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Oilprice

Oil baby, common you can do it! Do it!FA: Historically, when the Fed rate is lowered in the U.S., there is one very simple pattern - the collapse of commodities! Of course, there are nuances related to the rate of downgrade.... Prices do not start falling at once... most often there is a time lag from 2-3 months to 8 months. It is important to understand the following... The USA controls oil prices (directly or indirectly - but the fact remains). Oil reserves in the states are low but last report showed very nice numbers (actual -0.8M vs forecast -2.7M) Now catch the train of thought: US will start a cycle of rate cuts- US has more than enough oil reserves - historically rate cuts are a drop in oil prices TA: After aggressive movement till 4h gap, price went down as expected with first MS, then price went up to test BTS zone and made second shift (BoS) and came into bullish 4h fvg. Now there are 3 options: 1 - move higher till 4h fvg into premium , rebalance and final move till EQL at 71.4$ area 2 - fail 73.3 area from market opening with potential move downwards till EQL 3 - Breaking above 4h FVG with target at 77.55$, this option can be considered only after closing above 4h fvg on 1h+ time frame with candle's body
TVC:USOIL
by Almenio
OIL Short - Wouldn't it be funny?I mean... expect the unexpected right? Monday seems to have topped out the whole move while wednesday could be a potential conitnuation. Where would be the biggest pain point for longs? PS: Prepare yourself to work with broader SL here, $78 is as well in play. But I like this current situation since I know that the majority is obviously long cause of our daily world drama and it just doesn't make sense to anybody that Oil could suddenly drop again?!
TVC:USOILShort
by Psytropy
1
Oil in high timeframe Hello traders, I 've identified a potential buying opportunity based on the daily timeframe. Here's a summary of my insights: * **Inducement Zone:** Oil has reached the inducement zone around $72.50 on the daily timeframe. * **Liquidity Sweep:** The price has swept the liquidity below the trendline, suggesting a potential shift in momentum. * **Strong Buy Signals:** The price action is showing strong signals to move higher, indicating a good opportunity for a low-risk buy. * **Critical Zones:** I 've identified key resistance levels at $74, $80, and $84, which can help guide my targets and risk management. Here are some additional points to consider: * **Confirmation:** Look for confirmation from other technical indicators, such as volume, momentum, or candlestick patterns, to reinforce your analysis. * **Risk Management:** Implement appropriate risk management strategies, including stop-loss orders, to protect your capital. * **Market Dynamics:** Stay updated on any news or events that could impact the price of oil, such as geopolitical tensions, changes in supply and demand, or economic data releases. Remember, trading always involves risk. Conduct thorough research, make informed decisions, and adapt your strategies as needed. Good luck with your trades!
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by somayehbasiri
Can USOIL, which has surged due to geopolitical concerns, contin Due to the expanding armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, supply instability has surged in the crude oil market. Oil prices shot up by 3% in a single day due to temporary halts in oil production caused by political risks in Libya. While geopolitical risks have not significantly impacted oil prices in recent weeks, escalating tensions will likely influence future movements. In particular, the suspension of oil production in Libya, a major exporter of about 1 million barrels per day, could substantially impact the oil market. USOIL has experienced a significant surge, breaking through the 76.50 level. Additionally, the EMA21 is about to golden-cross the EMA78, indicating a strong bullish signal. In addition, the formation of a double-bottom pattern clearly shows a positive future price outlook for USOIL. If USOIL continues its current uptrend and breaks the 77.50 resistance, the price may gain upward momentum toward the 79.00 level. Conversely, if USOIL breaks the 75.00 threshold, the price could fall further toward the 74.20 support level.
TVC:USOIL
by inkicho_exness
Oil Prices Slip as Gaza Talks and China Worries WeighOil prices edged lower at the start of the week, as traders weighed the potential impact of ongoing Middle East tensions and softening demand from China. Brent crude, the global benchmark, dipped towards $79 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) hovered around $76. The recent decline follows a turbulent week for oil markets, marked by significant volatility. Prices had shed nearly 2% on Friday as investors grappled with concerns over China's economic recovery and the potential implications for global oil demand. The world's second-largest economy has shown signs of weakness, with data indicating a slowdown in industrial activity and consumer spending. This has raised doubts about China's ability to drive oil consumption growth. Meanwhile, the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip continues to cast a shadow over the energy market. While diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire have intensified, the situation remains volatile, and the potential for disruptions to oil supplies in the region cannot be ruled out. The geopolitical risk premium, which has supported oil prices in recent months, could diminish if a ceasefire is achieved. Analysts caution that the oil market is likely to remain volatile in the near term, as traders navigate a complex interplay of factors. On one hand, the potential for supply disruptions due to geopolitical tensions could underpin prices. On the other hand, weakening global economic growth and efforts to transition to cleaner energy sources could exert downward pressure. Looking ahead, investors will be closely monitoring developments in the Middle East, as well as economic indicators from China and other major economies. Any escalation of the conflict or further signs of weakness in the Chinese economy could lead to renewed volatility in the oil market. Ultimately, the price of oil will depend on the balance between supply and demand. While the market has experienced periods of tightness in recent months, concerns about slowing demand growth may start to weigh on prices if they materialize.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by bryandowningqln
OILUSD/H4 WTI oil fluctuates in the stable range of $70 - $80.OILUSD forecast on August 13, 2024: WTI oil is under pressure from the war and DXY is decreasing. Currently, the oil price has risen from the $71 region back to the $80 area. It is likely that oil will experience a correction before continuing its upward trend. The trading trend today is BUY. Key levels to watch are: 76.5, 78, 80, and 82. Recommended orders: Plan 1: BUY OILUSD zone 76-76.5 SL 75.5 TP 78 - 80 - 81. Plan 2: BUY OILUSD zone 77.60 - 78.10 SL 77.20 TP 79 - 80 - 81. Plan 3: SELL OILUSD zone 83.30 - 83.50 SL 83.80 TP 82 - 81 - 78.
NYMEX:CL1!
by wetdyerap
WTI Oil - 4HWTI oil completed its second bullish leg and has now formed a reversal setup. The price action shows that WTI missed the ascending channel support and is currently consolidating below the previous support zone, which has now turned into a resistance level. This suggests a potential bearish outlook as the price struggles to regain upward momentum. With the recent break of the ascending channel, it is expected that WTI may continue its downward trajectory. The consolidation under the new resistance zone indicates seller strength, and further declines could be seen if the price fails to break back above this resistance. Traders should watch for key support levels around $81 and $78 for potential buy signals or continuation of the bearish trend.
BLACKBULL:WTIShort
by Sober_Trading
July 15 WTI crude oil trading strategy July 15 WTI crude oil trading strategy I give several safe trading areas: Sell: 83.5-83.7 (I sold at this price last week and made a big profit. I will continue to try to sell here this week) 84.2-84.55 (suitable for selling, sl84.8) Buy: 81.5-81.6 (scalping profit) 81.-81.2 (sl 80.68) 79.95-81.2 (can hold and get more than 80-160pips profit) Trading according to these indicators can make you a safe profit. If you use my signal to make a profit. Please join me and give me a thumbs up
TVC:USOILLong
by MaudEvans
Slow Monday? Crude OilSo we took some Daily BSL last week on Friday and since we have sold off slowly. NWOG gapped down and this indicates for at least today some sort of Raid or hunt to also touch a PD array thats near to a discount. We have no major news catalyst today and that brings slow PA although it may travel its not ideal for scalpers. ( Lots of back and forth ) Wednesday and Thursday have crucial Crude Oil news events and these will be the optimum days to trade. For Today I am bearish until we reach these targets and or a htf Market structure shift. Be prepared to stay dynamic.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by IamThattrader
Oil Prices Climb on Inventory DrawdownOil prices edged higher on July 3rd, 2024, buoyed by signs of a significant decline in U.S. crude oil stockpiles. Brent crude, the benchmark for international oil prices, for September settlement rose 0.1% to $86.34 a barrel by 10:21 AM in London. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. oil benchmark for August delivery, inched up to $82.88 a barrel. This price increase comes amidst a wider risk-on sentiment in the global financial markets. Equity markets, including the S&P 500, have been reaching record highs, and this optimism appears to be spilling over into the oil market. Inventory Drawdown: A Cause for Optimism The primary driver behind the oil price increase is a report from the American Petroleum Institute (API) indicating a substantial drawdown in U.S. crude oil inventories. According to sources familiar with the data, crude inventories fell by a significant 9.2 million barrels last week. If confirmed by the official figures released by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) later this week, this would mark the largest single-week decline in stockpiles since January 2024. A decline in stockpiles indicates a tightening of supply, which can lead to higher prices. This is because crude oil is a fungible commodity, meaning a barrel of oil from one source is generally equivalent to a barrel from another. So, if stockpiles decline in the United States, it can impact global supply and drive prices up. Geopolitical Tensions and Summer Driving Season Lend Support Apart from the inventory drawdown, several other factors are contributing to the current oil price rally. Geopolitical tensions remain elevated around the world, particularly in the Middle East. The ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah, along with potential upcoming elections in France and the UK, are keeping investors on edge. Disruptions to oil supplies from these regions could significantly impact prices. Summer is typically a season of increased demand for gasoline due to vacation travel. While the API report also indicated a decline in gasoline stockpiles, concerns linger about weak U.S. gasoline demand, which could temper the current price uptick. Looking Ahead: Factors to Consider The oil market remains susceptible to several factors that could influence prices in the coming weeks and months. Here are some key elements to keep an eye on: • Confirmation of API Inventory Data: Official confirmation from the EIA regarding the inventory drawdown will be crucial. If the data is validated, it will solidify the current bullish sentiment in the market. • Global Economic Growth: The health of the global economy, particularly major oil-consuming countries like China, will significantly impact demand. A strong global economic recovery will likely lead to higher oil demand and consequently, higher prices. • The Upcoming Hurricane Season: The Atlantic hurricane season officially began on June 1st, 2024. If major hurricanes disrupt oil production facilities or shipping routes in the Gulf of Mexico, it could lead to price spikes. • Geopolitical Developments: Any escalation of geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions like the Middle East could lead to supply disruptions and price increases. Overall, the recent oil price increase is a result of a confluence of factors, including a potential decline in U.S. crude oil inventories, a risk-on sentiment in the financial markets, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. While some headwinds exist, such as concerns about weak U.S. gasoline demand, the near-term outlook for oil prices appears cautiously optimistic. In conclusion, the oil market is currently in a state of flux. While several factors currently support higher prices, the path forward remains uncertain. Close monitoring of inventory data, global economic indicators, geopolitical developments, and the Atlantic hurricane season will be crucial for understanding how oil prices will behave in the coming months.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by bryandowningqln
Canadian Dollar Struggles Despite Oil SurgeUSDCAD – technical overview Above 1.3000 signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area. R2 1.3847 – 16 April/2024 high – Strong R1 1.3792 – 11 June high – Medium S1 1.3615 – 25 June low – Medium S2 1.3586 – 10 May low – Strong USDCAD – fundamental overview The Canadian Dollar wasn't impressed at all with a surge in the price of oil, instead getting hit hard on Monday after Stats Canada said growth faded in May. The market has been pushing more towards a Bank of Canada rate cut and this has been weighing on the Canadian Dollar. Key standouts on Tuesday’s calendar come from Eurozone inflation and unemployment, Canada manufacturing PMIs, a Fed Chair Powell speech, and US JOLTs job openings. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
WTI Crude Oil - 4H Still BullishWTI Crude Oil shows promising bullish momentum as it consolidates above a key static support zone, indicating potential for further gains. The price action demonstrates two major bullish legs, with the current position in the middle of the second major leg, suggesting continued upward movement. Additionally, the presence of a second minor leg forming suggests that the bullish momentum might lead to a breakout, propelling prices to higher targets. Traders should monitor the minor leg’s completion and potential further advances in the price of oil, taking advantage of the bullish trend.
TVC:USOILLong
by Sober_Trading
Brent Crude Surges in June But Chart Pattern Raises ConcernsBrent Crude Surges in June as Inventory Draw Tightens Market, But Chart Pattern Raises Concerns Brent crude oil prices experienced a significant rally in June 2024, rising 5% over the month. This increase adds to a positive trend for the year so far, with Brent crude accumulating a total gain of 12.85% year-to-date. However, a closer look at the price chart reveals a potential concern – the formation of a rising wedge pattern, which could indicate a reversal in the upward trend. Understanding Brent Crude and Its Global Influence Brent crude oil, extracted from the North Sea, is a light sweet crude oil variety. Widely traded across the globe, it serves as a benchmark for oil pricing, influencing other crudes like West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark. Supply, demand, geopolitical tensions, and global economic health are all factors that impact Brent crude prices. In June 2024, a confluence of events pushed prices higher. US Inventory Draw Tightens the Market A key driver of the June price increase was a significant decline in US crude oil inventories. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 2.55 million barrels. This decrease signifies that demand for crude oil is outpacing supply, a classic recipe for rising prices. Several factors could explain the inventory decline. Economic growth can lead to increased energy consumption by businesses and consumers, driving up demand for crude oil. Geopolitical tensions can also disrupt oil supplies, further tightening available inventories. OPEC+ Decision Adds Fuel to the Fire Another factor influencing June's price increase was the decision by OPEC+, a group of oil-producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, to loosen production cuts. Implemented in April 2020 to support oil prices during the COVID-19 pandemic, these cuts were gradually lifted as the global economy recovered in 2024. The OPEC+ decision was interpreted as a sign of a tightening oil market. With rising demand and only a gradual increase in production from OPEC+, concerns arose about potential future supply constraints. This concern played a role in pushing Brent crude prices higher in June. The Rising Wedge: A Potential Threat to the Upward Trend? While the June price increase paints a picture of a robust oil market, a technical analysis of the Brent crude price chart reveals a potentially bearish pattern – the rising wedge. This chart formation consists of two upward-sloping trendlines, with prices seemingly trapped within an expanding channel. While the price appears to be rising, the trendlines narrow as the pattern progresses, suggesting a potential loss of momentum. A breakout from the rising wedge, particularly downwards, is often seen as a bearish signal, indicating a potential reversal in the price trend. This could lead to a decline in Brent crude prices in the coming months. The Two-Sided Coin of Rising Oil Prices Higher Brent crude prices have a double-edged impact on the global economy. On the one hand, consumers face the burden of rising gasoline prices, which can strain household budgets and impact businesses reliant on transportation. Additionally, higher oil prices translate to increased costs for transportation and other goods and services. On the other hand, oil-producing countries benefit from the price hike. Increased revenue allows them to invest in infrastructure, social programs, and economic development initiatives. The Road Ahead: Uncertainties and Opportunities Predicting the future of oil prices is a complex task. Global economic growth, geopolitical tensions, and OPEC+ production decisions will all play a role. However, the June price increase and the formation of the rising wedge pattern highlight the dynamic nature of the oil market. While the upward trend suggests continued price increases in the near term, the rising wedge pattern warrants caution. Investors and businesses involved in oil-dependent industries should closely monitor the price chart and economic factors to navigate the potential market shift.
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
Oil Broader Support Market Optimism, Despite Lingering UncertainOil prices edged higher this week, marking their strongest gain in seven days. This upward momentum came despite a somewhat ambiguous outlook for crude itself, suggesting the driving force behind the rise lies elsewhere: positive sentiment in the broader financial markets. Risk-On Rally Lifts Oil The primary factor behind oil's recent rise is the prevailing "risk-on" sentiment dominating global markets. Equity indices, particularly in the United States, have been scaling new highs, with the S&P 500 reaching its 30th record this year. This optimism seems to be spilling over into the commodities market, including oil. Investors, buoyed by the positive performance in equities, are displaying a greater willingness to take on risk, and oil is seen as a potential beneficiary. OPEC+ Cuts and Geopolitical Tensions Offer Underlying Support Beyond the broader market sentiment, a couple of oil-specific factors are also contributing to the price increase. Firstly, the decision by OPEC+, the world's leading oil producer alliance, to extend production cuts has helped to tighten supply and prop up prices. Anxieties surrounding potential disruptions due to geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions like the Middle East are also lending some support. Mixed Outlook for Crude: Demand Questions Linger However, the outlook for crude remains somewhat clouded by uncertainties. While the supply side appears relatively stable thanks to OPEC+ intervention, demand remains a question mark. Signs of slowing economic growth in some parts of the world, particularly in Asia, raise concerns about future oil consumption. Data from China, a major consumer of oil, recently indicated weaker-than-expected industrial activity, potentially signaling a softening demand outlook. Additionally, rising gasoline prices in some regions, like India, could dampen consumer spending and lead to lower demand for fuel. The Balancing Act: Weighing Optimism Against Uncertainty The current situation presents a complex picture for oil markets. The positive sentiment in broader financial markets is providing a tailwind for oil prices. However, this is counterbalanced by lingering uncertainties about future demand, particularly in Asia. The net effect of these opposing forces will determine the future trajectory of oil prices. Looking Ahead: Navigating a Volatile Market Oil will likely see continued volatility in oil markets. Investors will be closely monitoring key factors like: • Global economic performance: The health of major economies, particularly China, will significantly influence oil demand. • Monetary policy decisions: Actions by central banks, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve, could impact risk appetite and indirectly affect oil prices. • Geopolitical developments: Events in major oil-producing regions can disrupt supply and cause price spikes. By carefully weighing these factors, market participants can navigate the current uncertainty and make informed decisions regarding oil investments.
FX:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln