 / 16.82 Disclaimer – Saxo Bank Group. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis, like any and all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site (including those from Signal Centre) are for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Such technical analysis are believed to be obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but not warrant their respective completeness or accuracy, or warrant any results from the use of the information. Your use of the technical analysis, as would also your use of any and all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features. Please also be reminded that if despite the above, any of the said technical analysis (or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/through this site) is found to be advisory or a recommendation; and not merely informational in nature, the same is in any event provided with the intention of being for general circulation and availability only. As such it is not intended to and does not form part of any offer or recommendation directed at you specifically, or have any regard to the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of yourself or any other specific person. Before committing toa trade or investment therefore, please seek advice from a financial or other professional adviser regarding the suitability of the product for you and (where available) read the relevant product offer/description documents, including the risk disclosures. If you do not wish to seek such financial advice, please still exercise your mind and consider carefully whether the product is suitable for you because you alone remain responsible for your trading – both gains and losses.
RShort
by Saxo
1
Oil Update for 3/1/2022Hello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :) _________________________________Make sure to Like and Follow if you like the idea_________________________________ Oil prices rose on Monday as the market began 2022 on a bullish note, with suppliers in the spotlight ahead of Tuesday's OPEC+ meeting, but rising COVID-19 cases dampening demand optimism. Brent crude was up 59 cents, or 0.76 %, to $78.37 per barrel. West Texas Intermediate oil futures in the United States rose 63 cents, or 0.84 %, to $75.84 per barrel. "Tightened Libyan supply ahead of an Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Allies (OPEC+) meeting maintained market sentiments upbeat," said Abhishek Chauhan, head of commodities at Swastika Investmart Ltd. Libya's official oil company announced on Saturday that owing to maintenance on a critical pipeline connecting the Samah and Dahra fields, the country's oil output would be reduced by 200,000 barrels per day for a week. Meanwhile, four sources predict that OPEC+ will maintain to its plan of adding 400,000 barrels per day of supply in February. Oil prices surged about 50% last year, fueled by the global economic rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic depression and production restraint, even as infections hit all-time highs around the world. US crude is expected to average $71.38 a barrel in 2022, up from $73.31 in the previous month's consensus. Oil and natural gas rigs were installed in the United States for the 17th month in a row, as rising prices enticed some drillers back to the wellpad following last year's coronavirus-driven decrease in demand. As shown in a monthly report released on Thursday by the Energy Information Administration, U.S. crude oil production increased to 11.47 million barrels per day in October, up 6% from the previous month, as output climbed in the Gulf of Mexico as the region recovered from storms. This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from Fundamental Analysts and News for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice. If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !! Thank you for reading.
TVC:USOIL
by GabiDahduh
OIL: Huge Head & ShouldersWow! Could this be the right shoulders forming on OIL? The remaining imbalance is being filled and we are creeping up into the main supply, if we see rejections, we could have a bearish move all the way down into the equal lows. Traders, if you have your own opinion about this idea, write in the comments section, I always reply. RISK DISCLAIMER: Trading Crypto, Futures, Forex, CFDs, and Stocks involves a risk of loss. Please consider carefully if such trading is appropriate for you. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Always limit your leverage and use a tight stop loss. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe, and share this idea with others! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FOREXCOM:USOILShort
by AlkalineFX
2
OPEC+ Decision Put in the BottomThe CDC first designated Omicron as a Variant of Concern on December 1, but crude oil bottomed on December 2 when OPEC+ made its output decision.OPEC+ Decision Shifted Momentum to Upside, Not Easing of Omicron Fears So what happened on December 2 to turn crude oil prices higher? OPEC+ agreed to go ahead with oil output increase. It didn’t cave into U.S. pressure to accelerate daily production, it stuck with its plans for a 400,000 barrel per day rise. Fearing another supply glut, sources said the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Russia and allies, known as OPEC+, considered a range of options in talks on December 2, including pausing their January hike of 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) or increasing output by less than the monthly plan, according to Reuters.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by DaveBrascoFX