OilUS Oil - Crude Oil
Symmetrical Triangle in Long Time Frame
Break of Structure
Demand Zone
Falling Wedge as an Corrective Pattern in Short Time Frame
Change of Characteristics
Oiltrading
OIL IDEA: SHORT/SELL (W/B: 23/12/24)Guys! It’s almost the end of the year!
This one is quite self explanatory… order flow is bearish - we’ve had a break of structure to the down, so price is looking to tap back in to finish the sell. The trade I’m showing is RR: 2.80, with the final TP of RR: 4.14. Enjoy and good luck!
Last couple posts will be my last until probably mid January
$USO crash before the bull market starts?I originally thought that we'd see a move higher off the bounce from $69, however the chart has now morphed and looks more bearish than it did over the summer.
If we break the trend line to the downside, then I think it's likely that we can see a crash to the $40 region before the bull market in oil really starts.
Let's see how it plays out over the coming months.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Bullish fractal from 2023 targets $78.50.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.153, MACD = 0.060, ADX = 20.101) as it is trading around its 1D MA50 but at the same time remains supported on the S1 Zone. In the meantime the 1D RSI is rising on HL, which is a bullish divergence. This set of dynamics are identical to March-June 2023, when WTI was contained over the S1 Zone but the RSI was pointing to a bullish divergence that eventually caused a bullish breakout. Consequently, we are bullish now, aiming again at the R1 level (TP = 78.50).
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TQRGET REACHED ON CRUDE OILEarlier I posted to buy on CL1! | USOUSD | CRUDE, after that I posted to sell and reverse the position, now the market reached our target which was the LQ Level, 2 good trades today!
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SELL CRUDE OILI'm sharing with you another trade today and this time on CL | USOIL | USOUSD, you xan sell targetting the same level as mine with the same SL.
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Multiday OHLC IndicatorMulti-Day OHLC Indicator (Private Access)
This is a custom Multi-Day OHLC (Open, High, Low, Close) indicator designed to identify key price levels based on the daily price action. By calculating and plotting these critical price points, it helps you spot important support and resistance zones, as seen in the chart above.
The indicator helps traders to:
• Identify significant price levels based on recent multi-day price action.
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This indicator is private and free of cost. If you’d like access to it, feel free to request access, and I’ll grant you the privilege to use this powerful tool for your trading.
Multiday OHLC IndicatorMulti-Day OHLC Indicator (Private Access)
This is a custom Multi-Day OHLC (Open, High, Low, Close) indicator designed to identify key price levels based on the daily price action. By calculating and plotting these critical price points, it helps you spot important support and resistance zones, as seen in the chart above.
The indicator helps traders to:
• Identify significant price levels based on recent multi-day price action.
• Spot potential reversal points and trade setups when price approaches key zones.
• Make informed decisions by visualizing multi-day price data on a single timeframe.
This indicator is private and free of cost. If you’d like access to it, feel free to request access, and I’ll grant you the privilege to use this powerful tool for your trading.
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Entry 📈 : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Low Point take entry should be in pullback.
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US OIL Trade Log USOIL Short Position Analysis
Technical Indicators :
- 1H Fair Value Gap (FVG): Current price is within the 1-hour FVG, indicating a potential short entry point.
- MACD Divergence: A bearish divergence between the MACD indicator and price action suggests weakening upward momentum.
- Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) Divergence: Bearish CVD divergence indicates increasing selling pressure despite rising prices.
- Ichimoku Kijun Levels: Price is above the 1H, 4H, and daily Kijun lines, placing it in a relative premium zone, which may precede a downward correction.
Fundamental Factors :
- Fear Premium: Recent price increases are attributed to geopolitical tensions, such as conflicts in the Middle East, leading to a 'fear premium' in oil prices.
- Bearish Macro Outlook: Rising U.S. oil inventories and weak global demand projections, especially from China, suggest a bearish outlook for oil prices.
Trade Parameters :
- Position: Short USOIL
- Entry: Within the 1H FVG at current market price.
- Risk Management:
- Risk per Trade: 1% of trading capital
- Risk-Reward Ratio (RRR): 1:2
WTI CRUDE OIL: targeting 95.00 with support by the 1M MA100.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.599, MACD = -0.340, ADX = 19.425) as the price hasn't practically moved for 3 straight weeks. Even the 1W RSI remains neutral (RSI = 46.004) as the last 4 candles have closed inside the 1M MA50 - 1M MA100 range. The 1M MA100 is basically supporting the pattern since April 2021. As long as it does, chances are will see a strong rebound to the R1 level, a price action much like what followed the 2013 consolidation that pivoted to Leg (4).
A similar S1 Zone was supporting on the 1M MA100. Consequently, we turn bullish on WTI expecting a R1 test in the coming months (TP = 95.00).
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USOIL:The long target is 72.8
Today's crude oil continues to be bullish, the daily line gave a broken signal, back to step to continue to do long, crude oil this wave is also hovering at the bottom of the cycle, long target first look around 72.80, today back to step 79.40-79.50 support above to find more opportunities.
MRO - About to run a marathon! 45% UpsideNYSE:MRO - About to run a marathon! 45% Upside
Marathon Oil Corporation is attempting to break out of a multi-year BULLISH PENNANT pattern and a Bull Flag within it at the same time. We also have turned green on the H5 Indicator.
Entry: $29.70
SL: $27.35
Profit Targets:
$32
$37
$42.50
NFA
Oil Market Outlook: Bearish Options FlowA few words about the prospects of oil through the lens of options trading.
The sentiment is leaning more bearish than bullish. We're seeing a surge in vertical spreads and butterflies on puts, targeting the $65-60 range for February-March 2025.
If we look at the charts, the price action resembles a 'settling' at the support level of $65-66.
It’s looking like we might see a support break, potentially a swift one, which could send prices down to a lower range, just like we've seen in the past.
But for now, this is just a theory based on price action and the options flow.
USOIL:Long after the pullback trading strategy
Crude oil yesterday is also strong pull up, the overall bullish thinking and expectations are consistent, coupled with the contract delivery today, crude oil will be likely to break through the previous strong pressure 69.40 this position, crude oil thinking is also low bullish;
Asia-europe session is expected to shock before pulling higher, pay attention to 68.5-68.3 support, in addition to the previous crude oil inventory data is also positive, crude oil may enter a wave of bulls. Upper targets see 69.4-70.6
USOIL:Today's short trading strategy
Crude oil began to contract delivery, the action of these two days should be relatively large, today's thinking or bearish, weekly line again closed negative, and the center of gravity began to move down, crude oil also fell below the bottom of the hour level, today's rebound continues to empty, do not chase, this position is the bottom of crude oil week, has been volatile for a few weeks;
Today the bearish pressure around 68.00 has been broken and is currently around 67.00, the lower target is seen around 66.00. Please do not continue to short after arrival, wait for the market to confirm before trading. Follow me for updates
Oil Swing Back to $77My next trade on oil is looking to be around 15% Mid term and about 7% for the short term as we see price idling at support levels to swing back to $72
Potential bearish drop?USO/USD has reacted off the resistance level which is an overlap resistance that lines up with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 69.05
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement.
Stop loss: 70.48
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level that is slightly below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement.
Take profit: 66.91
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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WTI CRUDE OIL: confirmed bottom formation. Buy and target 77.50.WTI Crude Oil is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 42.429, MACD = -0.380, ADX = 24.190) but that bearish sentiment is the ideal buy entry as the price hit today the top of the S1 Zone and stayed supported, extending the sideways price action of the last 2 days. The 4H RSI is on HL, which has been the distinct characteristic of all prior 3 bottoms. Being on the 0.236 Fibonacci level, we expect a strong rebound to start even as soon as tomorrow, to test the bottom of the R1 Zone (TP = 77.50).
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Outstanding Performance of the Sentiment Cycle IndicatorThe Sentiment Cycle Indicator has once again showcased its power in predicting market moves accurately, as highlighted in this Bitcoin analysis on the 15-minute timeframe. The indicator’s ability to adapt and detect different market conditions, including sideways consolidation, strong uptrends, and timely reversal signals, makes it a valuable tool for any trader.
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SELL ON USOIL As usual here is our trade for today on CRUDEOIL/CL/USOIL, you can enter by setting the same SL and TP as mine!
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SELL USOILYou can sell CRUDEOIL / USOIL / CL at the same levels I placed on the chart.
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WTI Crude Oil Outlook: Eyeing Potential Demand Zone RecoveryWTI crude oil is currently trading around $68.25 as of this Tuesday, following a significant gap-down opening to start the week. The move lower was largely influenced by easing tensions in the Middle East, as recent developments suggested a more contained military approach, which alleviated fears of a broader conflict that could disrupt oil supply.
Upcoming U.S. Economic Data: GDP and Nonfarm Payrolls in Focus
The U.S. economic calendar this week includes key data releases, beginning with the flash Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report for Q3 on Wednesday, projected to show an annualized growth rate of around 3%. A stronger-than-expected GDP figure could bolster the USD, adding pressure to USD-denominated assets like crude oil, as a stronger dollar makes oil more expensive for holders of other currencies. Following the GDP report, Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls will provide additional insight into U.S. labor market conditions, which could further influence dollar strength and, subsequently, WTI prices.
Technical Analysis: WTI Trading in Demand Zone
From a technical perspective, WTI crude is currently positioned within a demand zone, where buyers could be eyeing a recovery of Monday's gap-down. This demand zone represents a critical area where traders are observing whether buying interest will drive prices higher to close the gap. A recovery attempt here, with a tight stop loss, could offer a favorable risk-to-reward setup, particularly if data later in the week doesn’t significantly strengthen the USD.
Conclusion
The WTI crude oil market remains vulnerable to geopolitical developments and U.S. economic data this week, with a stronger USD potentially capping any recovery attempts. However, should the upcoming data align with current estimates or underperform, there may be room for WTI to rally from its demand zone, attempting to reclaim some of the lost ground from the recent gap-down. Traders may want to monitor these key levels and events closely, as they could provide both direction and confirmation for near-term price movement in WTI crude oil.
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