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Omicron

Dow jones analysis | 1D timeframe• The Dow Jones Industrial Average, like other indices, was under the influence of Omicron Fundamental Warning Funds as well as central bank interest rate adjustment policies, which are now recovering well. • But there is still a risk of strong Omicron virus in the market, and this can be seen from the weak trading volume at the time of recovery. Which will probably increase the price drop and further correction. • If the price can break the specified area upwards and stabilize, in the first month of 2022 we can see the price of $ 37,000 Dow Jones.
U
by Mahdishoghli
DAX analysis| 1D Timeframe• The Dex index, like other indices, was under the influence of the omicron warning fundamentals as well as the central bank interest rate change policies, which have already made a good recovery price. • But there is still a strong risk of Omicron virus in the market, and this can be seen from the low volume of price transactions at the time of recovery. Which will probably increase the price drop and further correction. • If the price can exceed 16050, we will see the continuation of the upward movement of this index to 16700.
OANDA:DE30EUR
by Mahdishoghli
Yen dips despite stronger JPY retail salesThe Japanese yen continues to lose ground. The yen suffered a third straight losing week, and the trend has continued on Monday. With USD/JPY currently trading around the 114.70 level, the 115 line is vulnerable. The pair last breached this symbolic level a month ago, but the dollar couldn't consolidate above this level. Japan's retail sales overperforms Christmas week started off on a positive note, as Japan Retail Sales for November posted a strong gain of 1.9% y/y, ahead of the consensus of 1.7% and above the 0.9% gain in October. Consumers were out in force as Covid-19 cases fell during November. Still, the Omicron variant has started to spread in Japan's major cities, leading to fears that the government could impose health restrictions or that consumers will stay at home to avoid contracting Omicron. Japan is set on spending its way to a stronger economy, and parliament approved a record 10.8 trillion yen budget on Friday, which includes payouts to households and businesses hit by Covid. Japan's economy is expected to roar back in Q4, with a consensus of 6.4% growth, after a contraction of -3.6% in the third quarter. Inflation is on the rise in Japan. In November, Core CPI rose 0.5% y/y, above the consensus of 0.4%. That might seem insignificant compared with inflation numbers in the UK and the United States, but given that inflation has been negligible for years in Japan, this is certainly a change in direction. The uptick in inflation will be welcome news at the Bank of Japan, and should ease policymakers' concerns about deflation. The bank's inflation target of 2% remains a long way off, but inflation could move higher if the Omicron does not derail economic activity. USD/JPY is putting pressure on resistance at 114.82. Above, there is resistance at 115.26 There is support at 113.65 and 112.90
by OANDA
Australian dollar trading sidewaysTis the week of Christmas, which means eggnog, crackling fireplaces and thin liquidity in the markets. With Australian markets closed on Monday, the Aussie has shown little movement today and this should continue in the North American session. There are no Australian events on this week's calendar, so any movement of AUD/USD will come from events abroad. The US has mostly tier-2 releases this week, so events in China may have a magnified impact on the Aussie. There were some positive developments on the weekend in China. The PBOC said it would provide more support for the economy. As well, there were media reports that Evergrande has resumed most its home construction projects. The mammoth company owes more than USD 300 billion in liabilities, and any news concerning Evergrande could have an impact on the Australian dollar, as China is Australia's largest trading partner. With a very light calendar, market participants will have some time to focus on the RBA, which has been in the headlines frequently in recent weeks and published the minutes of the December meeting just last week. The minutes were cautiously optimistic. with the bank saying that it did not expect the Omicron variant to derail the economic recovery. Still, the bank noted that Omicron "posed additional uncertainty for the near-term outlook." Given the disparity between RBA guidance and the markets' expectations for a rate hike, this language is a signal that the bank has no intention of raising interest rates anytime soon. The month of December is all about volatility, and the Australian dollar has already delivered on that front, with significant movement. Liquidity will be thin as we head towards the New Year, which could mean further volatility, especially if there are further developments surrounding Omicron, good or bad.   0.7288 has held in resistance since mid-November. The next resistance line is at 0.7354 There is support at 0.7119 and 0.7016
by OANDA
Could Omicron Cause USDJPY To Stall At 115.000 ?Its a thin trading week with no concrete markets drivers scheduled. With low liquidity, this pair has been inching closer to the next psychological resistance of 115.000. This level has been rejected on 3 occasions on the recent trend and the current wave would likely represent the 4th test of this concrete resistance! Based on the technical picture, the USDJPY is in the long term uptrend, however the 115.000 psychological barrier needs to be broken convincingly. To do so, the Monthly candle needs to pierce and close above 115.000 mark. This would give a precise indication that indeed this level has been cleared and the price can aim higher. Fundamentally, this pair is mainly driven by the Covid 19 pandemic in the last couple of years. With the discovery of the new variant Omicron, which is now the dominant strain around the globe we can expect the cases to rise rapidly in the coming weeks, as people gather and celebrate during this holiday season. With various statistics confirming that the omicron variant is far less fatal than its predecessor the "delta variant", there is still fear that the high infection rate and cases could again overwhelm the medical industry especially the hospitals! PREDICTION FOR THE COMING WEEKS ? As people gather and celebrate the holiday season, the variant would likely cause the infection rate to spike, which would likely be evident in the coming weeks as the cases might soar. Even with the vaccinations ongoing, the immunity that it provides is only temporary. So how would the market react? as usual the demand for safehaven would return thereby making JPY appreciate. But the demand for JPY or safehaven would not be that high, as this variant is less fatal due to many factors. Therefore USDJPY might test and reject the 115.000 level and fall towards the ascending channel trendline or support of 113.000 area. But 112.000 will likely not be broken and this DIP would be seen as the buying opportunity that the traders have been waiting for. Cheers, I hope you found this insight helpful. Happy holidays
Short
by FX618Analysis
Possible Pfizer Play AlertPfizer has had exponential growth over the past few months with delta variant and most recent omicron variant. Through these ideas we have seen billions of vaccines purchased by other countries and the United States. U.S just administered 500 million doses along with that the FDA just gave the green light to oral antiviral pill. We see a double touch and fall leading to a big jump after a consolidation period in the end of November to early December and right now we are sitting in that exact same bout again and all these purchases of vaccines and antiviral pills being released. Its prominent that Pfizer is bound to reach new highs especially within the early months of 2022. First few calls initiated at 60.3 and a load in the 61.55 zone as we break resistance lines. Stikes: January 28 2022-63 dollar calls- 20% chance of profit- Greeks showing decline of .03 a day with a delta of roughly .3 off the dollar jump
NYSE:PFELong
by haydencrann
Canadian dollar buoyed by risk sentimentThe Omicron variant continues to rage through Europe and the US, but the markets are in a positive mood. Why? There is a feeling that Omicron is much milder than Delta, which means that a wave of Omicron may get a lot of people sick, but it will not kill thousands and overload hospitals with severely ill patients. Time will tell if this is an accurate diagnosis. In the meantime, the global recovery outlook has improved and commodity prices are higher, which is good news for the Canadian dollar. Risk sentiment has been moving up and down over the past few weeks, depending on the headlines de jour concerning Omicron. Investors have been encouraged by the latest medical reports out of the UK and elsewhere which indicate that Omicron is up to 70% less severe than Delta. The equity markets continue to rise and risk barometers such as the Canadian dollar have moved higher this week. The markets are starting to view Omicron like a storm in a tea cup, but there is good reason not to sigh in relief just yet. First, Omicron is five times more contagious than Delta, which means that unvaccinated people could experience severe symptoms. Second, some reports indicate that Omicron is not necessarily less severe than Delta. Third, the Chinese Sinovac vaccine, which is the only one available for a majority of the world (the developing countries), doesn't appear to be effective against Omicron. In the meantime, the markets have dismissed Omicron as an annoying nuisance, and this rosy outlook could continue into January, barring some grim statistics from a wave of Omicron. Canada's GDP for October rebounded with a gain of 0.8% y/y, up nicely from 0.1% beforehand. The economy has now expanded for five straight months and the BoC is projecting growth in Q4 at 4.0% y/y, as the economy continues to gather steam, despite the challenges of Covid. USD/CAD has support at 1.2756. Below, there is support at 1.2615 There is resistance at 1.2987. Above, there is resistance at 1.3077
by OANDA
Novacyt ALNOV Graham Mullis, CEO of the Novacyt Group, commented: “Novacyt continues to process COVID-19 tests for current and future demand. We continue to ensure that innovation is at the center of our strategy and that our growing portfolio of COVID-19 tests is available to clients in private and public healthcare facilities to expand existing partnerships and support new partnerships. Throughout the pandemic, the demand for NHS testing has remained a key priority for the company and the award of the contract under the National PHE Microbiology Framework is a testament to our continued commitment. “We believe that our long-term strategy also supports the growth of Novacyt after COVID-19. In particular, our progress and growth potential in the private sector will not only help us maximize the opportunity for COVID-19 testing, but also ensure that we are well positioned, along with technologies and partners, for sustainable growth. beyond COVID-19. We therefore believe that Novacyt is well placed to continue to develop its business transformation. " This announcement contains inside information for the purposes of Article 7 of Regulation (EU) 596/2014. About the Novacyt Group The Novacyt Group is an international diagnostic company generating a growing portfolio of in vitro and molecular diagnostic tests. Its main strengths lie in the development, marketing, design and manufacture of diagnostic products. The main business units of the Company include the Primerdesign and Lab21 products, providing a wide range of high quality assays and reagents worldwide. The Group directly serves the microbiology, hematology and serology markets as well as its global partners, including large companies.
EURONEXT:ALNOVLong
by wallstreetstocks
New Zealand dollar powers higherThe New Zealand dollar has climbed above the 0.68 level on Wednesday. In the North American session, NZD/USD is trading at 0.6816, up 0.65% on the day. The currency has jumped 1.09% this week. Volatility is the name of the game, at least in the month of December. With market participants eyeing Christmas and the markets marked by illiquidity, we have been seeing volatility in the currency markets, particularly in minor currencies such as the New Zealand dollar, which are barometers of risk sentiment. The currency has been moving up and down like a yoyo. Last week, the explosion of Omicron cases across Europe sent risk appetite lower, and NZD/USD fell 0.84%. The currency has rebounded with gains this week of 1.0%, buoyed by reports that Americans and Brits are rushing to get Covid shots while the US and UK governments are securing millions of Covid vaccines. There are conflicting reports as to whether Omicron is as severe as the Delta variant, but it's clear that Omicron is much more contagious, and there are growing concerns that hospital resources could be stretched past the limit as Omicron spreads in Europe and the US. The New Zealand dollar's erratic moves have been due to headline-derived volatility rather than any market trends. Care should be exercised, as this could continue right up to the New Year. The lockdowns may have been lifted, but the initial relief has dissipated and New Zealanders are feeling a sense of pessimism as we head into 2022. The Westpac Consumer Sentiment Index fell below the 100 level in Q3, which indicates a majority of surveyed consumers were pessimistic about economic conditions. New Zealand has again closed its borders, in an attempt to keep a tight lid on the few Omicron cases that have been detected in the country. Will the island nation manage to stave off another wave of Covid? Only time will tell.
by OANDA
GBPUSD by UK COVID TimelineThis is the timeline of major COVID related events in the UK and the corresponding chart for GBPUSD. The lower chart is of moving averages of US and UK new COVID cases. Since the start of COVID and an initial big drop, GBPUSD has seen strength after strength, with a number of significant bottoms coinciding with major events in the UK political landscape. Put another way, it would appear that several of the government reactions to COVID in the form of Lockdowns and social restrictions have acted as catalysts for significant moves in the Pound. This can also be seen on the following chart, which is a combination of GBPUSD, GBPCAD AND GBPAUD (these major pairs chosen as they all trade between 1.3-2, giving a roughly similar weighting). The 1st National Lockdown, introduction of Local Lockdowns and introduction of Hospitality Curfews all created almost perfect short term bottoms for GBP. We can also see that since the government restrictions have eased - and the subsequent breakout of Omicron variant with little government response - GBP has seen a steady decline. With new COVID cases reaching back to back all time highs in the UK the general sentiment is that a lockdown, "circuit breaker" or tier system being reintroduced is inevitable. If history tells is anything to go by this is likely to be introduced after Christmas as politicians fear the public backlash if they were to ruin Christmas for families. Based on this history, if we are to see new strict measures introduced after Christmas, one could potentially view that as a signal to go long GBPUSD or other GBP pair, as the pound has generally responded positively to the introduction of new measures.
Long
by HayeTrading
Pound higher despite GDP revisionThe UK economy grew 1.1% in the third quarter, revised downwards from the initial estimate of 1.3%. The expansion was led by robust consumer spending, which beat expectations with a gain of 2.7% as lockdowns were lifted in July. Investors didn't seem perturbed from the downward revision, as the British pound has moved higher today. Still, it's doubtful that fourth-quarter growth will be as strong as Q3. The explosion in cases of the Omicron variant in December has prompted the government to implement plan B, which has dampened the economy, especially the hospitality sector. There was some light in the pre-Christmas gloom after Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced that it would not introduce new restrictions before Christmas. Still, Johnson warned that there could be further measures after the holiday. This would likely mean limits on the number of people meeting in indoor venues. With the holiday season comes illiquid markets, which means that market direction will be dictated by headlines, which could translate into volatility. The government announcement of no further restrictions before Christmas certainly removes some uncertainty for market participants, but if infection rates continue to soar in the UK, investors could get jittery and seek the safety of the US dollar at the expense of the pound. The newest vaccines and pills in the fight against Covid make the headlines daily, but a report about a super-vaccine could shake up the markets if confirmed. According to the report, researchers at Walter Reed Army Institute of Research are testing a vaccine that would protect against all Covid variants. Such a discovery would clearly be a game-changer, and would likely restore risk appetite, which has fallen sharply as Omicron rages across Europe and the US. GBP/USD has support at 1.3190 and 1.3116 There is resistance at 1.3314 and 1.3364
by OANDA
1
USD/CAD Technical Analysis, WTI CAD Fundamental OverviewUSDCAD has reached a 1 year high @1.2965. Breaking through the 1.2960 resistance could lead USDCAD to push towards 1.3020. Canada Core Retail Sales came out under expectations (1.3% vs 1.6%), reinforcing with fundamentals the technical analysis. Omicron is now the dominant COVID strain in US, with new cases soaring in Canada as well. Tighter measures have been put in place on Monday, as Quebec shuts down schools, bars, gyms. WTI price is still under pressure despite the recent rebound, likely a reaction to the new wave of omicron virus is hitting US and Europe, with the new restrictions from countries (still not in place in certain large markets, but are being studied) may reduce the demand of WTI and put heavy pressure on its price. CAD is one of the major commodity currencies which is highly correlated with WTI’s price, so lower price on WTI will push USDCAD trend to go higher as weaker CAD is expected. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. easyMarkets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party
Long
by easyMarkets
USDCAD: Price Loosing Momentum. Consolidation Ahead ?Since MAY 2021, the greenback has been appreciating against the CAD and various other currencies! The FED signaling BOND tapering at a faster rate and 2-3 hikes already priced in for 2022, the USD is resilient as for now. With the price of USDCAD approaching 1.3000 resistance barrier, the RSI has been generating a loose in price momentum evident by the bearish divergence. To trade this opportunity with caution and confirmation, we need the D candle to break the ascending trendline and 1.27600 level (candle must close below 1.27600). The take profit target would be at 1.26400 and the ideal stop loss should be placed above the swing high. A 1:1 risk to reward is needed to trade this opportunity, so the entry should be adjusted based on all these parameters. Cheers, I hope you found this insight helpful.
Short
by FX618Analysis
USDJPY UNLIKELY TO BREAK 112.000 BARRIER! Here is WHYA very interesting pair to trade during this ongoing pandemic, certainly USDJPY has caught the eye of many traders as both currencies acting as SAFEHAVEN. However in RISKOFF mood, the advantage certainly lies with the JPY, as the SAFEHAVEN status makes it appreciate against various counterparts such as the AUD, NZD, CAD, EURO, GBP. In the case of USD and CHF, the JPY has a bit of tussle appreciating since all are considered SAFEHAVEN assets. Looking at the bigger picture, in the RISK OFF markets the JPY certainly appreciates against the USD. For example since the pandemic began, we saw the JPY strengthen against the USD and fall to levels low as much as 105.000 In the RISKON markets, there is no doubt that the JPY weakens against various counterparts, but mostly against the USD. For example, when the global population started being vaccinated slowly, the signs of recovery in the USDJPY was quite evident, as the pair inched closer to 116.000 from lows of 105.000. A QUITE BIG RISE compared to other currencies paired with JPY. CURRENT MARKET MOOD: SEEMS TO BE RISKOFF AND RISKON. BUT PARTICULARY SKEWED TOWARDS THE RISKOFF AS THE OMICRON FEARS GATHER PACE Its festive season and the spread of the new variant would likely make the cases skyrocket, however as many are already vaccinated and boosters shots being administered, we should NOT expect much panic such as the one that was caused by the DELTA variant!. There are other several reasons behind to support this statement HERD IMMUNITY: since the pandemic began and up until now, the whole population has likely already achieved natural immunity and/or acquired immunity. Even as the new variant arise, our immune system are already equipped to fight off the virus DEATHS HAVE BEEN VERY LOW: comparing the fatality that delta variant was causing, so far if you observe the number of new omicron cases, the fatality is very very low. This is because of the HERD immunity. COVID 19 IS HERE TO STAY: Just like the COMMON COLD, COVID19 is here to stay with us. as it mutates and our immune system has also been equipped to fight off new strains. the COMMON COLD and COVID 19 are both classed from the same family of CORONAVIRUS. therefore the world is learning to deal and learn how to live with COVID 19. THE WORLD WANTS TO RETURN TO NORMAL: People are tired of lockdowns and as per the above point, are willing to live with the virus. be it using vaccines more often or just their natural immunity function. As such major financial banks are already predicting the economic recovery in 2022 and beyond GETTING TO THE POINT Current market mood is mixed, that is why it could be seen that USDJPY is ranging after falling sharply on the news that south Africa has detected a new variant. There is no doubt that this festive season would make the new cases sky rocket, however as looking at all the above points, mainly the vaccines and immunity, we can expect the fatality rate to be much much lower compared to the havoc that DELTA variant caused. Looking at the main chart, the festive season would likely cause the USDJPY price to HIT 112.000 or 113.000 area which is the lower end of the channel as the markets panic and enter the RISKOFF MOOD. But as usual the HERD IMMUNITY AND VACCINES BOOSTER ROLEOUT, would make this less threatening and markets might finally realize this and enter in RISKON mood. This would make the USDJPY price rise and possibly HIT 118.000 in 2022. However the covid 19 is highly unlikely to cause markets to enter in a long term RISKOFF mood, therefore we should expect this channel to hold and guide this pair steadily towards the 118.000 mark in 2022. In short this pandemic has caused the markets to be so cautious, however looking at all this every large DIP in USDJPY should be seen a buying opportunity. CHEERS AND THANKS. HOPE YOU FOUND THIS INSIGHT HELPFUL
Short
by FX618Analysis
Bonds Gain as Stocks Sell OffBonds have picked up as stocks have sold off due to increased risk sentiment. We have edged up to 131'02, the technical level we discussed yesterday. The Kovach OBV has picked up significantly, but is starting to level off as ZN finds value in the low 131 handle. We are gradually trekking up in a zig zag pattern, but will face resistance at the next technical level at 131'12. This is a relative high for December which will be difficult to break as we enter the holiday week for Christmas next week. We should have support from below at 130'26 and 130'19.
CBOT:ZN1!
by quantguy
2
Three Reasons Stocks Slid. When to Buy Back??Stocks have sold off hard, as we warned yesterday. This is a typical risk as stocks had just barely eeked out highs, and more momentum was necessary to sustain the rally. We have retraced significantly, but still within our projections from yesterday. The S&P 500 has given up the 4700 handle, and is currently seeing support from a cluster of levels in the mid 4600 handle, including 4668 and 4649. We are seeing strong support at this latter level confirmed by several green triangles on the KRI. If we break down further, we have one more level to provide support at 4632, but then we have the vacuum zone we've been warning about down to 4580. If we break down to this level, it may be a good idea for a long trade, but keep an eye on the news. Several factors have led to selloff in stocks, and we will see if these factors persist a risk off tone today. Investors seem to be shifting from growth stocks to value stocks, and this has taken its toll on the tech sector in particular. Additionally, omicron fears seem to be reigniting globally, and we have the reality of the Evergrande default setting in as well, though this was largely priced in.
FX:SPX500
by quantguy
3