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Oiltrading

A Crude Awakening!The surprise production cut announcement from OPEC+ on Sunday caught us off guard! With oil prices surging close to 7%, the question arises: will this trend persist? To put the production cut into perspective, the unexpected 1.16 million barrels per day reduction is a continuation of the cuts announced last October. In total, these cuts will represent roughly 3.7% of global demand. Since it has been some time since we covered oil, let's revisit some of the factors we see affecting oil now. Strategic Petroleum Reserve First, the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) is currently at its lowest level since 1983. The remarkable depletion of the reserve to combat energy inflation finally ended in December. How has crude oil performed since then? It has been trading relatively flat, with the recent news pushing crude back to its December peak levels. We view this as a potential positive for crude oil, as the current low SPR levels indicate that supplies cannot be easily smoothed out by artificial market forces to suppress oil prices. Furthermore, the SPR will eventually require a refill at some point, adding buying pressure. Dollar weakness As crude oil is quoted in USD, the dollar's performance greatly influences oil prices. The chart above depicts the dollar (inverted) against crude oil. Over the past 20 years, periods of dollar weakening have been associated with higher oil prices. With the recent dollar decline, we have yet to see a significant response from crude. COT Positioning Another interesting note about oil is the reduction of non-commercial long positions over the past year as oil rallied from the depths of negative prices in 2020. As long positions close, net positioning (blue) has returned to 2016 lows. The current positioning landscape presents opportunities for a renewed surge in Crude Oil if market participants re-establish their longs. Term Structure The term structure of Crude Oil remains significantly in backwardation, indicating possible demand pressures, as measured by the Dec 2023 – Dec 2024 spread as well as the Jun 2023 – Jun 2024 spreads. The news on OPEC production cut resulted in a spike in the steepness of the term structure, further emphasizing the presence of price pressures. Political Gamesmanship Last but not least, as global powerhouses China, Russia, and Saudi Arabia jockey for positions on the world stage, it's undeniable that oil plays a pivotal role in their strategic arsenal. By leveraging their influence over this vital commodity, these nations may attempt to exert pressure on the US, seeking to tip the geopolitical balance in their favor and assert their dominance in the energy market. Looking at the charts, we see crude oil struggling to break lower after completing a descending triangle. The recent gap up has now positioned Crude Oil just above the 200-day moving average and descending triangle. Combined, the stage seems set for oil’s next leg higher as the low SPR levels, dollar weakness, term structure & net positioning act as potential tailwinds to propel Crude Oil higher. We set our stops at the previous support level of 73.15 and take-profit levels at 92. Each Crude Oil Future contract is equal to 1000 barrels of crude oil. Each 0.01 point increment in Crude Oil Futures is equal to 10 USD. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify trading set-ups in real-time and express our market opinions. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios. A full version of the disclaimer is available in our profile description. Reference: www.cmegroup.com www.reuters.com
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by inspirante
16
Will oil prices continue to rise?The decline in U.S. crude oil inventories and the suspension of exports from the Kurdistan region of Iraq have supported the upward trend in oil prices, overshadowing the smaller-than-expected pressure on Russia's supply cuts.At the same time, five OPEC+ representatives said that the alliance may stick to the existing oil production reduction agreement at Monday's meeting. On the technical side, WTI crude oil fluctuated and fell after the opening of the market, and slowly recovered after reaching a minimum of 73.74. The current price is trading near 74.7. Although crude oil is currently facing strong technical pressure, which has led to a small decline in the current situation, but the short-term upward structure has still not been effectively destroyed, so it can maintain a low bullish pattern in the short term. Short-term trading reference: 1.Buy crude oil near the 73.7 position, stop loss level 73.3, take profit level 75.2 2.Try to sell crude oil in small batches near 75.3, with a stop loss level of 75.6 and a take profit level of 74.3 In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
TVC:USOILLong
by Short-term-king
WTI CRUDE OIL Target hit. Now prepare for the top.WTI Crude Oil hit the MA200 (4h) today for the first time since March 9th. We got our target hit from buying at the bottom (chart in the end of analysis) and now we are switching to selling as the price is closer to the top of the 3-month Channel Down pattern. Trading Plan: 1. Sell on the current market price as the price completed a +16% rise, matching the strongest rally so far this year. Targets: 1. 67.00 (Support 1). Tips: 1. The RSI (4h) is forming the very same peak pattern as all previous tops since December. Similar to the bottom formation when we started buying. Please like, follow and comment!! Notes: This is a continuation of this trading plan:
TVC:USOILShort
by TradingBrokersView
15
Can the oil price recovery last?Judging from the trend of crude oil, since crude oil rebounded above 74, the technical bullish signal has been significantly strengthened.However, although the current oil price has returned to the range of the box, on the whole, the current price has basically touched the vicinity of the pressure zone of the previous box shock.In addition, judging from the strength of the recent rebound, it has not been as strong, so the trend may face a certain level of adjustment in the short term, and there is a technical need to step back on the midline of the channel to confirm the demand.After the last wave of the 4-hour level trend rose, the price was temporarily.The narrow volatility that remains at a high level weakens the strength of the upper attack, so there may be a trend of spatial correction in the short term. Short-term trading reference: Sell crude oil near the 74.3 position, stop loss level 74.7, take profit level 73.2 In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
TVC:USOILShort
by Short-term-king
Rising oil prices are under pressure, so be careful of trapsAlthough the interruption of some exports from the Kurdistan region of Iraq has raised concerns about tighter supply, the United States is expected to start strategic reserve repurchases during the year, which will also benefit oil prices to promote a rebound in oil prices.However, because of the geopolitical situation between Russia and Ukraine, it is more the West that sanctions Russia, so it will not allow oil prices to rise sharply and have sufficient income, thus limiting the room for oil prices to rebound to a certain extent. From the perspective of crude oil trends, since the surge on March 27, there has not been a decent pullback and repair, so crude oil technically needs at least a second pullback to prove the effectiveness of the oil price increase. Short-term trading reference: sell crude oil near 74, stop loss level 74.4, take profit level 73.3 In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
TVC:USOILShort
by Short-term-king
1
WTI CRUDE OIL: One High left before new selling pressure.The WTI Crude Oil is being currently rejected on the 4H MA200 but with 4H technicals naturally bullish still (RSI = 61.154, MACD = 1.320, ADX = 61.771). This is due to the strong 9 day rally since the price made a bottom on the LL trendline of the Channel Down of December. The 4H RSI also got rejected on the 70.000 overbought level and 5 times out of 6 within this Channel Down, this was an indication that we are either at the top or the last High before the top (LH trendline of the Channel Down). The last three tops were priced on the 1D MA100. We give slightly higher probabilities of this happening again. Sell this and TP = 67.00 (S1). Prior idea: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILShort
by InvestingScope
1
The rise of crude oil bulls is unstoppable?Because the banking crisis has temporarily eased, supply disruptions in northern Iraq have exacerbated supply tensions, and signs of increased demand from China have provided stronger support for oil prices. Judging from the trend of crude oil, after yesterday's sharp rise in oil prices, it rebounded to above US 70, and the technical bullish signal was significantly strengthened.However, although the current oil price has returned to the range of the box, on the whole, the current price has basically touched the vicinity of the pressure zone of the box shock in the early stage, and it has also touched the pressure position of the channel in the short term.Oil prices are under pressure at the point of pressure, and the strength of today's rebound is not as strong, so the rebound that tends to be on the daily line in the short term may be almost gone, then the short-term trend may face a certain level of adjustment.On the other hand, after the last wave of the 4-hour-level trend rose, the price temporarily remained at a high level of narrow volatility. On the hourly-level trend, after a continuous narrow sideways movement, the technical pattern began to gradually weaken, so there may be a trend of spatial correction in the short term. Short-term trading reference: sell crude oil near 73.80, stop loss level 74.2, take profit level 73.1-73 In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
TVC:USOILShort
by Short-term-king
Crudeoil bears are working hard again, where will crudeoil fall?There may not be a shortcut to success, but there must be a way.Give up what should be given up, grasp what can be grasped; only insist on investing in your own investment standards. Yesterday's short crude oil orders reaped very good profits, and the current crude oil is creating favorable trading opportunities for us. At present, the U.S. Secretary of Energy has hinted that the country is in no hurry to replenish the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), exacerbating concerns about oversupply in the market.In addition, Russia's continued supply of crude oil to the global market has also increased the pressure on the oil market, causing oil prices to fall again. At present, crude oil has fallen as low as 66.8.Judging from the trend of crude oil, the rebound of crude oil has been blocked for two consecutive trading days, and a longer upper shadow line has been left, forming a secondary pressure, so the suppression of resistance above the 71 position is still relatively obvious.I also mentioned in my article yesterday that if oil prices are delayed in regaining the 72.4 position, there is a technical need for a second bottoming demand, which will increase the short-term bearish signal. In the short-term treatment, the upper side initially pays attention to the pressure near 69, and the lower side pays attention to the support near 66.8. In order to facilitate everyone to continue to follow up on my analysis and sharing, you can like and follow me; in addition, I will share the daily real-time strategy in the channel. If you can't follow up in real time, you may make operational errors.You can use the following methods to enter my channel for free to follow the latest news and follow up on market trends in real time.
TVC:USOILShort
by Short-term-king