Is Global Oil Demand the Key to Energy Market Stability?In the intricate landscape of global energy markets, the question of oil demand remains a central enigma. Driven by a confluence of geopolitical tensions, OPEC+ production strategies, and economic dynamics, global oil demand is a complex tapestry that shapes the future of energy markets.
Geopolitical events, particularly in the Middle East, have historically been a significant driver of oil price volatility. The recent escalation of tensions has once again underscored the delicate balance between geopolitical stability and global oil supply. As geopolitical risks rise, so too does the price of oil, impacting investors in oil-related securities like the United States Oil Fund (USO).
However, geopolitical factors are just one piece of the puzzle. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, OPEC+, play a crucial role in regulating global oil supply. Their production decisions, often influenced by economic considerations and geopolitical pressures, can significantly impact oil prices and, consequently, global oil demand.
Beyond geopolitical tensions and OPEC+ dynamics, economic factors also play a vital role in shaping global oil demand. The global economy, with its cyclical nature, influences energy consumption. During periods of economic growth, oil demand tends to increase, while economic downturns can lead to reduced consumption.
The interplay between geopolitical risks, OPEC+ strategies, and economic factors creates a complex and dynamic environment for the global oil market. Understanding these intricate relationships is essential for investors seeking to navigate the challenges and opportunities presented by the oil sector.
Oilprices
Brent Crude Surges in June But Chart Pattern Raises ConcernsBrent Crude Surges in June as Inventory Draw Tightens Market, But Chart Pattern Raises Concerns
Brent crude oil prices experienced a significant rally in June 2024, rising 5% over the month. This increase adds to a positive trend for the year so far, with Brent crude accumulating a total gain of 12.85% year-to-date. However, a closer look at the price chart reveals a potential concern – the formation of a rising wedge pattern, which could indicate a reversal in the upward trend.
Understanding Brent Crude and Its Global Influence
Brent crude oil, extracted from the North Sea, is a light sweet crude oil variety. Widely traded across the globe, it serves as a benchmark for oil pricing, influencing other crudes like West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark. Supply, demand, geopolitical tensions, and global economic health are all factors that impact Brent crude prices. In June 2024, a confluence of events pushed prices higher.
US Inventory Draw Tightens the Market
A key driver of the June price increase was a significant decline in US crude oil inventories. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 2.55 million barrels. This decrease signifies that demand for crude oil is outpacing supply, a classic recipe for rising prices.
Several factors could explain the inventory decline. Economic growth can lead to increased energy consumption by businesses and consumers, driving up demand for crude oil. Geopolitical tensions can also disrupt oil supplies, further tightening available inventories.
OPEC+ Decision Adds Fuel to the Fire
Another factor influencing June's price increase was the decision by OPEC+, a group of oil-producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, to loosen production cuts. Implemented in April 2020 to support oil prices during the COVID-19 pandemic, these cuts were gradually lifted as the global economy recovered in 2024.
The OPEC+ decision was interpreted as a sign of a tightening oil market. With rising demand and only a gradual increase in production from OPEC+, concerns arose about potential future supply constraints. This concern played a role in pushing Brent crude prices higher in June.
The Rising Wedge: A Potential Threat to the Upward Trend?
While the June price increase paints a picture of a robust oil market, a technical analysis of the Brent crude price chart reveals a potentially bearish pattern – the rising wedge. This chart formation consists of two upward-sloping trendlines, with prices seemingly trapped within an expanding channel. While the price appears to be rising, the trendlines narrow as the pattern progresses, suggesting a potential loss of momentum.
A breakout from the rising wedge, particularly downwards, is often seen as a bearish signal, indicating a potential reversal in the price trend. This could lead to a decline in Brent crude prices in the coming months.
The Two-Sided Coin of Rising Oil Prices
Higher Brent crude prices have a double-edged impact on the global economy. On the one hand, consumers face the burden of rising gasoline prices, which can strain household budgets and impact businesses reliant on transportation. Additionally, higher oil prices translate to increased costs for transportation and other goods and services.
On the other hand, oil-producing countries benefit from the price hike. Increased revenue allows them to invest in infrastructure, social programs, and economic development initiatives.
The Road Ahead: Uncertainties and Opportunities
Predicting the future of oil prices is a complex task. Global economic growth, geopolitical tensions, and OPEC+ production decisions will all play a role. However, the June price increase and the formation of the rising wedge pattern highlight the dynamic nature of the oil market.
While the upward trend suggests continued price increases in the near term, the rising wedge pattern warrants caution. Investors and businesses involved in oil-dependent industries should closely monitor the price chart and economic factors to navigate the potential market shift.
USOIL is Under PressureWTI crude oil futures are experiencing a downturn, currently priced at $79.37 per barrel, marking a 0.48% decrease. This decline is attributed to the global economic challenges that are negatively impacting the demand forecast. Similarly, Brent crude has seen a reduction in price, now at $83.88 per barrel.
The economic recovery in China is progressing slower than expected, and the anticipation of additional interest rate hikes is exacerbating concerns over economic growth, exerting further downward pressure on oil prices.
In the United States, crude oil inventories have witnessed an increase of 3.4 million barrels in the previous week, contributing to the existing oversupply. The persistent risk of a recession continues to place significant stress on the oil market.
Meanwhile, amidst these market conditions, option sentiment from the CME exchange suggests a robust support level at $75 for WTI futures in the nearest expiration series. This sentiment indicates a strong market belief that prices are unlikely to fall below this threshold, providing a measure of stability despite the current market volatility.
For investors and market watchers, these indicators from the options market are a critical piece of the puzzle, offering insights into future price movements and trader expectations.
Oil Prices Surge on Rising Tensions in the Middle EastOil prices surged today, reaching their highest level since October 2023, amid heightened geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran. The increase comes as Israel braces for a potential retaliatory strike from Iran following a recent Israeli attack on an Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria.
This latest development adds another layer of uncertainty to the already volatile global oil market. Concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East, a region that accounts for roughly one-third of the world's crude oil output, are driving prices higher.
Rising Tensions Fuel Oil Price Rally
News reports, citing sources familiar with the matter, suggest that Israel is preparing for a possible attack from Iran or its proxies in the coming days. This follows the Israeli airstrike on the Iranian diplomatic compound in Syria last week, which was widely seen as a significant escalation of tensions between the two nations.
The United States and its allies believe that a major missile attack by Iran is imminent. This perceived threat of a wider conflict in the Middle East has sent shockwaves through the oil market. Investors are concerned that any military confrontation could disrupt oil production and exports from the region, leading to a significant supply shortfall.
This perception of risk is reflected in the options market, where traders are actively buying call options – contracts that give the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to purchase oil at a certain price by a certain date. The increased demand for call options suggests that many investors are anticipating a further rise in oil prices.
Analysts Weigh In: Bullish vs. Cautious
Analysts are divided on the potential impact of the current situation on oil prices. Some, like those at Commerzbank, believe that a direct confrontation between Israel and Iran would be a "game-changer" for the oil market, leading to a significant and sustained price increase.
Others, however, are taking a more cautious approach. The International Energy Agency (IEA) released its monthly report today, downgrading its outlook for global oil demand this year and next. The report cites the ongoing economic slowdown in China, the world's largest oil importer, as a key factor behind the downward revision.
Beyond the Middle East: Other Factors at Play
While the Israel-Iran tensions are currently the dominant factor driving oil prices higher, it's important to remember that other factors are also at play in the global oil market.
• Limited Spare Capacity: OPEC, the world's leading oil producer cartel, and its allies, known collectively as OPEC+, have limited spare production capacity. This means that if there is a disruption in oil supplies from the Middle East, it will be difficult to quickly replace the lost barrels.
• Geopolitical Risks Beyond the Middle East: Recent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure by Ukraine have also contributed to the overall sense of unease in the oil market.
• Post-Pandemic Recovery: The ongoing global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic continues to drive up demand for oil, particularly in transportation sectors.
The Road Ahead: A Balancing Act
The future path of oil prices will depend on how the situation in the Middle East unfolds. If a wider conflict is averted, oil prices could moderate somewhat, especially if the IEA's concerns about slowing demand materialize.
However, if tensions escalate and there is a significant disruption to oil supplies from the Middle East, then a sustained price increase is highly likely. Additionally, how OPEC+ responds to the evolving situation will also be a key factor.
The cartel is currently scheduled to meet in May to discuss production quotas. If they decide to maintain their current production levels or even cut output, it could further tighten the market and push prices even higher.
Impact on Consumers and Businesses
Rising oil prices have a ripple effect throughout the global economy. Consumers are likely to see higher prices at the pump, as gasoline and diesel costs typically track the price of crude oil.
Businesses that rely heavily on oil and other energy sources will also face higher input costs, which could lead to higher prices for goods and services across the board. This could further dampen economic growth, especially in countries that are already grappling with high inflation.
Conclusion: A Volatile Market with High Stakes
The oil market is currently in a state of high uncertainty. The rising tensions in the Middle East are a significant risk factor, but they are not the only factor at play. The interplay of supply and demand dynamics, the actions of OPEC+, and the overall health of the global economy will all play a role in determining the future path of oil prices.
In the short term, oil prices are likely to remain volatile as investors grapple with the potential for a wider conflict in the Middle East. In the long term, the outlook for oil prices will depend on a complex mix of factors, making it difficult to predict with certainty where they will go from here.
WTI BULLISH OUTLOOKOil prices surged during the latest OPEC+ meeting discussions, showcasing a 1.2% rise in U.S. crude futures at $78.77 per barrel and a 1.1% climb in Brent crude to $83.78 per barrel. The market buzzed with expectations of deeper output cuts, despite existing pledges from OPEC+ members to cut global oil output by about 5 million barrels per day. The delay in the meeting, prompted by African nations contesting their 2024 production targets, fueled speculations of potential additional cuts.
Amidst bearish U.S. crude inventory data and concerns over China's slowing economic growth affecting oil demand, the market maintained a positive outlook. Analysts hinted at the possibility of expanded supply reductions beyond existing voluntary measures, with the potential of an added 1.0 million barrel-a-day cut to stabilize oil prices. However, caution lingered about a "buy the rumor-sell the fact" scenario, and technical indicators pointed towards a trend reversal, indicating a potential retreat to $73.91 if the current bullish trend eases.
Overall, the oil market remained buoyant on prospects of increased output cuts by OPEC+ members, brushing aside bearish inventory reports and economic slowdown worries. The discussions continue to shape the market trajectory, showcasing a delicate balance between supply and demand dynamics in the energy sector.
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Consolidation, ContinuedS&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for WED. 09/06
As we wrote in our trading plans published yesterday, Tue. 09/05: "Markets appear searching for a direction, with a mild bias to the upside which appears to be waning. This week could reveal some clues as to the near term direction".
In this morning's session so far, markets continue to be listless with the bias sliding towards mildly bearish. Nevertheless, bears need to wait for a confirmation before taking any positional shorts - a daily close below 4450 today might give that confirmation.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4501, 4490, 4472, or 4445 with a 8-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4496, 4488, 4468, 4459, or 4442 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit short exits on a break above 4462. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 11:46am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #oilprices
Consolidation Week Ahead?S&P 500 INDEX MODEL TRADING PLANS for TUE. 09/05
As we wrote in our trading plans published Fri. 09/01: "The NFP numbers paint a picture of potentially the hoped-for Goldilocks scenario could continue into the next Fed meeting, continue to push up the markets higher. On the flip side, any weakness in today's regular session could indicate the beginning of the end of the recent bull run".
Markets appear searching for a direction, with a mild bias to the upside which appears to be waning. This week could reveal some clues as to the near term direction.
Aggressive, Intraday Trading Plans:
For today, our aggressive intraday models indicate going long on a break above 4432, 4418, or 4502 with a 9-point trailing stop, and going short on a break below 4528, 4516, 4498, or 4488 with a 9-point trailing stop.
Models indicate explicit long exits on a break below 4510, and short exits on a break above 4491. Models also indicate a break-even hard stop once a trade gets into a 4-point profit level. Models indicate taking these signals from 10:41am EST or later.
By definition the intraday models do not hold any positions overnight - the models exit any open position at the close of the last bar (3:59pm bar or 4:00pm bar, depending on your platform's bar timing convention).
To avoid getting whipsawed, use at least a 5-minute closing or a higher time frame (a 1-minute if you know what you are doing) - depending on your risk tolerance and trading style - to determine the signals.
(WHAT IS THE CREDIBILITY and the PERFORMANCE OF OUR MODEL TRADING PLANS over the LAST WEEK, LAST MONTH, LAST YEAR? Please check for yourself how our pre-published model trades have performed so far! Seeing is believing!)
NOTES - HOW TO INTERPRET/USE THESE TRADING PLANS:
(i) The trading levels identified are derived from our A.I. Powered Quant Models. Depending on the market conditions, these may or may not correspond to any specific indicator(s).
(ii) These trading plans may be used to trade in any instrument that tracks the S&P 500 Index (e.g., ETFs such as SPY, derivatives such as futures and options on futures, and SPX options), triggered by the price levels in the Index. The results of these indicated trades would vary widely depending on the timeframe you use (tick chart, 1 minute, or 5 minute, or 15 minute or 60 minute etc.), the quality of your broker's execution, any slippages, your trading commissions and many other factors.
(iii) These are NOT trading recommendations for any individual(s) and may or may not be suitable to your own financial objectives and risk tolerance - USE these ONLY as educational tools to inform and educate your own trading decisions, at your own risk.
#spx, #spx500, #spy, #sp500, #esmini, #indextrading, #daytrading, #models, #tradingplans, #outlook, #economy, #bear, #yields, #stocks, #futures, #inflation, #recession, #softlanding, #oilprices
Oil Prices Has Bear Channel and SMA So Wait It Out I wanted to draw your attention to an essential development in the oil market that warrants caution and careful consideration.
As you may be aware, oil prices have recently entered a bearish channel, indicating a downward trend in the market. Furthermore, the simple moving average (SMA) for oil prices has declined steadily over the past few weeks. When taken together, these two indicators suggest a potentially prolonged period of price decline in the oil market.
While it is understandable that such news may raise concerns and prompt immediate action, I encourage you to adopt a patient approach and wait it out before making any hasty decisions regarding your oil positions. It is crucial to remember that the oil market is highly volatile, often influenced by a multitude of factors, both geopolitical and economic.
Instead of succumbing to panic or being swayed by short-term fluctuations, taking a step back and assessing the broader picture is essential. Consider the long-term prospects of the oil industry, the potential impact of global events, and the evolving energy landscape. By doing so, you will be better equipped to make informed decisions that align with your investment goals.
In light of these recent developments, I urge you to take the following actions:
1. Evaluate your current oil positions: Carefully review your portfolio and assess the potential risks associated with your oil investments. Consider diversifying your holdings to mitigate potential losses and protect your overall investment strategy.
2. Stay informed: Closely on market trends, industry news, and expert analysis. You can make better-informed decisions and adjust your investment strategy accordingly by staying informed.
3. Consult with a financial advisor: Seek guidance from a qualified financial advisor specializing in the energy sector. Their expertise and insights can prove invaluable in navigating the complexities of the oil market and making strategic investment decisions.
Remember, investing in oil requires a cautious approach, especially during times of uncertainty. While the current bearish channel and declining SMA may appear discouraging, keeping a long-term perspective and not letting short-term fluctuations dictate your actions is crucial.
Can oil demand bounced back to drive pack price? As you may have noticed, oil prices have recently ticked up on bargain hunting, but demand worries continue to weigh heavily on the market. While this may seem like a good investment opportunity, I urge you to exercise caution.
The global pandemic has caused unprecedented disruptions in the oil industry, and the future remains uncertain. Demand for oil is likely to remain suppressed for some time. In addition, the ongoing trade tensions between major economies could also impact the market.
Therefore, it is important to be mindful of the risks associated with investing in oil at this time. While there may be opportunities for short-term gains, the long-term outlook remains uncertain.
I encourage you to carefully consider your investment strategy and consult with a financial advisor before making any decisions. It is important to prioritize your financial well-being and make informed choices in these challenging times.
US Crude Oil At Support Level for Long Trade.US crudeoil is at support level . it is also trading at very support level of channel pattern . According to chart pattern analysis we might see bounce back in us crudeoil from current level towards the 80 level .
trade with stop loss and own capital risk management.
views / opinions are welcome to discuss.
What’s Hot: Is it all bears from here for oil prices?How have oil markets evaded the bearish sentiment in equities in the last six months? Have the fundamentals between the two risk markets really diverged or, as the OPEC1 claim, oil markets have simply been panicking? Is the discrepancy now getting corrected?
Might the cure for high prices be high prices?
Commodity prices are ultimately a function of demand and supply. Energy consumption isn’t inelastic, i.e., when prices rise due to supply constraints, consumption isn’t unaffected. Discretionary spending on energy can be reduced by limiting non-essential car and plane journeys. Painful? Yes. But doable? Also, yes.
Even where things stand now, global demand and supply figures do not necessarily support the bull run in oil markets in recent months. According to the International Energy Agency, global oil demand was 99.2 million barrels per day (mb/d) in June while supply stood at 99.5 mb/d. Moreover, global oil supply is expected to average 100.1 mb/d in 2022 before hitting an annual record of 101.1 mb/d in 20232.
So, Brent oil prices exceeding $123/barrel in June, up from under $78/barrel at the start of the year3, doesn’t seem like a function of on the ground demand and supply dynamics.
Further demand destruction on the cards?
China is still pursuing a zero-Covid policy, and forty-one Chinese cities are under full or partial lockdowns or district-based controls, covering 264mn people in regions that account for about 18.7 per cent of the country’s economic activity4. China is the second largest oil consuming country in the world and further lockdowns could dent demand again, as they have in recent months (see figure 02).
What does OPEC say?
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the two countries where most of OPEC’s spare capacity sits, have both resisted pressure until now from the West to increase supply in the wake of rising prices. While some have seen this as the group’s inability to increase output, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) state that OPEC’s spare capacity in the second quarter of this year was 2.85 mb/d and will remain above 2.5 mb/d through 2023. This is much higher than the 2003-2008 period when price rallied sharply, and spare capacity was below 2.5 mb/d5.
The OPEC have repeatedly asserted that the case for increasing supply at a faster rate is not strong enough as prices have rallied due to markets panicking over the Russia-Ukraine conflict.
Oil bulls can easily argue that OPEC could cut production if demand slows down meaningfully and this could cause prices to rise. Admittedly, this is possible. But it seems like the group is taking a more measured approach in view of the medium term demand outlook rather than making hasty decisions, in raising supply now and cutting later.
Is tackling oil prices the solution to inflation?
Probably yes. Consumer spending in the US has exceeded pre-pandemic trend levels. This is certainly not the case in Europe. But inflation is equally rampant in both regions. Energy prices are arguably playing a larger role in driving inflation than other components of aggregate demand. Perhaps governments can help their central banks avoid pushing their economies into a recession by rethinking energy policy and sanctions. While Russian oil exports fell slightly by 250 thousand barrels/day (kb/d) in June to 7.4 mb/d, export revenues increased by $700 million month on month to $20.4 billion due to higher prices, 40% above last year’s average6. So, the West’s plan to punish Russia via the oil market doesn’t seem to be working.
What’s the bottom line?
Oil prices were on the rise at the start of the year on expectations that demand might outpace supply as people start travelling again. But while chaos at airports around the world does confirm that travel activity has picked up, supply has been ample to meet the additional demand.
And then there has been the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Some might call it panic, other might call it a geopolitical risk premium. Either way, the perceived risk of supply shortages has helped sustain oil prices higher while equities, and other risk assets, have pulled back on recessionary fears. Markets may now be moving to address this discrepancy.
Sources
1 The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries.
2 According to the International Energy Agency’s Oil Market Report July 2022.
3 Source: Bloomberg.
4 Source: Financial Times article from July 18 quoting a report from Nomura.
5 Source: US Energy Information Administration, data as of 12 July 2022.
6 According to the International Energy Agency’s Oil Market Report July 2022.
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UKOIL headed downGood day friends... spotting reluctance has really helped my understanding. From avoiding being caught in the wrong direction to forecasting, to setting targets....spotting reluctance just puts probability on our side... isn't that what we want as traders? to put probability on our side? So you may ask, how do we spot reluctance... going back to this UKOIL chart, I am not personally on this sell because it didn't meet my entry criteria, I was actually looking to go long but what did price do? It retraced into the demand zone , just wicked it slightly and proceeded very close to my target and then headed back to the demand zone.... what you just read is what I call reluctance …. its shows slowing of price and a possible reversal in place... once spotted my bias changed to bearish immediately... I was bearish on USOIL anyway (just didn't get an entry because it moved too impulsively)… with all these said.. we might just see UKOIL heading down as depicted on the chart.
OIL TO $135Expecting a bull run for oil, after Monday’s fall on Oil. Market formed a bearish reversal, technically I’m expecting the market to pick orders into $108, then finally move on, on a new setup.
NB: not a financial advice tho, risky!!!
Energy sector is going to be hot soon Oil companies still have room to continue rising and continue the trend that began at the end of October last year. After they reached a peak as of March, they have been on hiatus, but this, from my perspective, will not last long and we will see a continuation of the trend soon.
Likewise, I see it likely that oil prices will continue to rise in the following months until they reach at least $100 per barrel.
The oil companies with the lowest prices tend to rise the most, although a good way to capitalize on the trend would be to go for a leveraged ETF for the entire sector, such as GUSH.
WTIStill seeing this massive IH&S forming and crude oil. I am watching WLL & OAS and few others bottoming today and looking ready for another push higher.
But part of me thinks the next push will be a LH on HTFs B4 crude slams down to $20.
Weekly RSI on many stocks r in overbought territory and that will probably be the final shake out.
Hourly RSI up to daily r way oversold, meaning there is a nice bounce coming B4 the weekly RSI resets all indicators.
OIL PRICE BULLISH RALLY MUCH EXPECTED TARGET NEAR $40Technically
- The price has retested the channel support which implies that there is a possibility for pull back.
- Also the momentum is still strong as can be noticed from MACD 4C
- The 30 period MA is sloping upward
Fundamentally
- The economies are opening up from Covid19 pandemic which will likely boost demand and Oil price
- On the supply side, the crude inventories are also declining on weekly basis which is also good for oil price.
I have initiated a long position at current price with first target around $39.50