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USOil Sell 70.000Crude oil has been fluctuating and rising recently, reaching a three-week high. From a fundamental perspective: Supply: The United States has intensified its energy sanctions against Iran. Attacks on Saudi facilities have affected their performance. The OPEC+ will gradually lift the voluntary production cuts starting from April and may increase production for the second time in May. The 30-day ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has not been effectively implemented in substance. However, recently, the United States, Russia, and Ukraine have reached some consensus on Black Sea navigation and the protection of energy facilities. Inventory: According to API data, for the week ending March 25, U.S. crude oil inventories dropped significantly by nearly 9 million barrels. However, commercial crude oil inventories have been increasing continuously for several weeks, and the overall inventory remains at a high level. Geopolitics: The U.S. airstrikes against the Houthi armed group in Yemen and Israel's military operations in the Gaza Strip have heightened concerns about the disruption of crude oil supplies in the Middle East. The United States' continuous strengthening of sanctions against Iran and Venezuela also includes a plan to impose a 25% tariff on countries importing Venezuelan crude oil. Production Increase Pressure: The daily supply increments of non-OPEC countries (such as the United States and Brazil) far exceed the global demand growth rate, which has long-term downward pressure on the oil price center. 💎💎💎 USOIL 💎💎💎 🎁 Sell@70.000 - 70.200 🎁 TP 68.5 68.0 67.5 The market has been extremely volatile lately. If you can't figure out the market's direction, you'll only be a cash dispenser for others. If you also want to succeed，Follow the link below to get my daily strategy updates
TVC:USOILShort
by BenGray9
WTI OIL Ultimate long-term guide.WTI Oil (USOIL) has a tendency, like a number of key traditional assets, to follow long-term Cycles. Market psychology more times than not makes investors and the market behave in similar ways (euphoria buying, panic selling) given the same market conditions. Fundamentals and catalysts can often be used as reasons and excuses to confirm the technical trends and long-term Cycles. Oil is no different and on this 1M time-frame analysis we see why. The dominant multi-year pattern is a Channel Down and it has started on the July 2008 All Time High (ATH). Right now it appears that we are inside a Wedge pattern similar to 2011 - 2014 and more specifically on the final Bullish Leg towards the top. The 1M RSI sequence among those two fractals is identical so based on all these parameters we believe WTI will test $90.00 by late 2025 - early 2026 and if rejected, start a brutal long-term sell-off towards the bottom of the Channel Down and the 35.00 - 30.00 range by late 2026 as the Time Cycles suggest. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
4
OIL Today's strategyIn the medium term, because the lower edge of the channel has been broken, the short force is relatively dominant, and crude oil may face certain downward pressure. However, today's crude oil prices are affected by tightening expectations on the supply side, geopolitics and other factors, and the short-term trend is strong, and there is a certain upward momentum on the technical side. Investors need to pay close attention to the breakout of key support and resistance levels. OIL Today's strategy buy@67.5-68 tp:69-69.5 We share various trading signals every day with over 90% accuracy Fans who follow us can get high rewards every day If you want stable income, you can contact me
TVC:USOIL
by HenryClarke
OIL Today's strategyIn the short term, there is a simultaneous advance of the long positions in crude oil. The price has tested the vicinity of $68.5 several times but encountered resistance. Moreover, after reaching around $65.2 at the lower level, it rebounded rapidly. The market still needs further testing. In the short term, it is advisable to sell high and buy low within the range of $68.5 to $65.2. OIL Today's strategy sell@67.5-67.9 buy:65.7-66.2 If you don't know how to do it, you can refer to my transaction.
TVC:USOIL
by HenryClarke
1
WTI OIL turned the 4H MA50 into Support and aiming higher.WTI Oil (USOIL) has broken above the bearish trend of the former Lower Highs and a Channel Up emerged. The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) broke for the first time in almost a month and has now been turned into Support. As long as this holds, we expect Oil to target the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) at $70. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:WTILong
by TradingShot
WTI OIL Massive 4-year Support hit. Bullish reversal ahead??WTI Oil (USOIL) hit on last week's 1W candle the 1M MA100 (red trend-line), a massive long-term Support level that has been holding since the week of April 26 2021, i.e. almost 4 years. At the same time, the price entered the 2-year Support Zone, which has produced all major Bullish Phases (green Rectangles) during this time span. The last one got rejected twice on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Given the fact that this most recent rejection formed the current 2-month Bearish Phase (red Rectangle), which even based on 1W RSI terms, is similar to all previous Bearish Phases that found Support on the 2-year Support Zone, we have a massive long-term Support Cluster in front of us. Naturally, until the 1W MA200 breaks, that should be the first Target of any buy attempts. As a result, we expect $80.00 to be tested by June 2025 the earliest. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:WTILong
by TradingShot
1
WTI OIL hit its 2-year Support. Major rebound possible.WTI Oil (USOIL) didn't fail us on our last bearish idea (February 20, see chart below), where we called the 1D MA50 rejection: The decline didn't just hit our $69.00 Target but also broke below the medium-term Channel Up and entered the 2-year Support Zone. The long-term dynamics should gradually start emerging now and the principle parameter is that every time this Support Zone gets hit, WTI starts strong medium-term rallies. Technically (even on 1W MACD terms), the decline since mid January is very similar with the one of mid April 2023. Both were produced after another Support Zone rebound and before that a long-term Channel Down (red) preceded them. As a result, we expect a strong rebound for at least the next 2 months, which (as in the case of Fractal 1) should initially target at least January's High at $80.50. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:WTILong
by TradingShot
Crude Oil Prices: Double-Edged Sword for Indian Marketers The global crude oil market, a volatile beast, dictates the energy landscape for nations worldwide.1 For India, a nation heavily reliant on oil imports, the fluctuations in crude oil prices carry significant implications.2 While a dip in crude oil prices might seem like a welcome relief, especially for consumers, it presents a complex and often challenging scenario for oil marketing companies (OMCs) operating within the Indian market. This seemingly beneficial drop in prices acts as a double-edged sword, bringing with it a unique set of complexities that stem from market dynamics, government policies, and the intrinsic characteristics of the oil and gas sector.3 The initial and seemingly positive impact of lower crude oil prices is the potential for reduced import costs.4 For a country like India, where a substantial portion of its energy needs are met through imports, this can lead to a decrease in the overall expenditure on crude oil. This reduction can, in turn, alleviate pressure on the nation's current account deficit and theoretically translate to lower fuel prices for consumers. However, this potential benefit is often overshadowed by the ever-present threat of government intervention through excise duty hikes. Governments, seeking to bolster their revenue, often capitalize on falling crude oil prices by increasing excise duties on petrol and diesel.5 This strategic move allows them to capture a significant portion of the savings that would otherwise be passed on to consumers. For OMCs, this translates to a reduction in the potential for increased margins. While they still benefit from reduced raw material expenses, the extent of the gain is substantially diminished. This delicate dance between market forces and government policies creates a complex environment for OMCs to navigate. Furthermore, the expectation of price cuts for end consumers becomes a significant challenge for OMCs. Consumers naturally anticipate a corresponding reduction in fuel prices when crude oil prices decline. However, OMCs must carefully balance this expectation with the need to maintain their financial health. Rapid and substantial price cuts can strain their profitability, especially when coupled with excise duty adjustments. This balancing act requires a delicate approach, as OMCs must ensure their financial stability while remaining responsive to consumer demands. Beyond the immediate impact on OMCs, lower crude oil prices pose a significant challenge to the upstream oil and gas sector. Upstream companies, involved in exploration and production, are directly affected by the decline in realized prices for their crude oil. This can lead to reduced profitability, delayed or cancelled investment projects, and even financial distress for some companies. The economic viability of many oil and gas fields is contingent on a certain price threshold. When prices fall below this level, production becomes less attractive, potentially hindering future energy security. The impact on the gas sector is particularly noteworthy. Natural gas economics are often intertwined with crude oil prices, with gas prices sometimes linked to oil price benchmarks.6 A decline in crude oil prices can thus indirectly affect gas prices, making gas production and distribution less profitable. This can have broader implications for the energy sector, as natural gas is increasingly seen as a cleaner alternative to other fossil fuels.7 Reduced investment in gas infrastructure and production can hinder the transition towards a more sustainable energy mix. Moreover, the volatility associated with fluctuating crude oil prices creates uncertainty for OMCs and the entire energy sector.8 Long-term planning and investment decisions become more difficult when the market is subject to rapid and unpredictable price swings. This uncertainty can deter investment in new projects and hinder the development of a stable and reliable energy supply. This volatility necessitates a robust and adaptable strategy for OMCs to navigate the unpredictable market. From a macroeconomic perspective, while lower crude prices can potentially stimulate economic activity by reducing fuel costs for businesses and consumers, the potential for reduced government revenue due to lower oil prices (if excise duties are not increased) must be considered. In a country like India, where government revenue is crucial for funding infrastructure projects and social programs, a significant decline in oil-related revenue can have far-reaching consequences. This highlights the need for a balanced approach to fiscal policy, ensuring that government revenue remains stable while providing relief to consumers. The challenges posed by lower crude oil prices highlight the need for a balanced and nuanced approach to energy policy. Governments must strike a delicate balance between providing relief to consumers, maintaining fiscal stability, and supporting the long-term health of the oil and gas sector. This requires careful consideration of excise duty adjustments, pricing mechanisms, and investment incentives. A coherent and forward-looking energy policy is essential to navigate the complexities of the global crude oil market and ensure the nation's energy security. In conclusion, while lower crude oil prices may appear to be a boon, they present a complex set of challenges for OMCs and the broader Indian oil and gas sector. The potential for excise duty hikes, concerns about price cuts, and the impact on upstream realisations and gas economics create a double-edged sword scenario. Navigating this complex landscape requires careful policy decisions and a comprehensive understanding of the intricate dynamics of the global energy market. OMCs must remain adaptable and resilient, while governments must implement policies that balance consumer needs with fiscal stability and long-term energy security.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by bryandowningqln
Go long crude oilDear Traders, Currently, crude oil continues its downward trend, though the pace of its decline has moderated, showing signs of bottoming out. Moreover, oil has now pulled back to the critical support zone around the 68 level. Should oil fail to decisively break below this support, a technical rebound could occur at any moment. Additionally, with oil’s relatively low valuation, it becomes increasingly attractive in the market. For short-term trades, I favor initiating long positions on crude oil, with an initial target of a rebound toward the 69.5-70.5 zone, which seems well within reach.Bros, profits are the ultimate goal in trading. Accumulating profits is what changes lives and destinies. Choosing wisely is far more important than just working hard. If you want to replicate trade signals and earn stable profits, or if you want to deeply learn the correct trading logic and techniques, you can consider joining the channel at the bottom of this article!
TVC:USOILLong
by Trader_Marvin
WTI OIL potential rejection leading to the Channel's bottom.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern on the 1D time-frame with the price on a Bearish Leg since its January 15 Higher High. The price is right now being rejected on its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and based on the last two main bearish sequences since July 2024, a 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) max rejection is quite possible here to continue the Bearish Leg. Our Target is the bottom of the Channel Up at $69. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:WTIShort
by TradingShot
WTI OIL Weak price action on the medium-term.WTI Oil (USOIL) is extending the Bearish Leg of the Triangle pattern after the recent January 13 rejection on the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line). Until the 1W RSI turns bearish again, and more importantly the Support Zone gets hit, we expect this bearish trend to be extended. The strongest Demand Level for the past 2 years has been this Support Zone, so our medium-term Target is on its top at $68.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TRADENATION:WTIShort
by TradingShot
1
WTI OIL 4H RSI Bullish Divergence hinting to trend reversal.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a Channel Down pattern since the January 15 High. Since yesterday it appears for the first time to have withdrawn from making Lower Lows. In fact, the 4H RSI has been on Higher Lows since January 27, which is a technical Bullish Divergence. This hints to a potential trend reversal to bullish and the pattern that we can identify emerging is a Channel Up. This current potential bottoming pattern, resembles the January 08 Low which rallied above its 2.5 Fibonacci extension. As a result, we can target the Channel's top (Higher Highs trend-line) at 76.50. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
1
WTI OIL on a Bearish Leg but short-term rebound expected.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern that is unfolding its latest Bearish Leg. This Leg just hit the Higher Lows trend-line from the last bottom, which is so far no different than what took place during the previous Bearish Leg on October 18 2024. The 4H MACD sequences among the two fractals are very similar so, as the October price action did, we expect a marginal breach of the Higher Lows followed by an instant rebound above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and towards the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level. As a result our short-term Target is $74.80. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
WTI OIL Channel Up emerging, aiming at $90.WTI Oil (USOIL) recently broke above its 15-month Lower Highs trend-line that has been keeping it under a bearish trend and is now naturally pulling back. This technical pull-back is so far within the tolerance levels of a bullish trend. The pattern that making use of this trend is a Channel Up, newly emerged and now about to test the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as a Support for the first time since August 14 2024. As long as it holds, we expect the new Bullish Leg to start and as with the Jan - Apr 2024 Channel Up, rise towards the 1.786 Fibonacci extension. Our Target is quite below it at $90.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
2
WTI OIL expecting a +10% rise.WTI Oil (USOIL) has been trading within a Channel Up, supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) since the December 27 break-out. The price has already made contact with the bottom of the pattern (Higher Lows trend-line) so it is already a buy opportunity. The ultimate buy signal technically, however, has been the 4H RSI Higher Lows since the December 06 Low, so it is possible to see one more small pull-back before the trend reverses. Since the previous two Bullish Legs have increased by at least +10% since their 4H RSI Lows, we are targeting $84.40, which is the Resistance 1 level, exactly on the +10% mark. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
Oil Algo Trading Strategy Lost Its Edge?Oil Algorithmic Traders Loosen Grip on Market After Back-to-Back Annual Losses A Shift in the Oil Trading Landscape In the intricate world of oil trading, where fortunes are made and lost on the fluctuations of prices, a significant shift is underway. Algorithmic traders, the computer-driven entities that have come to dominate the market, are pulling back after enduring two consecutive years of losses.1 This retreat marks a notable change in the oil market dynamics, potentially paving the way for a more balanced and predictable trading environment. The Rise of Algorithmic Trading Over the past decade, algorithmic trading, also known as automated or high-frequency trading, has revolutionized financial markets, and the oil market is no exception.2 These sophisticated systems employ complex algorithms and statistical models to identify and exploit trading opportunities at speeds that are impossible for human traders to match.3 Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), a prominent class of algorithmic traders, specialize in trend-following strategies.4 They capitalize on market trends by buying when prices are rising and selling when prices are falling. Their ability to execute trades rapidly and efficiently has made them a dominant force in the oil market, often amplifying price swings and influencing market direction.5 The Tide Turns for Algorithmic Traders However, the reign of algorithmic traders in the oil market has faced a significant setback. According to Bridgeton Research Group, which tracks computer-generated trades, CTAs have posted consecutive annual losses for the first time in more than a decade.6 This downturn can be attributed to several factors, including increased market volatility, unexpected geopolitical events, and the inherent limitations of trend-following strategies in rapidly changing market conditions. As a result of these losses, CTAs are reducing their exposure to crude oil.7 It is estimated that they have decreased the weight of crude in their portfolios to a mere 2% compared to 4% in July 2024.8 This pullback is softening their impact on market movements and reducing their share of open interest, signaling a significant shift in the oil trading landscape.9 The Impact on the Oil The retreat of algorithmic traders from the oil market has several potential implications: 1. Reduced Market Market Volatility: Algorithmic trading, particularly trend-following strategies, has been known to exacerbate price swings in the oil market.10 With their reduced presence, the market may experience less volatility and more gradual price movements. 2. Increased Influence of Fundamental Factors: As the influence of algorithmic trading wanes, fundamental factors such as supply and demand, economic indicators, and geopolitical events may play a more prominent role in determining oil prices. 3. Opportunities for Traditional Traders: The pullback of algorithmic traders could create opportunities for traditional traders who rely on fundamental analysis and market expertise. With less competition from high-speed algorithms, these traders may find it easier to identify and capitalize on profitable trading opportunities. 4. A More Balanced Market: The reduced dominance of algorithmic trading could lead to a more balanced and efficient oil market, where a wider range of factors and participants determines prices. The Future of Algorithmic Trading in Oil While algorithmic traders are currently taking a step back from the oil market, it is unlikely that they will disappear entirely. These sophisticated systems still offer significant advantages in terms of speed, efficiency, and data analysis. As technology continues to advance, algorithmic trading is expected to remain an integral part of the financial landscape. However, the recent losses serve as a reminder that algorithmic trading is not without its risks. These systems are only as good as the algorithms and data they are based on. In rapidly changing and unpredictable markets, even the most sophisticated algorithms can struggle to generate consistent profits. Conclusion The retreat of algorithmic traders from the oil market marks a significant turning point. After years of dominating the trading landscape, these computer-driven entities are pulling back, potentially paving the way for a more balanced and less volatile market. While the long-term impact remains to be seen, this shift underscores the dynamic nature of financial markets and the importance of adapting to changing conditions.
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
WTI OIL Critical crossroads on the 16-month Resistance.WTI Oil (USOIL) is having a strong rally in the past 30 days following the rebound on the 2-year Support Zone. This Zone has contained all 1W candle closings above it, so this rebound is coming as a natural technical reaction for buyers but it is about to face a critical Resistance Cluster. First is the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) but the most important level is the 16-month Lower Highs trend-line that started in late September 2023. Technically, as long as it holds, the price is more likely to get rejected now back towards the Support Zone, so at the moment we are bearish with a 68.00 Target. If the Lower Highs trend-line breaks and WTI closes a 1W candle above it, we don't expect the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) to offer much Resistance, so we will take the small loss on the short and switch to buying. Our Target in that case will be Resistance 1 at 84.50. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
1