Oilsignals
WTI OIL Double entry Buy SignalPattern: Ascending Channel on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the price just hit the 4H MA50, which has been supporting since November 03. Keep another buy ready in case the price hits the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level (Highs and Lows since November 06 are on a progressive sequence) as the MACD is still open.
Target: 48.00 (just below the 0.382 Fib extension).
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Brent Crude Oil - Weekly technical analysis updateMidterm forecast:
46.50 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
The RSI downtrend #1 is broken, so the probability of continuation of uptrend is increased.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 42.70 on 11/13/2020, so more gains to resistance(s) 48.95, 54.40, 58.65 and more heights is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 69.
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Brent Crude Oil - Weekly technical analysis updateMidterm forecast:
46.50 is a major support, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be uptrend.
Technical analysis:
The RSI downtrend #1 is broken, so the probability of continuation of uptrend is increased.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 42.70 on 11/13/2020, so more gains to resistance(s) 48.95, 54.40, 58.65 and more heights is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 69.
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WTI OIL Trading PlanPattern: Bullish formation based on Fibonacci retracements and extensions. Every Higher Low is on a +0.118 Fibonacci retracement interval. Every Higher High on a -0.118 Fibonacci extension interval.
Signal: Buy near the 0.618 Fib retracement which is also the 4H MA50.
Target: 48.00 (just below the -0.382 Fibonacci extension).
Previous WTI OIL trade:
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WTI . Weekly Technical Analysis UpdateMidterm forecast:
While the price is below the resistance 43.75, beginning of downtrend is expected.
We make sure when the support at 34.60 breaks.
If the resistance at 43.75 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of downtrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI resistance #1 at 65 is not broken, the probability of price increase would be too low.
A trough is formed in daily chart at 40.20 on 11/13/2020, so more gains maximum to Major Resistance (43.75) is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 60.
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WTI OIL Trading PlanPattern: Channel Up on 4H.
Signal: (A) Buy as long as the 4H MA50 is supporting, (B) Sell if it breaks.
Target: (A) 43.40 (September 01 High), (B) 40.20 (just above the 4H MA200).
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Brent Crude Oil - Weekly technical analysis updateMidterm forecast:
While the price is below the resistance 46.50, beginning of downtrend is expected.
We make sure when the support at 36.95 breaks.
If the resistance at 46.50 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of downtrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI downtrend #1 is not broken, bearish wave in price would continue.
A peak is formed in daily chart at 45.44 on 11/11/2020, so more losses to support(s) 41.70, 40.00 and minimum to Major Support (36.95) is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 54.
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Brent Crude Oil - Weekly technical analysis updateMidterm forecast:
While the price is below the resistance 46.50, beginning of downtrend is expected.
We make sure when the support at 36.95 breaks.
If the resistance at 46.50 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of downtrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI downtrend #1 is not broken, bearish wave in price would continue.
A peak is formed in daily chart at 45.44 on 11/11/2020, so more losses to support(s) 41.70, 40.00 and minimum to Major Support (36.95) is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 54.
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OIL made 2 month highs! What is the ceiling for the market?WTI Oil broke above the 2 month Resistance zone of 41.50 - 41.90 and is fast approaching the 43.80 High of August 26 (chart on the left). Needless to say, it broke above the bearish channel and reached the 43.00 Target as I discussed two days ago on the idea below:
How far can this go for the short-term? As the left chart shows (4H time-frame), the MACD hasn't yet rolled over (as it did on September 20), so the uptrend can extend a little further on the short-term before buyers book profits and cause a minor pull-back.
On the long-term though we have to look at the 1D time-frame (right chart), which shows an interesting development. The sequence since the November 02 low, is similar to the one following the late April bottom. The MACD pattenrs are identical. I don't need to remind you that it was the rescue package along with OPEC's production cuts that supported this insane recovery rally back then. This week we had the very encouraging vaccine news.
Can Oil start a similar rally based on such positive news? Is $47 again a realistic number? Feel free to share your work and let me know in the comments section!
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WTI OIL high chances to break its bearish channelPattern: Channel Down on 4H.
Signal: Buy if the Lower Highs trend-line of the Channel Down breaks (practically if the 0.786 Fib breaks), as this time the price broke the 4H MA200 (as opposed to September 18) while the MACD is on a Bullish Cross.
Target: 43.00 (the 0.918 Fib, last Resistance before a full recovery).
Most recent WTI OIL signal:
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WTI . Weekly Technical Analysis UpdateMidterm forecast:
39.70 is a major resistance, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be downtrend.
We will close our open trades, if the Midterm level 39.70 is broken.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI downtrend #1 is not broken, bearish wave in price would continue.
A peak is formed in daily chart at 39.50 on 11/05/2020, so more losses to support(s) 36.30, 34.60, 30.85 and more depths is expected.
Price is below WEMA21, if price rises more, this line can act as dynamic resistance against more gains.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 44.
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WTI . Weekly Technical Analysis UpdateMidterm forecast:
39.70 is a major resistance, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be downtrend.
We will close our open trades, if the Midterm level 39.70 is broken.
Technical analysis:
While the RSI downtrend #1 is not broken, bearish wave in price would continue.
A peak is formed in daily chart at 39.50 on 11/05/2020, so more losses to support(s) 36.30, 34.60, 30.85 and more depths is expected.
Price is below WEMA21, if price rises more, this line can act as dynamic resistance against more gains.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 44.
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OIL - Our strategy of mixing BUY and SELL positionsOur technical analysis on Oil with the major key price levels.
Fundamentally and technically we see a drop, sooner or later, below 30 usd
At this stage there is a 60% drop, or a 40% rise to 42.50 resistance and a possible drop from there at 90% (10% only to break that level)
HOW WE TRADE THIS:
We have SELL and BUY positions at a rate of 7 (buy) to 3 (sell) (70%-30%)
If the price drops then we have a profit from 40% of the positions
If the price rises we will close all BUY positions at the major resistance of 42.5usd and hold our SELL positions for a drop back to where the price is now and the key take profit levels of 36.60, 34.60 , 31.70 and even the all time support of 30$ and 28.50$.
If all goes well we will consider Buying again at that level.
Take a look at how we perfectly sold in September s idea predicitng perfectly the beginning of the drop,
our tutorial on Oil analysis
Brent Crude Oil - Weekly technical analysis updateMidterm forecast:
41.70 is a major resistance, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be downtrend.
We will close our open trades, if the Midterm level 41.70 is broken.
Technical analysis:
The RSI bounced from the resistance #1 at 55 and it prevented price from more gains.
A peak is formed in daily chart at 43.65 on 10/15/2020, so more losses to support(s) 36.95, 33.80, 19.40 and more depths is expected.
Price is below WEMA21, if price rises more, this line can act as dynamic resistance against more gains.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 32.
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Brent Crude Oil - Weekly technical analysis updateMidterm forecast:
41.70 is a major resistance, while this level is not broken, the Midterm wave will be downtrend.
We will close our open trades, if the Midterm level 41.70 is broken.
Technical analysis:
The RSI bounced from the resistance #1 at 55 and it prevented price from more gains.
A peak is formed in daily chart at 43.65 on 10/15/2020, so more losses to support(s) 36.95, 33.80, 19.40 and more depths is expected.
Price is below WEMA21, if price rises more, this line can act as dynamic resistance against more gains.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 32.
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WTI OIL Buy SignalPattern: Channel Down on 4H.
Signal: Buy as the current bearish leg is forming a sequence similar to the September 01 - 14 leg = Death Cross, followed by a Triangle bottom. The signal is invalidated if the Channel breaks the Lower Low trend-line.
Target: The 4H MA200.
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WTI . Weekly Technical Analysis UpdateMidterm forecast:
While the price is below the resistance 43.75, beginning of downtrend is expected.
We make sure when the support at 36.30 breaks.
If the resistance at 43.75 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of downtrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis:
The RSI bounced from the downtrend #1 and it prevented price from more gains.
A peak is formed in daily chart at 41.94 on 10/19/2020, so more losses to support(s) 39.70, 38.15 and minimum to Major Support (36.30) is expected.
Price is below WEMA21, if price rises more, this line can act as dynamic resistance against more gains.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 47.
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WTI . Weekly Technical Analysis UpdateMidterm forecast:
While the price is below the resistance 43.75, beginning of downtrend is expected.
We make sure when the support at 36.30 breaks.
If the resistance at 43.75 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of downtrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis:
The RSI bounced from the downtrend #1 and it prevented price from more gains.
A peak is formed in daily chart at 41.94 on 10/19/2020, so more losses to support(s) 39.70, 38.15 and minimum to Major Support (36.30) is expected.
Price is below WEMA21, if price rises more, this line can act as dynamic resistance against more gains.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 47.
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WTI . Weekly Technical Analysis UpdateMidterm forecast:
While the price is below the resistance 43.75, beginning of downtrend is expected.
We make sure when the support at 36.30 breaks.
If the resistance at 43.75 is broken, the short-term forecast -beginning of downtrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis:
The RSI bounced from the downtrend #1 and it prevented price from more gains.
A peak is formed in daily chart at 41.94 on 10/19/2020, so more losses to support(s) 39.70, 38.15 and minimum to Major Support (36.30) is expected.
Price is below WEMA21, if price rises more, this line can act as dynamic resistance against more gains.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 47.
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OIL Trading PlanPattern: Channel Up on 4H (inner/ blue and outer/ black lines).
Signal: (A) Buy as long as the 4H MA200 is holding, (B) Sell if the 4H MA200 breaks.
Target: (A) 42.00 (just under the Higher High trend-lines of both Channels), (B) 37.50 (just above the Higher Low trend-line of the inner (blue) Channel Up).
Most recent Oil trade:
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Brent Crude Oil - Weekly technical analysis updateMidterm forecast:
While the price is below the resistance 46.50, resumption of downtrend is expected.
We make sure when the support at 38.90 breaks.
If the resistance at 46.50 is broken, the short-term forecast -resumption of downtrend- will be invalid.
Technical analysis:
A trough is formed in daily chart at 38.90 on 10/02/2020, so more gains to resistance(s) 44.15 and maximum to Major Resistance (46.50) is expected.
Price is above WEMA21, if price drops more, this line can act as dynamic support against more losses.
Relative strength index (RSI) is 53.
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Oil Next Move I believe the oil will drop down in the coming days and here is the path I think it will take.
Do your DD, apply your edge, act accordingly
Best luck
