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Crude oil bears are not finished, predict the trend of crude oilAs the banking crisis hit the global financial and oil markets, NYMEX crude oil and Brent crude oil both fell more than 9% this week, and oil prices will record their largest weekly decline since the week of December 9 last year. From the perspective of the trend, crude oil rebounded weakly after breaking through the level. Whether it is the daily or weekly line, it is effectively falling below. Pay attention to the trend after a few months of volatility. The market must continue to take advantage of the trend in the short term. Taken together, crude oil as a whole is still in a bearish trend. At the daily level, crude oil oscillates and breaks downwards, and oil prices lose important support near the 70 mark. The market tends to continue to run downwards in the Bollinger band. The target refers to the position near the low of 62.43 on December 2, 2021.Since oil prices have recorded a longer lower K-line for two consecutive trading days, suggesting strong lower support, a DOJI was recorded on Thursday, and the KD technical indicators are also close to issuing an oversold signal. There is still a possibility of volatility bottoming out in the short term; the initial resistance is near the intraday high of 70, and the short-term resistance can be reasonably lowered to near 68.6-68.8. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
TVC:USOILShort
by Short-term-king
2
Oil prices start to rebound, go long?Oil prices bottomed out and rebounded on Thursday, ending a three-day decline. Earlier, there were reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia met to discuss how to strengthen market stability. The two countries continue to promise to abide by the decision to reduce their production target by 2 million barrels per day by the end of 2023; helped by a strong rebound in the financial sector, US stocks closed sharply higher and also boosted oil prices. However, the risk of spread between banks still makes investors nervous, suppressing their appetite for assets such as commodities, because they fear that further rout may trigger a global recession and reduce oil demand.In addition, market concerns about oversupply still cast a shadow over the outlook for the oil market.The IEA said on Wednesday that commercial oil stocks in developed OECD countries have hit an 18-month high, and Russia's oil production in February remained near the level before the war in Ukraine, despite sanctions on maritime exports. From the trend point of view, oil prices have recorded a longer downward K-line for two consecutive trading days, suggesting strong downward support. On Thursday, a doji was recorded. The technical indicators are close to issuing an oversold signal. There is still a possibility of short-term volatility in oil prices. Bottoming out; however, before regaining the 70 mark, oil prices as a whole are still running in the air.At present, the initial resistance is near 70. If this position can be further recovered, it will increase the bullish signal in the future. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
TVC:USOILShort
by Short-term-king
Ready to short crude oilThere are still concerns about the banking crisis in Europe and the United States in the market. Some investors are even worried about the arrival of a new round of global economic crisis. Moreover, the market is still worried about the oversupply of crude oil, and the future of oil prices is still biased towards bears. It was mentioned in the article shared yesterday that once crude oil is established to be effective in breaking below the 70 mark, it is likely to fall further below the low of 66.15 on December 20, 2021 and the low of 62.46 on December 2, 2021. Near the position.At present, since crude oil fell below the low of 72.3 in the shock range, it has fallen sharply again. The lowest has reached near 65.6, and there is only room for 3 US dollars from the low of 62.46 on December 2, 2021. Now the short market is very strong, even in a small cycle, after a short pause or rebound in the falling market, it will choose to fall again, and the bulls have no resistance.Therefore, the current thinking about crude oil is still based on emptiness. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
TVC:USOILShort
by Short-term-king
Crude oil continues to fall, where will it stop?After the recent bankruptcy of Bank of America, the pessimism of global investors lingered, and the increase in API crude oil inventories was greater than expected. It is expected that oil prices will still be at risk of further decline in the future. In the trend of crude oil, the short-term decline continued during the day. The current lowest point during the day reached near 69.82, which broke the support near 70.09 at the bottom of the shock box for the past four months since December 9, and fell below the 70 integer mark, which means that oil prices have broken the shock trend for the past four months and have the possibility of accelerating the decline. Once it is established that the fall below the 70 mark is effective, further strong support refers to the low of 66.15 on December 20, 2021 and the low of 62.46 on December 2. Near the position. In addition, this trading day also needs to focus on the EIA crude oil inventory series data and the IEA monthly crude oil market report. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me.
TVC:USOILShort
by Short-term-king
4
Oil Finally Broke 3 Month Consolidation USOil has been consolidating since late December. If you're a trend trader you know you're either going to be waiting for price to break the consolidation range before you trade or if you were already in the trade, you'll be holding onto the trade until price begins trending again. Well, USOil finally made a new low. This is a great time to setup for future sell positions if rice pulls back and can stay below the last lower high price. If you haven't read my previous post on oil, where I go into detail about the consolidation range, give it a read. The post is below. As always, thanks for reading this quick post. Be sure to like the post to boost it. I appreciate it.
EIGHTCAP:USOUSDShort
by ShaquanLopez
USO: Forest Bathing 🌲🌳 🌲🌳Forest bathing can improve mental or physical health, as spending time in nature can reduce stress and pain and boost positive mood. The United States Oil Fund should take this to heart and set out for the lush composite consisting of the turquoise zone between $52.24 and $43.83 and the green zone between $46.36 and $40.29. Therefore, it should drop below the support at $63.00, which should provide further downwards pressure. Wave 2 in turquoise should then ideally finish just before the support at $45.30, changing into upwards movement afterward. It is also possible, though, that USO could climb above the resistance at $72.22 to expand the last low in the form of wave alt.b in orange first before heading downwards.
AMEX:USO
by MarketIntel
Overall bullish direction unchangedNews: The short-term impact of Saudi Arabia and Iran announcing the resumption of diplomatic relations on the international energy market is limited. However, in the long term, due to the impact of the development of new energy sources and reduced international investment, OPEC oil-producing countries hope to maintain oil prices at relatively high levels to achieve fiscal balance and ensure domestic financial income. This means that the expansion of OPEC's influence will be beneficial for the global oil market to stabilize and maintain at a relatively high level for a longer period. Technical Analysis: Crude oil is still volatile and closed lower this week, but the real body of the candlestick chart has not broken down. Therefore, it is possible to see a bullish candlestick chart next week, with a preference for low long positions. The weekly support level is around 75.6, and the resistance level is around 80, so it is possible to consider high short and low long positions. On Friday, the daily chart showed a bullish candlestick with a long shadow and closed at 74.7, suggesting an upward trend at the beginning of the week. The support level is around 76.1, and the daily trading position is uncertain, but a long position can be taken if it does not break down. If the market is volatile, it may give a buying opportunity near 75.3, with the target of breaking above 77.4 and possibly reaching above 1 USD. The recent strategy is based on two possibilities shown in the chart, and the second possibility is currently being followed. However, regardless of which possibility is followed, the overall direction is still bullish, and attention should be paid to the retracement of small cycles. Specific operations will be updated in real-time, and everyone should keep track of the market's real-time changes, remain calm, and make accurate judgments. All theories are just references.
TVC:USOILLong
by Navigation-h
What impact will there be after bankruptcy for SVB? The main reason for SVB's problem this time is liquidity. The banking industry is different from other industries, where the importance of liquidity is far greater than profitability. In the past few decades, there have been too many banks that have experienced extreme risks due to liquidity issues, and SVB has fallen into the same trap. The management was aware of the bankruptcy, as the CEO cashed out $3.6 million in stocks two weeks before disclosing the losses. The exaggeration was that a few hours before the announcement of bankruptcy, the company still distributed bonuses for 2022 to its employees. It is a stark contrast between those who received the bonus and thinking about how to spend it, and those who cannot withdraw their deposits and are worried about the situation. The market is concerned about the possibility of systemic risk and a Lehman-like crisis. As discussed earlier, based on the data, the liquidity risk of large banks is manageable, and the Federal Reserve is providing a backstop. However, there are around 5,000 banks in the United States, and more than just SVB may face liquidity risks in a high-interest rate environment. (Based on the data, there is a significant amount of unrealized losses for the four largest banks in the United States. The risk depends on the ratio of "hold-to-maturity investments/total liabilities." The ratios for the four banks are 22%, 12%, 12%, and 17%, while SVB's ratio is as high as 47%. Overall, the risk appears manageable.) The bankruptcy of SVB has the deepest impact on technology companies, as Silicon Valley Bank was set up to provide financing to technology companies, so many technology companies also keep their cash in SVB. Many companies have already disclosed the amount of their deposits in SVB over the weekend, and the impact on the technology industry is indeed significant. In theory, the money in SVB is safe because the asset problem is not significant, but due to the mismatch of terms, it takes six months or even a year to pay, which is a huge pressure for some technology startups. Those who have started a business know that every day they wake up, they have to pay rent and salaries, and liquidity is the core support for company operations. Hedge funds in the United States have already begun to look for opportunities to enter this time-limited money-making opportunity. Today, a hedge fund proposed to buy the startup company's deposits in SVB at a price as low as 60% of face value. It is indeed taking advantage of the situation to buy at this price, and if the asset confirmation is no problem, the portion due in a year, which is a 5% discount rate, is highly likely to be recovered by more than 90%. The bankruptcy of SVB has had a significant impact on financial assets, and the US stock market has fallen for two consecutive days mostly because of this. The US bond yield has also fallen for two consecutive days, and the flight to safety sentiment is beginning to spread. In the final analysis, the reason for SVB's bankruptcy this time is the Federal Reserve's rapid rate hike. Many contradictions will be highlighted in a high-interest-rate environment. The United States may still be relatively stable, and the greatest volatility may be in Europe and emerging markets. The follow-up is to pay attention to whether there will be further impacts and the Federal Reserve's further actions. The Federal Reserve has confirmed that it will hold an emergency closed meeting of the Federal Reserve System Board of Directors at 11:30 am local time on Monday, and we await the outcome of the meeting. Follow me and you'll get more interesting investment information! Plus, I'll share real-time trading strategies during trading hours, including stocks, gold , crude oil , forex, cryptocurrencies, and more!
S
by EagleEyeStrategy
Crude oil: next target 80Scott Sheffield, CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources, a major US shale oil producer, stated at the CERAWeek energy conference held in Texas this week that oil prices have hit bottom and could surge 17% by summer. In an interview, Sheffield said that over the past year ending in December, US production growth was only about half of what was expected and the industry has been facing ongoing issues of declining refinery capacity and inventory. Over the past few months, the price of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil has fluctuated around $73-80 per barrel. On Thursday of this week, WTI crude oil prices hovered around $77 per barrel, while Brent crude oil prices were around $83 per barrel. Sheffield expects oil production growth to slow significantly, although not necessarily to decline, due to the constraints of refinery capacity and inventory. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the US produced an average of 11.9 million barrels of crude oil per day in 2022, lower than the record average of 12.3 million barrels per day in 2019. EIA predicts that daily oil production will be 12.4 million barrels per day this year. Sheffield believes that the US may recover to a production level of around 13 million barrels per day in two to three years, which is equivalent to the level recorded in November 2019. He added that this will be a "very slow pace." There are two reasons for the slow growth in US crude oil production: insufficient refinery capacity and limited inventory. Sheffield pointed out that "first, we don't have refinery capacity. If we increase drilling, service costs will rise another 20-30%, which will take away free cash flow. Second, this industry does not have enough inventory." He added, "Our estimate of free cash flow last year was $8 billion, and we expect free cash flow in 2023 to be only $4 billion." As for when oil prices will rise, Sheffield expects that "at some point this summer, WTI will break through $80 and move towards $90 per barrel." The market is changing rapidly, I hope everyone can seize the opportunity and make money The personal free guidance channel is open for a limited time, you are welcome to join
TVC:USOILLong
by Navigation-h
Crude Oil: Ideas and SolutionsCrude oil market trend analysis: Crude oil is still in a volatile state, with a bearish close this week but the body of the candlestick did not break through the support level. Therefore, a bullish close is not ruled out next week, and a long position with a bias towards the downside can be considered. The weekly support is around 75.6, with resistance around 80, and it is possible to consider a long position with a high short. On the daily chart, the price stabilized and rose on Friday, with a long upper shadow and a bullish close, suggesting a bias towards an initial rise at the beginning of next week. Support is around 76.1, and there is a long and short division within the day. If it does not break, a long position can be established first. If the market is volatile, there may be an opportunity to long around 75.3, with the first target above 77.4. Methods to resolve long and short positions: For investors with high-priced long or short positions, they can use rebound market trends to resolve their positions or reduce positions at a high level. Once the market changes, stop-loss positions should be established and positions should be reversed to compensate for losses. For investors with mid-priced long or short positions, they can temporarily observe and not rush to cut positions. If there are opportunities in the market, they can reduce positions appropriately, add positions based on trends combined with technical analysis, and compensate for losses. For investors with low-priced long or short positions, they can use the market downturn to resolve their positions or reduce positions at a low level. Once the market changes, stop-loss positions should be established and positions should be reversed to compensate for losses. For friends who have positions in the market, since I do not know the specific details of your position, it is difficult to provide corresponding strategies to resolve your positions. If you need to resolve your problem, you can enter a personal free channel for further information.
TVC:USOILLong
by Navigation-h
OIL: Expected to rebound to $80 The oil price also rose nearly $2 under the stimulus of data, reaching a high near $77. On the 30-minute chart, oil underwent a wave of pullback after consolidating near 76.6, and its current position is the previous consolidation level, which has some resistance but not strong. The short-term strong resistance should be around 77.4. From a technical standpoint, the current process resembles the formation of a U-shaped bottom, with the MACD indicator in a crossover state. If a death cross occurs, it means that oil prices will experience a short-term pullback to seek support, which is likely to be around 75.6-76. On the 4-hour chart, oil has been oscillating within a box range, and the range of 81-82 is a strong pressure level. The MACD indicator has formed a golden cross, and unless there are unexpected events, the oil price is expected to touch near 81 in the near future. Therefore, I believe that the current focus should be on long positions for oil, with buying points around the support level near 76. The first target is around 78, and the second target is around 80. If it breaks through 80, it can go up to around 82. The probability of a one-step trend is not high, and oscillating upward is the most likely event. Every pullback after each rise will be a very good long entry point. Thank you for your attention and trust. Please continue to follow me, and I will bring you more wonderful insights and help you gain more profits!
TVC:USOILLong
by triumphing
Crude Oil CROSSROAD! Reversal or Breakout? 12.0376.80-77.10-20 is a crucial resistance level. A break above may lead quickly towards 80.80 and beyond. Keeping below may lead to retest of 74.90 to 73.20 support trend-line. 74.90 is the trend-line, 73.20 is a cluster of horizontal support. Keep to the range and be patient! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I do advise practicing caution while trading, especially leveraged products. Do your own research and never trade what you cannot afford to lose. --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOIL
by Exactus
7
The support is not broken:upYesterday's long positions in crude oil yielded good profits, and after taking profits, crude oil experienced a temporary decline. Currently, the medium to long-term strategy for crude oil is still biased towards long positions. The chart shows two support levels and two possible trends. Aggressive traders can go long now, but they should be mindful of their position sizes. Conservative traders can watch and wait for the next move. From a technical analysis perspective, crude oil rose then fell yesterday, with the highest rebound reaching the 78.0 resistance level and then declining below the 4-hour midline. It fell again at the end of the day, and closed at a low point. The daily chart closed with a bearish K-line, forming a continuous downward trend. From the daily K-line structure, the continuous decline suggests a further decline. However, overall, it is still oscillating within a wide range of 72.0-82.0, and may return to the lower range, but breaking through will be difficult. It may also end up oscillating after a downward probe. The 4-hour chart continues to decline below the midline, and the step-by-step downward trend continues. Yesterday's high point of 78.0 is the critical point for short-term bears and also the short-term defense point for the midline Bollinger band. Below this point, traders can consider short positions. The overall break of the hourly chart support level of 76.0 has turned into short-term resistance. Taking into account yesterday's rebound and subsequent decline, today's trading may repeat this type of oscillating downward trend, with only the strength of the rebound determining the entry point for short positions. In summary, for short-term trading in crude oil today, it is recommended to focus on the resistance level of 78.0-79.0 and the support level of 74.0-73.0. Welcome to the discussion channel and express your thoughts
TVC:USOILLong
by Navigation-h
1
WTI OIL 13 March AnalysisWTI Oil has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern on the price chart, which is a technical analysis pattern that appears when the highs and lows of the price action converge towards each other, forming a triangle shape. This pattern indicates a period of consolidation or indecision in the market, as buyers and sellers are evenly matched, causing the price to fluctuate within a tight range. Traders often watch for a confirmation of either a breakout or breakdown from this pattern, which can indicate a potential trend reversal or continuation. It's important to use additional indicators such as volume, momentum, and moving averages to confirm and evaluate the strength of the move before taking action. The crucial area to monitor is illustrated on the chart, and traders should be cautious of false breakouts. Make necessary move during this breakout or breakdown.
TVC:USOIL
by arnvon1213
OIL: Short above 77 today Oil saw a high-volume drop below support near 78 yesterday, which turned the immediate position into a resistance level. As of now, there has not been a complete breakthrough and the trend has weakened, so in terms of trading, selling short positions is the main strategy for today, with buying long positions as a secondary strategy. Specific trading strategies: Sell short near 77.4-78.5, take profit near 76 Buy long near 75.7-74.2, take profit near 76.5 I will continue to track market trends and share trading strategies in real time. Thank you for your attention and support. If you have any questions, please leave a message in the comments section. I will provide you with the most sincere and responsible solutions to help you solve your problems. Many things may not yield immediate results at first, but only those who persist in pursuing their goals can experience the joy of success. As the saying goes, "Every cloud has a silver lining." The effort you put in will eventually receive a satisfactory response from time.
TVC:USOILShort
by triumphing
1
step back on key support and continue to consider long ordersOn Wednesday, the data was bullish, but crude oil did not rise. After a weak rebound, it continued to decline. The market has already released most of its downward pressure here, and it is highly likely that it will rebound from here. If it falls directly to 75.50 without rebounding, it may be considered for a low long position. Friends who have long positions need not worry for now. I am not sure about everyone's position and direction, so feel free to leave a message below or join the discussion channel to discuss together. Being trapped is not scary, what's scary is not having a method. The following are the reasons for expecting a bottoming and rebound in crude oil: The downward momentum of crude oil has weakened, and the daily candlestick shows a clear reduction in the size of the bearish body. According to the updated wave trading system, the current trend is still considered to be part of the upgraded X wave c, and the structure of X wave a suggests that there may be further downside in the short term, followed by another upward movement. The intraday resistance is at 76.90-77.30, and support is at 76-75.50.
TVC:USOILLong
by Navigation-h
4