Friday is approaching the weekly close, with cautious profit-tak
According to the IEA's forecast, oil demand growth will decrease by 1 million barrels per day this year, to an estimated 1.3 million barrels per day. The IEA pointed out that factors such as the global economic slowdown, improved vehicle fuel efficiency and the increase in the number of electric vehicles will bring additional headwinds to oil use. In addition, the IEA has also lowered its supply forecast for 2024, predicting that oil supply this year will increase by 800,000 barrels per day to 102.9 million barrels per day. Continuous attacks by Ukrainian drones on Russian oil refining facilities caused refinery shutdowns, which in turn caused Russia's seaborne fuel exports to fall by 1.5% month-on-month in February. Separately, U.S. crude oil and gasoline inventories have fallen sharply, with gasoline prices at the pump expected to rise sharply in the coming weeks as widespread refinery shutdowns reduce supply ahead of the summer driving season. Although the IEA forecasts oil demand growth in 2024, it is still less optimistic than the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). OPEC kept its demand growth forecast unchanged this week, still nearly 1 million barrels per day behind the IEA. Shipping disruptions in the Red Sea have forced more trade to shift to longer routes, pushing the volume of oil at sea to nearly 1.9 billion barrels, the IEA said. Although some OPEC+ members have extended production cuts, the IEA predicts that oil supply growth from non-OPEC+ countries will continue to exceed demand expansion in 2024. The IEA said there will be a slight supply shortage this year, but tankers may see some relief as large volumes of offshore oil reach its final destination. However, dovish signals from central banks suggest that the economy is emerging from the downturn, but some major economic powers are still facing weak economic data. In addition, the sharp rise in the US dollar has also put pressure on crude oil prices. Economic downturns, a surge in the U.S. dollar, and long-term high interest rates will lead to reduced demand for crude oil.
Oil prices continued to rise on Thursday, hitting a nearly four-month high as the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecast a tighter market in 2024 and raised its view on oil demand growth this year. Considering the possibility of profit-taking on Friday today, do not pursue long positions directly. You can participate in long positions later after the correction of crude oil stabilizes.
