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Onbalancevolumewithmas

BTC Monthly IchiMoki Cloud and On Balance Volume look AmazingIntroduction I have been waiting to do this idea for over a year and it seems that the moment is finally pregnant. When I saw the W pattern I did some testing and concluded that the 1.618 would be a likely target. If the situation became properly bearish the reversal could possible take out the low of the W. Many harmonic and cypher patterns, upon reaching some intermediate targets, reverse to take out the W patterns. In this case we see that the price has found support on the previous ATH, consolidated, and continued it’s march upward. As such, the new target is now the 2.618 of the previous W pattern, with a suspected considerable consolidation at the 2 level. In other words, a move to about $390,000 with a major stall at $125,000 In a perfect world we would find price stalling within a golden pocket of 5% of the fib target. I cannot be that precise right now. Indicators Ichimoku Cloud I am by no means a cloud master or a sky walker. But I can recognize patterns and to me the pattern here is clear. The bitcoin price has returned to the cloud after a significant draw down and is in the process of powering through. It has taken out the conversion line and is facing the base line as resistance. I would hope to the vast majority of readers that it seems clear that the base line is going to be flipped and we should expect a breakout to the upside. The blue boxes on our chart show the previous examples of price interacting with the base line, conversion line, and the cloud proper and it seems clear that this situation is familiar to the previous two occurrences. If we look at the W pattern we can see price stalled at the base line and there was strong profit taking above it. There is a minority chance that we are in a similar position. I would say it is less than 10%. One of the main reasons why I believe such is the volatility in from 2018 to June 2019 was too high relative to the 2014-2016 bear market. I find that low volatility bear markets occur when smart money is buying very discreetly, trying to absorb supply as gently as possible without moving up the price much. The wild swings of the W pattern do not support that notion. All that is fine. We have to adjust to the reality we see. This bear market has been lower volatility. So I suspect a more protracted move to the upside with a slower start. On Balance Volume with SMAs To speak to all of the meme speaking zoomers out there, the On Balance Volume with SMAs is low key one of my favorite indicators, fr fr ong no cap. (If you have a suspicion, then YES, I am at the age when I use slang to embarrass my kids and the next generation for my own amusement). I kinda missed the April Fools Pump of 2019 and most of the ride up looking for a pull back. In order to make sure I did not do that again I looked for something I had missed. I suspected I had a missing tool I had neglected to put into my tool box. And I looked back on various time frames I saw an amazing tool in the OBV with SMAs. I have been using it on higher time frames to help verify bias ever since. Almost all of TA is founded in two basic analysis: Price action and volume action. Falling or rising volume often confirm or negate price action patterns. Having bearish or bullish crosses on OBV SMAs help confirm the volume action that verifies the chart formations. And even more simply, the OBV SMAs help verify tipping points in buying and selling pressure. When the OBV SMAs are staked bullish (OBV over the 10SMA which is over the 20) then buying pressure has obviously been bullish and the bias is towards upside. If the OBV is below the 10 SMA and that is below the 20 SMA the bias is basically bearish. Once you get that down you can add some complexity and divergence to figure out when you are in absorption or distribution. Right now the OBV SMA situation is clearly bullish. The bias is long What this all means I am biased bullish as far as cryptocurrencies are concerned. My previous ideas detail why I am avoiding the Ethereum ecosystem in favor of other layer 1 currencies but I still suspect it will experience some middling upside. As for me, I am using my pull back strategy to try and get good prices as we go up and to force myself to not buy highs but to rather buy dips. I have my preferred alts right now and I have a few that I am waiting for to see how they handle their patterns. My linked ideas on fantom and link will show some pretty good calls. My largest bag is in fantom, and I wish it had more liquidity. But I would rather build a position in fantom over time and get outsized gains rather than dumping more money easily into a higher market cap coin. You do you. Free chart Price landed on the monthly 100 EMA perfectly. I have a strong suspicion that the next bear market will reach the 200 EMA. The chart below shows that we don’t even have a 200 monthly EMA yet. We only have about 170-ish periods. But in the next bear market I will be there, posting my buy the dip ideas and only getting a hand full of views because everyone is to bearish to believe the bottom is in.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by This_Guhy
12
Monero Cup and Handle Just flipped the Monthly SARIntroduction I have been waiting for an OG coin alt season for over a year now. A lot of the top 10 or top 20 coins from 2015, 2017 and 2017 massively over performed compared to bitcoin and Ethereum and have had to go through an even longer cooling off period than those cryptos did. Monero has dropped to the 20s in coinmarketcap.com’s rankings and some of the coins I favor as trades and ideologically are a lot lower. I got a bit excited around February/march of 2022 but did not get the follow through that I was hoping for. Now that I have see a flip of the monthly parabolic SAR I am a lot more optimistic that a high probability move to the upside is beginning in Monero and my choice alts. Since they are lower down in market cap one cannot build a position as easily as one could in a top 10 or 20 coin. There is a lot of wicks and slippage when entering a position too enthusiastically or carelessly. I cannot just market into a margin position without creating a wick that immediately puts me under water and messes up my margin level. But if I am right the gains will be worth it. Main Analysis The Parabolic SAR is quite a nice indicator on the higher time frames. It was literally named Stop And Reverse and was designed to find places where price can take a U turn. If you are expecting a multi-month or multi-year to happen based on whatever (analysis, fundamenals, etc) a flip of the SAR helps clear “technical resistance” much in the same way clearing the 200SMA in a bear market is a sign that a bull market is brewing. Another technical resistance we have cleared is the resistance line of the flag. We popped through quite nicely and have been going sideways for about 10 days after the initial move began. While there is a chance that we can retest the flag’s previous resistance as support I think it is more likely that price pumps. A lot of biases of a lot of traders should have flipped to bullish with the SAR. The bull season is still in the early stages and there is still a lot of doubt but generally the bulls will be winning. Other Charts The monthly chart for both other times the Parabolic SAR flipped bullish look amazing when viewed with Heiken Ashi candles. Massive 50-70 percent pull backs don’t seem to matter anymore when viewed on the HA chart. The idea that I can get into this trade the first week it is happening is pretty exciting. The Parabolic SAR is usually used with some momentum indicator and the inventor of the Parabolic SAR liked to use another of his creations, the ADX. Here is a simplified version. Looks promising. The chart below shows the long term SMA situation. Price is winding up for its next move between the 200 and 100 SMAs. I think it will be to the upside in a big way. My channels chart set up has the gaussian and Keltner channel (1 and 2 ATR multipliers). Price is struggling at the guassian midline and I think we will see an upside resolution. The chart also shows that the keltner midline (the 20 EMA is a good place to buy pull backs on this uptrend if it is similar to the 2016 uptrend. Lots of people like to talk about price action but don’t spend enough time talking about volume action. One of the best indicators for volume is the On Balance Volume and with some moving averages it is really easy to tell when the long term buying and selling pressure has flipped. I am very optimistic that XMR’s OBV SMAs will flip bullish. Since volume can vary by exchange here is Binance as well Where is the money going to come from? Money has to come from somewhere to pump XMR and the other OG coins I favor. I think it is going to be rotated out from the ETH ecosystem. Many times a W pattern will have price pump to a double top or even all time highs and then price returns to the rise between the valleys. The chart below shows that both XMR and LTC had price return to the rise between the valley. Also, my linked ideas will have my bearish post on NDX. I think the equity markets will be howling here shortly as price retraces deeper. My plan I am looking to add to my positions with a simple pull back strategy. When both the Log MACD and Stoch are below zero know we have just had a pull back and that pull back will have generated some support and resistance lines. I will look to buy when price is again above that resistance line and catch some momentum. This will help me not buy and have the price continue to fall which is always nice. I will not be buying the bottoms though. I do not like the idea of buying things and having it be the same price six months to a year later. Much nicer to buy the pull back and watch price climb out of the hole and not return. I have this planned for a lot of the OG coins, many of which are now in obscurity. Zcash and Dash are in the 70s and 90s. Very low market cap. XPR, BCH and others are still rather big but not as exciting but they are going to be bought on pull backs just the same. XMR also topped over 200 days before total 2 did on this last uptrend. I have to be prepared to rotate out of XMR and into other coins if XMR reaches its major targets.
Editors' picks
KRAKEN:XMRUSDLong
by This_Guhy
25
Optimism poised for a 75% draw downTLDR: Lots of well established TA suggests OP takes out the previous lows at 0.41. Analysis I am going to begin with the divergence primer just in case a reader is unfamilar with the divergences and what they mean. Divergence Primer Classic Divergence (Trend Reversal) Bearish: Higher highs on price action but lower highs on the indicator Bullish: Lower lows on price action but higher lows on the indicator Hidden (Trend Continuation) Bearish: Lower high on the price action and higher highs on the indicator Bullish: Higher low on the price action and a lower low on the indicator As the chart shews both OPUSD and OPBTC both have great deal of hidden bearish divergence on the Log MACD (and histogram) as well as the RSI and Stochastic RSI. The Gaussian channel is pretty powerful as support and resistance and generally speaking I get excited to buy beneath a red Gaussian channel or when I see price action powering its way through. Not so much with OP right now, with the hidden bearish divergences. I expect the top of the channel will continue as resistance. Likewise the 100 Daily Moving Average is right above price action and I assume it will continue to act as resistance as well. The volume situation doesn't look good to me either. With price breaking out above the Value Area of the VPVR to create all time highs and coming back in on both OPUSD and OPBTC I think we are going to see more typical behavior and the value area will act as resistance, especially on OPBTC. The On Balance Volume has set virtually equal highs with this current peak and the peak from September. That is a sign of bullish exhaustion. It is also concerning that both the 10 and 20 SMA are below the 100. If the OBV regresses to the mean (the 10 or the 20) then that dip would get me deep into the money. Not all the way to target, but deep enough I can have a fairly profitable stop loss. Here is a similar move on Matic over two years ago where Matic dupped and took out what looked like strong support at the 0 line before rallying up to just above the 0.618 retracement before crashing. From there it went 400x If OP has a similar run then I will be quite pleased. Also, if OP crashes down to about the 0.28c I will go in full accumulation mode and hopefully we will see it run in another year or so. Macro I still think a lot of the equities indices are mostly done with their downside. I also like a lot of the "OG" crypto currency coins like XMR, Dash, XPR, BCH and I think a lot of the nu-crypto coins that were the top runners of 2021 are going to crash at bit more before going into long consolidation. That is a lot of moving parts for me to hopefully get right.
Short
by This_Guhy
1
Bitcoin volume and momentum predict impulse buildingTLDR On Balance Volume 10 and 20 SMA Rossing bullish below the 100 SMA is mega bullish, the Stoch RSI above 80 confirms momentum is shifting. In the idea text ADX also looks hella bullish. Impulse to $41-50k very likely next couple of months before stall. Introduction I got my start trying to swing trade on 2018 on bitcoin. Before then I was pretty lucky at buying and holding, as many of us are, and tried to step up my game. I got wrecked pretty bad. I later complete miss the April Fools Day pump of 2019 and watch in doubt for months as Bitcoin rallies to a lower high in June 2019. I spent a lot of time trying to see why I missed the uptrend and found the On Balance Volume with SMA indicators by mattzab and I learned its strengths and its weaknesses (it is kinda hard to look for bearish volume divergences on a asset that has flow like bitcoin does). I renewed my understanding of the basics like zooming out to higher time frames and use of simple momentum indicators like the Stoch RSI or using common pairing of indicators, like the Parabolic SAR and the ADX. All that to say a big move to the upside is very likely. Main Chart The similarities between the 2019 and current 2022 bottoms are very clear on this set of indicators and price action. Bitcoin is basing out and showing strength after some long tern topping structure. The 2018 low was proceeded by a yearlong descending triangle and the 2022 low was preceded by a double top that took over a year to play out. Price and the Stochastic RSI The blue circle shows that price where price has been slowly strengthening and the orange circle shows that the Stochastic RSI has breached above 80. When that happened in 2018 the indicator ran across the top for several periods before having a massive pump. On Balance Volume with SMAs While the Stoch RSI was climing the On Balance Volume was also strengthening and showing bullishness. Generali accumulating when the OBV is below the 100 SMA is a good idea. Even better, if you have trust in the project, when both the 10 and 20 OBV both get below the 100 SMA. That is a sign you are in a deep and painful bear market and you are buying what other people don't want. Waiting to see the 10 and 20 cross bullishly under the 100 SMA means we have confirmation that volume as transition's to the bulls at least temporarily. It is possible for some double and triple crosses to appear. That means it is an even longer accumulation period which suggest an prolonged uptrend once the indicators and price fully turn bullish. More cautuious traders can wait tull the OBV is above the 100 or when the 10 and 20 OBV also get above the 100 EM.A. This does not get them the best prices but does get them in the trade when volatility has picked up. . The Second Chart Parabolic SAR and ADX The ADX and Parabolic SAR are often combined into the same chart. I currently favor a weekly chart for the ADX and a monthly chart for the Parabolic SAR. This gives me the sensitivity I desire on the weekly timeframe but keeps me alert to where major stalls or reversals in a move could occur. With the D+ and D- converging on one another a cross is very likely. It is very high probability when taking into consideration the main charts bullishness. A cross of the D+ and D- means a move to the monthly SAR is very likely. It also seems likely that price will have a stall in the red zone based off of previous support and resistance. I am going to use any potential stall to look at alts that are showing relative strength and rotate into them. That massive pump broke the long term downtrend of resistance shown in black and then price pumped to the red zone. For our 2022 bottom we have not seen a return to the red zone in over six months. A stall here could mean several things. Price could run beneath or at the red zone sideways and strengthen or it could impulse above all time high and then spend time confirming the previous all time high as support deep into the red zone. It way to soon to be sure. Linked Ideas and my operating assumptions These have not changed for a couple of months. The "OG" coins that did not set higher highs during the last crypto bull will set higher highs. Most of the top runners of 2021 will still be in consolidation for this cycle but we may still see a stand out. Some new coins like Optimism will have their first bull markets and go crazy then have over 90% draw downs.
INDEX:BTCUSDLong
by This_Guhy
3