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WTI OIL: This uptrend has more fuel.As WTI Oil hit technical neutrality on the 1D time-frame (RSI = 51.471, MACD = -0.510, ADX = 37.488), it reached Pivot1 (P1) and the 4H MA200 to pause and consolidate. As with the previous two rallies, we expect this to have some more fuel left and we are aiming at the 1D MA100 (TP = 80.50) that rejected the last uptrend 3 times. After that, our sell trigger is a break below P1, and we will aim at the top of S1 (TP = 73.50). We are not waiting for the extension to R1 but rather will wait for the HH to break (bullish trigger) and aim below R2 (TP = 87.00). P.S. Perfect execution of our last Oil signal: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILLong
by InvestingScope
9
Oil's long term re-test before upcoming rally? 13.2.2023Simple 1+1 equals 2. There's a couple factors here. 1) Long-term support since March 2023 kept with multiple re-tests. 2) Long-term 8 month wedge consolidation with recent Jan 2023 breakout up together with RETEST of that breakout at 74.80-75.20 as of today. If the week closes above this support, VERY high chance for continuation of breakout up and 80's-90's even 100 to be reached within coming weeks. If the support of 74.80-75.20 breaks down, retest of long-term March 2021 to today support trend-line is possible at 71.40-60. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I encourage to do your own research and trade with caution Thank you for reading and would very much appreciate your comments and questions! ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TVC:USOILLong
by Exactus
7
Brent showing a further plummet to $67.89 Rising Flag has formed after the downtrend with Brent. The price has broken below the rising flag which confirms bearishness. 200 > 21 > 7 - Bearish RSI <50 Target $67.89 FUNDAMENTALS: We've seen the US Dollar start to strengthen a bit which is can continue to do so for the next few weeks. A strengthening US dollar can cause Brent crude price to drop because oil is priced in dollars. When the value of the dollar increases relative to other currencies, it makes oil more expensive for buyers using those currencies, which can result in decreased demand and lower prices. Additionally, a strong dollar can also make it more attractive for investors to sell commodities, including oil, in exchange for the higher-valued currency, putting downward pressure on prices.
ICEEUR:BRN1!Short
by Timonrosso
Leading Indicators To Improve Decision Making in Oil TradingHello Traders! As you know, trading is a game of probabilities and navigating the financial markets is not always easy. Different strategies that we use, such as Elliott wave analysis and pattern trading, can provide different scenarios for market movements. However, market conditions are often uncertain and can extend beyond what is predicted by these strategies. In such cases, it is useful to have access to scientifically proven tools that can help us better assess the probabilities of different scenarios. One such tool is the use of leading indicators. In this educational idea, we will explore the use of a leading indicator for Wti prices that embodies information from futures term spread and Relative Inventories. Correlation with Relative Inventories is due to the basic supply and demand dynamics of the market. When inventories are high, there is an oversupply of oil which puts downward pressure on prices. Conversely, when inventories are low, there is a shortage of oil which puts upward pressure on prices. Another useful metric for predicting oil prices is the term spread. The term spread refers to the difference between the prices of two oil contracts with different delivery dates. Researchers have found that changes in the term spread can be a leading indicator of future prices. The relationship between the term spread and oil prices comes from the fact that the term spread reflects changes in market expectations about future supply and demand for oil. Studies have confirmed the predictive power of both relative inventories and the term spread. Starting in a seminar paper by Hamilton (1983), it was demonstrated that changes in inventories had a significant impact on future oil prices. Similarly, other research has shown that changes in the term spread have a strong correlation with future oil price movements (e.g., Kilian and Murphy, 2009), and now there are a vastity of academic paper that explores that correlations and the predictive possibilities. Here another couple of references: www.sciencedirect.com gupea.ub.gu.se Now, I want to bring you an example of how these empirical result can be exploited and used in trading. In the main chart indeed I show an indicator constructed to reproduce the forecasting model proposed in the last article that I linked (Larsson, 2018). This Forecasting Model is a time series ARIMA model that uses both relative inventories and term spread between 3-months ahead contract and the 40-months ahead contract, together with squared relative inventories to capture non linearities in the relation between inventories and wti price. You can see the forecasted model in the red line, while the blue line is the weekly oil closing price. I will report again here the chart for clarity: After the uptrend ended, in which the forecasting model overshooted before crossing back, we can see that every time the red line (forecasting model) retested the blue line (actual price) the retest was followed by a strong decrease in price. This was use for us as confirmation for our bearish scenario on oil, that we are still trading. I hope you can find this post useful! If you have any comment, please share, we will be happy! Cheers, GMR
TVC:USOILEducation
by GMR-Capital
5
USOUSD (Crude Oil) Daily: 06/02/2023: Does it fall more? Main idea: According to the weekly analysis, we expect a bear market. In this case, there is a liquidity pool below 72.42 that can be defined as a first target. There is good support at 72.05, if the price can break this support, the price can fall to 67.5. After collecting liquidity under 72.42, the price may have a short-term upward move. We can define 74.83- 75.7 as a supply zone that can push the price down. 💡Wait for the update! 🗓️06/02/2023 🔎 DYOR 💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
VANTAGE:USOUSDShort
by VahidTradingCR
1
USOUSD (Crude Oil): 06/02/2023: Key levels of weekly chart Well here is our long-term view of crude oil. As you can see, the price is in the downtrend and we expect a continuation of a bear market. Bear scenario: In this scenario, we have 66.13- 69.544 as a key zone. The price should break down this zone and stay below. For this goal, the price can move upward till around 75 and then start the main decrease. Bull scenario: Although I see the market in a downtrend, I believe we should be ready for both sides of the market. In this scenario, there is a liquidity pool below 70.22 and exactly after that, we have an important demand zone of 66.13- 69.544. If this zone work, the price can rise to 78.18 as the first target after that goes higher than 82.37, and 87.83 is our last target. 💡Wait for the update! 🗓️06/02/2023 🔎 DYOR 💌It is my honor to share your comments with me💌
VANTAGE:USOUSD
by VahidTradingCR
1
GTE The breakdown of the diagonal is likely a HTF Primary W1 into W2 because it's on the monthly. Typically a leading diagonal is a bearish precursor to a reversal. Also leading diagonals most likely form a wave 1 into w2 set ups. The 786% might be too optimistic, as the wave 1 was 5 up which means sub wave A which equals the 5 up diagonal which equals the HTF w1 is a HTF Zig Zag & Zig Zags can bounce off the 50%-618%. But the underlying nature of W2 is to destroy any hope of the wave 3. So rather the 786% is usually a trademark of the wave 2. Basically a lot of conflicting forces at play here as to where the bottom forms. But catching this dip for a LT play seems very smart as W3 is targeting $16-$18 & Wave 5 $200 plus.
AMEX:GTE
by Big_Mike716
3