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Oil Traders Navigate Geopolitical Risk in Already Tight MarketThe recent escalation in the Iran-Israel conflict has cast a long shadow over the global oil market. Already grappling with tight supply and high prices, oil traders are now forced to factor in the potential for disruptions caused by the ongoing hostilities. This idea explores the current situation, potential outcomes, and analyst perspectives on the future of oil prices. A Market on Edge: Tight Supply and Geopolitical Risk The oil market entered 2024 facing a confluence of factors pushing prices upwards. Limited production increases from OPEC+, ongoing geopolitical tensions surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war, and a rebounding global economy demanding more energy all contributed to a tight supply situation. This dynamic sent oil prices surging above $90 a barrel earlier this year. The escalation in tensions between Iran and Israel adds a new layer of uncertainty to this already volatile market. Iran's direct attack on Israel marks a significant shift, raising concerns about potential disruptions to oil supplies from the Middle East, a region that accounts for roughly a fifth of global oil production. Focus on the Strait of Hormuz A key concern for oil traders is the potential for disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which a significant portion of the world's oil transits. Any actions that threaten the free flow of oil through this strategic waterway could send prices skyrocketing. Iran has previously threatened to close the Strait in response to heightened tensions, and recent events have heightened focus on this possibility. Futures Market Reacts, But Risks Remain Following the initial attack by Iran, oil futures prices did experience a spike as traders factored in the increased risk premium. However, prices have since eased somewhat, indicating a degree of cautious optimism that the situation might not escalate further. Despite this, analysts warn that the underlying risks remain. Analysts Weigh In: Possible Outcomes and Price Predictions Several potential scenarios could emerge from the current situation, each with its own impact on oil prices. • Tighter Sanctions: Banks like Goldman Sachs highlight the possibility of stricter sanctions being imposed on Iran, potentially leading to a loss of 500,000 to 1 million barrels of oil per day from the global market. • Israeli Military Response: Analysts at RBC Capital Markets warn that a significant Israeli retaliation could trigger a destabilizing cycle, further disrupting oil supplies and pushing prices even higher. • Limited Conflict: Other analysts, like ING, suggest that the market had already priced in the possibility of a limited attack, and the potential for a measured Israeli response could see prices stabilize or even decline slightly. • Citigroup, however, takes a more cautious approach, raising its short-term price forecasts due to the "extremely high" tensions. They estimate that a full-blown conflict between Iran and Israel could see oil prices surge as high as $100 per barrel. Looking Ahead: A Market in Flux The future trajectory of oil prices hinges largely on how the situation between Iran and Israel unfolds. While the easing of futures prices offers a glimmer of hope, the underlying risks remain. Oil traders must closely monitor developments in the region and adjust their strategies accordingly. Analysts remain divided, with some predicting further escalation and others hoping for a de-escalation. One thing is certain: the coming weeks will be crucial in determining the fate of oil prices in the near future.
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
XTIUSD(USOIL): 07/04/2024 We are pleased to inform you that our previous four setups on XTIUSD have been successfully respected. We maintain our belief that our initial target of $100 is highly achievable. The price has rebounded effectively from our initial concept. At this juncture, we anticipate a minor correction before the price reaches our designated area. Our immediate target is $92, which represents a substantial 1000 pips from our entry point. Our ultimate take profit objective remains at 1800 pips.
FXOPEN:XTIUSDLong
by Setupsfx_
6
Hedge Funds Go Long Oil as Middle East Tensions SimmerBuckle Up for Black Gold: Hedge Funds Go Long Oil as Middle East Tensions Simmer Oil Bulls Charge as Geopolitical Heat Rises The rumble of tanks in the Middle East is echoing through financial markets, with hedge funds piling into long positions on oil futures at a record pace. This aggressive bullish stance is a direct response to intensifying conflict in the region, a major source of the world's crude. The So Long, So Short of It The logic is simple: supply disruptions = higher prices. When tensions flare and the threat of production or export interruptions looms large, the perception of scarcity sends chills down the spines of oil-dependent economies. This fear translates into action, with buyers willing to pay a premium to secure reliable supplies, pushing prices upwards. Hedge Funds See Green in the Black Hedge funds, notorious for their high-risk, high-reward strategies, see this geopolitical instability as a golden opportunity. By taking long positions in oil futures contracts, they're essentially placing a hefty bet that oil prices will continue their upward trajectory. If their predictions hold true, they stand to reap significant profits. Hold Onto Your Stetsons: Prices Could Go Wild Should the situation in the Middle East escalate further, potentially leading to a disruption in oil production or exports, brace yourselves for a price surge. This scenario would be a boon for the long-oil hedge funds, but a major headache for consumers and businesses worldwide, as energy costs would skyrocket. A Word to the Wise: Don't Get Bucked Off The oil market is a complex beast, influenced by a multitude of factors beyond geopolitical tensions. A diplomatic breakthrough or the emergence of alternative sources of supply could cause prices to plummet. Before jumping on the long-oil bandwagon, investors should carefully consider their risk tolerance and conduct thorough research. TradingView: Your Oil Market Oasis Navigate the volatile currents of the oil market with confidence using TradingView's robust charting tools and in-depth market analysis. Track oil price movements, stay updated on geopolitical developments, and leverage expert insights to make informed trading decisions. Disclaimer This article is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Consult with a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
WTI OIL Consolidation before rise to $91.50.WTI Oil (USOIL) is trading within a Channel Up pattern since the January 28 High supported by the 4H MA50 (blue trend-line) - 4H MA200 (orange trend-line) Zone. The Bullish Legs have so far recorded rises within a +8.24% to +10.24% range. Right now it appears that Oil has finished the latest Bullish Leg as the 4H RSI made its standard Peak formation and declined. According to the previous RSI patterns, this decline is the most optimal buy entry. Now we should be expecting a consolidation around the 4H MA50 and not lower than the 4H MA200 before the next rally. Taking the lowest +8.24% rise scenario, we are targeting for a minimum Higher High at 91.50. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
2
Crude oil pays attention to short-term adjustments Crude oil currently continues to maintain a good oscillatory upward trend along the short-term moving average on the weekly trend. It also maintains a good oscillatory upward trend on the daily trend. Although it has gone out of a slight rise and fall, the strong technical form is still the same. Nothing has changed. There is a certain degree of divergence in the 4-hour trend. The K-line has begun to gradually break through the short-term moving average. There may be a certain degree of adjustment in the short-term trend.
TVC:USOILShort
by Donald-king
1
Crude oil is at a high level, don’t be aggressive in chasing bulAt present, crude oil is around 86, which has reached the expected high point. Although technically bullish, this level is no longer suitable for chasing the rise. According to technical expectations, it should be temporarily suspended between 86-85. If crude oil does not stop in the short term, then the short-term market will exceed expectations, so it is okay to miss it and not participate. And if crude oil has a correction in the short term, it will be an opportunity for long orders to enter the market. In the short term, 85.35 will continue to be bullish. If there is a sudden adjustment and correction, the double bottom support above 84.2 will be bullish, and the resistance target is 86.5-87. Trading strategy: You can go long with light positions near 85.5-3, stop loss at 84.8, if there is support at 84.5 above the 4-hour mid-rail, you can participate with long orders here.
TVC:USOIL
by Donald-king
WTI OIL Big rally ahead unless it breaks below the 1W MA100.WTI Oil (USOIL) hit our long-term 82.50 Target last week, a call made early this year (January 12, see chart below) when the price was still at $74.33: At the moment, the price sits above the 1W MA100 (green trend-line) for the first time since the week of October 23 2023, as the week opened above it. This calls for an upward extension similar to the September 04 2023 1W MA100 bullish break-out. As long as the 1W candles close above the 1W MA100, we will stay bullish, targeting the 18-month Resistance Zone (red) at 92.50. If Oil closes a 1W candle below the 1W MA100 though, we will take the loss and open a short instead, targeting the 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) and Higher Lows trend-line at 79.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILLong
by TradingShot
1
Crude oil hits new highs, if it falls back, you can go long At present, due to the intensification of international geopolitical conflicts, market supply concerns have once again heated up. At the same time, manufacturing data in the United States and China have rebounded, and demand-side expectations have increased. The dual benefits on both sides of supply and demand have stimulated the rebound of crude oil. Technically, the continuous positive closing continues to test the upper pressure level. . In terms of operation, we will focus on the pressure level near 85, and the gradually moving upward support near 82. We will support the bullish trend by stepping back, but do not consider aggressive pursuit of the increase. Crude oil is short around 84.4, stop loss is 85.2, target is below 82.6 Go long near 82.3, stop loss 81.5, target above 84 Ideas are for reference only. Profit and loss are at your own risk. Investment is risky. Please be cautious when entering the market.
TVC:USOIL
by Donald-king
Crude oil pressure is obvious, bulls are cautious U.S. crude oil inventories continue to rise, and short-term demand concerns have also increased. However, as expectations for U.S. interest rate cuts have increased, the loose atmosphere has given crude oil some support. At the same time, short-term supply-side pressure has increased as geopolitical conflicts intensify. Crude oil also stretched again after repeated repetitions. Technically, longs and shorts closed alternately. The top still focused on the pressure around 84, but did not chase the rise too much.
TVC:USOIL
by Donald-king
Oil hits YTD peak. What are the risks now? Oil prices reached their highest level in seven months, partly driven by worries that escalating tensions in the Middle East could constrain supply. Iran has warned of a potential "serious response" against Israel following a targeted strike in Damascus that resulted in the deaths of two Iranian generals. This incident has raised concerns about a widening conflict in the Middle East, following over five months of the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza. Furthermore, Ukraine has launched a counter-offensive by targeting Russia's oil infrastructure. Although the attacks have so far reportedly only caused minimal damage. Ukraine's objective is to disrupt Russia's main financial support for its invasion of Ukraine. Better-than-expected manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) reports from China and the US have also buoyed optimism in the oil market. Because of this, investors might anticipate increased demand in the manufacturing and industrial sectors of both countries. WTI has now found support just above $84.00. The 100 SMA is above the 200, potentially indicating that support is likely to hold. However, caution might be warranted as the market nears overbought conditions. If the $84.00 level fails to provide support, the subsequent target could be slightly below $81.00, coinciding with the 50% Fibonacci retracement level from the low in March to the recent peak. Alternatively, a less significant pullback might see buyers stepping in at the 23.6% or 38.2% Fibonacci levels.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
Expectations of Fed rate cut rise, gold retreats1: Investors are anxiously awaiting data to be released later this week to gain insight into potential inflation trends and provide a strong basis for judging the timing of interest rate cuts. At the same time, market expectations for an interest rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve are growing, coupled with the strength of U.S. gold . Market focus will be on Friday's release of the U.S. core personal consumption expenditures price index. The data will reveal the latest developments in inflation and have an important impact on the Fed's monetary policy decisions. 2: Market concerns mainly come from the uncertainty of global oil supply. Ongoing Ukrainian attacks on Russian refineries have heightened geopolitical tensions and put additional pressure on oil markets. In addition, Commerzbank commodity strategist Barbara Lambrecht pointed out that as the U.S. sanctions exemption on Venezuela is about to expire, Indian refiners have stopped buying crude oil from Venezuela, which further exacerbates supply instability. Overall, while the oil futures market showed some consolidation on Tuesday, market participants remain concerned about the global supply outlook and geopolitical tensions. These uncertainties may have further impact on oil prices, and investors need to pay close attention to market dynamics and formulate corresponding investment strategies.
TVC:GOLD
by Donald-king
WTI OIL Strong sell aheadWTI Oil (USOIL) eventually held the short-term uptrend within the Bullish Leg of the Channel Up and hit our 81.85 Target, as explained on our last idea (March 14 2024, see chart below): Moving out to the 1D time-frame, we can see that the price has started to pull-back after reaching the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of the long-term Channel Up pattern. In addition, it was rejected on the 1W MA100 (yellow trend-line). As the 1D MACD formed a Bearish Cross, selling may start to gain momentum and transition into the new Bearish Leg. The previous one hit the bottom (Higher Lows trend-line) of the Channel Up on the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level from the top. It also made the last contact with the 1W MA200 (red trend-line), which has been Oil's multi-year Support. As a result, we are now turning bearish on WTI, targeting the 0.618 Fib at 76.00. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingShot
Will U.S. oil rebound and repair next week?Crude oil is currently going through a wave of surges and falls on the weekly trend, but it still maintains its operation on the short-term moving average. Pay attention to whether there will be continued adjustment on the line next week. On the daily trend, the current price has begun to touch near the previous support band, and the downward trend has begun to slow down. After the continuous low fluctuations in the intraday 4-hour trend, the technical form showed signs of gradual recovery. The K-line began to slowly stand on the short-term moving average. It is believed that crude oil will rebound to a certain extent in the short-term trend. If you are not confident in your trading, you can follow me and I will share trading ideas every day
TVC:USOILLong
by Donald-king
Jump on the Oil Trend as Russia Refineries Attacks Drive Prices I wanted to bring to your attention the latest trend in the oil market - prices are on the rise due to recent attacks on refineries in Russia. These attacks have caused disruptions in the supply chain, leading to an increase in oil prices. This presents a great opportunity for you to capitalize on this trend and make some significant profits by going long on oil. Don't miss out on this golden opportunity to make some quick gains in the market. Take advantage of the current situation and place your bets on oil to see your investments grow. So, what are you waiting for? Get in on the action and go long on oil today
NYMEX:CL1!
by bryandowningqln
OIl Buy The Dips, Sell the RipsCrude OIl: Daily, Fibs & Indicators . . . Not as bullish as one would think. The move above the daily BB showed why you don't buy above the BBs . . . eventually, you get a correction. 3 days down for oil. The BB midpoint, yellow line, has been a support level for oil and will be interesting to see what happens down there. But, we are at a big resistance level based on the Oct - Dec 23 downdraft . . . so, we will be watching to see if we get support at 79.25 and then do we make a move back to highs at 83.22? That may be the trade in oil.
NYMEX:CL1!
by CeresTrader
1
Crude oil is focusing on support near 80, how to trade today? The short-term trend of crude oil (1H) fluctuated and hit new lows, testing the 80 support. The moving average system is arranged in a short position, and the short-term objective trend is downward. Oil prices hit around 80.70, forming a certain recurrence, and their upward strength is relatively weak. It is expected that crude oil will remain volatile in the short term during the day. Trading strategy: 81.60 short, stop loss: 81.90, target 80.60.Trading strategies are for reference only
TVC:USOILShort
by Donald-king
How will U.S. oil trade after the Federal Reserve decision?U.S. oil continued to fluctuate and repaired yesterday. The bullish EIA data in the evening failed to bring rebound momentum to U.S. oil. On the contrary, the market retreated to around the 80.8 line in response to technical needs before rebounding. Of course, this period was also affected by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision. , in the end, US oil still closed with a negative line. If U.S. oil falls back to the 81-80.7 area today and tomorrow, you can be aggressive and light up your position. If you have long positions at this level overnight, you can still keep it. However, you can reduce your position as appropriate when the pressure is measured near 82 at the top during the day.
TVC:USOILLong
by Donald-king