Oiltrading
WTIOil in a bit of trouble here, likely entering a 6-10 month bear market correction. Downside target can hit the 618% of the entire 5 moves off the 2020 lows when WTI went negative.
Currently a lower time frame A wave has bounced off the 618% fib retracement level of the 5th wave. But we must correct that entire 5 up not just the 5th wave. We should bounce into a B wave soon on the daily
before making the larger C wave down close to $80. After that The HTF weekly A wave is complete and bounce again into HTF weekly B wave before finally nuking to $50 wave C to complete the entire move. You better BTFD IMHO guys because after this is done oil prices likely to run back turbo over $130.
Bitcoin to Crude ratioI think about the ratio in terms of miner stress; for instance with the defi summer rally the oil denominated chart showed that (in oil terms) BTC was already coming into ATHs at ~10kUSD. I.e. input costs were accounting for roughly the same percentage of production for miners while the Fiat price they can realize on that stock was half as much. You can tease out analogous signal from the ATH lower high/ bear div from this cycle.
Oil futures return to pre-war levelsEUR/USD 🔼
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WTI 🔽
Months of almost unstoppable oil bulls have returned to the starting line, and both Brent and WTI oil futures prices have returned to levels not seen since the Russian invasion of Ukraine, with WTI oil futures closing at $88.54 a barrel. Recession fears have weakened manufacturing data, and as the US summer driving season will end by September, lackluster global oil demand sends prices downward.
The loonie was dragged by the falling oil prices, USD/CAD got to 1.2864 and kept climbing, currently trading at 1.2875. New American and Canadian employment data will be available tonight, forecasts set the US unemployment to remain at 3.6%, while the benchmark nonfarm payrolls in July added 290,000 jobs - dropping from 372,000 in June.
As another central bank that has announced a 50 bps rate hike, the Bank of England also aligned with market estimates. Although the decision was the most aggressive since 1995, the central bank claims further actions are required to address the soaring inflation. The GBP/USD pair briefly went below 1.2070, but soon recovered to a closing price of 1.2157 with minor gains. AUD/USD rose above the fluctuations, gaining over 20 pips to 0.6968.
After slowing at the 1.0250 level, EUR/USD was last traded at 1.0243. Gold futures reached a monthly high at $1,806.9 an ounce.
More information on Mitrade website.
Oil looks like it wants to go back to $62While I'm not big on trendlines, there is one that has clearly been defining Oil's bullish structure. Once that line breaks, I see a quick path back to $62 as the first support lower.
It might take some time to play out because Oil is oversold on low timeframes, but watch for this line to break as it'll make a great short over the coming weeks/months.
oil is going to ready to jump oil is ready to complete terminal as c in last lag of flat in d lag of big triangle
buy opportunity in 80-83 dollar for 140 dollar at least
BRENT OIL - HERE WHAT I SEEIn my previous brent oil analysis, I stated that macd was giving a selling signal on weekly chart.
Then sales accelerated. This is what i see now.
* None of what i write here is not an investment advice. Please do your own research before investing in any asset.
* Never take my personal opinions as investment advice, you may lose your money.
* The purpose of my graphic drawings is purely educational.
Oil back at key support who will win this battle?Hi all, thanks for checking in for Wednesday's video analysis on oil.
Once again, we find ourselves back at key support. This level has stood since March, and till today sellers haven't been able to break through this level. For the last two sessions, sellers have tried and failed at breaking $95.20 support, but the question now is, do buyers still have the numbers to defend a new assault?
Monday saw a strong move down by sellers, but they continue to be blocked at support. Things above are not much clearer as resistance continues to look firm from $101-$102.
Our question today is will we see a new break lower or will support hold, and with price now starting to be squeezed, could this become a defining point that continues the current downtrend or sprouts a new reversal?
One thing I didn't cover in today's video is the danger of breakout selling at this point. The current point looks as good as any for a bear trap after a false breakout out lower, as we have already seen one in July.
Regardless of the breakout direction, we see it might be a good idea to wait for a new LH or HL to gauge that the move is valid and won't get sucked back into the range.
Thanks for watching and reading. We hope you enjoy the rest of your day.
Good trading
Gas futures down 7 of the last 9 weeksFirst of all, I used to always use CL1 as my main source of oil & energy. That measures Crude Oil futures. I think now is also an important reminder about the differences between Crude Oil futures and Gasoline Futures.
Before I really get started, let me say I am a big believer in new energy sources. I just don't think it makes sense to dig something up from the ground, burn it once, and then it's gone forever. Especially when it's possible to find sources of energy that are continually producing, no questions asks, no input or output required, just going at all times. The sun is one example.
Anyways, let's get back to the chart above that RB Gasoline Futures. This means reformulated gasoline, which is a cleaner type of fuel that is used in most cars and automobiles. So the chart is interesting because you can get feel for the price of gas, the cost to fill up a car, at any given moment. However, keep in mind that gasoline futures involve the delivery of 42,000 gallons of gasoline per contract. That's a lot! I don't know many traders who have enough space to store 42,000 gallons of gasoline. That's true for all futures contracts... they are huge quantities.
So if you look at RB1! you will see an interesting double bottom. That looks playable. But then again, 42,000 gallons per contract. Oil is coming on globally, cars are getting more efficient, and new energy sources are emerging.
My takeaway from all of this simple: a tradeable bounce is here. Quick swing trade. But I am not so sure that bounce will blast off quickly to the moon.
So this entire chart and energy market is in a strange situation. Did the bull rally come and go that fast? More importantly, what does that mean for all other markets from stocks to crypto?
I would add this chart to your Watchlist...
ULSD / Diesel Fuel LongThis analysis is contingent on data that cannot be cited due to the source's explicit restrictions placed on republishing without expressed written consent.
ULSD is of particular interest in the energy markets for the following reasons:
• It is quoted based on delivery at New York Harbor. This means that it has localized supply / demand factors related to the Eastern United states. Data shows supply is particularly tight at this location.
• Traders are exporting virtually all US oil overseas due to the spread between WTI and Brent
• No tankers set to deliver low sulfur distillates to New York Harbor for over a month.
On top of these factor, there's a clear support zone at the current price. Given that simple technicals are lining up with fundamentals, the trade seems favorable. Major risk factors include OPEC+ meeting, however I speculate that OPEC will not increase supply due to negative data regarding oil consumption.
Oil price swayed by OPEC meeting and weak Chinese PMIEUR/USD 🔼
GBP/USD 🔼
AUD/USD 🔼
USD/CAD 🔽
XAU 🔼
WTI 🔼
Last week saw WTI crude oil futures climbing to $101.58 a barrel, but a disappointing Chinese PMI reading and a possible OPEC production boost brought prices down to $98.62, now dwelling at $97 territory.
US dollar and treasury yields both dropped as recession sentiment was intensified by another negative US GDP growth, USD/CAD slipped to 1.2793. Gold futures rode upon a weakened greenback to $1,781.8 an ounce, settling on the $1,780 level.
Greenback’s loss became stock’s gain, major indices have all gone up. Amazon surged 10.40% thanks to a stellar sales report, but Roku lost 23.07% of its stock value due to lackluster earnings that fell short of market estimates.
Meanwhile, major currencies rallied against the US dollar, and the GBP/USD pair further recovered to 1.2189. Aussie met resistance at 0.700, AUD/USD slightly moved up to 0.6985, and both central banks in Australia and Eurozone will announce their interest rate decision this week. Cheered by optimistic Eurozone and Germany GDP results, EUR/USD closed at 1.0226 with a 29-pip gain.
More information on Mitrade website.
NG Backwardation PlayClassic backwardation scenario, a textbook move. Major supply disruptions at Prelude floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) facility in Australia, Nord stream at 20% flow, and a lag between demand and LNG deliveries to Europe will likely drive prices higher, but we are betting on what we know, the difference between spot and the August contract. We can expect the future price, to converge towards the spot price, making this position a long.