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BTC Weekly Outlook (FA&TA)“You are a child of the Universe, no less than the trees and the stars; you have a right to be here. And whether or not it is clear to you, no doubt the Universe is unfolding as it should”. ---- Max Ehrmann First of all, from an actuarial background (as conservative as it goes in finance), I’ve never thought one day I would be giving a bullish bias on such a strong resistance, hinting a potential breakout. Well, but here it goes. It’s rare for the market to have a prolonged short bias, which (by probability) is much a better signal to reply upon compared to long biases. Furthermore, we broke the triangle, and the twitter news, and the on-chain pickups, and some Chinese information channels we have… So, even with a $300 gap, and bearish divergences that yell a correction in the short-term, I’m going to call bullish here. At times, the short-term gain/loss becomes less significant compared to the mid to long-term potentials (by short-term, I mean within 7 days since that’s how often we publish). Also, I would highly appreciate it if you can give us some feedbacks below, regarding which portion you would like to see more analysis on, or any parts you have questions on. Key Fundamentals: 1. Smart money action: Similar to last week, the on-chain smart money indicator is recently giving out accumulation signals. This indicates smart money has been accumulating during the past few weeks despite the price drop from 12k, and further indicates a strong support at 10k. This is a bullish sign for Q4. Price generally goes into a bullish trend when on-chain smart money accumulation is found. Can we drop in the short-term at all? If so, does that mean smart money made a dumb decision? Yes, then no. In Nov 2018, smart money accumulation is spotted at 6k, and price dropped to 3k in the next 2 months with more accumulation happening. While the BTC accumulated at 6k took an almost 50% loss, price soon rose to 12k+, generating a 2x. Grayscale: raised $900M in Q2 (its ATH quarter since inception). Even though $900M is not significant when compared to the mkt cap, it does indicate a switch in accredited/institutional investors’ view on the crypto space – where the money comes from to push the next ATH. We’ll keep an eye out for Q3 stats, which hasn’t been released yet. Aside from the Twitter (Square) $50M BTC purchase, Chinese smart money is also on the move. 2. Miner action: BTC mining difficulty is now 10x higher than that of end of 2017. This means, firstly, the security of the bitcoin network is improving significantly despite the price decrease compared to the 2017 20k ATH. Secondly, miners are profiting ever since the March capitulation, and more miners are joining the game at the current price level (the 11%+ difficulty adjustment was made in September). 3. Market Sentiment: Overall market sentiment remains neutral. For the seller group sentiment, this group is still in a bull trend. As mentioned, 10.5k was hit in the past week, but the “decr. in supply” alert didn’t show up. With the current development, I wouldn’t wait for the alert for bull entry. 4. Margin & Futures Market Actions: Daily chart speaking, the margin market has been on the bearish side since the drop to 10k. Even though mentioned often, I’ve never quite covered the significance of this situation. With longing being a much easier strategy compared to shorting, it’s much harder for the market to have a bearish sentiment compared to a bullish one (left alone the constant interest rate component). In other words, prolonged retail bullish sentiment may not turn into a bearish price action and the price may go up higher with the sentiment being more over-heated. However, prolonged retail bearish sentiment often turns into bullish price actions. We are still net bearish, which means more upward momentum. See the resemblance with early May 2019? If you don’t, you should investigate. Also, believe it or not, at the current moment, BTC is overly bearish. Yes, after an 8%+ rise in the past 72 hours. 5. Global Market Impacts: Let’s be clear. If the stock market drops 10%+, BTC will go down. For most investors, the hedge for low yield environment or political uncertainty is still gold over crypto. And even though BTC may recover quicker compared to stock indexes, the initial reaction is still likely correlated at this point. So, the question becomes, “will stock indexes drop significantly in the presence of US presidential election, potential prolonged low interest rate environment due to COVID, and the heightened tensions with China?” I do think the two main factors to watch out for are the further US fiscal stimulus and the earnings season. 6. CME Gap: Yes, there’s a $300 CME gap below us. However, given other bullish considerations, I’m not going to bet this gap closed in the coming week. Key Technicals: 1. Similar as last week, short-term resistance at 11.9k. Support now at 11.2-11.3k (past resistance). SL for long could be set around 11k. 2. Elliot wave: see chart above. 3. RSI bullish: Daily RSI looks bullish. Bull trend support (40) held, and we are finding support above RSI’s MAs. MA up-crossed. If we do drop in price, there’s a strong support at MA & RSI trendline. 4. MACD neutral: Bearish for the short-term. Bullish for the mid to long term. Do you agree or disagree? All thoughts and critics are welcomed! ============================================= 🌐 We believe in the power of blockchain data analysis! ==============================================
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by Phi-Deltalytics
48
FINDING THE BEST ROI BETWEEN SIMILAR ASSETS 📚 With Alpha's PoP💬Introduction : Today we are comparing the Dow Jones, NASDAQ, and the S&P by their annual performance to show how our open source indicator "Alpha Performance of Period" (PoP) can be used and why the results are useful. We will also look at other markets later in the writeup to see how they compare and to get a sense of which markets provide the best risk-to-reward and ROI. The idea here is to compare highly correlated markets over time to see which of these markets preforms the best overall represented by a period chosen by the user. This will help tell us which of these indexes is the best/worst to trade/invest with on average. For this article we will assume "best" equates to "best for long positions", but the indicator could be used for other purposes such as best shorting opportunities (largest drawdown amounts). Comparing these indexes shows that the NASDAQ has historically outperformed, while the DOW underperformed, and the S&P has been somewhere in the middle since the tech bubble on a year-over-year basis. You can also see this on the chart as represented by the indicator's metrics contained within its label, but we will summarize it below: NOTE: The figures below are rounded up to the nearest .01%, see charts for exact %'s. Equity Indices Total Annual performance results: (main chart) (Jan. 2000 - present) SPX = +111.79% NDX = +156.10% DJI = +117.65% Now let's look at the quarterly and monthly performance: Equity Indices Total Quarterly performance results: (Jan. 2000 - present) SPX = +104.57% NDX = +160.75% DJI = +111.65% Equity Indices Total Monthly performance results: (Jan. 2000 - present) SPX = +91.22% NDX = +125.274% DJI = +101.68% Equities Summary: While the NASDAQ has had periods of underperformance (for example the dot com bubble burst), on each of the charts you can see that not only has the NASDAQ outperformed (and the Dow underperformed) over time, the NASDAQ has also generally outperformed during each different period measurement. We won't do the math for each period here as that's the main purpose of this indicator, but you can apply the indicator on your own chart and take a look at it yourself. The main takeaways for us are this: 1. You are better off trading and/or holding the NASDAQ when compared to the 3 main indexes. 2. You are better off trading the S&P than the DJI. 3. The performance of the NASDAQ during COVID isn't an anomaly, and it doesn't necessarily indicate a tech bubble, outperformance in a specific period and overtime is the norm with this index. Now that you see how this works on the indexes, let's showcase how it can work for other markets. ----- RARE EARTH METALS~ Rare Earth Metals Total Annual performance results: (Jan. 2000 - present) GOLD = 193.87% SILVER = 186.72% PALLADIUM = 361.27% Rare Earth Metals Total Quarterly performance results: (Jan. 2000 - present) GOLD = 201.80% SILVER = 197.60% PALLADIUM = 304.04% Rare Earth Metals Total Monthly performance results: (Jan. 2000 - present) GOLD = 206.59% SILVER = 209.60% PALLADIUM = 283.25% Rare Earth Metals Summary: As you can see, despite the general public's love of Gold, Palladium vastly outperforms it. Meanwhile, we can confirm Silver underperforms. Many people wouldn't suspect Palladium was superior, but we now know from the resulting data (Hooray!). ----- FOREX~ Main Forex USD pairs Total Annual performance results: (Jan. 2000 - present) EURUSD = 19.48% GBPUSD = -9.03% AUDUSD = 23.90% Main Forex USD pairs Total Quarterly performance results: (Jan. 2000 - present) EURUSD = 20.75% GBPUSD = -16.53% AUDUSD = 20.98% Main Forex USD pairs Total Monthly performance results: (Jan. 2000 - present) EURUSD = 19.57% GBPUSD = -16.70% AUDUSD = 21.93% Forex Summary: As you can see against a USD base-pair, GBP is the worst performing from the 2000's by all periods. One might assume the more popular EUR pair preformed better than for example AUD, but the reality is AUD takes the cake and preformed better than both EUR and USD by each period over time. ----- CRYPTOCURRENCY~ Main Crypto USD(T) pairs Total Annual performance results: (Jan. 2017 - present) BLX = 1351.18% ETHUSDT = 8967.62% LTCUSD = 5012.80% Main Crypto USD(T) pairs Total Quarterly performance results: (Jan. 2017 - present) BLX = 504.60% ETHUSDT = 1124.81% LTCUSD = 824.44% Main Crypto USD(T) pairs Total Monthly performance results: (Jan. 2017 - present) BLX = 357.63% ETHUSDT = 739.39% LTCUSD = 530.67% Crypto Summary: Crypto has the largest period losses, but it also has the largest period gains (by far). Of all the crypto pairs, ETH offers the best ROI. Interestingly, ETH offers the best ROI of all markets mentioned in this article as well (although it also has the biggest losses and highest risk associated with its uptrends). Some might find it odd that Litecoin outperforms Bitcoin (although like with ETH, the drawdown is notably more intense). ----- Conclusion: Use "Alpha Performance of Period" (PoP) to compare markets for what is best suited to your portfolio depending on your individual risk appetite. It is meant to be used on highly correlated markets, but as you can see you can also compare different sets of markets together to get a sense of which offers the best risk-to-reward, ROI, etc. This tool thus has many uses related to figuring out which markets you want to trade based on historical data and offers a simple way to quickly compare past performance. Hope you guys enjoy it! :D Resources: apple.news Hit that 👍 button to show support for the content! Help the community grow by giving us a follow 🐣
TVC:SPXEducation
by AlphaBotSystem
15
CADJPY on the verge of break a bullish channelI am positioning to buy CADJPY because of > Potential bullishness in Oil price which is a plus for CAD > Global improvement in containing COVID-19 which implies more economies will be opened and investors will start to dump safe haven like JPY. I am not ruling out the weak legdown due to Hongkong Riots and Minneapolis Riots which will likely worry investors and improve price of safe havens (JPY and Gold). I think they will be for a short time and will provide opportunity to buy at the bottom.
Long
by bluepipsforexsignals
ON SEMICONDUCTOR ($ON): Will ON be Having an OFF Day?✨ New charts every day ✨ Like, Comment & Follow to help the community grow 🎉🎉 --- Expectations of Q2 earnings are low for ON Semiconductor, and last quarter performance was underwhelming as well. There is likely a short setup here, and with earning only a few days away on May 14th, it makes sense to find our short now. Resource: www.earningswhispers.com --- 1. Fractal Trend is signaling downtrend (Maroon bar color) on the 4 hour chart. While this downtrend started a while back, it is still technically in play and that means we want to look for short setups with our strategy. 2. With the strategy, we are looking to open a short position after a reaction from either a bearish orderblock plotted by Orderblock Mapping or a S/R level plotted by Directional Bias. 3. R1 and R2 are looking like probable resistance and could result in a continuation of the downtrend after they are retested. 4. Our entry for R1 depends on what the open looks like Monday. If the entry makes sense with Monday's open, we have a target of S1. Our stop for the R1 entry is set in a way that gives us roughly a 3:1 risk to reward ratio here since there aren't a lot of levels of interest to use for stop placement. 5. Our entry at R2 will be in play if our R1 entry fails. With R2 we have placed our stop right above the bearish order block above our R2 entry. The target for our R2 entry is S1 as well. 6. The overall market might be in recovery mode, and ON might be recovering too, but this chart is still in a bear trend. Thus, taking this short at resistance into what is likely a bearish earnings makes sense.
NASDAQ:ON
by AlphaBotSystem
AAPL - Bullish Monday?Sharp decline of all stocks across this sector, AAPL selling off from $328 down to $256. As previously charted, we considered this a temporary sell off or profit taking, a smaller correction. Once price hit $256, it triggered quite a bit of purchases. Volume rose quickly on Friday, and the day ended at $273. Aftermarket saw some increase in price, current asks are around $276. I would not be suprised to see a nice return today, we may not be out of the danger zone yet, but we saw a great bounce off the 38.1% short term fib level, and a potential retrace set. Over the weekend, we saw an upgrade by Oppenheimer to Outperform and a target price of $320. Don't forget the actual quarterly profits of this stock, when considering 'the coronavirus sell-off'. This is a much sought after stock, and I think $256 was many peoples buy-in price. I will be placing a market purchase today, we should see a good return on some stocks in this sector, and am a long term believer in this one.
NASDAQ:AAPLLong
by Shwayze
ORBEX: EURUSD, USDJPY - The Risks Of A US-EU TradewarIn today's #marketinsights video recording I analyse #EURUSD and #USDJPY #EURUSD weak on: - US-EU potential trade conflict (airbus illegal state aid - WTO depended) - ECB's Germans board member resignation Medium-term #Euro led flows will hang on Lagarde's policy. A potential transition to fiscal tools will be euro positive #USDJPY strong on: - Dovish Evans turned neutral - Positive home sales - No GDP revision - No safe-haven flows - Dollar seen as risk positive Stavros Tousios Head of Investment Research Orbex This analysis is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice
by Orbex
USDCHF LONG TRADELooking at recent structure, we can see the price are creating a new LH which align with previous based as well as 50% fibs level. therefor give us a chance to go short. _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Traders! if you like my ideas and do take the same trade like i do, please write it in comment so we can manage the trade together. join my free telegram channel to see more about my service at LCFXpro Trading Floor. LINK IN BIO!! _____________________________________________________________________________________ Thank you for your support! LamchiuFX
Long
by LCFXpro
18