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Oilsell

OIL SHORT: Biggest scam of the year or technical consolidation?Dear shorts, I know most of us are extremely frustrated with the situation of OIL in the past (almost) 2 months. Whilst it should have retraced a long time ago, it can't seem to do so. In the early stages of this short trade, mostly technical indicators supported the idea whilst in the past ±4 weeks fundamental factors should cause oil to crash, since despite OPEC's pitiful attempt to cut production, the glut has grown. Yet, we see oil refusing to crash and moreover, we see oil skyrocketing on days where data is the worst. This makes no sense fundamentally and thus I was led to conclude that there are MM involved in this state in which oil is traded under. Still, before every major downturn for oil we see a period of consolidation ranging from 16d to 58d. The longer the consolidation the worst the movement downwards (statistically). Despite my frustration I have been averaging down my position every time I find an opportunity. The downturn should start soon and it will be ugly. All the pumpers will flee and oil should crash. Yet, there is a possibility that pumpers win since the divergence between Hedge Fund and retail traders positions are at a huge divergence. Thus, I will set my stop in the range of 55-55.35.
FX:USOILShort
by BigCharts
16
The stubborn hunt for the 40'sStill short from $54, have not sold or added to my position at all. Blue line: $52 transition line, this line needs to be broken strong for us to head lower imo. Red trend-lines: We've see an increase in prices, with declining RSI. This is a bear divergence.(whether or not it will play it is another story, yet I believe it will) Orange line: This was a bull RSI trend-line witch has been broken as of late, and the RSI is beginning to look very bearish to me. The flags are areas in which I am predicting that the RSI and price will hit. I am not adding or selling any of my position for the near future (obviously unless my SL at BE gets hit). I will be expecting slight bounces based on some BS news from the middle east, or if we hit any support areas on the way down, however I will not be scared into selling something that easily looks bearish in my eyes.
FX:USOILShort
by GeorgeJimas
The continued short of oil..So I didn't sell any of my $54 oil shorts today when it rebounded, I just moved my stop to break-even. Today we saw a major miss in inventories, which was initially bearish, but was somehow bullish? I'm still short because of the numerous reports that essentially the OPEC "cut" is garbage, and on top of that oil inventories are growing, while demand remains stalled. There's still a bear divergence in the RSI, but we must carefully watch the $52 transition area (in blue), as a strong break above could signal a higher high.
FX:USOILShort
by GeorgeJimas
Short OilContinued idea from previous. 1 - The current trendline looks to be tested within the next few days, look for a bounce (long), or a break (add short). 2 - This red horizontal bar is around the $52 area (key transition area), it broke today, and closing below it over the next few days will be a good sign for shorts. 3 - Most big players got out December 30th, which points toward this level being a top for the time being. 4 - Today's drop was based on low volume, therefore we must be careful over the next few days. However, due to the large selling on December 20th, this may be all the volume necessary to truly break $52. Look for a weekly close below this level for a longer-term bear. 5 - RSI broke trend. This points towards an RSI heading towards oversold, with the price following.
FX:USOILShort
by GeorgeJimas
7
$40 OilIn accordance to my previous idea, my sentiment on oil today and for the following days is bearish. On the weekly chart, oil looks to have a lot of room for downside with the MACD flat, just barely crossing over and the STOCHS signaling a reversal. I think if this pattern completes we should see $40 oil within the next 2 weeks. This of course should be helped by bad data, which some analysts expect. For today (02/11/2016) I might exit my short if data comes out very bullish and later re-enter. Keep in mind the elections as well, which could boost oil if Clinton wins.
TVC:USOILShort
by BigCharts
Oil hates uncertainty1 month ago today, OPEC unofficially decided that they would cut production by 32.5-33m br/day. That announcement sent oil into gains frenzy skyrocketing it to almost $52/barrel. That unofficial statement was not enough to make oil break the resistance and reach the expected price of $60/barrel. Now during the OPEC and non-OPEC members meeting in Vienna in Friday and Saturday things took a very different turn than hoped. Starting with the OPEC meeting on Friday, the members failed to come to a conclusion and cut production with the biggest opposer being Iraq. Saturday, leaks hint towards a non-conclusive meeting as well. This leads me to expect further movement south for oil over the next weekend. TP for me is $47. Still, I think no production cut could mean that oil tumbles more and thus I will be trading oil over the next month until their next meeting ONLY if it manages to break below the $47-46.8 area with relatively high volume and if indicators favour a short play.
TVC:USOILShort
by BigCharts
2