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Oil market: Arabia is gaining traction, the USA - inventoriesOil continues to be under pressure and it is well-founded. The last day of October ended for the oil bulls on a minor note, as, indeed, the entire month. By the way, the outcome of October was the worst one since July 2016. We’ve already announced causes: oil producents are gaining the production when the demand can’t keep up, and overall expectations in markets are depressed. Bearing in mind that the general fundamental background is conducive to sales, any news which confirms its feasibility, just make the situation worse. Here are some examples of such news: 1. Oil inventories in the US are growing. In yesterday's review we’ve noted that according to the API, oil reserves in the United States are increasing for the second month in a row. Yesterday's official data confirm this information. This is the sixth week of growth in a row. Such a protracted series of growth stocks in the US have not seen since March 2017. And it hurts oil buyers. 2. Saudi Arabia has brought oil production to 10.7 million b/d, which is close to historical highs. And it appeared, Arabia does not plan to stop there. The point is that Saudi Arabia freights more and more tankers. According to Charles R. Weber, the number of tanker shipments in October increased by 12% to a record 157 vessels, while the results of November may be even more impressive - the loading plan for the first 10 days of the month suggests an increase of 10% relative to October levels. The fact confirming this information is the sharp hike in the cost of freight for supertankers. If a month ago the cost was $18,000 per day, then in just a few weeks it has tripled (!) And now stands at $51,000 (the maximum level since 2017). And finally, let’s note yesterday's data on oil production in the US: in one week it has grown at 300K b/d (!) . The USA is producing 11.2 billion b/d so far. The best confirmation of our previous argument will be even difficult to find. As we can see, there are direct and indirect drivers pointed that the situation on the oil market has changed and changed radically, which means that oil needs to be sold . Actually, we started to voice this long-term idea back in September.
TVC:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
The output rise in the oil market as a reason for salesOil continues to experience difficulties, and its prices are in the lowest values in the last couple of months. On the factors that pushed prices up in September, oil no longer responds. We are talking about US sanctions against Iran, as well as the continuing economic depression in Venezuela and a significant decline in oil production in the country. Instead of it, investors' concerns about the increased oil supply from key market participants: Russia, the United States, and Saudi Arabia came to the fore. All these countries are producing the maximum amount of oil so far. Moreover, as we wrote earlier, Saudi Arabia has recently pledged about a possibility to compensate losses of oil market due to the decline in exports from Iran. Recall, all this takes place amid investor and analytic concerns about the growth rate of demand in the oil market: the IMF predicts a slowdown in the global economy, and China’s GDP growth rate (the minimum over the last 10 years) shows that these fears are completely material grounds. Do not forget also that current high oil prices are cooling interest of traders in oil purchases. And it also negatively affects the amount of demand in the market. Note also that the problems of both Iran and Venezuela are temporary. That is, in the foreseeable future, we can expect a recovery in oil production in countries, which means that an additional 2-3 million barrels per day may appear on the oil market. This can radically change the balance of supply and demand in the market. Statistics about oil reserves in the USA nevertheless indicates that there is a surplus in the oil market. According to the API, oil reserves in the USA have been growing for 6 weeks in a row (!). So, amid when oil production is growing, while the growth rate of demand is lagging behind, it is reasonable to expect a surplus on the oil market, which will inevitably lead to a fall in prices. And there is a space for oil to fall. Let us remind that a year or two ago, oil prices were fluctuating around $40- $50 per barrel. So our medium-term oil trading recommendation is to sell.
TVC:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
USOil ShortEntered a little late, but riding the bearish momentum between now and US crude oil news tomorrow (and might re-enter again afterwards). Setting up a short stop order few pips below the 0 fib line, with 1st TP @65.57 (previous 100 fib level in weekly chart, and R2 pivot line in the daily chart). Most likely will add a trailing SL and adjust TP between 60-65 if bearish momentum continues further especially weekly chart is showing a shooting star and double top. www.wsj.com edition.cnn.com Daily: Weekly: Confidence: B (might suddenly rally before the news tomorrow, will have to manually close before the crude oil news to avoid getting whipsawed and re-enter afterwards)
TVC:USOILShort
by aiza_belle
Why selling off oil?Yesterday oil reached its minimum in the past month. It happened amid the information from Saudi Arabia that the country made a pledge to compensate any shortage of oil in the market associated with the US sanctions against Iran. In fact, we are talking about a sharp increase in the production of Saudi Arabia. Which in turn, could trigger a new round of struggle for a share of the oil market, as it was already in 2014. How it ended then, everyone knows (just in case, we remind, oil ended down from $120 to $30 per barrel). Apparently, the United States completely took advantage of a situation with the murder of Saudi journalist at the Saudi Arabian embassy. States has been trying before to put pressure on Saudi Arabia to increase oil production, but the Saudis resisted. So now, it seems that in exchange for the tacit consent of the United States to hush up the murder, they receive from Saudi Arabia a promise to open the oil tap to the maximum. According to various estimates, it is about an increase in oil supply by 1-2 million b/d Taking into account all this is happening amid the IMF’s decrease of the global economic growth, and therefore the slowdown in oil demand, the oil market has all chances not only of forming a full-fledged correction but also of the long-term downtrend. Well, just in case, recall that oil reserves in the United States have been growing for the fifth week in a row and have grown by more than 20 million barrels over the last month. Current events completely fit our forecasts and estimates of the ongoing situation in the oil market. While the drop which we’ve been observing recently - it’s just a beginning of a long descent. So, it's not too late selling the oil and make money on its drop.
TVC:USOILShort
by Trade24Fx
4
CRUDE OIL LONG-TERM OUTLOOK TO GO 'SHORT'Looking at the long-term analysis on the 1D view of Crude Oil, it looks like it is headed downward. Swing trade wise, it could still go up to 67/68 region, which you can swing trade if the opportunity presents itself. However, long-term view Oil is headed downward from it's July's high of 74, prices are below ichimoku cloud which is bear market indication. Now it could take weeks/months to hit bottom but I suggest leaning toward bear trend for the long-term outlook. Have a look at 1HR or even 4/hr view for a more suitable entry point to go short. Suitable entry point being when many indicators are corresponding to go short, this way you are not stuck in a huge retracement and confuse for a trend reversal. 'A retracement is a temporary reversal in the direction of a stock's price that goes against the prevailing trend.' The different yellow horizontal lines represent possible support and resistance areas after analyzing Oil market on 4HR, 1D and the 1W view. I suggest using it as a guideline and look for areas yourself and work with indicators in the long term view to determine when you want to exit market. Please remember to look at what indicators are telling you if you can understand some, as they would likely help you determine a suitable entry point. Also, do set stop losses but be generous with how much room you allow for this due to candle wicks and there is also the posiblity to hedge yourself, for more confident traders imo. All comments and questions welcome, if curious about indicators I use then feel free to inquire.
FX:USOILShort
by Dani0
Long Term Ascending Triangle but Watch that Support!It's tough to imagine being anything but long-term bullish on Tesla. There's strong resistance at $400. May consider buying more if it ever breaks, but with the recent news that Tesla will remain public, it could be a while before that happens. Until then, I may buy on dips, but don't expect any huge short term gains. I'm in it for the Tesla mission. However there's always that chance that it breaks early and we can start talking about TSLA at $4000 in a few years. The only reason we're not seeing exponential growth already, is because fossil fuel shorts. They don't care if they lose money shorting Tesla. As long as they get to keep their pundits in the media, spreading FUD, their mission is accomplished. They know their days are numbered, but they're still cashing in while they can at everyone else's expense. If you're smart, you can see through the bullshit and noise. Will be keeping a close eye on that ~$290 support. If it breaks below in a big way, that will become the new resistance. If that happens, the planet loses, we all lose.
NASDAQ:TSLALong
by rbownb
3
Kenji signals: sell Oil (WTI)Today, the indicator "Kenji" on the daily Oil (WTI) chart generated a sell signal. Let's give some explanations on this signal. This is the ordinary signal to open the trade with a basic volume . According to the indicator, the price of Oil (WTI) is currently in the active downtrend phase (the area between the fast and slow average is colored red). At the same time, current prices entered the sales zone, which led to the formation of a "sell" signal. This short position remains relevant until either the market conditions change (for example, the downtrend changes to flat or uptrend), or a signal to close it appears (a red cross indicating a strong divergence between the price and average values). Recall, work in a trend is one of the most comfortable and potentially successful trading options. For reference: The "Kenji" indicator is a brand new look at the average analysis. The main problem of most trading strategies and indicators based on the average analysis is a number of false signals in the case of flat and trend reverse (for example, frequent crossings of the averages, frequent changes in the direction of the averages, etc.). As a result, averages analysis cannot show its real power and effectiveness. The Kenji indicator using a unique algorithm avoids the most common average analysis traps and significantly improves the quality of signals by determining the current state of the market (using the color indication "Kenji" shows the current state of the market: red color - downtrend, blue - uptrend, green - flat). It generates signals for comfortable trading in a local trend. The indicator provides information on both the timing position opening and the moments of profit taking. It also helps to determine the level of aggressiveness of a signal. This makes the "Kenji" indicator a very useful tool both for novice and experienced traders.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Trade24Fx
Kenji signals: sell Oil (WTI)Today, the indicator "Kenji" on the daily Oil (WTI) chart generated a sell signal. Let's give some explanations on this signal. This is the ordinary signal to open the trade with a basic volume . According to the indicator, the price of Oil (WTI) is currently in the active downtrend phase (the area between the fast and slow average is colored red). At the same time, current prices entered the sales zone, which led to the formation of a "sell" signal. This short position remains relevant until either the market conditions change (for example, the downtrend changes to flat or uptrend), or a signal to close it appears (a red cross indicating a strong divergence between the price and average values). Recall, work in a trend is one of the most comfortable and potentially successful trading options. For reference: The "Kenji" indicator is a brand new look at the average analysis. The main problem of most trading strategies and indicators based on the average analysis is a number of false signals in the case of flat and trend reverse (for example, frequent crossings of the averages, frequent changes in the direction of the averages, etc.). As a result, averages analysis cannot show its real power and effectiveness. The Kenji indicator using a unique algorithm avoids the most common average analysis traps and significantly improves the quality of signals by determining the current state of the market (using the color indication "Kenji" shows the current state of the market: red color - downtrend, blue - uptrend, green - flat). It generates signals for comfortable trading in a local trend. The indicator provides information on both the timing position opening and the moments of profit taking. It also helps to determine the level of aggressiveness of a signal. This makes the "Kenji" indicator a very useful tool both for novice and experienced traders.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Trade24Fx
4
Kenji signals: sell OILToday, the indicator "Kenji" on the daily OIL chart generated a sell signal. Let's give some explanations on this signal. This is the ordinary signal to open the trade with a basic volume . According to the indicator, the price of OIL is currently in the active downtrend phase (the area between the fast and slow average is colored red). At the same time, current prices entered the sales zone, which led to the formation of a "sell" signal. This short position remains relevant until either the market conditions change (for example, the downtrend changes to flat or uptrend), or a signal to close it appears (a red cross indicating a strong divergence between the price and average values). Recall, work in a trend is one of the most comfortable and potentially successful trading options. For reference: The "Kenji" indicator is a brand new look at the average analysis. The main problem of most trading strategies and indicators based on the average analysis is a number of false signals in the case of flat and trend reverse (for example, frequent crossings of the averages, frequent changes in the direction of the averages, etc.). As a result, averages analysis cannot show its real power and effectiveness. The Kenji indicator using a unique algorithm avoids the most common average analysis traps and significantly improves the quality of signals by determining the current state of the market (using the color indication "Kenji" shows the current state of the market: red color - downtrend, blue - uptrend, green - flat). It generates signals for comfortable trading in a local trend. The indicator provides information on both the timing position opening and the moments of profit taking. It also helps to determine the level of aggressiveness of a signal. This makes the "Kenji" indicator a very useful tool both for novice and experienced traders.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Trade24Fx
OIL Elliott Wave Analysis: Larger Correction Taking PlaceHello Traders, In this Elliott Wave Analysis, we will have a look at Oil. OIL short-term Elliott wave analysis suggests that the rally to $75.31 high ended in red wave III. Down from there, the larger correction in red wave IV is taking place in 3, 7 or 11 swings before Oil resumes higher. The internal of the first leg of the decline from $75.28 high took place in 5 wave’s impulse with internal distribution of 5 wave’s structure in lesser degree cycle. This suggests that the five waves down from $75.31 is part of a larger Elliott wave Zigzag correction within cycle degree wave IV pullback. Down from $75.31 high, the decline to $72.14 low ended blue wave (1) as a leading diagonal structure. Above from there, the bounce to 74.70 high ended blue wave (2) bounce as a Zigzag correction. Below from there, the decline to $69.23 low ended blue wave (3) in another 5 waves. Then the bounce to $71.66 high ended blue wave (4) bounce in 3 swings. The final decline from there unfolded in 5 wave’s structure which ended blue wave (5) at $67.04 low & also completed the black wave ((A)). Up from there, the instrument ended black wave ((B)) pullback at $71.11 and should continue the decline. As long as the market stays below $71.11 peak but more importantly below $75.31 peak, we expect Oil to continue lower. We don’t like selling it.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Elliottwave-Forecast
3
USOIL ShortBearish Divergence on 1D and 1W, the June close is acting as a strong resistance, waiting for US crude oil inventories to be released this morning. OPEC oil output has increased in an attempt to keep prices near $70 which coincides with target 1. Trade wars also seem to be having an impact on oil prices. Target 1 aligns with weekly open level that should act as support. Target 2 aligns with the top of the cloud on the 1M and kijun/cloud levels on the 1D. We need to break through the green box, failure to do so would lead me to close short.
TVC:USOILShort
by actavis89
2
The "white" strip in the oil market is dragged outDespite the fundamental breakdown that brings the results of the last meeting of OPEC to the oil market, investors and traders do not have time and opportunity to reevaluate their views on market conditions due to a number of events affecting prices on the oil market. Last week, we already talked about the fact that the shutdown of the oil plant in Fort McMurray (Canada), as well as another oil repartition in Libya, led to the activation of buyers in the oil market. Sanctions against Iran also make market participants nervous. The effect of these news was reinforced by a record decrease in US oil inventories (by more than 9 million barrels, both from API data and official statistics). And the final blow was data from Baker Hughes, which showed that the number of oil rigs was reduced by 4 units. Note that in the case of statistics from Baker Hughes, the problem is not in the fact of reducing the number of drilling rigs, but in the fact that this information sharply activated conversations that oil production in the US reached its limit (we are talking about so-called infrastructure restrictions that are simply do not allow to move and store oil in large volumes without expansion of existing capacities). Against this background, any news in favor of oil sales were simply lost. These are the statements of Aramco about the intentions to bring oil production up to 10.8 million barrels per day in July. Or, for example, information that the export of oil from the US reached a record 3 million barrels a day. With a production level of 10.9 million barrels per day (only Russia produces more than 11 million barrels per day). Or here another news: BP June 28 announced the purchase of Chargemaster, Britain's largest network of stations for recharging electric vehicles. A number of similar purchases last year made Shell. Cause? The largest oil companies understand that the era of oil is coming to an end. According to their analysts, the market of electric vehicles will grow by 8800% (!) from 2017 to 2040 years. But the participants of the oil market are ignoring the future and prefer to live in the present. So far, buyers and optimism are ruling the oil market. Once again, we note that the soil of this optimism, in our opinion, is rather unstable and is of a temporary nature. Therefore, we continue to recommend the sale of oil. The only correction in the recommendations (relative to our previous report) is to wait until unrestrained optimism begins to weaken. And so, in general, prices have become only more attractive for sales.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Trade24Fx
Fundamental factors suport oil, but this is temporarilyThe increase in oil that we observed on Tuesday is largely due to news about production problems in Canada and Libya, as well as data on US oil reserves from the API. It's about stopping an oil refinary in Fort McMurray (Canada) due to an accident (a transformetor explosion). According to current information, it will take about a month to repair it. The losses from this stop will amount to 360 K b / d, which is a very serious amount even on a global scale. As for Libya, there is another redistribution of oil control in the country. However, this is not something really new. What is characteristic, the official Tripoli declares its plans over the next 5 years to increase oil production by 2 times, to 2.1 million barrels per day. AND the latest news in favor of local oil growth was the data from the API, according to which crude oil reserves in the US fell by 9.23 million barrels (a record value since September 2016). Despite the more than convincing growth of oil against the backdrop of such news, in our opinion, these events are of the nature of temporary force majeure, therefore we consider them as a momentary factor of influence. But more interesting in terms of strategy news is the information that Saudi Arabia is going to set a record for oil production. Aramco expects to bring oil production up to 10.8 million barrels per day in July. Recall, in May, the volume of production was 10.03 million barrels per day. That is, we are talking about the appearance of an additional 800K b / d on the market. And this is very, very serious. The last time such volumes Saudi Arabia produced at the height of the race for market share in 2016. That is, the results of the OPEC meeting are already making themselves known. And this is without the latest data from Russia, which was even more serious than Saudi Arabia. Thus, the current price increase is just a gift to those who did not manage to sell oil at $ 70 per barrel (WTI brand). Our position is unchanged - to sell oil. Those who have done this before should be added, and those who did not, can open even with double volumes.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Trade24Fx
Results of OPEC meeting: oil prices fall is almost inevitableOn June 22-23, OPEC met in Vienna. The main issue that was on the agenda was the increase in oil production. Recall, Russia and Saudi Arabia have taken the initiative to increase oil production. In the last report, we reviewed three possible scenarios. Actual results are something between the compromise and the initiative of Russia (production growth of 1.5 million b / d). So, it was decided to increase production by 1 million bbl per day. This, of course, is not a complete refusal from OPEC +, but in general is a very strong negative signal for the oil market. You do not need to be a big expert on the oil market to understand what the sharp increase in supply in the market leads to. Of course, to the drop-in prices on it. The reverse situation was observed after OPEC + reduced production. The price of oil has risen sharply. And we do not see a single reason why this time the basic laws of the economy should fail. Rather, judging by the semi-panic reaction of the opponents of production growth (almost every country has its own opinion on the results of the meeting and the size of the production growth), they suffered a serious defeat. It should be noted that the increase in production is beneficial primarily to Russia and Saudi Arabia, because they can increase it. And countries like Venezuela, Libya, Iran and others have problems with it. As a result, they risk losing market share. Summary. On the oil market are throwen out additional and very serious volumes. We consider this as an excellent occasion for sales.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Trade24Fx
The pressure on oil continues and growsThe white strip for oil seems to have ended. Not a day passes without negative news for oil buyers. Last week ended on a rather minor note - the number of active oil drilling rigs in the US rose again (albeit very slightly, but this was the 11th consecutive week of growth) and reached its highest mark since early 2015. That is, American shale continues to grow. As a result, according to the statistics of the Ministry of Energy, the volume of crude oil production in the US increased by 100,000 barrels a day to a record value of 10.9 million b / d last week. At the same time in the OPEC +camp, on the contrary, reigns disorder and vacillation. The question of extending OPEC + in the current format for 2019 is no longer worth it. By and large, it has already been resolved - at least the format will change in favor of increasing oil production, and as a maximum the contract signers will quarrel among themselves and the agreement will cease to exist altogether. So, on the agenda now is the question of how much will increase the production. This question is no longer: do not increase it or not. And this is a very important shift in emphasis. That is, we have shifted from the stage of "negation" towards the "adoption" stage. Yes, Iran, Iraq and Venezuela threaten to block the initiatives of Saudi Arabia and Russia, but this is the battle of David with Goliath, and the biblical miracle in this case is not expected. So we should expect for the growth if the oil production. And from the side of Russia concrete figures have already been sounded - an increase in production of 1.5 million barrels a day. In fact, this is a waiver from OPEC + (recall, within the framework of the agreement, production was cut by 1.8 million barrels). Given that the growth in oil production in the US and so almost leveled off the efforts of OPEC +, now the bulls for oil will have very tough times. In connection with such a fundamental background and moods on the market, we continue to recommend mid-term sales of oil.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Trade24Fx
8
Several arguments in favor of medium-term oil salesGiven the nature of the news that has recently come out on the oil market, we believe that it's time to seriously talk about mid-term oil sales. This is a reduction to $ 40 per barrel and lower. What can be the basis for such a movement? Here are a few key arguments: 1. Saudi Arabia and Russia are increasing their oil production (the Saudis have increased their production to the highest level since October 2017 - 10.03 million barrels per day, while Russia has already reached its maximum in the past 14 months). What de facto means a rejection of OPEC +. Recall, it was OPEC + ensured the growth of oil from $ 30 to $ 70. More clarity will appear on the results of the OPEC meeting, which will be held on June 22-23. In the meantime, there are rumors that Russia plans to offer OPEC and its allies to return to production levels in October 2016 and to restore production within three months 2. Oil production in the US came close to the level of 11 million barrels a day. The US is actively increasing exports to Asian countries China, taking there the market share from Russia and Saudi Arabia. The volume of US oil sold abroad reached a record 2.57 million barrels per day in May. 3. Trump urged oil producers to increase production to avoid excessive price pressure on the US economy and the world as a whole. 4. More than half of the new electricity in the US, in 2018 was provided by solar energy. That is, alternative sources have already come to replace the energy of hydrocarbons. And this is a very serious factor in favor of the fact that the current models predicting the demand for oil are based on incorrect assumptions. By the way about forecasts of demand for oil. It's no secret that the demand for oil directly depends on the pace of development of the world economy. So, in the last interview, IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde noted that the risks of the global economy are increasing and in general the clouds are gathering over it. So, the clouds are gathering and over the demand for oil. This, of course, is not a complete list of arguments. But this is something that can act as the basis for the formation of a downtrend. Thus, our position is medium-term sales of oil from current ones with targets in the region of $ 40 per barrel. Obviously, it will take more than a month to reach these marks, so we recommend that you have enough patience.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Trade24Fx
Kenji signals: sell oil Today, the indicator "Kenji" on the daily oil chart (WTI) generated a sell signal. Let's give some explanations on this signal. This is the ordinary signal to open the trade with a basic volume. According to the indicator, the price of oil is currently in the active downtrend phase (the area between the fast and slow average is colored red). At the same time, current prices entered the sales zone, which led to the formation of a "sell" signal. This short position remains relevant until either the market conditions change (for example, the downtrend changes to flat or uptrend), or a signal to close it appears (a red cross indicating a strong divergence between the price and average values). Recall, work in a trend is one of the most comfortable and potentially successful trading options. For reference: The "Kenji" indicator is a brand new look at the average analysis. The main problem of most trading strategies and indicators based on the average analysis is a number of false signals in the case of flat and trend reverse (for example, frequent crossings of the averages, frequent changes in the direction of the averages, etc.). As a result, averages analysis cannot show its real power and effectiveness. The Kenji indicator using a unique algorithm avoids the most common average analysis traps and significantly improves the quality of signals by determining the current state of the market (using the color indication "Kenji" shows the current state of the market: red color - downtrend, blue - uptrend, green - flat). It generates signals for comfortable trading in a local trend. The indicator provides information on both the timing position opening and the moments of profit taking. It also helps to determine the level of aggressiveness of a signal. This makes the "Kenji" indicator a very useful tool both for novice and experienced traders.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by Trade24Fx
2
Pullback expected before the next down leg (Elliott Wave)Crude currently seems to be in the ending stages of the first Impulse down from 72.87 level. This Impulse down was sharp as is expected after an Ending Diagonal is formed, from what is visible now we can complete this leg down near 64 or 63.30 level and from there form atleast a 3 legged correction to the upside for Wave 2 or Wave B which can take Crude possibly till 68.30 levels (more clear targets will be visible once the bottom is formed). The important thing here is to wait for the pullback for adding more shorts or initiating new shorts to the downside which can take Crude till 59.40 to 56 levels.
TVC:USOILShort
by NeeravYadav