#oil bearish outlookIt seems like the price has formed a 5-wave bullish impulsive move and could now begin its bearish move.
For the bearish move to be confirmed, we need to see the price breaking below the bullish channel line and also closing below the VWAP.
Bearish confirmations:
Bearish divergence in the 4H timeframe.
Completion of the 5-wave bullish impulsive move.
Momentum oscillator in overbought (OB) territory.
If you’ve found this analysis helpful, please take a moment to like, comment, or share your thoughts with me.
Oiltrading
Avoid FOMO of oil being bullish Until the price is below 7000 mark we cant say oil has turned bullish
there is volume imbalance and bearish fvg on daily time frame around 6887 to 6771
where there is high probability price to get reject
those who are in long trade before try to trail your stop
and those who are looking for fresh long AVOID !!
Weekend Wizardry On Crude OilRight now It makes no sense in my mind why the market would want to return to being bearish.
Yes we are in a premium and after a couple days of upwards movement there can be some stagnent action for traders who like to take more than 25-40 ticks ona single move.
So again why would market want to move lower on a htf bases as pointed in my arrows we have a Daily FVG whcih I will be watching price to respect and create a discount in that FVG
The wicks from Friday and Monday Daily chart show immediate rebalance and a propell higher is what I am looking for.
Given Monday can be opposing price to what Tues and Wed Provide... wink wink
Magnet shows my target for next week. to revisit this and whilst in fvg how do we close? Daily fvg CE?
I really do look at price on the day to day basis weekly targets yes but this is a subconscious thought when im trading pacific times of the day.
XTIUSD(WTI/US OIL): Next Target Is $94.00Dear Traders,
Hope you are well, we have an excellent buying opportunity coming up on Oil, price rejected at key level and since then it is bullish on daily timeframe, however, we have seen some bearish correction happening. We have identified a key level where 'imbalance' zone is there. In our analysis we think price will react from this level and move toward $90 and then $94.
Team Setupsfx_
Brent Crude Surges in June But Chart Pattern Raises ConcernsBrent Crude Surges in June as Inventory Draw Tightens Market, But Chart Pattern Raises Concerns
Brent crude oil prices experienced a significant rally in June 2024, rising 5% over the month. This increase adds to a positive trend for the year so far, with Brent crude accumulating a total gain of 12.85% year-to-date. However, a closer look at the price chart reveals a potential concern – the formation of a rising wedge pattern, which could indicate a reversal in the upward trend.
Understanding Brent Crude and Its Global Influence
Brent crude oil, extracted from the North Sea, is a light sweet crude oil variety. Widely traded across the globe, it serves as a benchmark for oil pricing, influencing other crudes like West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the US benchmark. Supply, demand, geopolitical tensions, and global economic health are all factors that impact Brent crude prices. In June 2024, a confluence of events pushed prices higher.
US Inventory Draw Tightens the Market
A key driver of the June price increase was a significant decline in US crude oil inventories. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported a drop of 2.55 million barrels. This decrease signifies that demand for crude oil is outpacing supply, a classic recipe for rising prices.
Several factors could explain the inventory decline. Economic growth can lead to increased energy consumption by businesses and consumers, driving up demand for crude oil. Geopolitical tensions can also disrupt oil supplies, further tightening available inventories.
OPEC+ Decision Adds Fuel to the Fire
Another factor influencing June's price increase was the decision by OPEC+, a group of oil-producing countries led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, to loosen production cuts. Implemented in April 2020 to support oil prices during the COVID-19 pandemic, these cuts were gradually lifted as the global economy recovered in 2024.
The OPEC+ decision was interpreted as a sign of a tightening oil market. With rising demand and only a gradual increase in production from OPEC+, concerns arose about potential future supply constraints. This concern played a role in pushing Brent crude prices higher in June.
The Rising Wedge: A Potential Threat to the Upward Trend?
While the June price increase paints a picture of a robust oil market, a technical analysis of the Brent crude price chart reveals a potentially bearish pattern – the rising wedge. This chart formation consists of two upward-sloping trendlines, with prices seemingly trapped within an expanding channel. While the price appears to be rising, the trendlines narrow as the pattern progresses, suggesting a potential loss of momentum.
A breakout from the rising wedge, particularly downwards, is often seen as a bearish signal, indicating a potential reversal in the price trend. This could lead to a decline in Brent crude prices in the coming months.
The Two-Sided Coin of Rising Oil Prices
Higher Brent crude prices have a double-edged impact on the global economy. On the one hand, consumers face the burden of rising gasoline prices, which can strain household budgets and impact businesses reliant on transportation. Additionally, higher oil prices translate to increased costs for transportation and other goods and services.
On the other hand, oil-producing countries benefit from the price hike. Increased revenue allows them to invest in infrastructure, social programs, and economic development initiatives.
The Road Ahead: Uncertainties and Opportunities
Predicting the future of oil prices is a complex task. Global economic growth, geopolitical tensions, and OPEC+ production decisions will all play a role. However, the June price increase and the formation of the rising wedge pattern highlight the dynamic nature of the oil market.
While the upward trend suggests continued price increases in the near term, the rising wedge pattern warrants caution. Investors and businesses involved in oil-dependent industries should closely monitor the price chart and economic factors to navigate the potential market shift.
Crude Oil Thursday Rumble...As we are in Bullish territory on the HTF the Daily FVG bellow is where I am anticipating price to retrace too leading upto 0930est... Does it have to retrace there? No.
However I am Looking at Bullish bias towards the Daily V.i Marked in the chart for a Target and Forecast going forward...
Pretty simple.
Gold Bull side 2340Hey there on 1hTF the Gold has looking for upwards from 2323
If breakout 2323 and continue moving downside then we can expect 2312
On Tuesday we had saw the 2306 and upside 2333
So we expect today above 2341
And the resistance level still 2360 so wait for the breakout sessions will be see today
Crude Turbo Tuesday'sYesterday we saw a nice bulish displacement and I would like price to stay above the 1hr FVG..
We can wick bellow on the 1hr but leading into CME open I would wait for bullish price to reach to the 80.00 level which is the Daily FVG..
Once we close inside the Daily FVG we can start looking at CE of it.
Oil Broader Support Market Optimism, Despite Lingering UncertainOil prices edged higher this week, marking their strongest gain in seven days. This upward momentum came despite a somewhat ambiguous outlook for crude itself, suggesting the driving force behind the rise lies elsewhere: positive sentiment in the broader financial markets.
Risk-On Rally Lifts Oil
The primary factor behind oil's recent rise is the prevailing "risk-on" sentiment dominating global markets. Equity indices, particularly in the United States, have been scaling new highs, with the S&P 500 reaching its 30th record this year. This optimism seems to be spilling over into the commodities market, including oil. Investors, buoyed by the positive performance in equities, are displaying a greater willingness to take on risk, and oil is seen as a potential beneficiary.
OPEC+ Cuts and Geopolitical Tensions Offer Underlying Support
Beyond the broader market sentiment, a couple of oil-specific factors are also contributing to the price increase. Firstly, the decision by OPEC+, the world's leading oil producer alliance, to extend production cuts has helped to tighten supply and prop up prices. Anxieties surrounding potential disruptions due to geopolitical tensions in major oil-producing regions like the Middle East are also lending some support.
Mixed Outlook for Crude: Demand Questions Linger
However, the outlook for crude remains somewhat clouded by uncertainties. While the supply side appears relatively stable thanks to OPEC+ intervention, demand remains a question mark. Signs of slowing economic growth in some parts of the world, particularly in Asia, raise concerns about future oil consumption. Data from China, a major consumer of oil, recently indicated weaker-than-expected industrial activity, potentially signaling a softening demand outlook. Additionally, rising gasoline prices in some regions, like India, could dampen consumer spending and lead to lower demand for fuel.
The Balancing Act: Weighing Optimism Against Uncertainty
The current situation presents a complex picture for oil markets. The positive sentiment in broader financial markets is providing a tailwind for oil prices. However, this is counterbalanced by lingering uncertainties about future demand, particularly in Asia. The net effect of these opposing forces will determine the future trajectory of oil prices.
Looking Ahead: Navigating a Volatile Market
Oil will likely see continued volatility in oil markets. Investors will be closely monitoring key factors like:
• Global economic performance: The health of major economies, particularly China, will significantly influence oil demand.
• Monetary policy decisions: Actions by central banks, especially the U.S. Federal Reserve, could impact risk appetite and indirectly affect oil prices.
• Geopolitical developments: Events in major oil-producing regions can disrupt supply and cause price spikes.
By carefully weighing these factors, market participants can navigate the current uncertainty and make informed decisions regarding oil investments.
intermediate trend is up but now trading in sidewayI've set up my TradingView chart for Crude Oil (WTI) in the 1-hour timeframe to understand the current market conditions and potential trading opportunities clearly.
1. Price Levels:
- Right now, the price of crude oil is around $78.217.
- I’ve marked key resistance levels at $80.278 and $79.988. These are the areas where I expect the price might face some selling pressure.
- On the downside, support levels are at $77.557 and $77.550, which could act as a floor if the price drops.
2. Trendlines:
- I’ve drawn a couple of diagonal trendlines that form a channel, showing the range within which the price has been bouncing around.
- These trendlines intersect at several points, which might signal potential breakouts or breakdowns.
3. Volume:
- The volume bars at the bottom are crucial. They show how much crude oil is being traded during each hour.
- Notice the spikes in volume during significant price moves—these often indicate strong market activity and can hint at future price directions.
4. Candlestick Patterns:
- I use candlestick patterns to track price action. Recently, the price has been consolidating around the $78.217 level, which suggests that the market is gathering momentum for a big move.
5. Supply and Demand Zones:
- The shaded areas highlight important supply and demand zones. These zones are where there has been significant buying or selling interest in the past.
- They help me identify potential reversal points and set my stop-loss and take-profit levels more accurately.
6. Support and Resistance Boxes:
- I’ve also drawn boxes around the main support and resistance levels to make them stand out.
- The upper box around $80.278 is a strong resistance zone, while the lower box near $77.550 is a key support area.
This setup helps me keep track of critical price levels and market behavior, making it easier to plan my trades. I rely heavily on these visual cues and patterns to anticipate where the market might head next.
Oil Price Find Footing as Inflation Cools, Russia Threatens CutThe global oil market witnessed a balancing act this week, with prices finding temporary stability despite conflicting forces. While data indicating a possible slowdown in US inflation offered some relief, Russia's vow to cut oil production cast a shadow of potential future price hikes.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures, the US benchmark, remained above $78 a barrel, clinging to the gains accrued throughout the week. This stability comes after a period of volatility, with oil prices having fluctuated significantly in recent months due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and concerns about global economic growth.
The US Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at their current level was the primary source of comfort for the market. This decision, coupled with recent signs of cooling inflation, suggests a potential shift in the Fed's monetary policy stance. Earlier concerns about aggressive interest rate hikes to combat inflation had dampened economic activity and raised fears of a recession, potentially leading to a decline in oil demand. The Fed's decision to pause on rate hikes, with the possibility of one cut later in the year, provided a sigh of relief for the oil market.
However, this cautious optimism was countered by Russia's announcement of a potential production cut. Russia, a major oil producer, has been a key player in the recent oil price volatility. The ongoing war in Ukraine has disrupted global oil supplies, and Russia has hinted at further reductions in output in retaliation for Western sanctions. This threat of a supply squeeze could push oil prices higher in the coming months, potentially negating the positive sentiment stemming from the Fed's decision.
Analysts remain divided on the long-term trajectory of oil prices. Some believe that a global economic slowdown, fueled by rising interest rates and ongoing geopolitical tensions, will eventually lead to a decrease in demand. This, coupled with a potential increase in oil production from other major producers like the US, could bring prices down.
However, others warn that the geopolitical risks remain significant. The war in Ukraine shows no signs of abating, and further disruptions to Russian oil exports could trigger another price surge. Additionally, the limited spare production capacity among major producers could make it difficult to compensate for any potential Russian output cuts.
The outlook for oil prices in the coming months is thus uncertain. While the Fed's decision and signs of cooling inflation offer some hope for stability, the threat of Russian production cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions continue to pose significant upside risks.
Looking beyond the immediate future, the long-term trend for oil prices will likely depend on the pace of the global energy transition. As countries around the world invest in renewable energy sources and push for decarbonization, the demand for oil is expected to decline over time. This could lead to a gradual decrease in oil prices in the long run. However, the transition away from fossil fuels is a complex process, and oil is likely to remain a critical source of energy for many years to come.
In conclusion, the global oil market is currently navigating a period of flux. While short-term factors like the Fed's monetary policy and potential Russian production cuts are influencing prices, the long-term trajectory remains uncertain and will depend heavily on the pace of the global energy transition. Consumers and businesses alike should brace for continued volatility in the oil market, with prices likely to remain sensitive to geopolitical developments and economic data releases.
USOIL SHORT
The price may rise to $82 but could also fall to about $70.
101.9 million barrels of oil will be consumed worldwide per day.
By next year, the oil markets appear to be oversupplied.
Highlights
Lower Russian output and more demand brought on by China's reopening could help oil prices.
Low demand and a bleak macroeconomic outlook for China
When the Energy Information Administration releases its inventory figures on Wednesday, more oil-related information will be available.
- ---------------
**First Scenario - Long:**
Initial Target: $80.90
Entry: $79.08
Stoploss: $77.47
**Second Scenario - Short:**
Initial Target: $74
Entry: $78.34
Stoploss: $79.2
- ---------------
After a long wait, I am currently waiting for this pair to give me my confirmation for a Short position (Data)
- ---------------
Take into consideration:
It appears that the market has settled in a range of $79.44 to $76.86, with the 7.68 retracement level above the latter being significant.
- ---------------
NFA
DYOR
- ---------------
Good Luck!
⚠️Caution: Just because I've set my buy and sell position Settings or drawn direction lines on my chart doesn't indicate I've opened a position or am obsessed with a particular bias. This is only a forecast; I don't trade when the price reaches my level; I have rules of engagement. Perhaps the most crucial element is 🆘RISK MANAGEMENT🆘.
WTI CRUDE OIL: Oversold offers a buy opportunity.WTI Crude Oil has turned oversold on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 29.383, MACD = -1.620, ADX = 31.641) as the price is approaching the bottom of the 2 month Channel Down. As long as it remains under the 1D MA50, the long term trend will be bearish but the oversold conditions and the 1D MACD, which is replicating the early December 2023 bottom pattern, call for a low risk short term buy opportunity. We are targeting the top of the Channel Down and no higher than the 0.382 Fibonacci level (TP = 76.00).
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
OPEC+ Lowers Its Sights: Farewell to $100 Oil?The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, collectively known as OPEC+, appear to be waving goodbye to their long-held pursuit of $100-a-barrel oil. This strategic shift marks a significant change for the oil cartel, which has traditionally aimed to manipulate production levels to influence global oil prices.
A New Reality Sets In
For years, OPEC+ has strived to maintain a $100 price tag for a barrel of crude. However, the rise of the American shale industry, a technological marvel that unlocked vast domestic oil reserves in the United States, threw a wrench into their plans. This newfound production glut significantly impacted OPEC+'s ability to control oil prices through production cuts.
In a recent meeting, OPEC+ acknowledged this new reality. Instead of clinging to the $100 dream, they announced a gradual increase in production quotas, likely leading to lower oil prices. This decision reflects a pragmatic approach to a market fundamentally changed by US shale production.
Pumping Now, Before the Window Closes
The decision to increase production can be seen as an opportunistic one. With global economies starting to recover from the pandemic and energy demand rising, OPEC+ sees a chance to capitalize on the current market conditions. By pumping more oil now, they can capture a larger share of the market before the shale boom potentially slows down.
However, there are also risks associated with this strategy. Flooding the market with additional crude could lead to a price drop, potentially hurting OPEC+ members' long-term revenue streams.
A Difficult Time for Saudi Arabia
The shift in strategy comes at a particularly challenging time for Saudi Arabia, the de facto leader of OPEC+. The kingdom faces ambitious spending plans to diversify its economy away from oil dependence. Lower oil prices could significantly hamper these efforts, putting a strain on Saudi Arabia's finances.
Uncertainties Remain
While the decision to increase production signifies a move away from the $100 target, the long-term implications remain unclear. The exact impact on oil prices will depend on various factors, including the pace of production increases, global economic growth, and the future trajectory of the US shale industry.
A Reshaped Oil Market
The OPEC+ decision marks a turning point in the global oil market. The era of OPEC+ wielding absolute control over oil prices seems to be over. The rise of US shale has created a new dynamic, forcing OPEC+ to adapt and adjust its strategies.
Looking Ahead
The oil market's future will likely be characterized by greater competition, with OPEC+ and US shale producers vying for market share. How this competition unfolds and how oil prices react will be a story to watch closely in the coming months and years.
Conclusion
OPEC+'s decision to increase oil production signifies a strategic shift away from their long-held pursuit of $100-a-barrel oil. While this move presents potential advantages, it also carries risks, particularly for Saudi Arabia. The future of the oil market remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: the landscape has been reshaped, and the era of OPEC+ dominance is fading.
Crude Oil - Turbo TuesdayWell yesterday all targets where hit and some!
Today we have more targets to meet and London has not dissapointed so far
NY we will see what happens but for now I have Monthly ssl and weekly CE of wick and the Daily SSL as 3 main draws that will act as Bearish Bias.
That is the Forecast!
OPEC+ Extends Production Cuts: A Calculated Volatile MoveThe recent OPEC+ meeting on June 2nd, 2024, resulted in a significant decision to extend production cuts. This move by the oil cartel, which includes major oil producers like Saudi Arabia and Russia, aims to navigate a complex economic climate and influence global oil prices.
Here's a breakdown of the key takeaways from the meeting:
• Extended Cuts of 3.66 Million Bpd Until December 2025: This is the most impactful decision. OPEC+ originally planned to ease these cuts by the end of 2024. However, extending them by a year indicates a commitment to controlling supply and potentially keeping oil prices elevated.
• Prolonged Cuts of 2.2 Million Bpd Until September 2024: These deeper cuts, initially set to expire in June 2024, have been extended for an additional three months. This further tightens the supply in the short term.
• Phased Out Production Cuts (2.2 Million Bpd) from October 2024 to September 2025: While extending cuts, OPEC+ has acknowledged the need for a gradual return to pre-cut production levels. This measured approach aims to prevent a price shock if all cuts were lifted abruptly.
Understanding the reasoning behind these decisions requires looking at the current oil market landscape. Several factors are likely influencing OPEC+'s strategy:
• Geopolitical Tensions: The ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to disrupt global energy supplies. This disruption, coupled with potential sanctions on Russian oil, has tightened supply and driven prices upwards. OPEC+ may be aiming to maintain a price floor by keeping production cuts in place.
• Post-Pandemic Recovery: The global economy is still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. While demand for oil is increasing, it hasn't fully reached pre-pandemic levels. OPEC+ might be cautious about increasing supply too quickly, fearing it could outpace demand and lead to a price slump.
• Shale Oil Production: The resurgence of shale oil production in the United States is a factor to consider. OPEC+ might be strategically keeping production cuts to maintain its market share and influence over global oil prices.
The decision to extend cuts is likely to have a domino effect:
• Impact on Oil Prices: Analysts predict that the production cut extensions will likely lead to a continued rise in oil prices. This could benefit oil-producing nations but put a strain on consumers and industries reliant on oil, potentially leading to higher transportation costs and production expenses.
• Global Economic Growth: Higher oil prices can dampen economic growth as consumer spending power decreases due to increased energy costs. This is a concern for countries already grappling with inflation.
• Shift Towards Renewables: OPEC+'s move to control supply could incentivize a faster transition towards renewable energy sources. Countries looking to lessen their dependence on volatile oil prices might accelerate investments in clean energy alternatives.
The future trajectory of the oil market remains uncertain. OPEC+'s decision to extend production cuts is a calculated move to navigate a complex economic climate. While it might benefit oil-producing nations in the short term, it could also have consequences for consumers and the global economic recovery. How this strategy unfolds and how the market reacts will be interesting to watch in the coming months.
Crude Monday Drab Bias and ForecastI am HTF bearish on Crude OiL
I have PD arrays marked out that should be respected if market was to retrace and take some BSL.
The targets for today are Lows marked out.
Pretty simple.
Stay bellow 1hr fvg and 1hr -OB = BEARISH
Close above the 1hr FVG start looking for short term BSL
WTI CRUDE OIL: Opportunities to profit sideways.WTI Crude Oil turned bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 39.681, MACD = -1.020, ADX = 30.568) but remains neutral on 1W (RSI = 46.231) as it is approaching again the 1W MA200. That is a critical Support as not only it is untouched since February 5th but is the long term level that Oil has been bouncing aggressively on since March 2023. We look towards a Rectangle consolidation-accumulation as the last two times that the 1W MA200 was tested. We will buy on S1 and target the R1 level (TP = 80.60). Until we close over the 1D MA50, our strategy is to scalp this range.
## If you like our free content follow our profile to get more daily ideas. ##
## Comments and likes are greatly appreciated. ##
Crude Oil / Brent Oil Robbery Plan in Bullish SideMy Dear Robbers / Traders,
This is our master plan to Heist Crude Oil based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level Police Force is waiting for our arrival, Market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan,
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money Use Trailing Stop To Protect Looted Money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order Block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target it will update after the Breakouts.
support our robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Join your hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday.