Oilsignals
WTI OIL holding the multi-year Support Zone.As mentioned on our last analysis, it is critical for WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) to hold the 1M MA50 (red trend-line) and close the monthly candle (1M) above it. So far it has been holding, the current one is a 1W time-frame chart and as you see even on a weekly basis, all 4 last candles have held the 1M MA50.
At the same time though, the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) is applying selling pressure for the same time period as a Resistance. If this Zone holds, we still expect a strong rally to start and peak above the 1.5 Fibonacci extension. Our Target Zone is intact at 91.50 - 92.00.
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WTI OIL This is why it's going to $95.00 if the 1M MA50 helps.WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) has been practically neutral within a Triangle pattern since September 2023, trading under the Resistance pressure of the Lower Highs but at the same time supported by a Higher Lows trend-line. The latter has been placed just below the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line), which is the key to Oil's price action in the coming months.
As you can see, even when the price breaks below it, Oil manages to close the 1M candle (month) above the 1M MA50. In fact the last time it closed a month below it was more than 3.5 years ago (January 2021)!
As a result, if we manage to close August above it again, we expect a strong rebound for Oil. In fact, a similar Triangle pattern was spotted back in 2011 - 2013. As you can see, after several breakings but also closings above the 1M MA50, it eventually initiated a rally that hit the Resistance 2 level.
The 1M RSI sequences among the two fractals are similar as well, so we find no reason why Oil won't stage a similar rally as long as the 1M MA50 keeps holding. Our long-term Target is $95.00.
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WTI OIL Short-term pullback possible but doesnt change the trendLast week (August 06, see chart below), we made a strong bullish case on WTI Crude Oil (USOIL) and why on the 1M time-frame, the long-term target is $110.00, a symmetric approach on the 10-year Super Cycles:
Today we shift back to the shorter term 1D time-frame, as the price went from $73.00 to $80.00 within a week, and we are looking for potential pull-backs. Short-term corrections on medium-term Channel Ups have been common in the past 1.5 year and are displayed by the red ellipse patterns.
Yesterday's rejection took place on the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), which is something that also took place on January 29 2024. Assuming that a new Channel Up will emerge, we expect it to reach at least the 1.5 Fibonacci extension at $91.50, similar to the April 05 2024 High.
There are numerous Resistance levels involved this time however, with the strongest being the Lower Highs trend-line that started after the September 28 2023 High. As a result caution is advised once the price approaches that level.
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OILUSD/H4 WTI oil fluctuates in the stable range of $70 - $80.OILUSD forecast on August 13, 2024:
WTI oil is under pressure from the war and DXY is decreasing. Currently, the oil price has risen from the $71 region back to the $80 area. It is likely that oil will experience a correction before continuing its upward trend. The trading trend today is BUY.
Key levels to watch are: 76.5, 78, 80, and 82.
Recommended orders:
Plan 1: BUY OILUSD zone 76-76.5
SL 75.5
TP 78 - 80 - 81.
Plan 2: BUY OILUSD zone 77.60 - 78.10
SL 77.20
TP 79 - 80 - 81.
Plan 3: SELL OILUSD zone 83.30 - 83.50
SL 83.80
TP 82 - 81 - 78.
WTI OIL Strong cyclical support zone can push it to $110.WTI Oil (USOIL) is having a strong correction, along with the majority of the markets due to the fears of an economic slowdown. In times like these, it is always productive to zoom out and look at the long-term perspective, preferably a multi-year one.
On the current analysis we look at the 1M time-frame, which offers useful insight on Oil's Cycles. As you can see, the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line) and 1M MA100 (green trend-line) form a formidable Support Zone that hasn't seen a monthly candle closing below it since March 2021.
In cyclical terms it appears that the market is around a state similar to the consolidations of July 2009 - September 2010 and April 2002 - September 2003 (green arcs). They both offered a minimum rise of +65% to +70% following a Bullish Cross formation on the 1M MACD.
As a result, we are ignoring the short term weakness in the market and turn buyers long-term, targeting $110.00 (+65%).
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Turbo Tuesdays ? Crude OilNice ranged day on Monday leading me to think today won't be as expansive.
Nether less I am looking for Bearish movement but I would like some sort of BSL to be taken meaning I am anticipating a retracement come NY open 0830est roughly.
15min FVG and the 2hr -OB are areas if price was to retrace to I would look for shorts.
Targets are bellow the weekly ssl and the eql's.
WTI OIL on the 3.5 year Support!WTI Oil (USOIL) is attempting to form yet another bottom below the 1W MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the ultimate long-term Support since February 2021. As you can see, since May 2023, Oil has been forming Higher Lows just below this level.
Despite the presence of the Lower Highs trend-line since September 25 2023, the pattern shows a break-out above Resistance 1, every time such a low is formed. Our long-term Target remains 90.50 (potential Higher High on an emerging Channel Up).
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WTI OIL Correction is over. Buy strongly.WTI Oil (USOIL) followed our July 02 (see chart below) sell signal to perfection as it got rejected on the Lower Highs trend-line and Resistance 1 and broke today below the 0.618 Fib, hitting our 77.00 Target in the process:
For that projection we used the February 05 Low as a benchmark, which also hit the 0.618 Fib and rebounded on the 1W MA200 (red trend-line). That has been the multi-year Support level for WTI, so we currently won't get a better long-term buy signal than this.
As a result, we are now turning bullish again on Crude, targeting the -0.5 Fib extension (as on the April 05 High) at 90.50.
Note also that the 1D RSI is almost oversold at 30.00, a clear cyclical buy signal in the recent past (green circles).
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Crude Oil BIAS - Monday So Friday Crude showed its hand to us and what it was really wanting to do.
Sell side hit and with that a large Daily Displacement.
We could expect a smaller range day today and with that said I am looking for short term BSL to be taken before to carry on to the sell side of the chart.
I have two targets marked out clearly for this weeks initial draw on liquidity and the BIAS.
Thursday Crude Oil ForecastYesterday we saw a nice rally creating a Daily +OB which I have annotated.
If price is to respect the 4hr FVG we will see price go higher to the marked target.
I am bullish today however to expect some form of retracement after such a move is understandable for the market to make.
Bullish is the motive.
WTI OIL Still bearish but watch this level for a reversal.WTI Oil (USOIL) is posting today the 2nd straight green 1D candle following yesterday's EIA report but the short-term pattern remains a (dashed) Channel Down, which keeps the trend bearish. Ever since the July 05 rejection at the top (Lower Highs trend-line) of the 1-year Triangle pattern, we've been aiming for a 1W MA200 (red trend-line) contact, similar to the February 05 2024 Low.
As long as the 1D RSI remains below its MA trend-line, we will remain bearish, moving however our medium-term Target a bit higher to 78.50.
If however the RSI breaks above its MA, we will close the short immediately and buy instead on the bullish break-out, targeting 87.60 (Resistance 2).
Keep also an eye on the RSI's Symmetrical Support level (43.35) for a potential reversal.
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Unpacking the Looming Oil Price Surge: A Multifaceted AnalysisGlobal oil markets are brewing with the potential for a significant price surge. This intricate scenario is fueled by a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and market dynamics. This analysis dives deep into these factors, equipping you to navigate the complexities of the oil market and make informed decisions.
Geopolitical Tinderbox in the Middle East:
The Middle East, a lynchpin of global oil production, has a long history of political instability. Conflicts in this region, especially those involving major oil producers, can wreak havoc on supply chains. When oil production or transportation is disrupted, scarcity drives prices upwards. Recent tensions between Iran and Saudi Arabia, for example, have raised concerns about a potential shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for oil transport. Such an event could throw global oil supplies and prices into disarray.
The US Dollar: A Double-Edged Sword:
During periods of global turmoil, investors often flock to safe-haven assets like the US dollar (USD). Since oil is priced in USD, a stronger dollar might dampen the potential rise in oil prices. This is because a rising dollar makes oil more expensive for countries purchasing with other currencies, potentially leading to a decline in demand. However, the safe-haven demand for USD also introduces broader complexities to global financial markets. Increased investor risk reassessment can lead to market volatility, impacting oil prices as market sentiment reacts to geopolitical developments.
China's Economic Engine: A Potential Dampener:
China, the world's largest oil consumer, plays a critical role in global oil demand. Any slowdown in the Chinese economy can have significant repercussions. Recent indicators suggest a deceleration in China's economic growth, potentially leading to reduced oil consumption. This economic slowdown acts as a cautionary sign for bullish traders, as it could counteract the upward pressure on prices from supply disruptions and safe-haven demand for USD. China's economic challenges are multifaceted. The country is grappling with the aftermath of strict COVID-19 measures that disrupted both domestic consumption and international trade. Additionally, the real estate sector, a significant driver of Chinese economic growth, is facing a severe downturn, further dampening economic prospects. These factors collectively suggest that China's demand for oil may not grow as robustly as it has in the past, potentially providing a stabilizing effect on global oil prices despite other upward pressures.
Market Dynamics and Speculation: The Amplification Factor:
Beyond geopolitical and economic considerations, market dynamics and speculative trading play a crucial role in shaping oil prices. Hedge funds and institutional investors engage in speculative activities that can amplify price movements. In times of perceived scarcity or anticipated disruptions, speculative activities can drive prices higher as traders seek to capitalize on potential supply shortages. Furthermore, the oil futures market, where contracts for future delivery of oil are traded, can also influence current prices. If traders anticipate higher future prices due to geopolitical risks or economic factors, they may bid up prices in the present, leading to immediate price increases.
July 15 WTI crude oil trading strategy
July 15 WTI crude oil trading strategy
I give several safe trading areas:
Sell:
83.5-83.7 (I sold at this price last week and made a big profit. I will continue to try to sell here this week)
84.2-84.55 (suitable for selling, sl84.8)
Buy:
81.5-81.6 (scalping profit)
81.-81.2 (sl 80.68)
79.95-81.2 (can hold and get more than 80-160pips profit)
Trading according to these indicators can make you a safe profit.
If you use my signal to make a profit. Please join me and give me a thumbs up
WTI Crude oil trading strategy on July 12
WTI Crude oil trading strategy on July 12
I give several safe trading areas:
sell:
83.6-84 (scalping. Small profits are enough)
84.3-84.55 (suitable for selling, sl84.8)
buy:
81.6-81.8
80.9-81.2
Trading according to these indicators will allow you to make safe profits.
If you make a profit using my signals. Please join me and give me a thumbs up
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Overbought Market?!
Crude Oil leaves multiple bearish clues.
The price formed a double top and a rising wedge pattern on a daily
and broke a neckline and a trend line of both patterns.
On an hourly time frame, I see an inverted cup & handle with a confirmed
violation of its neckline.
Looks like the market is overbought.
We may expect a correction to 82.07
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