On Balance Volume (OBV)
1hr to go. Bullish OBV on the 4H for $BTC?These bullish divs in the 4H BTC chart often play out quite well. I'm not excited that we are below the SuperTrend on that timeframe, but the OBV div is set to print in the next 50 minutes. Keep your eyes peeled. Elliot Wave has fully played out as well on multiple time frames.
Let's see how it goes. Market feels super heavy except for NEAR and AVAX is holding onto it's POC at around $85. $*7 for AVAx is quite a critical point .
REMINDER: It's Friday, a weekend.
We have had historically bad dumps on Friday nights when everyone is AFK. Keep those stops tight.
Stay safe and rich out there.
$NEAR, easy invalidation on an asset with relative strengthYour job as a trader is to find assets with RELATIVE STRENGTH to this downward trend (if you're long).
$NEAR fits that description, for a simple reason: It's at support on the OBV, right above the daily MA200 and the MA200 is pointing up.
This means that not only is the asset still bullish, it also has a significant edge in your favor: EASY INVALIDATION OF A CLOSE BELOW THE MA200.
Thought to find these opportunities in this market. This is a gift. Enjoy!
AT&T ready to for the next big jump? Dear TradingView-Community,
today I want to share the first investment idea and I hope it will help you making the right decisions or bring a new perspective to your analysis.
I really would like you to ask for feedback, that I can also learn from different views to become better over time. Thanks a lot for your time and I really hope it is not wasted, but for your benefit.
As you can see on the chart, it is a really long cycle of the AT&T stock performance. As many communication stocks at that time AT&T hit its all-time high shortly before the dot-com bubble reached its biggest volume. AT&T have never seen this price since. Instead over the years there were several up and downs, but all had one thing in common >> every high and low stayed within a triangle (purple lines) and the volatility went down more and more.
In October 2021 after presenting Q3 results, the stock price went to free fall and left the triangle to the lower end. But the downturn haven't stopped there, also the last significant support zone at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement - red line and active since 2005 - couldn't stop the sell off. Instead the chart went down almost until the last significant low from both - end of the dot-com correction (2002-2003) and end of the financial crisis (end of 2008-2009) (red bubbles).
Now let's take a closer look to the indicators, to find out if this also is a similar extreme reaction of the market as it was twice in the last decade.
1. RSI - Relative Strength Index
As you can see in the picture only 4 times since 2000 we could see a oversold situation in the weekly RSI chart until today. It is relatively easy to interpret the first 3 oversold situation because it was always the end of a broader market correction (dot-com, financial crisis, Covid 1st wave). Therefore it was also pretty easy to predict that the oversold situation will be corrected by increasing stock prices after the fear went out of market and the optimisim took place.
But what about the current situation?
We have an even more oversold situation, in fact we reached a new all-time low at 16.46. It would be very easy to argue that this is a perfect moment to buy stocks as much as possible, because this oversold situation will be cleared for sure very soon. But...
In my opinion there are several obstacles on the way and it is not that clear that a higher RSI also comes along with a higher stock price.
1. Currently we don't have had a broader market event that explains the downturn of this stock.
2. The competitor situation has changed dramatically over the last decade. (rise of T-Mobile US and recently the rollout of Tesla's StarLink project.
3. The liability situation becomes worse dramatically over the last 5 years with acquisitions of DirecTV and TimeWarner.
4. Both really large acquisitions are already on the way to separate again from AT&T in new corporations, but for a far lower value than purchased before.
5. The necessity of investing into 5G and fiber optic infrastructure to fight the competitors.
6. The latest spin-off announcement and the merger of HBO and Discovery also leads to dividend cuts for the first time since 50 years.
7. Technically the bearish cross of the triangle is a massive sell signal, but this is already happen and the price dropped already 20% since then.
Nevertheless, I need to point out that all above arguments also have some positive counterparts + we need to differentiate between a long-term investment based on value investment strategies and an short to mediate technical based investment.
So let's find out the positive things about the current situation and the nearer future:
1. Technically we are at an extreme low point when it comes to fib-retracement and RSI - that can lead to a turnaround with a short-term potential until $24.75 (23.6% Fib-retracement) or even $29.34 (38.2% Fib and connection to the triangle.
2. The merger of HBO-Discovery leads to a lot of additional stocks from the new corporation (70% of the AT&T stocks when you hold your stocks until the merger went through (approx. mid 2022). As you can see after several spin-off of different companies (e.g. Mercedes-Benz AG split from Mercedes-Benz Truck and Buses) the sum of both stocks are very often more worth than the stock before the spin-off. Means even when the AT&T stock price is not tending upwards, the spin-off and merger next year brings lots of potential.
3. The Spin-off leads to a significant liability reduction for the AT&T stock and that leads to a better value for the whole company.
4. The new merger is one of the market entertainment leader and with its digital and subscription growth strategy as well as its plans to expand to Europe, the best position in sport documentation and the strong brands will be a great base for expansion.
5. The reduced dividend kicks out dividend investors, but also leads to more free cash-flow to speed up the extension of 5G and fiber network.
6. The separation from the media section leads to more focus on the core business and allows to slimline the customer approach what also will safe operational costs.
7. AT&T is still a strong brand and one of the biggest communication companies in the world. It serves not just the US but the most countries of the world on all continents. Especially in raising Latin America AT&T is leader in costumer experience and working environment. A great foundation for further growth. Also the connection to the US government and especially into the emergency and health sector is a Garant for stable returns.
What I am now looking for to find a safe trade-in point with a W/L ratio of at least 2/1:
1. MACD weekly
When the blue line is crossing the red line again upwards that is a clear sign of strength and very bullish to interpret. Especially on the weekly basis. To trade-in earlier and have both - more potential and risk - you can use the daily basis instead. But the risk of a false signal is slightly higher.
2. OBV weekly
OBV stands for On-Balance-Volume and symbolize the activity of "smart money". Means a new high in OBV symbols massive institutional activities and could be interpreted that there is a lot of big money in the stock. On the other side new lows symbol the complete opposite. As you can see in the chart above the idea is to figure out new extreme points and use them as an investment chance.
In my opinion, we currently see a big uncertainty from institutions about the plans AT&T is planning to go. Or more likely because of the uncertainty the big money went out of the stock to observe the ongoing events and the next steps of the company from the side lane.
This brings me to think about against the main stream and feels a lot like over fearing. For me a good signal to get in, because as soon as the smart money comes back, the stock price is likely already jump by 10% or more.
3. CMV weekly
The Chaikin-Money-Flow stands for buying pressure when positive and for selling pressure when negative. As you find in the Chart, very often a new low of the CMV leads to a massive return reaction in the chart price. Therefore I am thinking again with this new all time low, the technical pressure to the upside is already in the making and could lead to a new buying period over the next couple of month.
What do you think about my interpretation on AT&T? Is it a buy, a hold or still a stock to short? I am already excited about your additional indicators that had work for you and what this indicators may tell about the next move of the AT&T stock.
Please also feel free to comment critic on my interpretation, but it would be great, when you also add some value how to do better in future.
Again thank you very much for your time and if this was value for you, you are always welcome to donate. That helps me to stay motivated in sharing my analysis.
Best wishes and maximum profit for all of you.
Daniel from EcoFinLife
>>> When all passengers in a boat are leaning to much over port it's time to go to starboard. Earlier than later the others will follow. <<<
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TradingView is the world leader in providing amazing data. One indicator seldom used to detect market manipulation is OBV.
Let's look at that in this tutorial for New World Honest Trading Views!
OBV clearly tells us Ethereum is bullish for the last 10 days although the price has been suppressed. What happen next on break of resistance. Let's make this a teaching moment for all your readers. There are NO WRONG answers, just different points of views. Based on analysis on the latest good data you have and let's chat here!
Thank you Bitcoin, Ethereum and TradingView and all the good rocket scientists out there. The new World "Law Makers and Regulatory Viewers". And Rocket Launchers and Landers! LOL
JustCharts! WOW! Wild $T1mes alright!
SUSHI/USD looking good to me... Hay All Traders,
I'm not a financial advisor, Don't buy or sell bass on what I'm saying... PLEASE DO YOUR OWN HOMEWORK. THIS POST IS JUST FOR INFO ONLY... At this time, I do own a small amount of this coin!
I'm looking at the daily chart and putting on my version of the RSI, and yes, it has a lower lowered, but it's still hodling the overall trend. With my version of MACD, it's still red, but I'm looking at the bars at the top, it's popping out of the "Linear Regression," my look back is the last 100 days and 10 days, and I'm using Linear Regression as support and resistance.
And looking at the 1H chart, it looks even better to me!
Overbought weekly RSI with (daily) divergence in OBV and RSI14As the two mentioned indicators confirm each other AND the weekly RSI is also overbought I risk a little short position. Nevertheless, market could move higher anytime so I would only risk 1% with this first trade. If there is a new a high and I get stoped out I would risk another position if there are signs of weaknesses.
If the short plays out well I would try to make the trade even bigger! ;)
Caution: Trade against mid- and long-term trend! Stop-loss is beeing moved closer if there is a chance. :)
OBV at alarming levelsSince the year started, OBV had stayed above the horizontal purple arrow, but since mid-May, it has been downtrending, and on June 5th, it crossed below this level.
RSI divergence shows some strength, as we are making higher lows. But the order of importance is: price, volume, RSI.
The width of the Bollinger Band hasn't been this low YTD, which is signaling some potential volatility.
ANPC Long IdeaWatching the gap at 3.50 I have a feeler position on (just my style) 2M float.....OBV don't lie so I'm rocking with the feeler position with a limit around $3.50 as well (full size with a bracket SL) Be careful.
CEI Long IdeaOBV showing a wide discrepency vs spot. I am long here looking for a move possibly to .70s in the short term. Stop below the daily range its been in. Size appropriately.
VINO low float longI am still long vino from 3.40s. Holding for 2-3x
VINO
40 for 1 split on nasdaq uplist 7.5M float
Insane levels of accumulation.
Tumin Stone Capital is the offering buyer (owned by 3i)
Offering due to close anyday now...been seeing huge institutional block buys coming in over the last few weeks. You looking for the next low float banger that is severely undervalued? This is probably you're best bet.
Be careful of your risk sizing especially if you can't catch a dip. The spread is very wide most of the time....20c or more at times. Use precaution as obviously low floats can be very volatile.
I have a sell order at $6, then $8, then the rest at $10.
Goodluck.
Bitcoin (BTC) • Let's do some On Balance Volume analysis Bitcoin want to test higher but volumes overall still looking very weak to be considered bullish.
Swaps keep trading back and forward but futures still remain relatively flat with normalised premiums (that is good).
Funding rates currently favouring shorts as price mark up.
Overall feel pretty neutral leaning bearish (even if we mark up to test 45k range). Daily and Weekly timeframes look ugly.
I want to see volumes and some other strong signals coming out of futures to be more convinced that we found a bottom. At the moment I am not convinced.
In this video I focus on the analysis of the On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator.
BTCUSDT 4H | Bitcoin market overview: OBV FallingHello, dear subscribers!
In the previous and other reviews we have repeatedly analyzed the meaning of the OBV indicator.
We have marked the important support for the buyers - 2.15M. In the days following the last bitcoin market review, the sellers managed to break down important support for the buyers. The bitcoin price corrected from $59,500 to $55,500 in this move.
At the moment, we are seeing the bitcoin price recovering from the fall. One of the expected scenarios of bitcoin price movement is a return to the 2.15M level of the OBV indicator after which a bounce down and a deeper fall of bitcoin price. On the chart, the projected movement is marked with arrows. The next bearish targets after the $55,000 are $52,000 and the round $50,000. It is also possible that the bulls will be able to win back the fall and raise the OBV above 2.15M.
Other indicators MACD and RSI are in the recovery zone, RSI is above 50, MACD shows growth.
In the next days or hours we may see a decoupling in the bitcoin market. All buyers should be careful, probably now the bitcoin price is at an attractive enough level to take profits.
Subscribe to the channel and stay tuned!
BTCUSDT 4H | Bitcoin market overview: Bullish signHello, dear subscribers!
In previous reviews we marked the $58,000 level as important for the bulls.
Fixing above it will give the bulls a chance to continue the full-fledged uptrend. In the past days, we have seen an active growth of bitcoin from the support level 1 - $51,500 - $52,000. Today, bitcoin price got close to 58,000 and broke through the downward channel, in which it was after the historical high.
The MACD and RSI indices turned up and are in the green zone. The OBV indicator touched the support at 2.15M, which is important for buyers and also turned up. All this indicates a full-fledged attack of the bulls, who are satisfied with the current correction and are ready to move the price up to new highs. In the current situation there might be a quick break-up of the level of $58,000 or a fake break-up with a long price chattering around $58,000 and a fight between the bulls and the bears for determining the direction of the trend.
Subscribe to the channel and stay tuned!
BTCUSDT 4H | Bitcoin market overview: CorrectionHello, dear subscribers!
In the previous review, we looked at the downward exit from the triangle as a priority movement option for bitcoin price.
In the following days, bitcoin price corrected down to the designated support zone. The bitcoin price entered the support zone of $51,000 - $52,000, after which the bulls beat off the bears' attack. The current bitcoin price resistance level is in the $55,500 zone. Support levels remain the same.
The RSI and MACD indicators are in the red zone, but at the moment show recovery after a strong fall. The OBV indicator touched 2.15M - this level is the main support for the buyers. A fixation below it would indicate the formation of a global downtrend.
At the moment, bitcoin price is in the wide zone of $51,000 - $55,500. In the coming days, buyers or sellers will try to overcome the boundaries and show their strength, in the current situation, the initiative remains with the bears.
Subscribe to the channel and stay tuned!