Slippery When Wet......Just like my girlfriend after i tell her i have made £100,000 this week trading.
76 is such a key phycological level for oil, as you can see it has been used so many times as support and resistance before and take in to note this is the monthly timeframe this makes it about as strong as it can get!
I can personally see price dropping from this 76 level, if price does drop then my next level of possible support would be 63 as shown on the chart, this also has been used as strong support and resistance in the past. The reason i think price will drop is because i can see more lockdowns coming, this will lead to nobody travelling in cars or going on holiday so there will be no need for aeroplane travel, this will lead to less demand for fuel so price will drop.
You always have to look on the other side and see what would happen if price breaks 76, If this happens then my next possible resistance level is marked on the chart at 86, for the same reasons as all the other levels it has been used as strong support and resistance before.
Let me know your thoughts, do you think we will be getting more lockdowns?
Cheers.
Oilprice
UKOIL monthly technical analysis !TVC:UKOIL
Hi everyone , I hope you're all fine .
- UKOIL has recently broke downtrend and also the price had a pullback to the broken trendline
- Also the price is is moving in a ascending channel
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the next resistances would be :
1- 86.70 (which is the top of channel and also last resistance
2- 116.00 (which is a nice resistance with 4 touches since 2012 and 2016 until now
now let's see some fundamental info about OIL :
- US crude inventories fell more than expected last week, hitting a three-year low, according to the US Petroleum Institute and the US Energy Information Administration. The upward trend in natural gas is likely to lead to increased demand for black gold.
This year, crude oil has grown by more than 80 percent since the beginning of the year, as the global economic recovery from the Corona outbreak significantly boosted demand. On the supply side, OPEC Plus members are also gradually reducing their production restrictions.
In addition, Hurricanes Ida and Nicholas affected production in the United States. The Gulf of Mexico was hit hard in late August (early September) and September (early October), respectively.
Given the imminence of the fourth quarter and the winter season in the Northern Hemisphere, some investors predict a continued upward trend in prices.
The Goldman Sachs Group (NYSE: GS) said the market deficit was higher than expected, raising Brent oil forecast from $ 10 to $ 90 a barrel at the end of the year .
Source : Investing.com
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so what's your opinion guys ??
we'd be glad to see your idea in comments .
24th Sep 2021: OIL Price Will Drop To $50.60 Prediction50/60 is the next prediction number.
50.60 is the new number lottery price.
The 50/60 agenda is just about to begin with from the oil.
This will take time. This is not just one day work.
Agenda and cards has been planned on the oil production company.
There will be an event will about to occur between middle party.
50/60 is a clash.
My prediction towards after the pass successful prediction on Putin President to $42.00 per barrel will end its trend.
It is a second chapter.
We will might dont want to hear any hard agenda will be going on towards the Q4.
We will see the secondary reset of the century.
Lots of crash and clash will about to occur.
Keep this number and mind and stay towards the prediction.
Zezu Zaza
2048
OIL Breaking out of the bull flag or another fakeout?Hello and welcome to my post !
OIL is still in a strong uptrend and we are just breaking out from a bullflag.
We are getting strong resistances from EMA100 and MA200.
Something worth mentioning is the purple boxes on the chart, they are indicating previously fake out areas, a think that might happen if the price action dosent break the previously mentioned resistances.
If we continue from here the break of the bull flag strongly the target is 72$.
Indicators: The combination of the overbought SRSI and the mid level RSI suggest a strong momentum for the bulls.
Don't forget to protect yourself with proper Risk Management.
Information provided is only educational and should not be used to take action in the market !
Feel free to ask anything in the comments or send me a message !
Thank you for reading my post,if you liked the idea you can support with a like and a follow have a great day !
Crude Trend analysisDue to a supply scarcity, rising gas and coal prices are gradually driving utilities to convert from gas and coal to fuel oil. Oil-fired power stations have started up in Sweden. Oil demand will be boosted further by the United States' announcement that the travel ban for fully immunized international visitors would be abolished in November. This could result in a big recovery in jet fuel consumption by the end of the year. "US oil producers are battling to regain output, "The Mars and Ursa platforms in the Gulf of Mexico will be shut down until the end of2021, according to Royal Dutch Shell. According to Bloomberg projections, this would cut supplies by about 300,000 barrels."
OIL TRADE IDEA UPDATELast week, oil failed to break through the $67.63 support level and rallied back, retesting the trendline.
So the trade plan for next week is to hold the buy position from the previous week and see if oil can break over the trendline. (Please review the prior trade idea to get a better picture of what I'm talking about.)
Breakout of the trendline might push oil to the next level of resistance at $72.66.
My trading strategy isn't intended to be used as a signal service. It's a process of gaining knowledge of market structure and improving my trading abilities.
Like and subscribe and happy trading to all
The FlipThought of this as I saw the further-out Dec'22 & Jun'22 6-months spread flipping through the closer Jun'22 & Dec'21 ; the historical examples are given in the chart in green circles.
Seems like oil is looking higher from here as per the indication of the attached chart.
Let us see how this unravels.
USOIL a possible breakout soon Hello everyone, as we all know the market action discounts everything :)
_________________________________Make sure to Like and Follow if you like the idea_________________________________
The Crude Oil market has shown itself to be resilient as we had initially pulled back but now are turning around to show signs of life again.
In the last 2 weeks, the market has been moving sideways between a Resistance located between 70.40 - 71.04 and a Support of 68.27 - 66.79.
The price has increased from the last drop that happened last month in August by 15% where the market was trading near the 61$ range.
Could this movement be the start of a Bearish long-term trend ??
Notice on the chart that for the last couple of months we've been having lower Tops and lower Bottoms, So if we look at the big picture of the market right now it seems that the market is having a corrective wave at the moment but a certain drop will most likely happen soon.
But Technical Analysis shows that the market is still in a Bullish state.
Possible Scenarios for the market :
Scenario 1 :
The market is having its corrective wave right now and trading near the resistance zone extended from 70.40 - 71.04, If the Bulls were able to group up and gather their power then we might see a breakout happening in that zone which could lead the market back up to the 73.84 resistance level.
The market has formed 3 Outside up candlestick pattern (Strong Bullish Sign).
Scenario 2 :
Looking at the chart we notice that we are having some kind of a Bearish trend (It Could be Small it Could be BIg) and the price has reached the edge of the resistance zone, which could indicate that the bounce down from that zone will happen and it will drop the price to the 68.27 Level, Where the support zone start. A battle will happen between the Bulls and Bears and the Bears will win if it turns out that the bearish move is big, and a further drop will happen which could lead the market back to the 60$ level in the next 2 months.
Technical indicators show :
1) The market is above the 5 10 20 50 100 and 200 MA and EMA (Strong Bullish sign)
2) The RSI is at 56.00 showing strength in the market. No divergences were found between the indicator and the market.
3) The MACD is above the 0 line which indicates that the market is in a Bullish state, With a positive crossover between the MACD line and the Signal line.
Daily Support and Resistance :
support Resistance
1) 69.76 1) 70.40
2) 69.35 2) 70.63
3) 69.12 3) 71.04
Weekly Support and Resistance :
support Resistance
1) 68.27 1) 70.63
2) 66.79 2) 71.51
3) 65.91 3) 72.99
Fundamental point of view :
At the beginning of the week, OPEC ( Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries ) will release the latest monthly oil market report. WTI crude oil prices have been weakening since July. This comes amid concerns about the global growth outlook as the Covid Delta variant has been sapping demand woes. US retail sales may also stir volatility, especially if Covid shows increasing signs of making its way into the economy.
Earlier this week OPEC decided to increase output by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) for the month of October, in line with its gradual plan to reintroduce supply into international markets after drastically withdrawing supply at the start of the pandemic. According to Dailyfx
This is my personal opinion done with technical analysis of the market price and research online from fundamental analysts for The Fundamental point of view, not financial advice.
If you have any questions please ask and have a great day !!
Thank you for reading.
USOIL WTI Crude Oil Short, breach of a decade long pattern Oil has breached a 13 years long falling wedge.
I will be shorting until the 55/57 area, then switching to a long term buy that, in my opinion, could lead priced up to the 130 area. This would allow the big petroleum companies to sell their oil stocks at higher prices as they decrease production to switch to environmental friendly vehicles.
You can see that the pandemic created a spring that allowed smart money to accumulate positions at advantageous prices, around 0. We'll see a lot of strength after the trend-line has been retested.
Please like and consider following if you enjoyed the idea.
Peace.
TrickleDown FX
Analyzing RECAF and USOIL Recently, USOIL and RECAF have both taken a tumble. Named "The Hottest Oil Play in Decades," we surely have more to see from RECAF in 2021 and 2022.
As you can see, USOIL's candlestick progression is clearly notated by the dark grey line displaying price action on the front.
Experts predict USOIL to bottom around $55-60 USD. After that, experts predict OIL to stabilize around $65-80 USD levels. The ultimate top predicted is $100. This would lead to gas prices around $4/gallon for your Suburu's fill up. At around $2.50, we still have plenty of room to run. However, Biden's administration has asked for lower gas prices for now, as the economy continues to recover from COVID. Will the Oil Barons be able to produce more oil to lower gas prices, or will we see gas prices once again rising up? I wouldn't put it out the question.
ACTION PLAN:
Currently, RECAF is still in a bear pattern, though we still a slight uptick today as price actions grapples for the last few bites of the bear.
1. Can RECAF's stock price go down to the most favorable price target for longs, $1.80-3.50 USD? Formidable support levels lie here, protecting it from falling lower.
2. Or will we remain in a bottoming formation pattern around $4.75-5.25 USD? The median price is $6.20 USD and that may be met sooner or later.
Overall long price target for long-term holders: $12.81 USD
Feel free to write your thoughts in the comments as well.
Short Vision on OIL for 10/08/2021Hello Dear Traders,
You find below my analysis for OIL which is near in the sell zone. I expect the price to fall. According to my set of rules, in the M30 frame OIL will fall to 66.8 as I am showing in my chart. Our Daily Goal is 66.5.
Currently, OIL is moving towards the resistance level of 68 ,where there is some liquidity from this value we are looking for short-term selling opportunities of OIL.
Good Luck and enjoy your Bearish Market for today.
Entry:@ 68
TP1: @67.6
TP2: @67.3
TP3: @66.8
SL : @68.5
As mentioned on previous posting, we oscillate daily with the market based on Human Behavior and Sentiment.
Feel free to share your thoughts and opinions in the comment section below, I will be glad to discuss my friends!
Breaking: The OPEC report is issuedOPEC monthly report was issued a few minutes ago, and the report was not positive for OPEC+ and the oil-producing countries within the group, led by Saudi Arabia. OPEC kept its forecast for oil demand in 2021 unchanged at an increase of 6 million barrels per day, bringing the average to 96.6 million barrels per day, and also kept its forecast for the growth of oil demands in 2022 by 3.3 million barrels per day, bringing the average production to 99.86 million barrels per day.
While OPEC+ raised its expectations for an increase in the production of oil-producing countries outside the group by 840 thousand barrels per day, to reach an increase of 2.9 million barrels per day, with a total average of 66.9 million barrels per day in 2022.
It also raised its forecast for the production growth of oil-producing countries outside the group in 2021 by 270,000 barrels per day to reach 1.1 million barrels per day, with a total average of 64 million barrels per day.
Short Vision on OIL for 04/08/2021Hello Dear Traders,
You find below my analysis for OIL, which is near the buy zone. I expect the price to rise. According to my set of rules, in the M30 frame OIL will rise to 70. Our Weekly Goal is 71.3. So we are looking for a pullback to repeat what we have marked up and executed over the last few days, demand is still there. Simply looking to buy the dips effectively, the bullish trend still here since April 2020.
Currently, OIL is moving towards the support level of 68.3 where there is some liquidity, from this value we are looking for short-term buying opportunities of OIL.
Good Luck and enjoy your Bullish Market for today.
Entry:@68.25
TP1: @68.6
TP2: @68.9
TP3: @69.3
SL : @67.8
As mentioned on previous posting, we oscillate daily with the market based on Human Behavior and Sentiment.
Feel free to share your thoughts and opinions in the comment section below, I will be glad to discuss my friends!
Has Oil's uptrend come to an end?My short answer is no. Oil hasn't peaked yet in my opinion, although in the short term it might chop between 63-77$ before a big breakout. As OPEC+ has decided to increase production, we might slowly see the effects of that + there are some general deflationary pressures like new Covid strains and endless lockdowns that might push oil lower in the short term.
However in my opinion due to the ESG movement and the climate change proponents in general, the underinvestment in oil + forced production cuts due to protests might limit supply so much that if demand slowly increases the price of oil could skyrocket.
Technically Oil is still in an uptrend and its more than a decade long bear market has come to an end. Speculators were flushed out but oil has manage to hit some key levels which if broken might attract more speculative capital in the market. Above 77$, 90$ is a very easy target and we could see it go even to 100$+. In the short term if there is a panic across all markets and we get a strong dip everywhere, I think oil could get to 42-55$, which in my opinion would be an incredible opportunity.
Oil around 50$ is ok for allowing for more global growth, but it is also signaling slow growth. Low oil prices could translate in lower bond yields which would mean deflation which would allow the status quo to remain.