Oott
CVX Possible Short Term Pain, But Looking Good Beyond That.Bearish short term ABC correction waves forming with H&S pattern, and possibly bullish mid term reversed H&S pattern forming with a new 12345 wave cycle. Long term seems healthy (possible bullish triangle forming) to break '14 highs.
Testing a crucial resistanceIf crude breaks out higher through the resistance if could outperform stocks in the months to come!
Bullish consolidation?Crude is consolidating around a key level. A week ago I posted that if this gets resolved lower longs will have to liquidate. But in no way I would not exclude a bullish resolution of this consolidation.
Even if the price of oil would fall to low 50s, I think that would be a buying opportunity.
IS CRUDE OIL GOING TO 80+?If this is the bottom, could be the completion of the right shoulder of a multi-year inverted head and shoulder. Hight of pattern takes us to 80+
Looking for Crude Breakout on News/HeadlinesThe stochastic indicator may be foreshadowing a move up..
Bounce OpportunityLooking for a bounce from the sell off to current support.. RSI and Stoch look like they are about to turn upwards, too.
Weekly Chart with Support and Resistance- Shows Failed BreakdownWeekly light crude oil chart with support and resistance trend lines. RSI and ROC are included, as well.
For context, here is an image of the monthly candles with the same trend lines.
Breakout Being Attempted- Cautiously LongA two year consolidation in crude oil prices may be resolving to the upside. The current RSI resistance trend line is being retested which will be indicative of the direction of future price movement.. Of note, however, is the negative divergence in the ROC.
Price Action is Accelerating UpwardsThe angle of the current pitchfork channel (Modified Schiff) that prices are moving within is larger in magnitude than the angle of the longer-dated, broad pitchfork channel. That may imply that price action is accelerating to the upside. Keep in mind, for this assumption to remain valid, the channels must stay intact.
I have overlaid a Fibonacci Circle study, as well, since it appears to mark significant price movements.
Uptrend Intact Despite False BreakoutPrice has recovered considerably since being rejected at resistance on January 3rd. The current trading channel remains valid, as well. I am looking for a retest of resistance on price in addition to the new resistance trend lines on RSI and ROC. Of note, the MACD is turning positive, too.
On an Intermediate Time Scale I am Long Crude OilA two year bottoming process seems to be coming to an end for crude. There was an attempted breakout on January 3rd, although, it was rejected. I am anticipating a retest of that price level.
FX $USOIL $WTI Algo Worksheet IntraDiagonal trendlines are critical inflection points (blue). If one is breached you can look to pull-back to next diagonal blue trend line 90% of the time. Crude algo intra work sheet 617 AM Dec 2, 16 FX $USOIL $WTI FXCM #Oil $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo twitter.com www.compoundtrading.com
Caution shorts. Support held. Crude algo intra work sheet 334 AMCaution shorts. Support held. Crude algo intra work sheet 334 AM Dec 2, 16 FX $USOIL $WTI FXCM #Oil $USO $UWTI $DWTI $CL_F #OOTT #Algo. @EPICtheAlgo Diagonal trend line (blue), Fib line (green) and alpha algo line (red dotted) all held.
Upper Fib ext testing now. Calculating upper targets now. Crude Upper Fib ext testing now. Calculating upper targets now. Crude algo work sheet FX $USOIL $WTI #oil $CL_F $USO $UCO $UWTI $DWTI #OOTT #algo
2016 WTI YTD with 4 prior years to study seasonalityVertical lines represent EIA report dates.
August date was selected for approximation of low date.
A projection is extended from 2016 moving average
WTI over the next few months, some ideasMultiple layers of channels are shown, multiple wedges, hinged around EIA reports - other major unanticipated supply disruption or macro-economic news, such as Brexit, clearly would throw spanners into the works.
A few patterns to note.
1. Channels - regression
a. Major upward from February
b. Sub-Major sideways - call it May
c. Minor Near term channel from 6/27
2. Wedges shown in black.
- 3 small within 1 larger green outlined
3. Fibo on the May horizontal channel
7/6 - in reaction to supply risks dwindling, API report we will break out of wedge to test larger one to upside or downside - I anticipate odds are downside
7/7 If API tests 46.50 again, the EIA has the opportunity to complete the 3-drives and break the larger wedge to the upside, touching the top of the May channel at 52.5 over a week period.
Will watch this as it progresses and update if I can figure out how to update a published idea rather than keep publishing new updates!
A potential path for the next few weeks of WTI CrudeA plan that incorporates Brexit
Extend gains on positive EIA report to 52.4
Brexit Remain vote push to 56
Brexit Leave vote drop to 47
1st week of July, assuming summer season draw downs are over, start to see oil decline through to mid August.
September, anticipate a rate hike.
Price begins to rise slowly though december
WTI - big picture If there are no large surprise events (more dramatic supply disruptions), then the next hard resistance is 50.93 and the price may break the wedge or move forward.
The Fed decision on USD is the next big event and not likely to have any impact on the movement in the wedge.
The Brexit vote is the next big event on June 23. That will either accelerate the movement to the top of the wedge (Vote NO) or cause a break out (Vote YES - the USD rises).
At some point in mid to late August we should retrace back to 38-42 and trade within a range until next year January/February when we should begin breaking new highs.
WTI Long term.. updatedMirror reflection updated showing two potential paths - one a correction before a new high, the other a new high then a correction back to 43, then 37-38, then a gradual climb back up beyond 50
WTI projection using 2hr candles and reflectionThis is a reflection of the downward trend over time - the uptrend is running ahead of the rate of it's downward movement in the past.
