Oil:How Hezbollah Is Sparking Instability In Latin AmericaFirst Covid,Now Hizbolla.AGAIN!
Geopolitical instability is on the rise in Latin America, and an unlikely player may be partially to blame.
Hezbollah, a U.S. designated terrorist organization, has established a strong presence in the region.
The organization has turned to illicit activities to bolster its finances.
Extreme socioeconomic inequality, weak central governments, organized crime, and the vast profits generated by cocaine have inflamed geopolitical instability in Latin America for decades. That confluence of factors has created a fertile environment for illegal armed groups pursuing ideological goals, the substantial earnings that the narcotics trade generates, or both. This is highlighted by the ongoing violent conflict between drug cartels in Mexico, Colombia’s decades-long low-intensity asymmetric multi-party civil war, and the near-failure of strife-torn Venezuela, a country that boasts the world’s largest oil reserves. That along with weak regional governments and deep-rooted socioeconomic inequality produces an ideal climate for organized crime and terrorist organizations to thrive. One non-government armed group taking advantage of the opportunities present in Latin America is the militant Lebanese Shia political organization and U.S. designated terrorist organization; Hezbollah. The assassination of a prominent Paraguayan organized crime prosecutor in Colombia, who was involved in a series of high-profile investigations into transnational criminal networks operating in South America, sparked fears that organized crime’s power in the region is rising once again. That is fueling further fears of rising regional insecurity and heightened geopolitical risk, thereby impacting foreign investment inflows and economic growth. Even extractive industries are not immune from the fallout, with Colombia’s hydrocarbon sector already under considerable pressure and failing to lift production to pre-pandemic levels.
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The tri-border area comprised of Puerto Iguazu Argentina, Ciudad del Este Paraguay and Foz do Iguazu Brazil, has long been fertile ground for organized crime and illegal armed groups. Illicit activities in the region are commonplace with its billion-dollar economy fueled by cocaine smuggling, human trafficking, illegal arms sales, document forgery, and money laundering. The region’s importance as a cocaine trafficking hub has risen with the growing power of Brazilian organized crime groups and increased Bolivian cocaine production, which according to the Whitehouse reached a record of 312 metric tons in 2020. For those reasons, the tri-border region is an ideal location for Hezbollah to scale up its illegal businesses, but it is not the only part of South America where the terrorist organization has established a destabilizing presence.
Hezbollah has constructed a well-oiled money laundering and cocaine trafficking network in Latin America. The militant Shia Islamist political group has been progressively scaling-up illicit operations, notably drug smuggling and money laundering. Analysts estimate that narco-trafficking and money laundering operations raise more money for Hezbollah than any other of its businesses, highlighting how important those activities are to the organization. In fact, narcotics seizures and investigations by European police agencies point to Hezbollah being a leading regional drug trafficking organization that is increasingly dependent on criminal enterprises to fund its operations such as terror attacks.
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The U.S. designated terrorist group established a notable presence in the tri-border area to take advantage of the highly profitable illicit opportunities which exist in the region and boost earnings. Between 2016 and 2021 the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration and Paraguayan authorities progressively dismantled a Hezbollah cocaine trafficking ring operating out of the tri-border area. The Paraguayan prosecutor assassinated in Colombia had previously worked with the DEA on investigations involving Hezbollah. This sparked speculation that not only was his murder an act of a transnational criminal syndicate but that it could be linked to the activities of the Lebanese militant group in South America’s tri-border region.
Aside from the U.S., very few countries in Latin America have truly recognized the threat posed by Hezbollah. Official action against the militant Lebanese organization has been slow to materialize despite Hezbollah being engaged in a wide range of illicit activities in the tri-border area. It took Argentina, the first state in Latin America to do so, until July 2019 to designate the militant Lebanese Shia group as a terrorist organization. That was despite Hezbollah, which is used by Teheran as a proxy combatant in its fight against Israel, murdering 85 and injuring hundreds in the 1994 suicide bombing of a Jewish community center in Buenos Aires. Argentina’s decision was followed by Paraguay in August 2019, then Colombia and Honduras in January 2020.
However, the threat posed by Hezbollah in Latin America is not fully recognized by many of the region’s governments, particularly with the Shia militant group having established a sizable footprint in Venezuela. Shia Iran, which has emerged as a key ally of President Nicolas Maduro’s pariah regime, is also the chief backer of Hezbollah an organization that Teheran uses as a proxy in its conflict with Israel and Saudi Arabia. The financial desperation of Maduro’s autocratic regime saw it, especially after the Trump administration ratcheted-up sanctions in 2019, building close ties with illegal armed groups operating in Venezuela. Those groups control vast swaths of the country and generate considerable income from illicit activities including illegal mining, extortion, and cocaine trafficking. They are not only pivotal political backers of the autocratic Maduro regime but key revenue sources for a fiscally beleaguered government. It is for these reasons that Hezbollah emerged as a crucial source of income for Caracas, which in turn allowed the U.S. designated terror group to establish substantial illicit operations in Venezuela.
The importance of criminal networks to the survival of the crumbling Maduro regime sees authorities not only turning a blind eye to the activities of illegal armed groups but openly supporting and even involved in them. This has allowed illegal armed groups to flourish in the near-failed state with leftist Colombian guerillas and Venezuelan colectivos establishing large-scale operations, notably in those areas with little to no state presence. Hezbollah, because of its close ties with the Maduro regime, has become a major player in illicit activities in Venezuela. One of the terror group’s most prominent supporters is Venezuela’s Minister of Petroleum, Tareck Zaidan El Aissami Maddah, who is of Iraqi Lebanese descent. He, according to Washington, is one of Hezbollah’s main benefactors with his largesse allegedly including providing over 10,000 Venezuelan passports to members of the militant group as well as citizens of Syria, Iran, and Lebanon. It is also alleged by the DEA and U.S. Department of Justice that he is a pivotal figure involved in cocaine trafficking in Venezuela. Those events made Maduro’s Venezuela, like the tri-border area, a transnational hub for illicit activities, notably illegal mining, arms smuggling, money laundering and cocaine trafficking.
While Hezbollah has established a solid footprint in Venezuela, seeing it emerge as a credible threat to security and political stability in northern South America, the terror group is also bolstering its presence in neighboring Colombia. The reason for this is quite simple; Colombia is the world’s largest producer of cocaine. According to the UN Office on Drugs and Crime Colombia’s estimated 2020 cocaine production grew by 8% year over year to a record 1.2 million metric tons or nearly four times that of Bolivia. Colombian illegal armed groups operating in the strife-torn Andean country and neighboring oil-rich Venezuela are the principal sources of cocaine for Hezbollah’s narcotics-trafficking operations.
Colombia’s significant increase in cocaine production is responsible for a sharp uptick in violence in recent years, notably in those regions, like Catatumbo on the Venezuelan border, where coca is the primary cash crop. That has occurred despite Colombia’s government implementing a peace deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC – Spanish initials), the largest illegal armed group in the country’s decades-long civil war, in 2016. After the FARC demobilized the last remaining leftist guerillas the National Liberation Army (ELN – Spanish initials) moved to fill the void it left in many regions and take control of lucrative coca cropping territory and smuggling routes. That intensified conflict with Colombia’s largest organized crime organization the Gulf Clan as well as smaller dissident FARC groups, who refused to accept the 2016 peace agreement, and other illegal armed groups.
For decades Hezbollah has focused on infiltrating the Lebanese and Shia Arab communities in Colombia, which are primarily centered around the Caribbean port city of Barranquilla and border city Maicao well-known for smuggling. The city of Maicao in the department of La Guajira has the only mosque in the region known, which is known as La Mezquita the third largest such structure in Latin America. The building was designed by Iranian architect Ali Namazi and is a focal point for the Islamic faith and culture in northern South America. Through its considerable efforts to penetrate Colombia’s Shia community, Hezbollah has gained an influential voice among various Lebanese and Arab familial clans that hold significant commercial and political power in the Andean country. As early as 2004 it was established there was a relationship between FARC and Hezbollah cells for the purposes of cocaine trafficking and money laundering. While the FARC had demobilized by the end of 2017 there were various groups who refused to recognize the agreement, remaining active in their struggle against the state. Those dissidents have expanded significantly over the last two years, recruiting from former combatants and disenfranchised youth, because of President Ivan Duque’s failure to implement the peace deal and Colombia’s worsening economy. That is a key driver of the spike in violence which is impacting Colombia’s hydrocarbon sector with crude oil and natural gas production yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels.
The growing scope and scale of Hezbollah’s operations in South America, notably in Venezuela and now Colombia, has the potential to act as a major destabilizing force within the region. Lawlessness, violence, and chronic socioeconomic inequality have long weighed on economic development in the region. Hezbollah’s growing regional influence bolsters Iran’s presence in Latin America allowing it to challenge regional U.S. hegemony, adding an additional destabilizing force to an already volatile part of the world. Until the power of Hezbollah and other illegal armed groups is curbed and eradicated, considerable uncertainty and risk will continue to weigh on Latin America’s economic development, foreign investment, and the region’s economically crucial oil industry.
Oilsignals
USOIL Crude oil : Russian oil ban, what's next? 4.5The pennant consolidation opened the week with a breakout and a retest confirmation of the breakout.
Consolidation took place between Jan - April 2022, With a high of ~128 and a low of ~88.
The breakout is a major bullish technical alert, indicating new daily up-trend.
Resistance levels on the new up-trend are:
*106.80 - 108.50
*114.60 - 116.40
*125 - 127.80
Retest potential to the downside:
*Consolidation retest - 100-101.50
*Consolidation support floor - 96.50-98.20
A break below consolidation may lead to trend reversal, but for now bullish indications on full alert!
Russian oil sanctions are increasing and we have 1 million barrels a day off circulation as of now, this amount is expected to double soon, Bernard Looney, CEO of BP oil company says.
This is a fundamental trigger for the technical breakout.
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OIL BRENT Local Short!!OIL_BRENT is trading in a narrwing wedge
And will soon retest a horizontal resistance at 112.45
A bearish move down will follow
However, IF the resistance is broken to the upside
The setup is invalid
Crude Oil Rally PatternCrude Oil USOIL seems to be following a very similar pattern
Following this Idea, the next two days we'll be waiting for a pull back to 100 level, and then get into another rally.
The Question is, Will Crude Oil Stay on pattern? or news and the economic calendar will take it out?
WTI OIL Scalping medium-term. Check these break-out levels.On my last WTI Oil analysis, I stated that the price action was neutral, which favored scalping:
Two weeks later, that still remains the case as we remain within the 117.00 Resistance and 93.10 Support, with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) being used as the pivot trend-line. For now, a high return strategy would be scalping the 1D Bollinger Bands (chart on the left).
On the longer-term 1W time-frame though (chart on the right), we see that the last 5 months resemble the price action of late 2020/ early 2021. The 1W TSI sequence is fairly similar and the longer we trade sideways on the medium-term the more it favors the consolidation bias of the accumulation scenario of March - April 2021 and then bullish break-out towards the 1.618 Fibonacci extension. A break below the 'Prior High' level of 85.00 would break both the 1D MA200 and the 1W MA200 (orange trend-lines on both charts) and should target the 66.10 December Low at least.
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WTI OIL Neutral short-term buy watch these break-out levels.WTI Oil (USOIL) just broke above the Lower Highs trend-line that started after the brutal March 08 multi-year High. The 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) has turned into a short-term Support while the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) remains the short-term Resistance.
Despite the Lower Highs trend-line, the price action remains rather neutral due to March's wild swings and high volatility, unless either the 93.10 Support or the 117.00 Resistance break.
A break below 93.10 should be bearish towards the 1D MA200 (red trend-line) and then the December 20 low, but still it would be best to get a closing below the 85.50 High of 2021 before engaging into long-term selling.
A break above 117.00 should be bullish towards the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (152.60) long-term, which is the less likely scenario.
The safest strategy on the medium-term is to scalp inside the neutral zone.
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Long-term oil analysis #oilsome notes:
1_In World War II, because the United States won the war, it said that my dollar should be the reference currency
2_The United States did not fulfill its contract and did not store gold against the dollar
3_European countries realized and wanted to buy gold under the same law for every $ 35 an ounce of gold
4_Meanwhile, Arab countries imposed sanctions on Europe and oil prices rose
5_Now European countries needed dollars to buy oil
6_If oil prices are low, it is very dangerous for
the United States because negative inflation in the United States will form and stagnate.
Because the United States runs its country with
debt, it's the best inflationary position
7- America wants a lot of production so that the
industries will stop working and there will be an increase
$MARPS Next Target PTs 32-45 and higherMarine Petroleum Trust, together with its subsidiary, Marine Petroleum Corporation, operates as a royalty trust in the United States. As of June 30, 2021, the company had an overriding royalty interest in 55 oil and natural gas leases covering approximately 199,868 gross acres located in the Central and Western areas of the Gulf of Mexico off the coasts of Louisiana and Texas. Marine Petroleum Trust was incorporated in 1956 and is based in Dallas, Texas.
$HUSA Next Target PTs 16-35 and higher Long term PT 150 and highHouston American Energy Corp., an independent energy company, acquires, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, crude oil, and condensate. Its oil and gas properties are located primarily in the Texas Permian Basin, the onshore Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast region, and in the South American country of Colombia. As of December 31, 2020, the company owned interests in four gross wells. Houston American Energy Corp. was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Houston, Texas.
$IMPP Next Target PTs 9-18 and higherImperial Petroleum Inc. provides international seaborne transportation services to oil producers, refineries, and commodities traders. It carries refined petroleum products, such as gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and jet fuel, as well as edible oils and chemicals; and crude oils. As of March 29, 2022, the company owned four medium range refined petroleum product tankers and one Aframax crude oil tanker with a total capacity of 305,804 deadweight tons. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Athens, Greece.
WTI bulls step in with price holding back above $100bblsThe West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil market has rallied a bit on Wednesday to break above the top of the candlestick from Tuesday. If you remember, the Tuesday candlestick was what I referred to as a potential “binary trade”, meaning that if we can break above it, the market could go higher. After all, the neutral candlestick suggests that we are in the midst of trying to figure out whether or not momentum will pick up.
Now that we have broken decisively to the upside, the market looks very likely to continue going higher, perhaps reaching towards the $120 level. Given enough time, we could go all the way to the $130 level yet again. The market has been very bullish, but I do not want to see some type of parabolic move, because as you can see, we had recently had one of those, which of course fell apart quite drastically. There is only a certain amount of momentum that can come into a market without it falling apart, so the sustainability of the uptrend is what I am looking for.
Looking at the chart, the 50-day EMA is sitting at the $96.55 level and climbing. As long as we can stay above this indicator, it does suggest that we are still in an uptrend. The size of the candlestick is rather impressive, so I think we will continue to see buyers on every short-term dip. The market has been very noisy but has also been decidedly positive. I have no scenario in which I am willing to short the oil market anytime soon, so looking at dips as potential buying opportunities will continue to be the way to approach the market. That being said, we will eventually run into “demand destruction”, but I do not think we are anywhere near that right now.
Ultimately, this is a market that I think has quite a bit of upward mobility to it, especially as the war in Ukraine rages on. The lack of Russian oil on the open market is going to continue to cause issues, but inflation itself is reason enough to think that oil should continue to go higher. Regardless, this is a market that continues to offer plenty of opportunities for those willing to be patient enough to find value.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the US gave written guarantees that Western sanctions against the country will not impact future trade with Iran, CNBC reported on 18 March.
After hovering lower for two weeks, Brent briefly returned to above $120/bbl on 25 March on reports that Yemen’s Houthi rebels – backed by Iran – launched fresh attacks on Saudia Arabia. The attack hit Saudi Aramco’s oil depot in Jeddah and other facilities in Riyadh. WTI also rose to above $114/bbl on the day.
The man who predicted crude oil $120 in 2020 when crude was at $30 alltime low
The EIA raised the trading price of Crude oil by $22 per barrel to an average of $105.22 per barrel in its March Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), and the American benchmark West Texas Intermediate (WTI) to $101.17 per barrel. The higher price projection includes concerns about supply disruptions and additional sanctions as a result of Russia’s continued invasion of Ukraine.
Brent is expected to fall to $88.98 per barrel post-2022, whereas WTI will fall to $84.98 per barrel. The EIA emphasized, however, that the price projection is ‘very unpredictable’, as actual price outcomes will be determined by the severity of Russia’s sanctions, any new potential sanctions, and the impact of individual business actions.
In 2020, during the COVID outbreak, the event suddenly draws Crude & Brent oil prices. The crude oil (WTI) starts falling from $65/barrel to $19/barrel.
The continuous fall frightens investors all over the globe. But, Ankit, Wealth Manager (USA), who is also an entrepreneur & investor at that time publicly said on his YouTube video that crude will touch($90-$100) soon due to macroeconomic conditions which central banks created by putting interest rates at an all-time low.
Ankit said in 2020, due to this petrol prices will touch Rs.100 first time in India. In 2022, he seems indeed right. Today petrol prices all over India almost hit Rs.100 due to an international price hike in Brent oil.
Today also his video is still available on his YouTube platform which he created by the name of ‘Market Maestroo’.
This video he released on Dec.25 2020. One can check it as a fact as well. He is one of the only Wealth Managers in the Globe who predicted a rise in Crude oil & only economist in India who predicted Rs100/litre of petrol.
Apart from this, his many predictions in recent times come true which also become the centre of attraction for many
investors. He also predicted inflation is coming & USA inflation may touch 10%. Today Feb 2022, USA inflation is sitting at 30 year high of 8%.
After such successful predictions, Ankit, Wealth Manager (USA), now started gaining popularity & limelight. One of his famous quote in investing is “Investing is done with a calm mind, not to calm your mind
WTI oil outlook: Oil hits $130 per barrel on fears that Russian energy products
WTI bulls move in as US and EU move towards sanctioning Russia further.
US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) does little to cool down supply concerns.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose on Monday on persisting supply concerns as Russian energy sanctions are very much on the table following the Russian forces' civilian killings in north Ukraine. For a fresh high of the day, at $103.82. WTI spot is up by some 4.5% as White House's National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, announced that the US is working with European allies to coordinate further sanctions on Russia.
Sullivan said that they have concluded Russia has committed war crimes, Bucha offers further evidence to support that, pointing to a protracted war. '' Ukraine-Russia conflict may not be just a few more weeks, could be months.''
Ukraine’s top prosecutor has said 410 bodies had been found in towns recaptured from retreating Russian forces around Kyiv as part of an investigation into possible war crimes. The weekend media reported mass killings of civilians in the town of Bucha which had been under Russian occupation until recently.
The reports led to an array of calls from within the European Union for the bloc to go further in punishing Moscow. Consequently, a fifth package of sanctions against Russia is being arranged with the new round of measures expected to be approved later this week.
Meanwhile and despite the release of 180-million barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) and an agreement last week from members of the International Energy Agency (IEA) to release some of their own strategic reserves, oil is firmer due to the persistence of geopolitical concerns.
"The global oil market remains in deep deficit of likely 1.5 mb/d over the last 4 weeks, before the loss of Russian supply even started, with global inventories at their lowest levels in recent history on a demand-adjusted basis and with limited OPEC and shale elasticity in months to come. Demand destruction requires higher prices, yet this dynamic is being nullified by increased government interventions in cutting gasoline taxes," Goldman Sachs said in a report.
''Indeed, while the SPR release can quell near-term tightness concerns, it does not solve the longer-term issues in the crude market. Structural deficit conditions could still persist down the road as these reserves will need to be replenished at a time when global spare capacity and inventory levels will still be stretched,'' analysts at TD Securities explained.
''In this sense, the right tail in energy markets is set to remain structurally fat as depleted reserves would add to the existing risks of self-sanctioning, stretched spare capacity across OPEC+, constrained shale production, an uncertain Iran deal and OECD inventories at their lowest since the Arab Spring. We expect this vast array of supply risks to remain the driving force in the energy market.''
WTI OIL is correcting. Continue to fall or new rally ahead?A month ago when WTI Oil was testing historic Highs due to the escalation of the Ukraine - Russia war, I called for the need to pull-back to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line):
That day turned out to be the market top (to this date) and Oil did pull-back to the 1D MA50. In fact after the first 1D MA50 test (and hold), the price rebounded but only managed to make a Lower High and eventually got rejected back towards the 1D MA50 again, which held (so far) for the 2nd time. It is obvious that as long as it holds, it makes a stronger case for a new rebound. If that breaks above the prior Lower High/ Resistance of 117.00, then we can claim that the long-term bullish trend will be extended and in the next 3 months we will see successive Higher Highs. The basis for this, as I also analyzed on my March 08 analysis, is the similarities of the past 6 months of Oil's price action with the September 2020 - March 2021 sequence.
On the other hand, if the 1D MA50 fails and a 1D candle closes below it, WTI should seek the next Resistance Zone which consists of the Prior High of 85.50 and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which is currently at 80.75. A closing below the 1D MA200, could open the way to a new Bear Cycle.
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Daily Technical Analysis (Brent Oil)In the chart above, Brent Crude Oil has just broken downwards from the 0.38 Fibonacci level. The second red line from the top is another level of support that oil has broken out from. Also, the Stochastic RSI diverged (Top Blue Rectangle). Since these events have occurred, the price of oil has been decreasing.
If oil carries ongoing downwards to the 0.5 Fibonacci level then we could see some good level of support, Stochastic RSI has also just diverged (Bottom Blue Rectangle). So, following this, the yellow line shows my price prediction.
If oil carries on going down it could find some support at 0.5 and then rebound upwards. Then the price could find some resistance at the 0.38 level and if the buying power is strong enough the price could breakout upwards. If the buying power is not strong enough then oil could come back to the 0.5 level. Possibly even break through the 0.5 level, but that in opinion is not that likely.