Oilshort
Oil Short: Downtrend continuesThe oil market in the following days will be very shaky but ultimately, it will reach $43 which is my first TP. From there on I am not sure about oil direction as the indicators on different time scales greatly contradict themselves and some data also contradicts other data and indicators.
Wti Crude can go down till 40$, worst case scenario 32$Previously I was considering that the Wave B/2 was complete where I have placed the vertical line, now I'm taking that as the Secondary Count.
The Primary count ( In Blue ) is that the Wave B/2 is still under progression as a Flat correction and that it should see lower levels of atleast 40$ and can even go down till 32$ to complete the Wave C.
T1 : 40
T2 : 36
T3 : 32
Only if the price gives a small impulsive looking 5 Wave move up and then consolidates then it could be the likely case that the Wave C is actually a Wave 2 and then only we will consider the Secondary Count.
Invalidation Stop : 49 (However we will have to trace the waves to see for a more tighter stop.)
$40 OilIn accordance to my previous idea, my sentiment on oil today and for the following days is bearish. On the weekly chart, oil looks to have a lot of room for downside with the MACD flat, just barely crossing over and the STOCHS signaling a reversal. I think if this pattern completes we should see $40 oil within the next 2 weeks. This of course should be helped by bad data, which some analysts expect. For today (02/11/2016) I might exit my short if data comes out very bullish and later re-enter. Keep in mind the elections as well, which could boost oil if Clinton wins.
UPDATE: Oops, I made a mistakeI would like to apologize for my previous analysis on oil. Whilst the idea was correct, I falsly planted the fib retracement a nd got wrong levels. Apparantly, the new pivot point is at $46.1. Thus I changed my target to that. Other than the wrong levels, you can read "Oil hates uncertainty" for more information on the trade.
Short it the safe way!I think we now have a better chance to short oil!
It reversed on major resistance, crossed the trend line and the 50 EMA. You can sell the correction or the bearish flag. Or you can sell the failure of resistance retest. This is in my view the safest way to short Oil on this level.
oil short on Correction and Strong Resistance at 4HAs we know oil run on Opec Oil Production Cut and Freeze. but now Technically oil can take little Correction till 46-46.5 for fresh move. also we can see above 48 oil formed strong bearish bar on H4
So advice sell in range of 47.5-48 with sl above 48.5 for tp 46.5
OIL BEARISH TRIANGLEPRICE WILL BOUNCE BACK FROM THE 45.60 LEVEL AND WILL CONTINUE TO RETEST THE 46.72 LEVEL.
PRICE WILL FALL AT THE 46.72 LEVEL OR THE 45.40 LEVEL.
ENTER TRADE WHEN PRICE BREAKS THE TREND LINE AND FALLS BELOW 45.30 LEVEL.
STOP LOSS SHOULD BE NO MORE THAN 10 PIPS FOR EACH TRADE.
PROFIT TARGET IS 44.30 AREA.
Brent Breakout RetestBrent crude looking like it is about to retest based upon the breakout we saw earlier in the week. I will be looking at the price action around the $47 handle to see whether we have tall wicks and other signs that prices are unlikely to hold above this level. Target will be $41.50.
Short oil at its seems complete its 100% move on Daily chartOil Seems its done its top around 49 Level its Seems Strong Resistance level.
It can Retrace till 0.786 level that is around 47.1 and if hold below that then 0.618 around 45.5 will also on way.
Advice Sell oil cmp 48.2 and set pending at 48.9 both sl 49.5 where tp1 47.1 tp2 45.5
OIL WXY correction over or will it come down for the Z wave?USOIL Daily chart is at a critical point as it reaches the 61.8% Fib retracement of the correction so far. The important thing to note is if the WXY correction is complete and if bullish momentum dies at the trendline, we might get the Z wave. On the other hand if price breaks out of the corrective structure with conviction, then it will be a bullish impulse. Of course there will be plenty of opportunities and pullbacks to enter long. For now, I expect a swift reversal to complete the Z wave.
Whichever way the market wants to move, let it confirm first. Trade with caution.
Short term Elliott downside cycle, imminent wave 5 ...I think that wti short term down trend can resume soon with a reversal in the area of the rectangle in the chart (end of wave 4). Thus maybe wave 5 can complete the down cycle at about 36 (or above too, but at least 39 to a double min) before the main up trend can resume its way to the upside.