Short OilContinued idea from previous.
1 - The current trendline looks to be tested within the next few days, look for a bounce (long), or a break (add short).
2 - This red horizontal bar is around the $52 area (key transition area), it broke today, and closing below it over the next few days will be a good sign for shorts.
3 - Most big players got out December 30th, which points toward this level being a top for the time being.
4 - Today's drop was based on low volume, therefore we must be careful over the next few days. However, due to the large selling on December 20th, this may be all the volume necessary to truly break $52. Look for a weekly close below this level for a longer-term bear.
5 - RSI broke trend. This points towards an RSI heading towards oversold, with the price following.
Oilstocks
RDSB Targeting a move into the £25.00 rangeMy use of multidiagonals suggest that we could expect a move into the £25.00 range here at RDSB, nevertheless as we approach that upper diagonal, don't be surprised if we perhaps pull back down before resuming the move.
A daily close below the lower diagonal would concern me and I would probably exit.
CHEVRON @ Daily @ 1st Close above 2015 Yearly HighMaybe the most interesting technical picture of all DOWI shares !?
How ever,
this week was very exciting - very volatile and created an ambitionaly SetUp ...
113.29 CVX closed @ todays Thursday Trading Day
112.98 CVX was Yearly High 2015
107.68 CVY was Yearly High 2016 (before Trump Election)
Actuallity Trading Box (last 2 trading days) is the way to go
- even the SetUp TradingBox, if i am not wrong (between 114.91 & 111.27) ...
Above 114.91 i would prefere the long side into year end 2016
with a target of > 120.31 (zoom chart for a better technical understanding)
- & the Sentiment should also be not against (emotional resistances) energy stocks
Take care
& analyzed it again
- it`s always your choice ...
Best regards
Aaron
BCEI missing out on oil rally Bearish Setup 4hrOnly up 6.7%, CRC managed to climb 44.4%. Despite the low price, it looks like there are other options to take advantage of with the good news from OPEC
CRC: Buying opportunity after a pullbackIt's not hard not make money with CRC, even without a roundlot. In this case, price is ABOVE the .25 of the previous trend, suggesting an end to the downward wave. A pullback to the .618 would be preferable, particuarly given short interest, but with price above the 50/100/200 MAs I would buy around the 100 MA (11.92). If it sinks lower, just cover using fib numbers until the trend reverses.
Oil back again on a quarterly dynamic supportAfter touching the $ 51.91 price per barrel, oil has seen liquidations of profits, returning again in 46.50 area.
This price zone is very important, because it meets the dynamic support formed by the beginning of August.
It will be crucial to see how prices react to this key level, especially with the release of data on oil stocks on Wednesday and the announcement of the interest rate.
XOM : Open long before the Flag breakout !Exxon Mobil, major oil company, has just published its quarterly results. Its profits went down (2.7b$ vs 4.2b$ the previous year). Its cost reduction has not compensated the lower margins due falling oil prices.
Due to this, the stock has opened today with a bearish gap and has drawn a shadow at 85.50$ which is the lower bound of the flag.
Technically, we can now expect the stock to go up for the few next trading sessions because :
- mid term trend is upside , as shown by the ascending trendline support
- the flag is a continuation pattern ; the stock entered it from below, thus it is likely to exit by the top (theorical target indicated on the chart)
- the today's bounce took place at 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous upside wave (first blue arrow).
Here is the long strategy :
- open long at current price (86.09$ approx)
- stop @ 84.20$ (just below the 62.8% retracement, i.e. the last bottom)
- target @ 88.80$ as a security (expecting the theorical target of the flag to be reached seems to unlikely to happen)
Feel free to leave a comment about this idea !
Total (FPP) : Open short ! The major resistance blocks buyersThe french blue chip Total (FP, 111b € of Market Cap), from the oil industry, is inside a bearish dynamic since June 2014. This is characterized by lower tops and lower bottoms.
Currently, the buyers seemed to have taken back the advantage, but the Major resistance area at 45.00€ is still preventing the stock from going higher . As long as this level is not passed, the long term trend such as the mid term one will remain bearish. The 200 days Moving average shows that Total is still inside the downside direction ; it does not reverse durably.
For the blue trendlines : I always consider horizontal levels as the most important ones for trading ; the blue trendlines are just to show the pace of dynamics. A breakout of this type of line is not a sufficient indication to make a trade.
Because we are still in a bearish trend , with in addition to that the proximity with a major resistance area , it seems to be a great opportunity to open a short trade at the current price (44.15€ approx.) :
- stop @ 45.20€
- first target @ 43€ (to close 50% of the position) (Reward/Risk = 1.09)
- second target @ 41.60€ (to close the other 50% of the position). (Reward/Risk = 2.42)
Don't hesitate to share your view about this stock in comments !
Volume above average is the secret of this ideaPay attention to the volume average in the period M1 to H4. It indicates the amount of capital invested in selling transactions. The red line is the best position to get in.