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Crude Oil since the US Presidential Election vs UkraineJust a commentary about President Biden's Press Secretary saying that the Ukraine situation has caused oil prices to be elevated. The advance from the lockdown/reopening may have been a much more important factor in the current market price. The fear that investments in new oil refining wouldn't generate a return with an administration vehemently against oil has prevented projects from getting funded. Projects have a long time line from start to finish, measured in years. The price had tumbled to generational buy levels in the wake of the Covid Lockdown response and economic stagnation in 2020-2021. So the natural rebound would have taken us back to this level anyway. It's an interesting picture to see how the market moved versus how people are saying the market has moved. IF the price goes back UNDER the Ukraine level of February 24th, then you can rightly assume that a large correction and wipe-out of speculators is underway. The idea of this chart is that NEWS is important to graph so you can see the level where it happened. That NEWS level will be key on any future revisits to that level. It is the foundational idea behind "Key Hidden Levels" where we graph the Earnings Day on our charts to help us define low risk, high reward potential trade setups. Tim 9:52AM EDT May 19, 2022
NYMEX:CL2!
by timwest
6
Buy Oil WTI - IMO should bounce on this L/T +++ Ascending Trend line Line - L/T Technical support from March 2020 lows. Using a weekly candle chart, Crude right on an upward trend line testing, using the March 2020 low. Crude should bounce from here current level having been tough to break over the last 2 years. Unless we are about to live a historical correction moment on Oil (liquidation/ news flow / Itan) the current price action set up is favouring longs here. As an aside we are also reaching a 50% retardement Fibonacci ratio level taking High 2022/ March 2020 Low. NYMEX:CL1!
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by ArisopeCapital
OIL Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September OIL Weekly Volatility Forecast 26-30 September Currently our volatility for OIL is at 6.6%, increasing from 4.7% last week, located on 100th percentile, placing us in a THE HIGHEST volatility environment Based on the previous calculations, there is currently a 15.5% chance that the asset is going to break the channel(the weekly candle it will close above/below) TOP 83 BOT 75.5 At the same time, based on the previous calculations: - There is a 30% chance that the previous high from last week of 86.6 is going to be touched - There is a 70% chance that the previous low from last week 78.02 is going to be touched(at the moment of the writing was already touched) We can deduct that we have a much higher probability to have a continuation of bearish candle than bullish. On average the weekly candle when the asset was located around this percentile are 4.5% for bull candles and 5.1% for the bear candles from the opening price. From the fundamental point of view, news that can affect this asset price this week: - Core Durable release, CB Consumer confidence and Powell Speech for Tuesday 27 Sep - Powell Speech for Wednesday 28 Sep - US GDP coming on Thursday 29 Sep Overall I believe for this week there is higher chance due to the overall global activity to have another bearish weekly candle.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by exlux
⚫️USOIL remains bearish. Looking for continuation.⚫️ 📉 Text marks: 🔹 IL = impulse leg. Inside of IL we can usually see inside structure, which is secondary in nature, like a market noise, unless you trade it on LTF, as it’s own IL. 🔹 ph, pl = protected high or low, which holds current structural impulse. 🔹 bos = break of structure . Based on candle body close below/above previous structural impulse. 🔹 rsz, rdz = refined supply and demand zones. Specific areas to look for LTF confirmations. They are manipulative up-moves before real down moves, or vice versa. Strong hands (the Composite Man, as Wyckoff called it) often come back to such zones to close their manipulative orders at breakeven, before pushing prices further. If body closes outside of the zone, in most cases it will mean the cancellation of the setup. 🔹 if ltf confirms = entry only if there's a shift of structure on lower TF inside of rsz or rdz, or any other type of backtested and approved confirmation. 🔹 liq target = liquidity target: next profit taking levels for strong hands, our main targets based on current price action. ☝️Disclaimer: ALL ideas here are for EDUCATIONAL and MARKETING purposes only, not a financial advice, NOT A SIGNAL. I share my view on the market and search for like-minded traders. YOUR TRADES ARE YOUR COMPLETE RESPONSIBILITY. Everything here should be treated as trading in a simulated environment. 👉I believe that "right or wrong" mentality is a fundamental flaw of any beginner. In reality, a trader is right only when he executes the system and follows his rules, and he's wrong only when he's taking random setups. A trader should find a system he's willing to work with long-term, hindsight test, backtest and then execute live, then refine until perfection. 🚀Thanks for your BOOSTS and support🚀 💬Send your comments and questions below, share your ideas and charts, I'll be glad to talk to you💬
TVC:USOILShort
by Yelli_trades
20
Crude selling off this morning, shall we get long again?Crude having a decent pullback this AM, I am staying patient until at least the GP retracement from the local low to local high. If it isn't showing strength there I will wait to see how the orange trendline and/or the green parallel channel reacts. If we get a bounce off of one of those three levels I am expecting a rally back to the red parallel channel, this will be an important take profit zone. I will then hold a portion of my position for the trend reversal confirmation just under the short arrow . I will take the rest off there and maybe even enter a short at that point. For me to enter a short, the price can not confirm above the red parallel channel and the oscillators must show a strong bearish divergence. I will update this post or write a new post once we reach my key short level. Good luck!
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by farmtrader15
3
Visualising victory for Ukraine and the oil pricesBack in February, when Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine, a victory for Kyiv would have been almost impossible to imagine. It's the classic David and Goliath. Recent developments on the battlefront, however, are starting to paint a different picture, showing the possibility of Ukraine ending the conflict with a win. On paper, the war is just between Ukraine and Russia. Its implications, on the other hand, knew no bounds and it demanded to be felt across the globe bringing about economic uncertainties and causing supply chain disruptions. While it did not start the energy crisis, the invasion surely made the situation worse. Nearly seven months into the war, people are hoping it will be over soon. Along with these hopes is the dream that the underdog (and innocent party) will claim the victory. Win for Ukraine Earlier in September, Ukrainian forces managed to recapture swaths of lands in the country's northeast that a few months earlier have been taken over by Russia. Considering this and the possibility that China's tacit support for Russia could be waning, it seems like momentum is on the side of Ukraine. If that indeed happens, it could mean good things not just for Ukraine but probably for the rest of Europe. Orysia Lutsevych, in an opinion piece for The Guardian, wrote that a victory for Ukraine is vital for Europe to be able to live in peace and work collectively to meet global challenges. Considering the support that a majority of the remainder of Europe and countries in other parts of the world have thrown behind Ukraine, defeat would further entice Russia to flout international law and the sovereignty of other nations. "The restoration of Ukrainian territorial integrity and, ultimately, peace will mean the collapse of Putinism as a doctrine and an end to Russian claims to territorial dominance elsewhere in eastern Europe and Central Asia," Lutsevych added. On the other hand, a victory for Russia would validate the country's aggressiveness and fuel its desire to further expand its territory. Russia uses newly conquered territories to stage further conflicts and a Ukraine victory would prevent that from happening. Aside from preventing future wars, a victory for Ukraine is also expected to reduce the risk of a mass famine and even restore the stability of economies that have been affected by the sanctions imposed on Russia for instigating the conflict. What happens to oil when Ukraine wins the war? When the war started, the price of oil surged past the $130 per barrel mark for the first time since 2008. The Brent benchmark neared the record high of $147 in March exacerbated by the conflict. Almost seven months into the war, the prices of oil somehow stabilized and is now at ~$90 per barrel for Brent crude as concerns about weaker economic growth and demand drag prices down. European countries have also been forced to impose price caps on electricity and oil and come up with new taxes for energy companies in order to support their people amid the ongoing energy crisis in the region. Many countries have also started finding alternative energy sources to compensate for the supply cut off from Russia. Russia has been using the energy crisis as another ploy in its grand battle scheme. Earlier in September, Vladimir Putin said: "We will not supply anything at all if it is contrary to our interests. No gas, no oil, no coal, no fuel oil, nothing." The potential impacts to the energy market of a Ukraine victory would depend on how Russia will take its defeat. Will it be a gracious loser and choose to capitalize on rebuilding bridges with countries that have been beneficiaries of its supply or a petty loser that will continue to lock in supply for it to use and to sell to select buyers who are probably allies and supporters?
BLACKBULL:BRENT
by BlackBull_Markets
USOIL for a lower low? 🦐USOIL on the 4h chart after the break below the important monthly support retested the structure at the 0.5 Fibonacci level. The price is trading below a 4h structure and IF the market will break below i will be looking for. a nice short order according to the Plancton's strategy rules, -–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
TVC:USOILShort
by InkyGrip
10
USOIL | Price Is Falling Despite The Energy CrisisUSOIL | Price Is Falling Despite The Energy Crisis It is strange that despite the energy crisis that all the countries are facing and the high inflation the USOIL is still very strong. It looks like it is moving down to the previous price levels close to $60 on the bigger picture. The market is still speculating a lot about the problem that with the economic recession the OIL price should decrease However, never knows what really is happening after the USOIL considering that it has been all the time on the opposite direction with the fundamental perspective. Thank you and Good Luck!
TVC:USOILShort
by KlejdiCuni
15
USOIL for a lower low 🦐USOIL on the 4h chart after the break below the important monthly support retested the structure and exactly the 0.618 Fibonacci level. The price is trading above a 4h structure and IF the market will break below i will be looking for. a nice short order according to the Plancton's strategy rules, -–– Follow the Shrimp 🦐 Keep in mind. 🟣 Purple structure -> Monthly structure. 🔴 Red structure -> Weekly structure. 🔵 Blue structure -> Daily structure. 🟡 Yellow structure -> 4h structure. ⚫️ Black structure -> <4h structure. Here is the Plancton0618 technical analysis , please comment below if you have any question. The ENTRY in the market will be taken only if the condition of the Plancton0618 strategy will trigger.
TVC:USOILShort
by InkyGrip