Oiltrading
WTI CRUDE OIL: Buy opportunity on the bottom trendline.WTI Crude Oil remains bullish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 58.480, MACD = 1.830, ADX = 66.542) despite the 4 day selling streak, which pushed the price under the 4H MA50. The HL trendline is still intact though, so technically that is a sound buy opportunity, especially if the 1D RSI hits the 30.000 oversold level. We're bullish (TP = 86.00).
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CrudeOil Slips Amid Anticipation of Trump's Energy Policy ChangeCrude Prices Decline on Expectations of Trump's Energy Policy Shift
Crude oil prices fell early Monday, driven by expectations that U.S. President-elect Donald Trump may ease restrictions on Russia's energy sector as part of a potential deal to resolve the Ukraine conflict.
Brent crude dipped 0.3% to $80.54 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude slipped 0.5% to $77.53 per barrel as of the latest data.
Trump, set to be inaugurated on Monday, is anticipated to announce policy changes, including lifting the moratorium on U.S. liquefied natural gas export licenses, according to a report by Reuters.
USOIL Technical Analysis
Crude oil remains under bearish momentum while trading below $77.94. A decline to $75.35 is expected, with further downside toward $72.75 if $75.35 is breached.
Key Levels
Pivot Line: $77.45
Resistance Levels: $79.00, $81.00
Support Levels: $75.35, $74.15, $72.75
Trend Outlook
Bearish: While below $77.94
Bullish: Above $77.94
USOIL Trade LogUSOIL Short Trade Setup 🚨
- Instrument: West Texas Oil (USOIL)
- Timeframe: 1-Hour
- Risk: Between 1% and 2%
- Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:2 minimum
Key Technical Analysis:
1. Price has formed a clear reversal structure accompanied by a rejection off the monthly Kijun level .
2. A 1-hour Fair Value Gap (FVG) provides a potential entry point with a confluence of the Kijun 1H level.
3. The setup is in alignment with a broader bearish sentiment due to macroeconomic influences.
Fundamental Confluence:
- Recent announcements signal a ceasefire in the Middle East , reducing geopolitical oil supply risks.
- Trump's statement regarding plans to increase oil drilling has heightened expectations of increased supply, potentially pressuring prices downward.
Trade Plan:
- Entry: Within the 1H FVG zone upon bearish confirmation.
- Stop Loss: Above the 1H FVG's upper boundary.
- Take Profit: At least twice the stop-loss distance for a 1:2 RRR.
Risk Management:
Ensure strict adherence to the 1%-2% risk allocation. Always consider market volatility before executing trades.
This setup offers a balanced technical and fundamental perspective. Keep in mind, the market can always surprise you. Stay disciplined!
CL Bearish Outlook Look like after price took out BSL at the PDH from 80.16 it has moved lower and has been targeting PDLs. There is a nice discount D BISI that I believe price will trade into and if price is truly Bearish then it will trade right through the D BISI CE level and find minimal support and then the next area of focus could be the double bottom at 72.70
Lets continue to watch price and see how it delivers.
OUR TRADE TODAY ON OILToday, we took 3 trades, A profitable and 2 in loss.
I will share the 3 of them so I share with you the other side of trading with only few people show which is losses.
Our trade on OIL went as expected, but the other one on NASDAQ and GOLD didn't go as planned which left me and my clients with couple $ up. And that's normal since we're still in profit on the weekly and monthly basis.
Follow for more!
GOLD XAUUSD BULISH CHANNELXAUUSD is currently trading within a well-defined bullish channel pattern, characterized by higher highs and higher lows, indicating a strong upward momentum in the market. The lower trendline of the channel acts as a support level, providing a cushion for price pullbacks, while the upper trendline serves as a resistance zone, marking potential targets for buyers. As long as the price remains within this channel, the overall sentiment remains bullish, suggesting continued growth. A breakout above the resistance level could signal accelerated bullish momentum, while a break below support may indicate a potential reversal or consolidation phase.
OUR TRADE TODAY ON USOILMy clients and I today too 2 trades, one on Oil and the other one on Nasdaq, we entered after that the market gave us a reversal point to target the liquidity level, which the market filled later in the day.
I didn't post it since we had to focus on recovering the losses silently, since we did, I'll be reposting again.
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WTI CRUDE OIL: Buy opportunity on the 1D MA50.WTI Crude Oil is neutralizing the previously overbought 1D technical outlook (RSI = 69.520, MACD = 2.080, ADX = 64.888) as after crossing over the R1 level, it is pulling back under it. Technically this has been mirroring the March-August 2023 fractal and based on that, we should see this pull back almost reach the 1D MA50. A buy opportunity is waiting there and our target is the 1.618 Fibonacci level (TP = 86.00).
See how our prior idea has worked out:
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Oil Short 4HI’m excited to share my next setup for Oil. This trading idea is based on correction levels.
The main idea area is between 80.35 and 80.25. However, since oil tends to react to the 50 levels, I prefer to focus on the 80.5 level for my entry.
For the 4-hour entry, I am waiting for the formation of an M pattern with a lower peak at the second base. I’ll be looking to take scalp sell at the levels of 80.25, 80.35, and 80.5 for the first touches. after that, I'm going to wait for the confirmation to take the main Sell.
Please note that, typically, upon the first collision, we could experience either an impulse or a rejection entry. At the second base, we should wait for a consolidation area to confirm our entry. For a better understanding of this setup, please refer to my previous oil chart.
TP1: 79.9
TP2: 79.2
TP3: 77.4
SL: 81.35
Please remember that trading carries risks, and it's crucial to do your own research. The ideas shared here reflect my personal analysis and may not guarantee success. Always trade responsibly and consider seeking professional advice if needed.
Happy trading!
USOIL H1 TECHANICAL ANALYSIS (READ CAPTION) The Winning Hubhello trader's. what do you think about gold.
current price: 77.00
So Some Support and Resistance i Find in The Daily Chart
Let's Find out on H1 Time Frame
we have First Support is the today Low it's 76.00 then 75.00 and The first Resistance is 78.50 and then demand zone 75.00
resistance zone: 77.80 / 78.50
support zone: .76.00 / 75.00
please like comment and follow
OIL & The Buffet TradeMARKETSCOM:OIL & The Buffet Trade
From a Technical View I see the Inverse Head & Shoulder playing out.
Current economic catalyst may be the reason why this very common technical pattern plays out, I'll be trading it on the way up.
The GOAT Buffet is all in NYSE:OXY which says a lot.
Navigating the Oil Market volatile prices Crude oil prices have been on a roller coaster ride in recent times, influenced by a multitude of factors, including geopolitical tensions, economic indicators, and OPEC+ production decisions. Let's break down the key elements affecting the current oil market:
The Russia-Ukraine War and Sanctions
The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been a significant driver of oil price volatility. Russia is a major oil exporter, and the Western sanctions imposed on the country have disrupted global supply chains. This has led to supply concerns and consequently, higher oil prices.
OPEC+ Production Cuts
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries
(OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) have been actively managing oil production levels to stabilize
the market. Their decision to cut production has had a direct impact on increasing oil prices.
This move aims to balance supply and demand, ensuring oil prices remain at profitable levels for member countries.
US Oil Production and Inventory Levels
The United States is a major oil producer, and its production levels and inventory change
s influence global oil prices. While US production has increased, it hasn't been enough
to offset the supply disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and OPEC+ production cuts.
Lower US oil inventories have also contributed to the upward pressure on prices.
Oil Algorithmic Traders Loosen Grip on Market After Back to Back Annual Losses Gusgraph.com
Global Economic Recovery and Demand
The global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has led to increased demand for oil. As economies reopen and travel picks up, the demand for fuel has surged, putting upward pressure on oil prices.
Other Factors
In addition to the above factors, other elements such as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, currency fluctuations, and speculative trading can also impact oil prices.
In conclusion, the current oil price surge is a result of a complex interplay between geopolitical events, supply and demand dynamics, and economic indicators. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, OPEC+ production cuts, and robust global economic recovery are the primary drivers pushing oil prices higher.
Navigating the Oil Market: A Day Trader's Guide
The oil market is a dynamic and complex arena, presenting both significant opportunities and formidable challenges for day traders. Understanding the key drivers of oil price fluctuations is crucial for developing effective trading strategies.
Key Factors Influencing Oil Prices:
Geopolitical Events:
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions on Russia have significantly disrupted global oil supply chains.
Geopolitical instability in the Middle East, a major oil-producing region, can also trigger price volatility.
OPEC+ Production Decisions:
The decisions of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) regarding production cuts or increases have a direct and significant impact on oil prices.
Global Economic Growth:
Strong economic growth translates to increased demand for energy, driving up oil prices. Conversely, economic slowdowns can lead to lower demand and lower prices.
US Oil Production and Inventories:
Changes in US oil production and inventory levels play a crucial role in influencing global oil prices.
Currency Fluctuations:
The value of the US dollar against other major currencies can impact oil prices, as oil is typically priced in US dollars.
Day Trading Opportunities in the Oil Market:
The volatile nature of the oil market presents several trading opportunities for skilled day traders:
Identifying Trends:
Identifying and trading with the prevailing trend (uptrend, downtrend, or sideways) is crucial. Technical analysis tools like moving averages and trend lines can be valuable in this regard.
Capitalizing on News Events:
Anticipating and reacting to news events, such as OPEC+ meetings, geopolitical developments, and economic data releases, can provide significant trading opportunities.
Volatility Trading:
High volatility periods can create short-term trading opportunities, but require careful risk management and a robust trading plan.
Scalping:
Scalping involves taking small profits on small price movements. This strategy requires quick decision-making and a deep understanding of market dynamics.
Key Considerations for Day Trading Oil:
High Volatility: The oil market is known for its volatility, which can present both significant opportunities and risks.
Risk Management: Implementing strict stop-loss orders and position sizing strategies is crucial to manage risk effectively.
Fundamental Analysis: Stay informed about geopolitical events, economic data, and industry news to make informed trading decisions.
Technical Analysis: Utilize technical indicators such as moving averages, RSI, and MACD to identify entry and exit points.
Emotional Control: The volatile nature of the oil market can trigger emotional responses. It's crucial to maintain discipline and avoid impulsive trading decisions.
US Sanctions Send Oil Prices to 4-Month High
Oil prices have surged to a four-month high following the announcement of new U.S. sanctions targeting oil exports. This sudden price spike reflects the market's sensitivity to geopolitical events and the potential global oil supply disruption. The sanctions, aimed at Russia and potentially India, have immediately triggered concerns about reduced supply, pushing prices upward. This article delves into the details of these sanctions, their potential impact on the oil market, and the broader economic implications.
The Sanctions and Their Target
The U.S. government has imposed new sanctions on Indian shipping companies. These sanctions specifically target the country's or entities' ability to export oil, a crucial source of revenue. The rationale behind these sanctions, as stated by the U.S. government, is to punish countries that trade for Russia’s oil during a war with Ukraine. The U.S. aims to exert economic pressure on the targeted entity by restricting oil exports, forcing them to change their policies or behavior.
Immediate Market Reaction
The oil market reacted swiftly to the news of the sanctions. Both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the global benchmarks for oil prices, experienced significant jumps, reaching levels not seen in four months. This immediate price surge underscores the market's anticipation of reduced supply. Traders are factoring in the potential loss of barrels from the market, leading to increased buying activity and pushing prices higher.
Potential Impact on Global Oil Supply
The extent of the impact on global oil supply depends on several factors, including the volume of oil previously exported by the sanctioned entity and the ability of other oil-producing nations to compensate for the lost supply. If the sanctioned entity was a significant exporter, the impact on global supply could be substantial, leading to further price increases. Conversely, if other producers can ramp up production to offset the shortfall, the price impact might be mitigated.
Impact on Consumers
Rising oil prices inevitably translate to higher prices at the pump for consumers. This increase in gasoline prices can have a ripple effect throughout the economy, impacting transportation costs, the price of goods and services, and overall inflation. Consumers may face higher costs for commuting, travel, and everyday purchases.
Impact on Businesses
Businesses, particularly those in transportation, logistics, and manufacturing, are also significantly affected by rising oil prices. Higher fuel costs increase operating expenses, potentially squeezing profit margins. Businesses may be forced to pass these increased costs on to consumers, further contributing to inflationary pressures.
Geopolitical Implications
These sanctions and their impact on oil prices also have broader geopolitical implications. They can strain relationships between the U.S. and other countries, particularly those that rely on oil imports from the sanctioned entity. The sanctions can also create opportunities for other oil-producing nations to increase their market share.
Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR)
In response to potential supply disruptions, governments may consider releasing oil from their strategic petroleum reserves (SPR). The SPR is an emergency stockpile of crude oil maintained by several countries, including the U.S. Releasing oil from the SPR can temporarily increase supply and help stabilize prices. However, the effectiveness of this measure depends on the size of the release and the duration of the supply disruption.
Long-Term Outlook
The long-term impact of these sanctions on oil prices is uncertain. It depends on various factors, including the duration of the sanctions, the response of other oil-producing nations, and the overall state of the global economy. If the sanctions remain in place for an extended period and other producers cannot fully compensate for the lost supply, oil prices could remain elevated.
Conclusion
The recent surge in oil prices following the announcement of new U.S. sanctions highlights the interconnectedness of geopolitics and energy markets. The sanctions, aimed at exerting pressure on India and Russia, have triggered concerns about reduced oil supply and have led to a significant price increase. The impact of these sanctions will be felt by consumers, businesses, and the global economy as a whole. The situation underscores the importance of monitoring geopolitical events and their potential impact on energy markets. While the long-term outlook remains uncertain, the immediate impact is clear: higher oil prices and increased volatility in the energy sector.
CL Week Review 01/06/25 - 01/10/25Looks like my Directional Bias for CL was off. Instead of price coming lower to fill in the BISI and take the PDLs it rallied higher through the Volume Imbalance and raided all the BSL. Now that wick higher on Friday did not stop at a random spot. Look closely and you will notice its the Premium Daily 50% CE level of the wick and price reversed nicely off from there.
Now the question remains does price justify to continue higher and take the BSL at 78.46 or does price reverse from there and then target the SSL and the D BISI?
Currently its still looking Bullish since price closed above the Volume Imbalance and the PDH from Thu Oct 10 2024 at 76.24 but lets see how price opens on Sunday and we can definitely expect a volatile week since there is a good amount of economic news drivers.
Oil Algo Trading Strategy Lost Its Edge?Oil Algorithmic Traders Loosen Grip on Market After Back-to-Back Annual Losses
A Shift in the Oil Trading Landscape
In the intricate world of oil trading, where fortunes are made and lost on the fluctuations of prices, a significant shift is underway. Algorithmic traders, the computer-driven entities that have come to dominate the market, are pulling back after enduring two consecutive years of losses.1 This retreat marks a notable change in the oil market dynamics, potentially paving the way for a more balanced and predictable trading environment.
The Rise of Algorithmic Trading
Over the past decade, algorithmic trading, also known as automated or high-frequency trading, has revolutionized financial markets, and the oil market is no exception.2 These sophisticated systems employ complex algorithms and statistical models to identify and exploit trading opportunities at speeds that are impossible for human traders to match.3
Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), a prominent class of algorithmic traders, specialize in trend-following strategies.4 They capitalize on market trends by buying when prices are rising and selling when prices are falling. Their ability to execute trades rapidly and efficiently has made them a dominant force in the oil market, often amplifying price swings and influencing market direction.5
The Tide Turns for Algorithmic Traders
However, the reign of algorithmic traders in the oil market has faced a significant setback. According to Bridgeton Research Group, which tracks computer-generated trades, CTAs have posted consecutive annual losses for the first time in more than a decade.6 This downturn can be attributed to several factors, including increased market volatility, unexpected geopolitical events, and the inherent limitations of trend-following strategies in rapidly changing market conditions.
As a result of these losses, CTAs are reducing their exposure to crude oil.7 It is estimated that they have decreased the weight of crude in their portfolios to a mere 2% compared to 4% in July 2024.8 This pullback is softening their impact on market movements and reducing their share of open interest, signaling a significant shift in the oil trading landscape.9
The Impact on the Oil
The retreat of algorithmic traders from the oil market has several potential implications:
1. Reduced Market Market Volatility: Algorithmic trading, particularly trend-following strategies, has been known to exacerbate price swings in the oil market.10 With their reduced presence, the market may experience less volatility and more gradual price movements.
2. Increased Influence of Fundamental Factors: As the influence of algorithmic trading wanes, fundamental factors such as supply and demand, economic indicators, and geopolitical events may play a more prominent role in determining oil prices.
3. Opportunities for Traditional Traders: The pullback of algorithmic traders could create opportunities for traditional traders who rely on fundamental analysis and market expertise. With less competition from high-speed algorithms, these traders may find it easier to identify and capitalize on profitable trading opportunities.
4. A More Balanced Market: The reduced dominance of algorithmic trading could lead to a more balanced and efficient oil market, where a wider range of factors and participants determines prices.
The Future of Algorithmic Trading in Oil
While algorithmic traders are currently taking a step back from the oil market, it is unlikely that they will disappear entirely. These sophisticated systems still offer significant advantages in terms of speed, efficiency, and data analysis. As technology continues to advance, algorithmic trading is expected to remain an integral part of the financial landscape.
However, the recent losses serve as a reminder that algorithmic trading is not without its risks. These systems are only as good as the algorithms and data they are based on. In rapidly changing and unpredictable markets, even the most sophisticated algorithms can struggle to generate consistent profits.
Conclusion
The retreat of algorithmic traders from the oil market marks a significant turning point. After years of dominating the trading landscape, these computer-driven entities are pulling back, potentially paving the way for a more balanced and less volatile market. While the long-term impact remains to be seen, this shift underscores the dynamic nature of financial markets and the importance of adapting to changing conditions.
USOUSD (Oil) Key support follow up.Thanks for checking our latest update, and happy new year to all. Today, we have followed up on our last oil update. You can see this update on the link below.
The main topic of the last update was a key support area. The area held, and we saw a new rally develop. Today, we have looked at that rally and asked if it's going to break the long-term downtrend or if we could see price contnue to remain rangebound.
We see short-term resistance at $74.75 and short-term support at $73.20.
As always, traders must remain vigilant and stay abreast of the latest updates from OPEC and geopolitical influences, as these factors can significantly impact the market.
Good trading from Eightcap.
Gldobal growth in the long term Gldobal growth in the long term
Oil is a manipulated market and 70 is traceable as a fundamental level of consensus. At any rate, it's being tried to be defended and the US is probably in on it. Trump, as is obvious, was just saying what he needed to say for the voters, what he was told to say by the dudes at Palantir processing big data. Trump's intelligence appears to be zero. So what he said can safely be forgotten. And remember that there were no bans without Trump, everything that was commercially viable was mined without him. And those who are extracting, and not flapping their tongues, the price below 70 is unprofitable, that's the first assumption. I'm not insisting on anything.
Now, if you look at the oil market - not so long ago there was nothing to see, but now it looks like this huge downward complex wave may be over. If I'm right, we can assume that it already has enough sub-cycles of all degrees to be considered complete. Plus, the diagonal nature of both of these triangles is precisely what is meant by trying to sort of “reach” or get closer to some level. The longer the negative trends for this market persisted, the closer - and with a narrower range - prices approached the minimum important level, then stayed there for a long time in a very narrow range, but as soon as there were reasons for a bounce, they bounced back up.
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