oil forecast - buy or sell? triangle pattern for oil, i think this will be good position and good ratio (Risk-reward)
Oilprice
WTI Crude Oil Trading: An In-Depth Analysis of a Bearish TrendDear Esteemed TradingView Members,
I n the ever-evolving world of finance and trading, staying ahead of the curve is essential for success. If you're part of the exclusive audience of elite business professionals and investors, you understand the importance of precise market analysis and informed decision-making. In this article, we delve into the intricacies of WTI Crude Oil trading to provide you with valuable insights and a sophisticated outlook on the current market.
Decoding the WTI Crude Oil Market
M ACD Indicator Insights: The WTI Crude Oil market has witnessed a bearish trend since September 28, 2023, as indicated by the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) at the bottom of the chart. While MACD continues to display bearish signals, it's vital to remember that this is a lagging indicator, reflecting historical trends. As sophisticated investors, we must recognize that historical behavior does not guarantee future outcomes. The world and its dynamics are in a constant state of flux, with each trading day being a unique entity shaped by ever-evolving global events.
D eep Neural Analytics Perspective: Here's where our analysis takes an intriguing turn. Deep Neural Analytics suggests the possibility of WTI Crude Oil being oversold. Historically, when MACD levels have reached this point, a bullish pull-up often follows. However, it's important to approach this insight cautiously. Global news and unforeseen developments can significantly impact oil markets. While historic trends provide valuable guidance, they are not absolute predictors of future behavior.
T he Support Zone: According to volume metrics, the current support zone (indicated by the upper blue rectangle) ranging from $77 to $84 also serves as a demand zone. If market sentiment remains positive and bearish news doesn't disrupt the status quo, this zone could transition into a consolidation platform. A consolidation zone acts as a springboard for investors to accumulate positions and potentially drive the price to the next resistance zone, which might fall within the range of $94 to $100 (as depicted by the purple rectangle).
A lternative Scenarios: If buyers fail to sustain the current support zone, or if external factors challenge investor sentiment, the next potential demand zone lies between $63.5 and $71 (as illustrated by the bottom blue rectangle). Should this scenario unfold, it would necessitate a reassessment to determine its suitability for a possible reversal. Theoretically, if oil doesn't reverse from the current demand zone, it could find its turning point in the alternate demand zone. These scenarios, however, are long-term considerations, while the current situation sees oil consistently falling below key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) like EMA 20/50/100/200.
U nderstanding Sustainability: Exponential Moving Average (EMA) indicators play a pivotal role in comprehending the sustainability of trends. Gradient Boosting Machines (GBMs) applied to EMAs and oil prices suggest that the bearish trend may persist until February 2024 or potentially longer. Despite MACD indicating that oil is oversold, GBMs on EMAs advise against forecasting an immediate bullish trend. This underscores the importance of not relying solely on one indicator.
The Road Ahead
I n the realm of WTI Crude Oil trading, informed decision-making is key. The markets are driven by a complex interplay of variables, making the role of a sophisticated investor all the more crucial. Without bullish news and indicators, WTI Crude Oil continues to display bearish tendencies and may maintain this trajectory for the foreseeable future.
Remember, this analysis serves as a guide, not an investment recommendation. Conduct thorough research, safeguard your funds, and take full responsibility for your investment choices. The dynamic nature of financial markets requires vigilance, and with the right insights, you can navigate the WTI Crude Oil landscape with confidence and wisdom.
Kind regards,
Ely
Expected to rise
International oil prices rose more than 2% on Monday amid widespread expectations that OPEC+ will announce further production cuts after a meeting of member states early next week. Traders are eyeing potential speculative buying in crude oil trading as global risk sentiment appears to be strengthening and optimism returns among financial institutions.
Crude oil continued its rebound trend and reached the pressure level, but was blocked and fell back. It is still falling back and adjusting. Since the bulls' main bottom-buying signals appeared continuously below, it has rebounded relatively slightly. At present, it should continue to fluctuate and adjust.
Crude oil will currently fluctuate in the range of 78.8-75.5.
Oil price passes the first positive targetHello everyone,Oil price is trying to confirm the breach of the descending channel resistance, to support the continuation of the expected bullish trend for today, whose targets start at 77.86, noting that breaching this level will extend the bullish wave to reach 79.32 as a next positive station.
On the other hand, it is necessary to note that breaking 76.35 and holding below it will return the price to the downward path, heading towards visiting the 74.81level mainly.
Resistance prices: 79.32 & 81.23 & 82.81
Support prices: 74.81 & 72.46 & 69.53
The general trend expected for today: bullish
Crude oil range trading
Crude oil prices fell for the fourth consecutive week last week. A substantial increase in inventories and record production were the main reasons for the decline in crude oil prices last week. The entire market has been weak recently due to supply concerns and a significant drop in demand. However, on Friday due to some short sellers Oil prices rose as profit-taking and U.S. sanctions on Russian crude shippers gave oil prices a bit of support.
Market focus this week shifts to the upcoming OPEC+ meeting to discuss further production cuts, which could increase tensions with the United States, while the market focuses on whether Saudi Arabia and Russia extend voluntary production cuts until 2024
Crude oil support and resistance levels will continue to move upward.
Crude oil is currently trading in a range. Support level 74.5 Resistance level 77.8
Crude oil bearish
After failing to break through 80 this week, crude oil fell again to around 75.56 after the US EIA inventory data emerged yesterday. There is currently no good news for crude oil in the market.
The overall trend of crude oil is very weak, showing a slow falling trend. After breaking above the moving average, oil prices did not stand firm but fell back and fell below again. The pressure on the daily line is still very strong.
Crude oil is currently bearish, and you can pay attention to trading in the 73.5-77.8 range.
sell Oil now!The light crude oil futures market, with a current daily price of $73.18, is positioned below the 50-day moving average of $84.78, indicating a bearish trend in the short term. It’s also below the 200-day moving average of $78.11, reinforcing this bearish sentiment.
The price hovers above the minor support level of $72.48 and is significantly above the main support at $66.85, suggesting that there might be some level of buying interest preventing a further drop.
The proximity to the minor resistance at $77.43 could indicate potential challenges in upward price movements.
Considering these technical indicators, the market sentiment leans towards bearish, with room for fluctuations near the minor support and resistance levels.
Oil WTI (Next Moving)Hello everyone, Oil price is testing the key resistance of 73.70, which is positively influenced by the stochastic index, the price needs to be below this level for the bearish trend scenario to remain valid, which has the next target at 72.12.
On the other hand, it should be noted that the confirmation of the breach of 73.70 will push the price to move higher creating a bullish wave targeting the 75.35 areas initially.
Pivot Price: 73.70
Resistance prices: 75.35 & 76.47 & 78.79
Support prices: 72.12 & 70.95 & 69.53
Long term bullish
Oil prices have risen in recent days on the back of a bullish outlook from OPEC+'s monthly report and the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a monthly report on Tuesday that raised its crude oil demand growth forecast for this year and next.
Oil prices have been range-bound due to signs that tensions in the Middle East may be easing and uncertainty about U.S. oil inventories. The U.S. dollar index fell sharply to a more than two-month low after U.S. CPI data was weaker than market expectations, and the International Energy Agency ( The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for crude oil demand, and oil prices once hit a one-week high.
The trend of crude oil fluctuated upward and continued to be blocked near 80, forming a repetitive rhythm of alternating main and main markets. The current support level of 77.3 and resistance level of 80 are very strong.
Crude oil will more likely fluctuate within this range. Watch today's EIA data.
Long term bullish
Crude Oil updateAfter the analysis and possible scenarios I posted here:
The two zones that I tolerate everything for long are here. I expect to test Moving average again and we will get the final result. Another secondary scenario is that there is a recovery, and to new low levels
Oil price tests supportHello everyone,The oil price is facing negative pressure to test the 77.86 level, and the price needs to remain above this level for the bullish trend scenario to remain effective, waiting for a breach of the 79.63level to facilitate the task of rushing towards our next positive target at 81.23 .
On the other hand, we note that breaking 77.86 will stop the positive scenario and push the price to turn lower, heading towards visiting the 75.49 areas in the near term.
Pivot Price: 77.86
Resistance Prices: 79.63 & 81.23 & 83.41
support price: 75.49 & 73.80 & 72.12
The general trend expected for today: bullish
Crude oil range trading
Oil prices rebounded by 2% last Friday, and market sentiment has improved. However, what impressed investors more deeply in the past week was the sharp decline in oil prices in the first half of the week. The rapid decline in oil prices broke through the lower edge support of the high range created by OPEC+ production cuts and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, thus fully venting pessimism.
The next key test for oil prices will be whether OPEC+, especially Saudi Arabia, will decide to extend the existing voluntary production cuts to the first quarter of next year or even longer at the OPEC meeting in December.
At present, crude oil tends to trade in a range. The upper resistance is 77.5, and the lower support is 75.
Overall bullish
Oil Rebounds Despite Weak Demand, OPEC's Optimism DimsOil prices are rebounding following a recent dip, sparked by the International Energy Agency's (IEA) announcement earlier this week, contrasting events from Monday. Monday's decline was largely influenced by the OPEC+ monthly report, hinting at potential price increases. However, sustained crude oil recovery requires further momentum, with a significant catalyst expected by the end of November when OPEC+ convenes to forecast the first half of 2024, potentially indicating further supply cuts.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Dollar (USD) is weakening as recent U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) reports show declines across all segments, both Core and Headline. This convinces traders that the Fed has likely completed interest rate hikes and may even prioritize faster rate cuts. The higher crude oil prices in response to this reversal, combined with a weaker U.S. Dollar, are driving up black gold prices. At the time of writing, WTI crude oil is trading at $78.33 per barrel, and Brent crude is at $82.87 per barrel.
Oil WTI completes a positive patternOil price is hovering around the neckline of the double bottom pattern that appears in the chart, waiting for the resumption of the expected bullish wave for today, which depends on stability above 77.86, remembering that our targets start at 79.63 and extend to 81.23, taking into account that breaking 77.86 will put the price below Corrective downward pressure again.
Pivot Price: 77.86
Resistance prices: 79.63 & 81.23 & 83.41
Support prices: 75.59 & 73.80 & 72.12
The general trend expected for today: bullish
OPEC Adds 2.5 Million Oil Barrels Per Day
OPEC has recently made a significant announcement that they will be adding a staggering 2.5 million oil barrels per day to the global supply. This news couldn't be more opportune for those seeking to capitalize on potential gains.
Now, more than ever, we have the chance to position ourselves and make a lasting impact on our trading portfolios. With OPEC's optimistic move, I strongly urge you to consider the idea of going long on oil. By embracing this initiative, we set ourselves up for success and open doors to a plethora of exciting trading prospects.
Why should you consider long oil, you ask? Well, the answer lies in OPEC's strategic decision. Their decision to increase output reflects an underlying confidence in the steady surge of global oil demand. As economies rebound and international travel resumes, the upward trajectory of oil prices is not far behind. It's time to hop on board this thrilling wave and ride it towards potential profits!
I encourage you to conduct thorough research into the current market trends and gather all the necessary information for making informed long oil trading decisions. Remember, knowledge is power, and armed with the right insights, we can navigate the markets with confidence and conviction.
Now is the time for action! Discover the incredible potential OPEC's decision holds and let's embark on this journey together. Get ready to embrace the remarkable trading opportunities that lay ahead as we navigate the exciting realm of long oil.
OIL price resumes declinehello everyone,The price of oil begins today’s trading with strong negativity, reinforcing expectations of a continuation of the downward trend, and the way is open to achieving our negative targets that start at 75.49 and extend to 73.80.
The Stochastic indicator is providing clear negative signals now, to support the proposed bearish trend scenario, which is organized within the bearish channel that appears on the chart, with a reminder that stability below the 77.60 level is important to achieve the proposed goals.
Pivot Price: 76.83
Resistance Prices: 79.18 & 80.80& 82.74
support price: 75.49 & 73.80 & 72.12
The general trend expected for today: bearish
Crude oil review of last week and analysis of this week
This week, crude oil received support at 74.9 and the overall rebound rebounded. The week ended with an overall decline of 4.18%, and finally closed at $77.40. From a fundamental point of view, the reasons for the continued fluctuation of crude oil prices this week are as follows:
1. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Zakharova: Russia will not give up its plan to increase liquefied natural gas production to 100 million tons per year because of US sanctions.
2. Three fuel producers said Russia will completely lift its ban on diesel and gasoline exports next week, sources said
3. Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov: The West’s green transformation has triggered a crisis in the global oil and natural gas market. Sanctions imposed on Russian oil have had a huge impact on global energy markets, causing costs to rise. Damage to the Nord Stream gas pipeline means Europe will no longer have access to cheap fuel.
4. After the United States eased sanctions on Venezuela, Venezuela’s state-owned oil company PDVSA is negotiating with local and foreign oilfield companies to rent equipment and services to enable it to restore sluggish production;
5. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak: Before the end of December 2023, Russia will continue to voluntarily cut its oil supply and petroleum product exports by 300,000 barrels per day. The voluntary production reduction decision will be reviewed next month to consider further production cuts or increases in oil production;
The above factors are responsible for the continued complex and volatile trend of crude oil this week. Overall, it is the promotion of various factors that has caused the price adjustment. It has brought about chain reactions in some markets, and crude oil supply problems have led to changes in crude oil prices;
In terms of news, next week’s regular data API and EIA’s overall expectations are still more likely to be small and bullish. Due to the EIA system upgrade, the EIA will release two crude oil inventory reports at 23:30 on November 15 (including those not announced last week). (one copy), due to the current tense geopolitical environment, the overall probability is still small and bullish, and of course the possibility of repairs on both sides is not ruled out.
In addition, we need to focus on the release of OPEC's monthly crude oil market report (the specific release time of the monthly report is to be determined, usually around 18-21 o'clock on November 13, Beijing time). The follow-up of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict will affect the trend of the energy market. Keep an eye on this;
The IEA releases its monthly crude oil market report. Fundamentals of supply and demand are weak. OPEC+ supply in October was higher than expected. The actual export volume of oil-producing countries increased by nearly 500,000 barrels per day. In addition, Russian oil exports rose to a nearly four-month high, with average daily oil exports of nearly 3.48 million barrels; in its monthly forecast, EIA lowered the growth rate of global crude oil demand in 2023 by 300,000 barrels per day. Inventories have increased significantly. In the week ending November 3, crude oil inventories increased by 11.9 million barrels, and distillate inventories increased by 980,000 barrels.
The marginal demand for crude oil has weakened, and it is expected that supply and demand will develop from a tight balance in the third quarter to a balanced supply and demand in the fourth quarter, putting crude oil prices under pressure. On the macro front, non-farm payrolls data have lowered U.S. economic growth expectations, and Federal Reserve officials have been hawkish recently. If the focus of late trading returns to the U.S. economy, which is expected to enter recession, it may suppress crude oil prices. Overall, the fundamental margin has become looser, inventories have increased more than expected, and price weakness may continue.
From a technical point of view, this time it has continued to fluctuate and bearish since it opened high on the 20th, and this week has made a low, and the latest will be next Monday's low. After that, the overall trend will continue to be bullish until the 1st or 5th, so next week From the beginning, if 74.9 does not break below, the overall trend is to continue to be bullish, and what we need to do is to close the short and add long ideas next week. The previous judgment was to be bearish to about 74, and the target has been achieved now. From a structural point of view, it is a good choice to see the current rebound to about 82, so in the later period, all short positions below 83 will be closed and harvested. U-turn is mainly bullish. Later development will be further judged. More based on the intraday strategy,
Is it time for Oil to go backwards?If Oil is able to close at 77d. There will be room for Retracement to 82 d. If it is unable to close above 77 d, its decline will continue to 69 d.
OIL SELLHello, according to my analysis of the oil market, the market is in a very negative state. The market has broken the ascending channel. It also broke the 88.00 level, which is considered strong support. In the coming days, we may notice further declines towards the 80.00 levels and the 76 level. Good luck to everyone.
Short continuation
Crude oil broke straight down yesterday, with the high point at 81.0, the lowest point at 77.0, and the closing price at 77.11. The daily level includes a big negative line. The high price did not break the previous high, but the low price broke the previous low, showing a downward trend. The daily line of crude oil showed an N-shaped downward break pattern on the general trend, and the market outlook continued to be bearish.
Crude oil shorts have broken through to open up space, and the short-term outlook is expected to continue. Short-term resistance levels focus on the 78.6-79.5 and 75.0-74.0 support levels.
WTI TO 78.23$WTI Oil is going down to test 78.23$ level.
We will wait to reach target then take another look.
Follow to get next signal.
Oil 4H midday updateThe oil price is showing additional positive trading to gradually approach our first awaited target at 84.12, waiting for this level to be breached to confirm the continued dominance of the upward trend and achieve additional gains up to 85.94.
On the other hand, you should be aware that breaking 82.90 will stop the expected rise and force the price to decline again.
The general trend expected for today:bullish
Pivot Price: 82.90
Resistance Prices: 84.12 & 85.94 & 87.73
support price: 80.95 & 79.73 & 78.21
