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Long WTI & Short Brent as price differential tightens?Oil Brent continues to trade at a premium of more than $8 per barrel to WTI oil , with the price difference between the two oil benchmarks increasing significantly and well above its historical average this year. One of the primary drivers of the widening Brent/WTI price spread has been a significant increase in the availability of North American crude, which has created more downward price pressure on the WTI market. The US government has injected180 million barrels of crude into the market through scheduled Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases as of October 18, 2022, to help resolve the market supply disruption created by Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine and to help cut energy costs. U.S. SPR releases are now complete, and crude oil reserves in the United States are at their lowest point since 1983, according to the latest estimates from EIA. The possibility that the Democrats would suffer a loss in the midterm elections in two weeks might rule out the possibility of more SPR releases being made at a later stage. In this scenario, the forces that pushed the price of WTI below that of Brent would diminish significantly. As a result, the price spread between the two oil benchmarks may return to tighter levels. Going long on WTI and short on Brent is one way to reflect the idea of closing this oil price gap. Throughout 2021, the difference between WTI and Brent was on average about -$2/bbl and ranged from -$4.5/bbl to parity levels. A mean reversion to the period prior to US SPR releases would suggest an increase from current prices of about $6.5/bbl. If, on the other side, the spread widens again and breaks through the -$10/bbl threshold, the strategy will be proven incorrect.
NYMEX:CL1!
by Capitalcom
10
XTIUSD...BUY (3.88%)Entry: 84.900 TP: 88.000 SL: 83.620 Weekly TF: On the weekly TF, XTIUSD needs to bounce back and form a H&S...with Oil moving to $62.5 per barrel. According to my fibo mark; market entry at $89 has been in place...but NB: (market can move to that region for the second time before selling to $70.687 and $63.440 per barrel). Daily TF: There's a possibility that, if a barrel of Oil breaks above $88.010 and ignores the weekly fibo entry at $89, the $97 dollar price per barrel would be achieved and hence a strong sell to $63 per barrel. 4H TF: Expecting a market correction on the triangle formed between 14th and 19th October. During the NY session on 19th October, there was a breakout on the 4H candle. This guides the market sentiment for a buy clause activaion to fill the spots in the triangle's formation. 2H TF: EMA 8 and 50, guides the 2H candle for a perfect entry at $84.930 for a bull run. XTIUSd is currently in the rejection zone after taking some demand around 483 per barrel (Yellow Box), we see a clear rejection at the demand zone as shown above. 1H TF: my execution on XTIUSD
XLong
by DAdepa
USOIL - WTI Crude Oil - 1Y Chart ReviewToday you can review the technical analysis idea on a 1Y linear scale chart for WTI Crude Oil (USOIL). The chart shows the price has been moving in a descending channel with the current year (2022) looking similar to 2008. Using the Fibonacci Retracement tool, I estimated the price reviewing the next 6 years showing similarities to the price from 2008-2014. It's important to keep in mind that MACD possible bullish cross may be coming next year as well as upward momentum in the Stochastic RSI. RSI also has room for growth. Prior to the price moving higher, I believe that the price will come down lower sometime next year before moving higher very quickly. This may fall in line with the "recession" and economic challenges the global economy is facing. As always, this is a prediction with a great deal of possibilities to come as well as my opinions and knowledge included in the chart. Anything is likely at this point! If you enjoy my ideas, feel free to like it and drop in a comment. I love reading your comments below. Disclosure: This is just my opinion and not any type of financial advice. I enjoy charting and discussing technical analysis. Don't trade based on my advice. Do your own research! #millionaireeconomics
TVC:USOIL
by MillionaireEconomics
USOIL looking up 🦐USOIL on the 4h chart is trading within a descending channel. After the recent low the market is retesting the previous support now turned resistance. According to Plancrton's strategy IF the market will break the confluence area i will set a nice long order according to the Plancton strategy rules -–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
TVC:USOIL
by InkyGrip
2
Crude oil Short Term BearishThe idea here is about crude oil. I am short term bearish on crude oil due to following observation. 1. Cypher harmonic pattern completed on daily chart. The Cypher harmonic pattern is a technical analysis formation indicating a price-action reversal. The Cypher pattern, which can be either bullish or bearish, has five points (X, A, B, C, and D) and four legs (XA, AB, BC, and CD). Like any other harmonic pattern, the theory behind the Cypher chart pattern is that there is a strong correlation between Fibonacci ratios and price movements. The Cypher harmonic pattern has been historically proven to be a fairly reliable and accurate chart pattern. According to various studies, the pattern has an accuracy rate of around 70%. 2.Stochastic Oscillator The intersection of two lines is considered to be a signal that a reversal may be in the works, as it indicates a large shift in momentum from day to day. 3.Bollinger Bands 20 day moving average, bands at 2 standard deviations Looking at the lower band for profit target. 4.On-balance volume (OBV) OBV shows crowd sentiment that can predict a bullish or bearish outcome. OBV is on continuous decline. Last but not least 5. MA 200 over 50 aka Death cross 02 September 2022. The price was $95.23 Previous cross happened on 02 September 2020 MA 50 over 200 aka Golden cross The price was $41.40 I am aware that it is little late for the analysis, but i feel there is more to come. That's what they say "Something is better than nothing". Looking forward... The above is an Educational idea only and not any kind of financial or investment advice. So please do your own DD (Due Diligence) before any kind of investment. Do leave your valuable feedback & comments for any improvisations.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_CRUDEShort
by ShoibShafi