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Oilsignals

OIL showing that inflation has peaked.Another inflation (red trend-line) cross study, this time against the WTI Oil (USOIL). It is evident that the correlation between the two is very tight and every time the Oil market started forming a top pattern (circles), the Inflation Rate followed it lower shortly. I will not get into much detail as the chart is pretty self-explanatory. Oil has been on Lower Highs and Lower Lows since the March "war" peak, which is a bearish formation and if it wasn't for that "war" peak, the pattern would have been a Head and Shoulders, which is also a peak formation. With the 1M RSI back below the 70.00 overbought level after breaking above it for the first time since April 2011 and the only the 5th since 2000, it is more likely to have a market top on Oil. As a result, if a correction starts then Inflation which is still on Higher Highs lagging behind, is more likely to peak as well and finally correct back to sustainable levels in the coming months. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
4
WTI OIL testing the top of its 1 month Channel Down.WTI Oil (USOIL) broke today above the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) again after a three day stay below it and is approaching the Lower Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Down it started after the June 14 High. On 4H RSI terms as well, it looks like the V-shaped Lower Highs test of June 29 - July 05 that ultimately led to a sharp sell-off towards the bottom of the Channel. As a result our strategy is to take this favorable R/R sell trade as long as the top of the Channel holds and target the Support (also the 1W MA50 (green trend-line)) at 91.00 and if we get a 1D candle closing below it, then target the multi-year Higher Lows trend-line (dotted line) at 80.00. This pattern is invalidated if the price breaks above the Channel Down and a buy signal will be waiting above the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line), targeting the March 2022 (war) Lower Highs trend-line at 120.00. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
USOIL Short: Shooting Star at 4hr Resistance LevelTrend: The overall trend of the chart is downwards. Candle Sticks: Formation of shooting start at the LH of the chart. Support & Resistance: Price is testing the 4he resistance area by making an LH with a shooting star. Reasoning: The formation of a shooting star at the LH of the 4hr resistance area strongly indicate the price will go down. SL: Place at the previous LH of the chart. TP1, TP2, TP3: Placed according to the Fibonacci retracement levels.
TVC:USOILShort
by sanasaeed
5
WTI OIL hit its 1D MA200 first time in 2022! Bottom can be lowerWTI Crude Oil (USOIL) touched today the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) for the first time in 2022, more specifically since December 21 2021! This strong selling on the market has come after successive Lower Highs since June 14 and a rejection on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). Since the March 08 market High, this may look as the start of a multi-year Bear Cycle but the fall isn't that dramatic yet, as excluding the June 14 High, the market has been ranging sideways (high volatility nonetheless) within a Rectangle pattern since the March drop. This is a make or break moment for the pattern. A break below the Support and naturally the 1D MA200, should seek the 1D MA300 (red trend-line) which priced the markets last Low on December 02 2021, before the mega rally started. A rebound on the Support should test the 1D MA50 on the short-term at least as a Resistance. The most important indicator on this chart though is the RSI, which is displayed on the 1W time-frame. As you see, there is a Channel Down pattern involved, which (with the exception of the March war extreme) has price all of WTI's Highs and Lows since the March 08 2021 High! The best long-term buy on the market can be taken exactly on the Channel's Lower Lows (bottom) trend-line, whether that's on the 1D MA300 or one of the lower Higher Lows trend-lines involved. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
3
WTICOUSD (RESISTANCE ZONE)Hey guys! How are you guys doing! O hope from the previous analysis, the daily fake out from DAILY timeframe got you guys a confirmation and brought toward more downside. What I'm seeing now is that it shall go back and test 110.70 zone and probably bring more downside to 105, 103 and possibly to 95 range. However, shall it break the resistance zone with a strong candle, it will be bring us to a greater height. As oil is a very volatile commodity and can easily go up/down a few dollars so do trade with minimal risk and not overtrade! let me know how you guys think!
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by shiyishiyi
WTI OIL targeting 123.00WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is on a 4 day green 1D candle streak, the longest it has been in a month and is trading above above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). As you see the pattern has been a Channel Up since the March 25 High as the market is attempting to recover the War high (129.50) of March 08. This time the price hasn't just rebounded on the bottom of the Channel Up but also on the longer-term Higher Lows trend-line that started after the December 02 2021 Low. A break below should target the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) but until then we should continue buying towards the top of the Channel. A weekly closing above the 129.50 Resistance should be a long-term extension to the -0.236 Fibonacci extension at 145.00. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
3
Oil Short via Direxion's Inverse $DRIPI have entered a leveraged (2X) short in #oil, via Direxion's Inverse $DRIP ETF. NOTE: This post shows "LONG" because I have BOUGHT $DRIP; #Oil, as the asset class - I am viewing as a SHORT. Not much else to say, other than the #oil #selloff is underway after forming what I see as a double top (see WTICOUSD) and a good risk/reward entry to short. I will continue to provide updates on this one, and as usual, the chart will dictate how to manage the trade. You may recall, I bought oil, via Direxion's $GUSH ETF back in September 2021 (returning over 50%); I officially closed the oil-long ($GUSH) position in April 2022. Let’s see if the oil selloff translates at the gas pump. God Bless!
AMEX:DRIPLong
by ChiefMacro
2
WTI OIL Correction not over yet.WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) is on a strong 3 day correction. Its long-term trend since the December 02 2021 Low is better illustrated if we apply the Fibonacci Channel starting on that Low. As you see the extensions have worked very well in projecting Higher Highs. Right now the pull-back doesn't seem to be over. Either a bounce of the 1D RSI on its Buy Zone is needed or a hit on the price's Internal Higher Lows trend-line. The 1D MA100 (green trend-line) happens to be exactly there, which is a trend-line untouched since December 27 2021. A rebound there can target the 1.5 Fibonacci extension again. On the other hand, a closing below the 0.0 Fib level can see Oil test the -0.5 extension for the first time, with the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) supporting just below. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
4
WTI OIL heading to $160 long-termThis is not a new chart I'm sharing with you on WTI Crude Oil today, I've initially posted it 2 months ago, calling for a medium-term consolidation and then bullish break-out when the Resistance breaks, based on the striking similarities with the September 2020 - March 2021 pattern: It is time to update my thesis, as the Resistance broke and the similarities continue to be striking both in candle and RSI terms. The analysis is on the 1W time-frame, with the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) standing out. On the May 31 2021 1W candle, when the price broke and closed the week above the prior High/ Resistance, Oil eventually reached the 1.618 Fibonacci extension level. Currently that Fib level is at 159.00. With the 1W RSI well above its MA, it appears that WTI has enough momentum to break its prior High/ Resistance by July. This is a long-term thesis. I will be making updates on the 1D time-frame for shorter term trades. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by TradingShot
9
Oil:How Hezbollah Is Sparking Instability In Latin AmericaFirst Covid,Now Hizbolla.AGAIN! Geopolitical instability is on the rise in Latin America, and an unlikely player may be partially to blame. Hezbollah, a U.S. designated terrorist organization, has established a strong presence in the region. The organization has turned to illicit activities to bolster its finances. Extreme socioeconomic inequality, weak central governments, organized crime, and the vast profits generated by cocaine have inflamed geopolitical instability in Latin America for decades. That confluence of factors has created a fertile environment for illegal armed groups pursuing ideological goals, the substantial earnings that the narcotics trade generates, or both. This is highlighted by the ongoing violent conflict between drug cartels in Mexico, Colombia’s decades-long low-intensity asymmetric multi-party civil war, and the near-failure of strife-torn Venezuela, a country that boasts the world’s largest oil reserves. That along with weak regional governments and deep-rooted socioeconomic inequality produces an ideal climate for organized crime and terrorist organizations to thrive. One non-government armed group taking advantage of the opportunities present in Latin America is the militant Lebanese Shia political organization and U.S. designated terrorist organization; Hezbollah. The assassination of a prominent Paraguayan organized crime prosecutor in Colombia, who was involved in a series of high-profile investigations into transnational criminal networks operating in South America, sparked fears that organized crime’s power in the region is rising once again. That is fueling further fears of rising regional insecurity and heightened geopolitical risk, thereby impacting foreign investment inflows and economic growth. Even extractive industries are not immune from the fallout, with Colombia’s hydrocarbon sector already under considerable pressure and failing to lift production to pre-pandemic levels. Related: Germany Expects Oil Embargo Decision This Week The tri-border area comprised of Puerto Iguazu Argentina, Ciudad del Este Paraguay and Foz do Iguazu Brazil, has long been fertile ground for organized crime and illegal armed groups. Illicit activities in the region are commonplace with its billion-dollar economy fueled by cocaine smuggling, human trafficking, illegal arms sales, document forgery, and money laundering. The region’s importance as a cocaine trafficking hub has risen with the growing power of Brazilian organized crime groups and increased Bolivian cocaine production, which according to the Whitehouse reached a record of 312 metric tons in 2020. For those reasons, the tri-border region is an ideal location for Hezbollah to scale up its illegal businesses, but it is not the only part of South America where the terrorist organization has established a destabilizing presence. Hezbollah has constructed a well-oiled money laundering and cocaine trafficking network in Latin America. The militant Shia Islamist political group has been progressively scaling-up illicit operations, notably drug smuggling and money laundering. Analysts estimate that narco-trafficking and money laundering operations raise more money for Hezbollah than any other of its businesses, highlighting how important those activities are to the organization. In fact, narcotics seizures and investigations by European police agencies point to Hezbollah being a leading regional drug trafficking organization that is increasingly dependent on criminal enterprises to fund its operations such as terror attacks. Related: Biden Calls Energy Crisis "Incredible Transition" The U.S. designated terrorist group established a notable presence in the tri-border area to take advantage of the highly profitable illicit opportunities which exist in the region and boost earnings. Between 2016 and 2021 the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration and Paraguayan authorities progressively dismantled a Hezbollah cocaine trafficking ring operating out of the tri-border area. The Paraguayan prosecutor assassinated in Colombia had previously worked with the DEA on investigations involving Hezbollah. This sparked speculation that not only was his murder an act of a transnational criminal syndicate but that it could be linked to the activities of the Lebanese militant group in South America’s tri-border region. Aside from the U.S., very few countries in Latin America have truly recognized the threat posed by Hezbollah. Official action against the militant Lebanese organization has been slow to materialize despite Hezbollah being engaged in a wide range of illicit activities in the tri-border area. It took Argentina, the first state in Latin America to do so, until July 2019 to designate the militant Lebanese Shia group as a terrorist organization. That was despite Hezbollah, which is used by Teheran as a proxy combatant in its fight against Israel, murdering 85 and injuring hundreds in the 1994 suicide bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires. Argentina’s decision was followed by Paraguay in August 2019, then Colombia and Honduras in January 2020. However, the threat posed by Hezbollah in Latin America is not fully recognized by many of the region’s governments, particularly with the Shia militant group having established a sizable footprint in Venezuela. Shia Iran, which has emerged as a key ally of President Nicolas Maduro’s pariah regime, is also the chief backer of Hezbollah an organization that Teheran uses as a proxy in its conflict with Israel and Saudi Arabia. The financial desperation of Maduro’s autocratic regime saw it, especially after the Trump administration ratcheted-up sanctions in 2019, building close ties with illegal armed groups operating in Venezuela. Those groups control vast swaths of the country and generate considerable income from illicit activities including illegal mining, extortion, and cocaine trafficking. They are not only pivotal political backers of the autocratic Maduro regime but key revenue sources for a fiscally beleaguered government. It is for these reasons that Hezbollah emerged as a crucial source of income for Caracas, which in turn allowed the U.S. designated terror group to establish substantial illicit operations in Venezuela. The importance of criminal networks to the survival of the crumbling Maduro regime sees authorities not only turning a blind eye to the activities of illegal armed groups but openly supporting and even involved in them. This has allowed illegal armed groups to flourish in the near-failed state with leftist Colombian guerillas and Venezuelan colectivos establishing large-scale operations, notably in those areas with little to no state presence. Hezbollah, because of its close ties with the Maduro regime, has become a major player in illicit activities in Venezuela. One of the terror group’s most prominent supporters is Venezuela’s Minister of Petroleum, Tareck Zaidan El Aissami Maddah, who is of Iraqi Lebanese descent. He, according to Washington, is one of Hezbollah’s main benefactors with his largesse allegedly including providing over 10,000 Venezuelan passports to members of the militant group as well as citizens of Syria, Iran, and Lebanon. It is also alleged by the DEA and U.S. Department of Justice that he is a pivotal figure involved in cocaine trafficking in Venezuela. Those events made Maduro’s Venezuela, like the tri-border area, a transnational hub for illicit activities, notably illegal mining, arms smuggling, money laundering and cocaine trafficking. While Hezbollah has established a solid footprint in Venezuela, seeing it emerge as a credible threat to security and political stability in northern South America, the terror group is also bolstering its presence in neighboring Colombia. The reason for this is quite simple; Colombia is the world’s largest producer of cocaine. According to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime Colombia’s estimated 2020 cocaine production grew by 8% year over year to a record 1.2 million metric tons or nearly four times that of Bolivia. Colombian illegal armed groups operating in the strife-torn Andean country and neighboring oil-rich Venezuela are the principal sources of cocaine for Hezbollah’s narcotics-trafficking operations. Colombia’s significant increase in cocaine production is responsible for a sharp uptick in violence in recent years, notably in those regions, like Catatumbo on the Venezuelan border, where coca is the primary cash crop. That has occurred despite Colombia’s government implementing a peace deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC – Spanish initials), the largest illegal armed group in the country’s decades-long civil war, in 2016. After the FARC demobilized the last remaining leftist guerillas the National Liberation Army (ELN – Spanish initials) moved to fill the void it left in many regions and take control of lucrative coca cropping territory and smuggling routes. That intensified conflict with Colombia’s largest organized crime organization the Gulf Clan as well as smaller dissident FARC groups, who refused to accept the 2016 peace agreement, and other illegal armed groups. For decades Hezbollah has focused on infiltrating the Lebanese and Shia Arab communities in Colombia, which are primarily centered around the Caribbean port city of Barranquilla and border city Maicao well-known for smuggling. The city of Maicao in the department of La Guajira has the only mosque in the region known, which is known as La Mezquita the third largest such structure in Latin America. The building was designed by Iranian architect Ali Namazi and is a focal point for the Islamic faith and culture in northern South America. Through its considerable efforts to penetrate Colombia’s Shia community, Hezbollah has gained an influential voice among various Lebanese and Arab familial clans that hold significant commercial and political power in the Andean country. As early as 2004 it was established there was a relationship between FARC and Hezbollah cells for the purposes of cocaine trafficking and money laundering. While the FARC had demobilized by the end of 2017 there were various groups who refused to recognize the agreement, remaining active in their struggle against the state. Those dissidents have expanded significantly over the last two years, recruiting from former combatants and disenfranchised youth, because of President Ivan Duque’s failure to implement the peace deal and Colombia’s worsening economy. That is a key driver of the spike in violence which is impacting Colombia’s hydrocarbon sector with crude oil and natural gas production yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels. The growing scope and scale of Hezbollah’s operations in South America, notably in Venezuela and now Colombia, has the potential to act as a major destabilizing force within the region. Lawlessness, violence, and chronic socioeconomic inequality have long weighed on economic development in the region. Hezbollah’s growing regional influence bolsters Iran’s presence in Latin America allowing it to challenge regional U.S. hegemony, adding an additional destabilizing force to an already volatile part of the world. Until the power of Hezbollah and other illegal armed groups is curbed and eradicated, considerable uncertainty and risk will continue to weigh on Latin America’s economic development, foreign investment, and the region’s economically crucial oil industry.
OANDA:BCOUSDShort
by DaveBrascoFX
USOIL Crude oil : Russian oil ban, what's next? 4.5The pennant consolidation opened the week with a breakout and a retest confirmation of the breakout. Consolidation took place between Jan - April 2022, With a high of ~128 and a low of ~88. The breakout is a major bullish technical alert, indicating new daily up-trend. Resistance levels on the new up-trend are: *106.80 - 108.50 *114.60 - 116.40 *125 - 127.80 Retest potential to the downside: *Consolidation retest - 100-101.50 *Consolidation support floor - 96.50-98.20 A break below consolidation may lead to trend reversal, but for now bullish indications on full alert! Russian oil sanctions are increasing and we have 1 million barrels a day off circulation as of now, this amount is expected to double soon, Bernard Looney, CEO of BP oil company says. This is a fundamental trigger for the technical breakout. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Thank you so much for reading! If you found my idea useful please like and follow - It would truly mean a lot to me. I promise to respond to any and all questions/comments, so don't hesitate! Always be careful trading and make your own research, best of luck. -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILLong
by Exactus
2