WTI OIL First buyers on the 4H MA50Pattern: Channel Up and Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Bullish once the price makes contact with the 4H MA50 (strong buy accumulation level since November).
Target: 60.00 (top of the Channel Up), if seeking more risk aim at 62.50 (top of the Megaphone and 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which indicates the Higher High since November).
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Oilsignals
💡Brent Crude Oil - Weekly technical analysis updateMidterm forecast:
54.40 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI uptrend #1 is not broken, bullish wave in price would continue.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 54.40 on 02/01/2021, so more gains to resistance(s) 62.30, 66.05, 70.35 and more heights is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 73.
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💡Brent Crude Oil - Weekly technical analysis updateMidterm forecast:
54.40 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI uptrend #1 is not broken, bullish wave in price would continue.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 54.40 on 02/01/2021, so more gains to resistance(s) 62.30, 66.05, 70.35 and more heights is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 73.
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WTI OIL Wait for a 4H MA50 test before enteringPattern: Channel Up & Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Buy once contact is made again with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line).
Target: 60.00 (top of the Channel).
Most recent WTI idea:
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Crude Oil Long SetupOil Long Setup
Entry: $53.68
TP & RR: $57.65
Stop Loss: $52.57
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
Contrary to most expectations that Oil was overpriced, it continues to trend up. I won't open a long order at the current level, nor would I short obvious strength. However, if price retraces back to previous resistance, which is now support, I am more than happy to buy. I believe we are now in a channel and we are yet to see how we go through the awaited $55-$56 level.
With that being said, we may not get filled at all. Should this be the case, we will be targeting the upper channel with a short order.
Judgement time for WTI Oil according to the DXY.Simple chart comparison on a +12 year time span. Oil on a Channel Down, DXY on a Channel Up. Every time DXY kept its Support (green zones), Oil failed to make a Higher High and break its Lower Highs trend-line.
Oil hasn't made a Higher High since July 2008 and the Sub-prime mortgage crisis. Is it time to do so, if DXY breaks its Support this time? Thoughts???
Most recent WTI idea:
Most recent DXY idea:
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Oil Lower High Formation - Short TradeOil Lower High - Short Order
Entry: $53.55
TP & RR: $51.05 (2.38)
Stop Loss: $54.60
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
Oil has entered into a bit of a range recently, but the formation of the lower high on Friday makes me think that we are about to see another lower high, which should then form a lower low. This is where we will be looking to take profit. The Stop Loss is set well above the highest high, so if we are to break that level, then we have clear invalidation of the setup. So, pay attention to the price action around this area, and should it break it, feel free to close the trade prematurely.
The wide SL is purely for decreasing the position size, as I don't want us to lose a full 1% on a trade without a clear signal from my indicators.
Oil Descending Channel - Short TradeOil Descending Channel - Short Position
Entry: $53.16
TP & RR: $51.61 (2.77)
Stop Loss: $53.72
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
Similarly to my previous trade idea about SPX500 from today, I am placing an alert at $53 and I will be patiently waiting to see how price action develops. You never know what's been going on in the traders' and investors' heads over the weekend, so we want to see the volume and a 1h close around that level before opening a position.
I believe we are now in a downtrend channel, which should bring more balance to that longer-than-expected move up. My entry is quite high and we very much may miss it, so I have highlighted the upper trendline as an entry-level suggestion. Any position around that level with a SL place reasonably high should provide a good trade setup. Ultimately, I am expecting that we reach the $49 level (bigger trendline) before we move up again.
Let me know what you think in the comment section below.
💡Brent Crude Oil - Weekly technical analysis updateMidterm forecast:
52.45 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI uptrend #1 is not broken, bullish wave in price would continue.
A peak is formed in daily chart at 57.25 on 01/13/2021, so more losses minimum to Major Support (52.45) is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 61.
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💡Brent Crude Oil - Weekly technical analysis updateMidterm forecast:
52.45 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI uptrend #1 is not broken, bullish wave in price would continue.
A peak is formed in daily chart at 57.25 on 01/13/2021, so more losses minimum to Major Support (52.45) is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 61.
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Oil Double Bounce and Up - Long PositionOIL BUY ORDER
Entry: $52.71
TP & RR: $54.66 (4.88)
Stop Loss: $52.31
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
If you followed my trade idea from yesterday, then you know that I was expecting either for the price to bounce from the lower trendline and then start trending up or break through it and take a deep dive down. While the position is still profitable and you may choose to keep it open, here I am suggesting another alternative of how price action may develop.
I think the price will start zig-zagging around the support level, do a double bottom and then start trending up towards the upper trendline from the channel we already defined. The Market Flow indicator turned green, which in my trading system is an indication to close short orders and look for a long one. Those of you holding the short from yesterday may choose to hedge that trade with a long from that level.
The Stop Loss is fairly close, so feel free to adjust it if you are worried it will get hit (especially if the spread on the exchange you are trading on is fairly big).
WTI OIL needs to hit the 4H MA50 to accumulate buyersPattern: Bullish Megaphone on 4H.
Signal: Buy once contact is made with the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) and after the price consolidates with a Double Bottom. Every drop below the 4H MA50 has been the optimal buy entry.
Target: 53.90 (the Resistance) and for those seeking more risk 56.00.
Most recent WTI signal:
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Oil Time For Reversal - Short TradeOil Short Trade
Entry: $53.76
TP & RR: $52.41
Stop Loss: $54.51
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
So far Oil has respected the channel and I believe that it is now reaching a point of exhaustion. This upper trendline from the channel is also in confluence with a fairly strong resistance level, so I believe a small pullback is due.
The Stop Loss is well above the channel and similarly to the trade from a few days ago, if the price starts pushing up we will close the position because a spike up should follow.
WTI OIL Testing the monthly MA50 for the first time since FebAttention is needed now for WTI Crude Oil traders as the asset has made contact with the 1M MA50. That is the first touch on that trend-line since February 2020, right before the massive March COVID melt-down.
Last time this level was tested as a Resistance, recovering from a similar melt-down, was in December 2017. The price easily broke above it on the next candle and made a top on the -0.382 Fibonacci extension.
Before that, the previous 1M MA50 test as a Resistance, was in June 2009. It failed to close the monthly candle above it and pulled back to the 0.382 Fibonnaci retracement level. Then a few months later, it closed its first candle above it (October 2009) and as in 2018, it peaked just below the -0.382 Fib extension.
What could this mean for oil traders? Well unless we close one 1M candle above the MA50 (53.00), then it is more likely to get a pull back to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level (40.00) before the price peaks on the -0.382 extension (65.00).
Do you agree? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
Most recent WTI signal:
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Oil Ascending Channel - Long OrderOil Ascending Channel Long Position
Entry: $51.69
TP & RR: $52.87 (1.59)
Stop Loss: $50.95
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
After breaking up at the ascending triangle, Oil has now formed an ascending triangle, testing the lower trendline. If it holds I believe that it will make a higher high and potentially trying to test the upper trendline or at the very least do a double top.
My Stop Loss is very conservative here because there may be a fakeout and I don't want to get stopped out (my USDJPY trade is still haunting me I guess). As I am writing this I can see that the price is already going up, so I hope a small pullback will give me the entry I want, after which I will start trailing my SL.
💡Brent Crude Oil - Weekly technical analysis updateMidterm forecast:
52.45 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI uptrend #1 is not broken, bullish wave in price would continue.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 50.55 on 12/23/2020, so more gains to resistance(s) 58.65, 62.30, 66.05 and more heights is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 76.
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💡Brent Crude Oil - Weekly technical analysis updateMidterm forecast:
52.45 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI uptrend #1 is not broken, bullish wave in price would continue.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 50.55 on 12/23/2020, so more gains to resistance(s) 58.65, 62.30, 66.05 and more heights is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 76.
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USOIL Ascending Triangle - Long PositionUSOIL Long Order
Entry: $51.04
TP & RR: $52.49 (2.54)
Stop Loss: $50.47
USOIL Short Order
Entry: $51.50
TP & RR: $50.01 (4.14)
Stop Loss: $51.86
REASONS FOR THE TRADE
As you can see I have mapped two potential trades here, but since the first one is Long, that's the center of the analysis here.
What we see is an ascending triangle in an uptrend, so I expect Oil to have an explosive move up (no pun intended). With that being said, I also think that this trend is starting to get a bit exhausted, so if the price breaks down from the lower trendline I will be looking to open a short position. Alternatively, if it reaches the upper trendline I will hedge my long with a short to protect my profits and look for a suitable place to close the losing trade.