8/24/22 CVXChevron Corporation ( NYSE:CVX )
Sector: Energy Minerals (Integrated Oil )
Market Capitalization: 319.434B
Current Price: $163.19
Breakout price: $164.35
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $156.20-$146.90
Price Target: $180.00-$182.70
Estimated Duration to Target: 48-50d
Contract of Interest: $CVX 10/21/22 170c
Trade price as of publish date: $5.60/contract
Oilstocks
Oil Back to 100$ a barrelOil has had some strong buying volume around 85-86$ a barrel. Starting to break out of the downward slope to create a new higher low pattern.
If Iran doesn't except the deal the price of oil will pull back above 100$ a barrel
-Russia might also cut of demand for EU
-USA is going to stop adding supply in September because their reserves are running low
-Anything about 93.00 i would be going long TVC:USOIL
OXY - another interesting proposition TAKENOXY was recently highlighted during the recent crude oil ease off retracement. A friend kept talking about it, and new about Berkshire (Buffet) accumulating this stock kept making headlines over the past couple of weeks.
It was in the radar screen as this was something I missed earlier and looked for ward to getting some position as the crude prices should be expected to rocket higher. So, as Crude bounced off the support level (in the other post), the daily chart was tracked for a possible entry.
Compared to SOXL, this was not as pretty, but it would do for now.
Support held, bounced off, technicals on the daily were supportive of a bullish rally, Crude oil just bounced, and overall this was considered a low risk entry, so a position was taken (white arrow).
Currently is resistance zone.
Let's see if it has the resolve to break above... it should.
Inflation is over now time to deflate It all comes down to Newton’s third law “what goes up must come down”. With the pressure of the federal reserve and the U.S. government doing what they can to hedge inflation. Oil is well on its way to a downtrend the Sp oil and gas exploration index will follow suit. Rising wedge has broken likely next move is down.
6/12/22 XLESPDR Select Sector Fund - Energy Select Sector ( AMEX:XLE )
Sector: Miscellaneous (Investment Trusts/Mutual Funds)
Market Capitalization: $--
Current Price: $88.71
Breakout price: $90.50
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $84.30-$74.05
Price Target: $112.00-$114.20
Estimated Duration to Target: 133-140d
Contract of Interest: $XLE 9/16/22 90c
Trade price as of publish date: $5.90/contract
COP Oil names still leadersPost breakout shakeout makes this setup interesting. Oils stocks are leaders and we may be finding a bottom on the market for now. Even tho my personal opinion tells me this stocks already had their run, price and volume action tells me otherwise. I will be disciplined with my methodology and buy a small position as a toe in water.
$HUSAHouston American Energy Corp., an independent oil and gas company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of natural gas, crude oil, and condensate in the United States. Its oil and gas properties are located primarily in the Texas Permian Basin, the onshore Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coast region, and in the South American country of Colombia. As of December 31, 2021, the company owned interests in four gross wells. Houston American Energy Corp. was incorporated in 2001 and is based in Houston, Texas.
$IMPP entry PT .50-ish - .95 Target PT 16 and higherImperial Petroleum Inc. provides international seaborne transportation services to oil producers, refineries, and commodities traders. It carries refined petroleum products, such as gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and jet fuel, as well as edible oils and chemicals; and crude oils. As of March 29, 2022, the company owned four medium range refined petroleum product tankers and one Aframax crude oil tanker with a total capacity of 305,804 deadweight tons. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Athens, Greece.
4/17/22 HALHalliburton Company ( NYSE:HAL )
Sector: Industrial Services (Oilfield, Services/Equipment)
Market Capitalization: 36.626B
Current Price: $40.76
Breakout price: $39.55 (hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $38.80-$36.00
Price Target: $42.40-$43.60 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 31-35d (2nd)
Contract of Interest: $HAL 5/20/22 42c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.91/contract
$IMPP Next Target PTs 9-18 and higherImperial Petroleum Inc. provides international seaborne transportation services to oil producers, refineries, and commodities traders. It carries refined petroleum products, such as gasoline, diesel, fuel oil, and jet fuel, as well as edible oils and chemicals; and crude oils. As of March 29, 2022, the company owned four medium range refined petroleum product tankers and one Aframax crude oil tanker with a total capacity of 305,804 deadweight tons. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is based in Athens, Greece.
OIL SHORT BACK TO MAIN TREND IF CLOSE OUTSIDE 50 MOVING AVERAGEHi there,
As you see on the chart, OIL has closed below the 50MA on the daily time frame. We need to see a full candle close below 50MA for short. It is still above the 200MA so still a bullish trend up. But we may want to catch the fall back to the main trend. You can see our entry and profit target.
Profit target = next support point.
Entry Point = Ideally we should wait for a retest and reject from the 50MA to enter for the fall.
Indicator:
> MACD = showing sell but need more sellers
> RSI = below 50, need more strength to the down side
We don't want to see OIL close inside the symmetric triangle.
kind regards
LUKOY if i had to pick one russian stockIf i had to pick one russian stock after this huge sell-off, that would be LUKOIL (LUKOY).
PJSC LUKOIL engages in exploration, production, refining, marketing, and distribution of oil and gas.
Last year they had earnings of $773Bil and paid a dividend of $7.35, which is now higher than the price of one share.
It will be adjusted for sure.
The Market Cap is also low, $31.608Bil.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
EIA: Oil Prices Will Remain Above $100 For MonthsOil prices will remain higher than $100 per barrel in the coming months, reflecting the geopolitical risk from Russia’s war in Ukraine and the tight energy markets with the current and potential future sanctions against Russia, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Wednesday.
Brent Crude prices are expected to average $105.22 per barrel this year, the EIA said in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) last week, significantly raising its February forecast of $82.87.
In its March STEO last week, the EIA said it expects Brent Crude prices to average $117 a barrel in March, $116 for the second quarter of this year, and $102 per barrel in the second half of 2022.
WTI Crude, the U.S. benchmark, is set to average $113 a barrel this month and $112 per barrel for the second quarter of 2022.
Early on Wednesday, before the EIA inventory report, WTI was up 2% at over $98, and Brent was rising by 1.6% to $101.46.
EIA’s oil price forecast, however, “is subject to heightened levels of uncertainty due to various factors, including Russia’s further invasion of Ukraine, government-issued limitations on energy imports from Russia, Russian petroleum production, and global crude oil demand,” the administration said.
The current forecast Brent price also increased the forecast for the U.S. retail gasoline price, which the EIA expects to average $4.00/gal this month and continue rising to a forecast high of $4.12/gal in May before gradually falling through the rest of the year. The U.S. regular retail gasoline price is now seen to average $3.79/gal this year and $3.33/gal in 2023. If realized, the average 2022 retail gasoline price would be the highest average price since 2014, after adjusting for inflation, the EIA said.
As of March 16, the national average gasoline price was $4.305/gal, according to AAA data.
“This war is roiling an already tight global oil market and making it hard to determine if we are near a peak for pump prices, or if they keep grinding higher. It all depends on the direction of oil prices,” Andrew Gross, AAA spokesperson, said on Monda
y.
Saudi Arabia Considers Ditching The Dollar For Chinese Oil Sales
The status of the U.S. dollar as the reserve currency of the world is largely based on its importance in energy and commodity markets.
According to an exclusive report from the Wall Street Journal, Saudi Arabia and China are now discussing pricing some Saudi oil exports in Yuan.
China is aggressively pushing to dethrone the dollar as the global reserve currency, and this latest development suggests the petrodollar is now being threatened.
One of the core staples of the past 40 years, and an anchor propping up the dollar's reserve status, was a global financial system based on the petrodollar. This was a world in which oil producers would sell their product to the US (and the rest of the world) for dollars, which they would then recycle the proceeds of in dollar-denominated assets and, while investing in dollar-denominated markets, explicitly prop up the USD as the world reserve currency. All of this would support the standing of the US as the world's undisputed financial superpower.
Those days are coming to an end.
One day after we reported that the "UK is asking Saudis for more oil even as MBS invites Xi Jinping to Riyadh to strengthen ties", the WSJ is out with a blockbuster report, noting that "Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in yuan," a move that could cripple not only the petrodollar’s dominance of the global petroleum market - something which Zoltan Pozsar predicted in his last note - and mark another shift by the world’s top crude exporter toward Asia, but also a move aimed squarely at the heart of the US financial system which has taken advantage of the dollar's reserve status by printing as many dollars as needed to fund government spending for the past decade.
According to the report, the talks with China over yuan-priced oil contracts have been off and on for six years but have accelerated this year as the Saudis have grown increasingly unhappy with decades-old U.S. security commitments to defend the kingdom.
The Saudis are angry over the U.S.’s lack of support for their intervention in the Yemen civil war, and over the Biden administration’s attempt to strike a deal with Iran over its nuclear program. Saudi officials have said they were shocked by the precipitous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan last year.
China buys more than 25% of the oil that Saudi Arabia exports, and if priced in yuan, those sales would boost the standing of China’s currency, and set the Chinese currency on a path to becoming a global petroyuan reserve currency.
As even the WSJ admits, a shift to a (petro)yuan system, "would be a profound shift for Saudi Arabia to price even some of its roughly 6.2 million barrels of day of crude exports in anything other than dollars" as the majority of global oil sales—around 80%—are done in dollars, and the Saudis have traded oil exclusively in dollars since 1974, in a deal with the Nixon administration that included security guarantees for the kingdom. It appears that the Saudis no longer care much about US "security guarantees" and instead are switching their allegiance to China.
As a reminder, back in March 2018, China introduced yuan-priced oil contracts as part of its efforts to make its currency tradable across the world, but they haven’t made a dent in the dollar’s dominance of the oil market, largely because the USD remained the currency of choice for oil exporters. But, as Pozsar also noted recently, for China the use of dollars has become a hazard highlighted by U.S. sanctions on Iran over its nuclear program and on Russia in response to its invasion of Ukraine.
Crucial Moment For Oil I never post here but I really wanted to give this notice to as many ppl as possible. Forget the conflict no one knows how that will end. OPEC is still very tight with supply staying on pace with supply increases in the face of $130-$90 barrel oil. We aren't seeing much action in terms of increases in supply in the US either. Iran oil also seems to be off the table. All of this tells me we should hold this trend line and close around $99 today, but the chart is saying otherwise atm. If we close above $99 I believe we see a significant move higher to at least past resistance around $120. If we close below $99 today we could see a drop down to $80. Oil has traded in this channel for almost 2 years before the russian-ukraine war, making a move below or a confirmation of support very significant.
3/13/22 CNQCanadian Natural Resources Limited ( NYSE:CNQ )
Sector: Energy Minerals (Oil & Gas Production)
Market Capitalization: $70.677B
Current Price: $60.89
Breakout price: $54.00 (hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $57.25-$51.35
Price Target: $77.00-$79.80
Estimated Duration to Target: 788-805d
Contract of Interest: $CNQ 1/20/23 60c
Trade price as of publish date: $9.10/contract
3/13/22 XOMExxon Mobil Corporation ( NYSE:XOM )
Sector: Energy Minerals (Integrated Oil)
Market Capitalization: $359.517B
Current Price: $84.92
Breakout price: $83.00 (hold above)
Buy Zone (Top/Bottom Range): $82.90-$77.15
Price Target: $85.00-$86.20 (Reached), $98.00-$100.00 (2nd)
Estimated Duration to Target: 50-52d
Contract of Interest: $XOM 6/17/22 105c
Trade price as of publish date: $1.25/contract