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WTI CRUDE OIL: Buy opportunity on the 1D MA50.WTI Crude Oil is neutralizing the previously overbought 1D technical outlook (RSI = 69.520, MACD = 2.080, ADX = 64.888) as after crossing over the R1 level, it is pulling back under it. Technically this has been mirroring the March-August 2023 fractal and based on that, we should see this pull back almost reach the 1D MA50. A buy opportunity is waiting there and our target is the 1.618 Fibonacci level (TP = 86.00). See how our prior idea has worked out: ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOIL
by InvestingScope
Oil Short 4HI’m excited to share my next setup for Oil. This trading idea is based on correction levels. The main idea area is between 80.35 and 80.25. However, since oil tends to react to the 50 levels, I prefer to focus on the 80.5 level for my entry. For the 4-hour entry, I am waiting for the formation of an M pattern with a lower peak at the second base. I’ll be looking to take scalp sell at the levels of 80.25, 80.35, and 80.5 for the first touches. after that, I'm going to wait for the confirmation to take the main Sell. Please note that, typically, upon the first collision, we could experience either an impulse or a rejection entry. At the second base, we should wait for a consolidation area to confirm our entry. For a better understanding of this setup, please refer to my previous oil chart. TP1: 79.9 TP2: 79.2 TP3: 77.4 SL: 81.35 Please remember that trading carries risks, and it's crucial to do your own research. The ideas shared here reflect my personal analysis and may not guarantee success. Always trade responsibly and consider seeking professional advice if needed. Happy trading!
TVC:USOILShort
by Persian_Traders_
2
Navigating the Oil Market volatile prices Crude oil prices have been on a roller coaster ride in recent times, influenced by a multitude of factors, including geopolitical tensions, economic indicators, and OPEC+ production decisions. Let's break down the key elements affecting the current oil market: The Russia-Ukraine War and Sanctions The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine has been a significant driver of oil price volatility. Russia is a major oil exporter, and the Western sanctions imposed on the country have disrupted global supply chains. This has led to supply concerns and consequently, higher oil prices. OPEC+ Production Cuts The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) have been actively managing oil production levels to stabilize the market. Their decision to cut production has had a direct impact on increasing oil prices. This move aims to balance supply and demand, ensuring oil prices remain at profitable levels for member countries. US Oil Production and Inventory Levels The United States is a major oil producer, and its production levels and inventory change s influence global oil prices. While US production has increased, it hasn't been enough to offset the supply disruptions caused by the Russia-Ukraine conflict and OPEC+ production cuts. Lower US oil inventories have also contributed to the upward pressure on prices. Oil Algorithmic Traders Loosen Grip on Market After Back to Back Annual Losses Gusgraph.com Global Economic Recovery and Demand The global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic has led to increased demand for oil. As economies reopen and travel picks up, the demand for fuel has surged, putting upward pressure on oil prices. Other Factors In addition to the above factors, other elements such as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, currency fluctuations, and speculative trading can also impact oil prices. In conclusion, the current oil price surge is a result of a complex interplay between geopolitical events, supply and demand dynamics, and economic indicators. The Russia-Ukraine conflict, OPEC+ production cuts, and robust global economic recovery are the primary drivers pushing oil prices higher. Navigating the Oil Market: A Day Trader's Guide The oil market is a dynamic and complex arena, presenting both significant opportunities and formidable challenges for day traders. Understanding the key drivers of oil price fluctuations is crucial for developing effective trading strategies. Key Factors Influencing Oil Prices: Geopolitical Events: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and the resulting sanctions on Russia have significantly disrupted global oil supply chains. Geopolitical instability in the Middle East, a major oil-producing region, can also trigger price volatility. OPEC+ Production Decisions: The decisions of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies (OPEC+) regarding production cuts or increases have a direct and significant impact on oil prices. Global Economic Growth: Strong economic growth translates to increased demand for energy, driving up oil prices. Conversely, economic slowdowns can lead to lower demand and lower prices. US Oil Production and Inventories: Changes in US oil production and inventory levels play a crucial role in influencing global oil prices. Currency Fluctuations: The value of the US dollar against other major currencies can impact oil prices, as oil is typically priced in US dollars. Day Trading Opportunities in the Oil Market: The volatile nature of the oil market presents several trading opportunities for skilled day traders: Identifying Trends: Identifying and trading with the prevailing trend (uptrend, downtrend, or sideways) is crucial. Technical analysis tools like moving averages and trend lines can be valuable in this regard. Capitalizing on News Events: Anticipating and reacting to news events, such as OPEC+ meetings, geopolitical developments, and economic data releases, can provide significant trading opportunities. Volatility Trading: High volatility periods can create short-term trading opportunities, but require careful risk management and a robust trading plan. Scalping: Scalping involves taking small profits on small price movements. This strategy requires quick decision-making and a deep understanding of market dynamics. Key Considerations for Day Trading Oil: High Volatility: The oil market is known for its volatility, which can present both significant opportunities and risks. Risk Management: Implementing strict stop-loss orders and position sizing strategies is crucial to manage risk effectively. Fundamental Analysis: Stay informed about geopolitical events, economic data, and industry news to make informed trading decisions. Technical Analysis: Utilize technical indicators such as moving averages, RSI, and MACD to identify entry and exit points. Emotional Control: The volatile nature of the oil market can trigger emotional responses. It's crucial to maintain discipline and avoid impulsive trading decisions.
EIGHTCAP:USOUSD
by Gusflier
1
US Sanctions Send Oil Prices to 4-Month High Oil prices have surged to a four-month high following the announcement of new U.S. sanctions targeting oil exports. This sudden price spike reflects the market's sensitivity to geopolitical events and the potential global oil supply disruption. The sanctions, aimed at Russia and potentially India, have immediately triggered concerns about reduced supply, pushing prices upward. This article delves into the details of these sanctions, their potential impact on the oil market, and the broader economic implications. The Sanctions and Their Target The U.S. government has imposed new sanctions on Indian shipping companies. These sanctions specifically target the country's or entities' ability to export oil, a crucial source of revenue. The rationale behind these sanctions, as stated by the U.S. government, is to punish countries that trade for Russia’s oil during a war with Ukraine. The U.S. aims to exert economic pressure on the targeted entity by restricting oil exports, forcing them to change their policies or behavior. Immediate Market Reaction The oil market reacted swiftly to the news of the sanctions. Both Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the global benchmarks for oil prices, experienced significant jumps, reaching levels not seen in four months. This immediate price surge underscores the market's anticipation of reduced supply. Traders are factoring in the potential loss of barrels from the market, leading to increased buying activity and pushing prices higher. Potential Impact on Global Oil Supply The extent of the impact on global oil supply depends on several factors, including the volume of oil previously exported by the sanctioned entity and the ability of other oil-producing nations to compensate for the lost supply. If the sanctioned entity was a significant exporter, the impact on global supply could be substantial, leading to further price increases. Conversely, if other producers can ramp up production to offset the shortfall, the price impact might be mitigated. Impact on Consumers Rising oil prices inevitably translate to higher prices at the pump for consumers. This increase in gasoline prices can have a ripple effect throughout the economy, impacting transportation costs, the price of goods and services, and overall inflation. Consumers may face higher costs for commuting, travel, and everyday purchases. Impact on Businesses Businesses, particularly those in transportation, logistics, and manufacturing, are also significantly affected by rising oil prices. Higher fuel costs increase operating expenses, potentially squeezing profit margins. Businesses may be forced to pass these increased costs on to consumers, further contributing to inflationary pressures. Geopolitical Implications These sanctions and their impact on oil prices also have broader geopolitical implications. They can strain relationships between the U.S. and other countries, particularly those that rely on oil imports from the sanctioned entity. The sanctions can also create opportunities for other oil-producing nations to increase their market share. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) In response to potential supply disruptions, governments may consider releasing oil from their strategic petroleum reserves (SPR). The SPR is an emergency stockpile of crude oil maintained by several countries, including the U.S. Releasing oil from the SPR can temporarily increase supply and help stabilize prices. However, the effectiveness of this measure depends on the size of the release and the duration of the supply disruption. Long-Term Outlook The long-term impact of these sanctions on oil prices is uncertain. It depends on various factors, including the duration of the sanctions, the response of other oil-producing nations, and the overall state of the global economy. If the sanctions remain in place for an extended period and other producers cannot fully compensate for the lost supply, oil prices could remain elevated. Conclusion The recent surge in oil prices following the announcement of new U.S. sanctions highlights the interconnectedness of geopolitics and energy markets. The sanctions, aimed at exerting pressure on India and Russia, have triggered concerns about reduced oil supply and have led to a significant price increase. The impact of these sanctions will be felt by consumers, businesses, and the global economy as a whole. The situation underscores the importance of monitoring geopolitical events and their potential impact on energy markets. While the long-term outlook remains uncertain, the immediate impact is clear: higher oil prices and increased volatility in the energy sector.
TVC:USOILLong
by bryandowningqln
1
CL Week Review 01/06/25 - 01/10/25Looks like my Directional Bias for CL was off. Instead of price coming lower to fill in the BISI and take the PDLs it rallied higher through the Volume Imbalance and raided all the BSL. Now that wick higher on Friday did not stop at a random spot. Look closely and you will notice its the Premium Daily 50% CE level of the wick and price reversed nicely off from there. Now the question remains does price justify to continue higher and take the BSL at 78.46 or does price reverse from there and then target the SSL and the D BISI? Currently its still looking Bullish since price closed above the Volume Imbalance and the PDH from Thu Oct 10 2024 at 76.24 but lets see how price opens on Sunday and we can definitely expect a volatile week since there is a good amount of economic news drivers.
NYMEX:CL1!
by ProphetTheTrader
Oil Algo Trading Strategy Lost Its Edge?Oil Algorithmic Traders Loosen Grip on Market After Back-to-Back Annual Losses A Shift in the Oil Trading Landscape In the intricate world of oil trading, where fortunes are made and lost on the fluctuations of prices, a significant shift is underway. Algorithmic traders, the computer-driven entities that have come to dominate the market, are pulling back after enduring two consecutive years of losses.1 This retreat marks a notable change in the oil market dynamics, potentially paving the way for a more balanced and predictable trading environment. The Rise of Algorithmic Trading Over the past decade, algorithmic trading, also known as automated or high-frequency trading, has revolutionized financial markets, and the oil market is no exception.2 These sophisticated systems employ complex algorithms and statistical models to identify and exploit trading opportunities at speeds that are impossible for human traders to match.3 Commodity Trading Advisors (CTAs), a prominent class of algorithmic traders, specialize in trend-following strategies.4 They capitalize on market trends by buying when prices are rising and selling when prices are falling. Their ability to execute trades rapidly and efficiently has made them a dominant force in the oil market, often amplifying price swings and influencing market direction.5 The Tide Turns for Algorithmic Traders However, the reign of algorithmic traders in the oil market has faced a significant setback. According to Bridgeton Research Group, which tracks computer-generated trades, CTAs have posted consecutive annual losses for the first time in more than a decade.6 This downturn can be attributed to several factors, including increased market volatility, unexpected geopolitical events, and the inherent limitations of trend-following strategies in rapidly changing market conditions. As a result of these losses, CTAs are reducing their exposure to crude oil.7 It is estimated that they have decreased the weight of crude in their portfolios to a mere 2% compared to 4% in July 2024.8 This pullback is softening their impact on market movements and reducing their share of open interest, signaling a significant shift in the oil trading landscape.9 The Impact on the Oil The retreat of algorithmic traders from the oil market has several potential implications: 1. Reduced Market Market Volatility: Algorithmic trading, particularly trend-following strategies, has been known to exacerbate price swings in the oil market.10 With their reduced presence, the market may experience less volatility and more gradual price movements. 2. Increased Influence of Fundamental Factors: As the influence of algorithmic trading wanes, fundamental factors such as supply and demand, economic indicators, and geopolitical events may play a more prominent role in determining oil prices. 3. Opportunities for Traditional Traders: The pullback of algorithmic traders could create opportunities for traditional traders who rely on fundamental analysis and market expertise. With less competition from high-speed algorithms, these traders may find it easier to identify and capitalize on profitable trading opportunities. 4. A More Balanced Market: The reduced dominance of algorithmic trading could lead to a more balanced and efficient oil market, where a wider range of factors and participants determines prices. The Future of Algorithmic Trading in Oil While algorithmic traders are currently taking a step back from the oil market, it is unlikely that they will disappear entirely. These sophisticated systems still offer significant advantages in terms of speed, efficiency, and data analysis. As technology continues to advance, algorithmic trading is expected to remain an integral part of the financial landscape. However, the recent losses serve as a reminder that algorithmic trading is not without its risks. These systems are only as good as the algorithms and data they are based on. In rapidly changing and unpredictable markets, even the most sophisticated algorithms can struggle to generate consistent profits. Conclusion The retreat of algorithmic traders from the oil market marks a significant turning point. After years of dominating the trading landscape, these computer-driven entities are pulling back, potentially paving the way for a more balanced and less volatile market. While the long-term impact remains to be seen, this shift underscores the dynamic nature of financial markets and the importance of adapting to changing conditions.
TVC:USOIL
by bryandowningqln
USOUSD (Oil) Key support follow up.Thanks for checking our latest update, and happy new year to all. Today, we have followed up on our last oil update. You can see this update on the link below. The main topic of the last update was a key support area. The area held, and we saw a new rally develop. Today, we have looked at that rally and asked if it's going to break the long-term downtrend or if we could see price contnue to remain rangebound. We see short-term resistance at $74.75 and short-term support at $73.20. As always, traders must remain vigilant and stay abreast of the latest updates from OPEC and geopolitical influences, as these factors can significantly impact the market. Good trading from Eightcap.
EIGHTCAP:USOUSD
by Eightcap
Gldobal growth in the long term Gldobal growth in the long term Oil is a manipulated market and 70 is traceable as a fundamental level of consensus. At any rate, it's being tried to be defended and the US is probably in on it. Trump, as is obvious, was just saying what he needed to say for the voters, what he was told to say by the dudes at Palantir processing big data. Trump's intelligence appears to be zero. So what he said can safely be forgotten. And remember that there were no bans without Trump, everything that was commercially viable was mined without him. And those who are extracting, and not flapping their tongues, the price below 70 is unprofitable, that's the first assumption. I'm not insisting on anything. Now, if you look at the oil market - not so long ago there was nothing to see, but now it looks like this huge downward complex wave may be over. If I'm right, we can assume that it already has enough sub-cycles of all degrees to be considered complete. Plus, the diagonal nature of both of these triangles is precisely what is meant by trying to sort of “reach” or get closer to some level. The longer the negative trends for this market persisted, the closer - and with a narrower range - prices approached the minimum important level, then stayed there for a long time in a very narrow range, but as soon as there were reasons for a bounce, they bounced back up. 🚀 Trade with the professionals of THS - Wave Theory! 🔹 All trades are based on wave analysis. 🔹 Fixed stop loss and take profit for risk management. 🔹 100% automation: copy trades through CopyFX service. 🔹 Reliability and transparency: the results are confirmed by the market. 📈 Don't miss the chance to earn steadily! 👉 Connect to CopyFX with THS and start copying profitable trades right now! 💡 Details on our channel and in the app!
ICEEUR:BRN1!Long
by Trade_Hive_Signals
WTI/OIL Bullish Signal triggered7 days ago my bullish signal for oil triggered and I am now long.Now many new facts are being released that are align with my signals. I have collected some very important and interpreted them.This will help you also t understand the backrounds. The bullish trend is currently at its weak phase where many false signals are ofcourse potentially possible. In this phase of the trend I focuse just on risk management(tightenning stops,to breakeven etc. But also increasing my positions in this phase and sizing them up are also possible. Later in strong phase of the trend Iwont increase my positions, but I let the profits run. I marked also Taking profits level for some of you who might are taking profits. Generally I let the profits run and just cut the losses if necessary. Important levels I marked in the chart. Here Important catalysts why I believe Oil will climb up: 1 India Doubles Down on Refining Expansion. India’s state-controlled refiner Bharat Petroleum (NSE:BPCL) announced its plans to invest $11 billion in a new refinery in southern Andhra Pradesh state, adding 180,000 b/d of capacity and an integrated petrochemical plant to meet domestic demand. France Launches First Reactor of 21st Century. 12 years overdue and four times the originally planned budget with a price tag of €13 billion, the Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor was finally connected to France’s power grid this week, marking the first addition of new nuclear capacity since Civaux-2 in 1999. 👉 Interpretation France Launches First Reactor of the 21st Century Key Details: Flamanville 3 nuclear reactor, costing €13 billion and delayed by 12 years, is now operational. First new nuclear capacity addition in France since 1999. Implications for Oil Prices: Reduced Dependence on Fossil Fuels: As nuclear energy replaces some fossil fuel-generated electricity, demand for oil (particularly fuel oil used for power generation in some regions) could decline slightly in Europe over the long term. However, this effect is minor since most oil demand comes from transportation rather than power generation. Transition Signals: The operational reactor signals Europe's commitment to energy transition, which may influence long-term sentiment about reduced reliance on fossil fuels. Neutral Short-Term Impact: Since the reactor serves a domestic market and does not affect global oil supply or demand immediately, the impact on oil prices is negligible in the short term. India Doubles Down on Refining Expansion Key Details: Bharat Petroleum plans a $11 billion investment in a new refinery with a capacity of 180,000 b/d and an integrated petrochemical plant. Focus is on meeting India’s growing domestic energy demand. Implications for Oil Prices: Increased Crude Demand: A new refinery requires crude oil as a feedstock, adding to global oil demand. Once operational, this expansion will support bullish trends in oil prices, especially as India becomes a larger importer of crude. Focus on Domestic Market: The refinery aims to meet rising domestic consumption, particularly for transportation fuels and petrochemicals, reinforcing India’s growing importance as a driver of oil demand. Positive Long-Term Outlook: While the refinery won't impact prices immediately, it highlights the bullish long-term demand trajectory for oil in emerging markets like India. Overall Impact on Oil Prices Bullish Factors: India’s refinery expansion indicates long-term growth in oil demand, supporting bullish sentiment. Emerging markets continue to drive global oil demand, balancing out declines in demand from developed regions. Neutral or Bearish Factors: France's new nuclear reactor reflects progress in the energy transition, potentially reducing oil demand in Europe. However, the short-term impact is negligible. Conclusion India's refinery expansion supports a bullish outlook for oil prices, complementing bullish signal. While France’s nuclear reactor signals a step toward alternative energy, its impact on global oil demand is minimal and overshadowed by growing energy needs in emerging markets like India. Overall, the developments reinforce a stable to slightly bullish environment for oil prices. 2 Turkey Eyes Maritime Delimitation with Syria. The Turkish government is readying to start negotiations with the new al-Julani government of Syria to delineate maritime boundaries in the Mediterranean Sea, a move that would allow Ankara to ‘increase its area of influence’ in energy exploration. US to Finance Guyana’s Gas Power Buildout. The US Export-Import Bank approved a $526 million loan to Guyana for the construction of a 300 MW natural gas-fired power plant that would use ExxonMobil’s associated gas production from the Stabroek block, staving off intense Chinese competition. 👉 Interpretation of this news Here's an analysis of how these developments might influence the oil market Turkey Eyes Maritime Delimitation with Syria Key Details: Turkey plans to negotiate maritime boundaries with the new Syrian government led by al-Julani. The goal is to expand Turkey’s influence in Mediterranean energy exploration. Implications for Oil Prices: Energy Exploration Opportunities: If Turkey successfully delineates maritime boundaries, it could lead to new oil and gas exploration activities in the Mediterranean. This would increase the long-term potential for energy supply, but the impact on oil prices would be delayed and dependent on successful discoveries. Geopolitical Risk Premium: Tensions surrounding maritime boundaries in the Eastern Mediterranean have previously caused geopolitical disputes (e.g., with Greece and Cyprus). The potential for disputes with other nations in the region could add a slight risk premium to oil prices. No Immediate Impact: Since this development involves negotiations and potential future exploration, it does not have an immediate impact on oil supply or demand. US to Finance Guyana’s Gas Power Buildout Key Details: The US Export-Import Bank approved a $526 million loan for a 300 MW natural gas-fired power plant in Guyana. The plant will utilize ExxonMobil's associated gas from the Stabroek block, reducing flaring and tapping into a previously unused energy source. Implications for Oil Prices: Gas as an Alternative to Oil: Increased natural gas production in Guyana could slightly offset demand for oil in power generation over the long term. However, this is unlikely to significantly impact crude oil demand globally. US vs. China Competition: The US financing reinforces its influence in Guyana, securing a foothold in the resource-rich region. This limits China's involvement but doesn't directly impact oil prices. Neutral Impact on Crude Oil: Since this involves natural gas and not oil, the direct impact on crude prices is limited. However, the increased utilization of gas could eventually reduce the flare gas associated with oil production, slightly improving efficiency in Guyana's oil operations. Overall Impact on Oil Prices Bullish Factors: Potential geopolitical disputes from Turkey’s maritime moves could introduce a risk premium into oil prices. Long-term developments in Guyana's energy infrastructure reinforce stable energy supply, indirectly supporting efficient oil production. Neutral or Limited Impact: Both developments are longer-term in nature, with no immediate effect on crude oil supply or demand. The news leans more towards a neutral to slightly bullish influence on oil prices. Turkey’s maritime delimitation talks could introduce some geopolitical uncertainty in the Mediterranean, which may support a minor risk premium. However, neither of these developments directly counters or strongly amplifies your bullish oil signal, which remains supported by other recent market-moving news (e.g., Suez disruptions, Shell refinery shutdown). 3 Shell Shuts Singapore Refinery After Leak. UK-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) shut down one of its oil processing units at the 237,000 b/d Pulau Bukom refinery in Singapore after the nation’s Port Authority reported a leak of oil products together with the cooling water discharge. Mongolia Walks Back France Uranium Deal. The government of Mongolia has retracted the announcement of reaching a $1.6 billion deal with France’s uranium mining giant Orano, marking another odd roadblock on the way towards launching the Zuuvch Ovoo mine, in development since 2013. 👉I nterpretation of this oil trading news: Here’s how these developments could impact the oil market and your bullish signal on oil prices: Shell Shuts Singapore Refinery After Leak Key Details: Shell has shut down an oil processing unit at the Pulau Bukom refinery (237,000 barrels per day capacity). The shutdown was caused by a leak reported alongside cooling water discharge. Implications for Oil Prices: Tightened Refining Capacity: With one of Asia’s major refining facilities partially offline, there will be reduced supply of refined products like gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel in the region. This could support higher refined product prices, indirectly boosting crude oil demand as refineries aim to maintain supply levels. Short-Term Supply Disruption: Depending on the duration of the shutdown, the disruption could lead to localized supply shortages and increased imports to meet demand, which is bullish for oil prices. Environmental and Regulatory Fallout: If the shutdown is prolonged due to environmental regulations or extensive repairs, the market could factor in sustained supply tightness. 2. Mongolia Walks Back France Uranium Deal Key Details: Mongolia has retracted its announcement of a $1.6 billion deal with France’s Orano for developing the Zuuvch Ovoo uranium mine. The project, in development since 2013, faces yet another delay. Implications for Oil Prices: Energy Diversification Delays: Delays in uranium mining projects hinder the global transition to nuclear energy, which is seen as a long-term competitor to oil and gas. This keeps oil demand relatively higher in the medium term. Market Sentiment: Although this news doesn't directly affect oil supply or demand in the short term, it underscores uncertainties in alternative energy projects, potentially reinforcing the importance of fossil fuels for global energy security. Overall Impact on Oil Prices Bullish Factors: The Shell refinery shutdown could tighten regional supply and indirectly boost crude oil demand to support refining operations. Mongolia's uranium deal setback highlights delays in alternative energy development, indirectly supporting continued oil reliance. Neutral or Limited Impact: The uranium deal issue has no immediate bearing on oil markets but contributes to long-term energy security discussions. Conclusion The Shell refinery shutdown aligns well with bullish signal, as it adds a layer of supply disruption to the oil market. While the Mongolia news has less immediate impact, it reflects ongoing challenges in energy diversification, subtly reinforcing oil's role in the energy mix. Together, these developments lean towards a supportive outlook for higher oil prices in the short term. 4 All these news matter: While we got early bullish signals during the last days,now more news are released.Houthi Warfare Drains Egypt Suez Revenue. Egypt reported that its Suez Canal revenues have plunged by 60% year-over-year in 2024 as Houthi maritime warfare cost the North African country at least $7 billion, worsening Cairo’s plight as the Egyptian pound slid to a record low over the past month. Libya’s Two Governments to End Fuel Subsidies. Libya’s Benghazi government agreed to a proposal from the rival Tripoli government to end fuel subsidies in the war-torn country, with gasoline prices remaining artificially low at $0.11 per gallon, the second-cheapest in the world. Interpretation of oil trading news today: Here’s how the two developments could influence the oil market, particularly in light of your bullish signal on oil prices: Houthi Warfare Drains Egypt Suez Revenue Key Details: Suez Canal revenues are down 60% year-over-year due to Houthi maritime attacks. Losses of $7 billion exacerbate Egypt’s economic woes amid a record low for the Egyptian pound. Implications for Oil Prices: Supply Chain Disruption: The Suez Canal is a critical chokepoint for global oil and gas shipments. If Houthi attacks escalate or disrupt transit, it could delay shipments and increase transportation costs, creating upward pressure on oil prices. Risk Premium: Geopolitical instability in the region adds a risk premium to oil prices, as traders factor in potential disruptions. Currency Devaluation Impact: The weakening Egyptian pound might not directly influence oil prices, but it reflects economic instability that could worsen if the Suez remains compromised. Libya’s Two Governments to End Fuel Subsidies Key Details: Rival governments in Libya are cooperating to end fuel subsidies. Gasoline prices, currently at $0.11 per gallon (among the cheapest globally), are set to rise. Implications for Oil Prices: Higher Domestic Costs: Removing subsidies could reduce Libya’s domestic fuel consumption, leaving more oil and refined products for export. Market Balance: Increased exports from Libya could counteract some supply tightness caused by other factors, potentially capping oil price increases. Political Stability: This rare cooperation between Libya’s rival governments could indicate improving governance, which might increase Libya’s crude production and exports in the long term. This could have a bearish effect on oil prices if the market views it as a stabilizing factor. Overall Impact on Oil Prices Bullish Factors: Suez Canal disruptions and geopolitical instability add to the risk premium on oil. Supply chain concerns may tighten market sentiment. Bearish or Neutralizing Factors: Libya’s subsidy removal could lead to increased exports, easing supply pressures. What to Watch For: Suez Canal Traffic: Any further disruptions or escalations in Houthi maritime warfare could amplify bullish momentum in oil prices. Libya’s Export Trends: Monitor whether Libya increases its crude oil and product exports following the subsidy removal. In summary, the Suez Canal situation supports the bullish signal you've received, as it poses a significant risk to global oil logistics. Libya’s subsidy removal might introduce a balancing effect but seems less likely to fully offset the bullish momentum from Middle East instability. More Tensions in the middle east in 2025 building Under Pressure, Iraq to Cut Gas Flaring. Amidst reports that Donald Trump might sanction Iraq’s imports of Iranian natural gas, Baghdad promised to cut flaring volumes by around 20% next year to meet rising demand, expecting to capture more than 85% of associated natural gas production. Finland Seizes Suspicious Russian Tanker. Finland’s coast guard has boarded and seized the Eagle S tanker carrying Russian oil in the Baltic Sea on suspicion of having caused an outage of an undersea electricity cable connecting Finland and Estonia, investigating potential sabotage. Beijing Issues 2025 Product Export Quotas. China’s Ministry of Commerce issued the first batch of refined product quotas for next year totaling 19 million tonnes, unchanged year-over-year, with recent changes to the country’s 13% export tax rebate making gasoline and diesel exports sub-commercial. The news from Beijing about product export quotas and the export tax rebate has several potential implications for the oil market, particularly refined products like gasoline and diesel, which could indirectly influence crude oil prices. Here's a breakdown: Key Points: Unchanged Export Quotas (19 Million Tonnes): The quota is the same as last year, suggesting that China isn't planning a significant increase or decrease in refined product exports. A stable quota means China's refining capacity and crude oil import needs might not shift drastically in the near term. Export Tax Rebate Adjustment: China's 13% export tax rebate on refined products like gasoline and diesel has been adjusted, making exports less profitable or even "sub-commercial" (not economically viable). This discourages the export of refined products, potentially keeping more supply within China for domestic consumption. Implications for Oil Prices: Domestic Market Focus: If China prioritizes domestic consumption over exports, its domestic demand for crude oil (used to produce refined products) might stay strong. This can be bullish for crude oil prices as China's overall demand remains a key driver. Global Supply Dynamics: Reduced exports of gasoline and diesel from China could tighten global supply of these refined products, potentially driving up their prices. Higher refined product prices could encourage refineries worldwide to increase crude oil processing, boosting crude oil demand. Market Sentiment: The market might interpret this as a sign of strong domestic demand in China, which is generally positive for oil prices. However, if global economic concerns dominate, the muted export quotas might limit the bullish effect. Oil Price Volatility: Oil prices could see short-term bullish momentum due to perceived demand strength and tighter refined product supply globally. Traders might also be cautious, monitoring other factors like global economic data, OPEC+ decisions, and geopolitical tensions. Conclusion: This news leans slightly bullish for crude oil, as it signals steady domestic demand in China and potentially tighter global supply for refined products. However, how oil prices react depends on broader market sentiment and other macroeconomic factors. Since you've received a bullish signal on oil, the news could support the signal, but always keep an eye on additional developments and technical confirmations in the market.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by DaveBrascoFX
GULFOILLUB SHARE A good description for a **GulfOilLub share** (presumably referring to shares of a company in the Gulf Oil Lubricants sector) would include details about the company’s business, its market position, financial performance, and outlook. Here’s an example of what a well-rounded description might look like: --- **GulfOilLub Share – Company Overview** **GulfOilLub** is a leading player in the oil and lubricants industry, with a strong presence in the Gulf region and international markets. Specializing in high-performance lubricants, oils, and greases, the company serves a diverse range of industries including automotive, industrial, marine, and aviation. Known for its innovation and commitment to quality, GulfOilLub has built a robust reputation for providing reliable and environmentally-friendly products that meet the highest standards. **Market Position** With decades of experience in the sector, GulfOilLub holds a significant share of the regional lubricants market and has expanded its global footprint. The company is recognized for its comprehensive product range, superior customer service, and sustainability initiatives. **Financial Performance** GulfOilLub has demonstrated steady financial growth, driven by both regional demand and global expansion efforts. With strong revenue growth, improved profitability, and effective cost management strategies, GulfOilLub is poised to benefit from continued demand in both traditional and emerging markets. **Investment Potential** For investors, GulfOilLub offers an attractive proposition due to its consistent performance and the long-term growth potential of the lubricants and oil industry, particularly in the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions. The company’s ongoing investments in research and development (R&D), as well as its strategic partnerships, position it well for future growth. Its strong cash flow, dividend history, and commitment to sustainability make it a reliable stock for long-term investors. **Key Highlights:** - Leading oil and lubricants manufacturer with a strong regional and international presence. - Focus on innovation and sustainability in product offerings. - Strong financial track record with consistent growth in revenue and profit. - Positioned to capitalize on growth in the automotive and industrial sectors. - Committed to long-term value creation for shareholders. --- This description can be tailored further based on specific details about GulfOilLub, such as market data or recent news about the company. If you meant a different type of product or company, feel free to clarify!
NSE:GULFOILLUBLong
by rohitvishwakarma9669
WTI CRUDE OIL: Bullish fractal from 2023 targets $78.50.WTI Crude Oil is neutral on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 51.153, MACD = 0.060, ADX = 20.101) as it is trading around its 1D MA50 but at the same time remains supported on the S1 Zone. In the meantime the 1D RSI is rising on HL, which is a bullish divergence. This set of dynamics are identical to March-June 2023, when WTI was contained over the S1 Zone but the RSI was pointing to a bullish divergence that eventually caused a bullish breakout. Consequently, we are bullish now, aiming again at the R1 level (TP = 78.50). ## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ## ## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
TVC:USOILLong
by InvestingScope
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