Crude clawingCrude broke out from a 7 week consolidation. We like pullbacks to the trigger zone. NO TRIGGER, NO TRADE!
Oilstocks
LEARN OIL ' MOVES You got to love Mr. OIL - It's moves are not that enigmatic come to think of it - play safe haven if you will.
Up to 35.21 and then south
Comex Trading Tips and Market Analysis - OIL SHORT!! H&S?!Overview :
US oil surges 6.2%, closes at $31.48 a barrel after a group of oil-importing countries said energy stockpiles will grow at a slower pace on monday.
On Technical charts, Very Short term trend of crude is bullish, it has given upside breakout from downward sloping trend. Now market is making higher top and higher bottom formation on chart. Market is likely to be further bullish, it has retrace its recent significant upward movement and still sustaining above the downward sloping trend line. It has been taking support of 50 DMA & 200 DMA on one hourly chart. Resistance is seen at high of $34.80, while support is seen at $31.25. On intra day basis Crude oil price likely to trade with positive biased.
RSI entered in negative now and trading at 47.48.
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Strike and a missCrude got away from us on the break and didn't get the entry. It as a nice move! However, we are seeing a pullback. We will be looking for a trigger to get short. This will be with a VERY SMALL position. Any lows can be short lived and crude could be forming a bottom.
Comex Market Analysis and Trading Tips - US OilOverview :
Crude oil futures for delivery in March traded below $27 per barrel for the majority of the trading session, marking the second time this year that crude has traded around this level. Prior to 2016, the last time that crude oil futures traded below $27 per barrel was in September 2003.
On Technical charts, Major trend of crude oil is strongly bearish and market is making lower top and lower bottom formation in downward sloping channel on chart. Market is poised to be further bearish, it has gone below its recent significant low of $26.19. It has been taking resistance of 200 DMA on four hourly chart. Expanding of bearish gap of 200 DMA and 50 DMA dead cross on technical chart will fuel the down side momentum. Resistance is seen near the significant high of $29.55, while next support is seen at $26 a barrel 2003 low. On intra day basis Crude oil price likely to trade lower today. If it break the support of 26.00 then it is likely to show the level of 25.00.
RSI is still place in negative territory below the mark of 50. ADS is also sustaining above 40 mark with negative DI place above the positive DI, which is showing that momentum would be bearish.
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Comex Market Analysis and Trading Tips - 10th Feb 2016 Overview :
U.S. crude oil prices pushed higher in early Asian trading on Wednesday, partly recovering from a 6 percent drop in the previous session led by concerns over demand and weak equities. Before that Crude oil fell for a fourth-straight session on Tuesday to settle $1.75 lower.
On Technical charts, Major trend of crude oil is strongly bearish and market is making lower top and lower bottom formation in downward sloping channel on chart. Market look like, it is likely to go below its recent significant low of $27.52. During last week trading session it has been taking resistance of 200 DMA on four hourly chart. Expanding of bearish gap of 200 DMA and 50 DMA dead cross on technical chart will fuel the down side momentum. Resistance is seen near the significant high of $33.55, while support is seen at $27.50. On intra day basis Crude oil price likely to trade lower today. If it break the support of 27.50 then it is likely to show the level of 26.00.
Indicators
RSI is still place in negative territory below the mark of 50.
Comex Trading Tips and Market Analysis 9th Feb 2016
Overview :
Oil dropped below $30 a barrel in New York as equities tumbled and no agreement emerged from Venezuela’s tour of crude-producing nations. Speculators’ short positions on crude were near a record and Crude oil Futures fell 3.9 percent.
On Technical charts, Major trend of crude oil is still negative and market is making lower top and lower bottom formation on chart. Market look like it is likely to go below psychological level at $30.00 again. During last week trading session it took resistance of 200 DMA on four hourly chart. It has been trading below 200 DMA and 50 DMA appearance of dead cross on technical chart. Resistance is seen near the level of $33.55, while support is seen at $29.55. On intra day basis Crude oil price likely to trade lower today. If it break the support of 29.55 then it is likely to show the level of 28.00.
Indicators
RSI is still place in negative territory below the mark of 50.
Best of luck trading guys and let me know how you get on!
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The battle beginsCrude is consolidating nicely and setting up an opportunity. The questions remains...can she test the lows again. If the down side breaks be careful or a fake out. False breaks will be bought fast to trap the weak shorts. Use triggers and stops to protect.
Crude oil - the turning point - about 20USD (15-25)increase of stocks - new record, all time high 356 635 thousand barrels – September 26, 2014, 494 920 thousand barrels – January 26, 2016
oil production is still high despite of decreasing rig counts
decrease of managed money positions - 184 317 – October 13, 2015, 69 755 – January 12, 2016, 110 432 – January 26, 2016
Murrey math lines: monthly chart 1/8 – Fast reverse line – support: 25
4H chart, daily chart 3/8 – Lower trading range – resistance: 34,38, 1/8 – Fast reverse line – support: 28,13 , 0/8 – Hardest line to fall below – support: 25,01 , -1/8 Oversold line – support: 21,89 , 2/8 minimum of scale – support: 18,77
Moving average EMA200: 4H chart – 34,38 – resistance
Harmonics pattern: monthly chart – end of reversal zone 16,62
minimum from 1998 – spot price about 10 , real price (inflation adjusted) 14-15
source: www.finila.com
OIL IS A BEAROil has demonstrated bearish behavior. There is no immediate increase that bull traders are so deeply anticipating. Oil only shows weak performance with the MACD indicator pointing for a continued downturn or consolidation. Supply levels being extremely high are maintaining the oils range between 27-35 dollars. To short oil would be best options for short term outlays taking in consideration a defensive strategy.
Don't go blindCrude opened and blew through our trigger zone. Just as we suspected, crude may not be done on the down side...but it's getting close. Bottoms (and tops) take time to form so we will waiting until we see a signal forming. Protect your powder!!!!
Crude bounceCrude had a nice bonce last week but we must warn you...this doesn't mean the bottom is in. It takes time to form a bottom and it could take weeks to form. We could see Crude become volatile in the weeks ahead so be patient. There will be some REALLY GOOD trades coming in Crude. Keep on your watch list.
Oils ain't Oils no moreOil battles on while I learn EWT.
Just my idea on this stock.
Please like if you found it interesting.
Thank you
CRUDE OIL (WTI) - GLOBAL FORECAST!No comments... Just 1-st variant of possible price progression near future!
CRUDE OIL (WTI) - GLOBAL FORECAST!We do not even know, what to say. Everything is reflected in the charts in terms of the fundamental, historical and wave analysis. Maybe we are wrong, and the oil, will take the form of long-term correction, but the growth is unequivocal in the coming years. This is our opinion. Yours faithfully!
VA short play on weeklyvolatility in oil and the recent sell off in oil is causing airlines stocks to be volatile as well.
VA is an undervalued stocks by many metrics, however technical analysis showed the lack of demand from this stock.
Combining the rising wedge, bearish divergence, and market volatility, I am expecting a decline over the next few weeks.
However, if it breaks it's a different story. Does anybody want me to calculate a price target?
"Oil Bottom" sooner than you thinkOil currently is its last stages of the decline that started in the summer of 2013 and it will place a bottom within the next few weeks. It is declining now in Minute wave v "which will be a 3-wave decline" where Minute waves i, ii, iii, iv and v represent the ending diagonal wave 5 of wave (5).
We are expecting wave v to over-shoot to the downside of the ending diagonal and below the arrow represented on the chart which will lead to triggering stop losses "below wave 3" and to increase the bearish sentiment to a new extreme.
At that point of time Oil should rebound and advance to the upside in at least 3 waves A-B-C towards the 70s~80s area or start an impulsive 5 waves (1-2-3-4-5) to the upside that could take us to new highs in the next years/decade. We cannot tell now but once the prices start to advance we will have more information to call it right.
How can we make money from this analysis? Simple; we have three options:
1-By trading spot or futures (only if you are an active trader).
2-Invest some money in Oil companies now for few years.
3-Buy long term Oil future contracts (with 2017 or 2018 expiry dates).
Happy trading :)
Fishy Crude BusinessAfter a crazy week in the markets crude attempted a breakout. Now we are back at the scene of the crime. It's interesting that we see this pull back after Goldman Sachs releases their long term Crude forecast. Very fishy. Our eyes are on the 43 - 43.50 area. There are a lot of stops below this area and someone is fishing for them. If they get blown out we will be selling every pullback looking at a retest of the August lows. We are ignoring the upside until we get a close above 48.
The beast sleeps...for now!We are still watching crude for an entry long. We would like to see price re-visit the trigger zone and touch the lower flag. We are being CAUTIOUS with crude. This beast can blow through an area quickly so MAKE SURE IF YOU ARE TRADING CRUDE YOU ARE USING A TRIGGER! Define your risk and be good with it.
Would of, should of, could of...Would of, should of, could of...That was another nice move off the trigger area but as we mentioned before it wasn't deep enough into our zone. Now crude was rejected at the upper flag so we expect price to fall into the range and hopefully test the lower flag in our zone. Patience is needed! It's on our watch list.
Wide and VolatileCrude is experiencing some incredible moves which may be a sign a bottom is near. When bottoms form there is wider moves with volatility...we are watching the trigger zone for a possible long entry. We will keep a tight leash on the trade is it triggers. You never know with crude. NO TRIGGER...NO TRADE!
Crude is a gusherAfter a rocket off the bottom and a nice trade, Crude needs a rest. Is the bottom in? We don't so...soon though. We feel crude could make another attempt at a bottom to shake out the weak longs. However, if crude wants more upside from here we will need to see some consolidation. Above the $47 and we could see an accelerated squeeze. Crude is on our daily watch list.
