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Oil Attempts a ReboundOil bottomed out at 81.30, as expected. Oil prices are generally trending downward off recession fears and china coronavirus lock downs . We are seeing a small pivot off lower levels and an attempt to regain 85.55, which should provide strong resistance as it was a low tested several times earlier last week. We are starting to see strong resistance as we approach this level. If we break through we could make a run for the $90's. If we retrace, then $81.30 should provide support again.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
The Two Main Factors Effecting Oil PricesOil saw support at $85.55, confirmed by many green triangles on the KRI. As anticipated, we saw a nice pivot there, bouncing back just below $90. We are currently testing $88.74, but a red triangle on the KRI is confirming resistance. Recession fears, bolstered by the non farm payrolls headline miss, will likely weigh on the price, however supply side shortages will likely keep prices above $85.55 for now. Our level at $90.06 is likely to be a ceiling for the time being.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Oil Hits our TargetOil has tumbled, giving up the $90's entirely, and plummetting deeper into the $80's. We have breached $90.06, and several levels after that in the upper $80's. In particular, $87.21, our target from yesterday, was hit exactly (to the tick) and is currently providing support confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. If we plummet further, our next target is $85.55. If we can manage to pivot, we should be able to test the $90's again, with $90.06 to provide resistance.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Can Oil Test $100 Again?Oil has rebounded into the $90's after establishing a solid value area in the high $80's. It seemed like prices were finally coming down, when we saw a nice spike back to the $90's, reestablishing value above $92.03. We are currently testing $95.24, but a red triangle on the KRI may indicate that we are running into resistance. If we can break through then the next target is $96.88. After that, we are clear to attempt the $100's again. If we reject current levels, we should see support at the base of the $90 handle.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Struggles to Recover $90Oil seems to have bottomed out at $85.55. We saw good support from green triangles on the KRI, and a subsequent pivot back to the high $80's. We are now just below $90, with $90.06 in particular being the level to break before attaining higher levels. We should see significant resistance there. The Kovach OBV is bearish and keeps pressing lower. If we fail to test the $90's, then $85.55 should provide support, with the next support levels below including $84.75 and $83.76.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Regains the Mid-$90'sOil has finally broken out, solidly reestablishing the $90's after spending a few days in the high $80's. We are still bound by $95.24, which has been our target and area of anticipated resistance since oil was in the $87's. We are seeing some red triangles on the KRI confirming strong resistance here. The Kovach OBV has picked up a bit, but it remains to be seen if we have enough strength to punch through the mid $90's and head back to the $100's. If we are able to break through $95.24, then $96.88 is the last level we must break before the $100's. If so, we should face resistance at $100 and $101.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Presses LowerOil has fallen deeper into the high $80's following a selloff that broke monthly lows. We had very strong support at $92.03, and appeared to be seeing a double bottom forming, but the selloff knocked oil back a peg, smashing through multiple technical levels below in a persistence selloff that has taken us back to support at $87.21. We are seeing a green triangle forming on the KRI, but the selloff does seem persistent. We should have further support from $85.55 and $84.75. If we see a relief rally, the $90's should provide resistance.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
Can Oil Regain the $100's?Oil made an attempt at higher levels, hitting both of our targets at $100 then $101 before retracing back to the $90's. The Kovach OBV is gradually trending upward, so we are seeing a bull bias. But the $100's seem to be a hard upper bound for now. Currently, we are seeing good support around $95.24, a familiar level. We may also be seeing a bull wedge forming. Together, this suggests we may be making another attempt at higher levels. We will need to clear $100 and $101 before considering higher levels, the next target being $106. If we retrace further, then $92.03, and $90.06 should provide support.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Will Oil Test $100 Again??Oil has edged back down to support after topping out at $100, a strong psychological and technical level. As predicted here, we are finding support at our technical level of $95.24, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. Support is looking weak, and we could break down further. The next level below and target for support is $92.03. After that we could test the base of the $90 handle at $90.06. If we pivot off current levels we could make a run for $100 again.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
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Oil Hovers Under $100Oil has edged upward, but is meeting lots of resistance in the high $90's, just below the target of $100. We edged past $100 briefly, only to retrace back to comfort at the base of the $99 handle at the time of this writing. The Kovach OBV is trending up, but appears weak, suggesting we will need more momentum to break through $100 definitively. Many red triangles on the KRI are signalling resistance here, so anticipate a rejection back to $95.24, or even $92.03. If we are able to break through the low $100's there is a vacuum zone to the next target of $106.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
Oil Gives Up the $100'sOil appears to have bottomed out at our exact level of $92.03, with a wick extending to $90.06 as we predicted last Friday. We were then able to pivot back up to the mid $90's, meeting swift resistance at $96.88. We have several red triangles on the KRI signifying resistance around this price area, just before $100. Sub $100 prices will surely be welcome to consumers world wide, after soaring oil prices have hit relative highs in the $100's just a few months back. The Kovach OBV has bottomed out, which suggests that we will need strong momentum to come through to break current resistance. if so, $100 and $101 are the next targets. Othwerwise, we can expect to test $92.03 and $90.06 again.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Digs into the Lower $90'sOil dipped down further into the $90's, with a wick touching $92.03, as we have noted in these reports as the next level of support. We do appear to be pivoting nicely back to $95.24, but are bounded by $96.88. The Kovach OBV appears bearish, but does seem to have bottomed out, suggesting potentially that oil has reached a floor. If so, we expect it to shoot back up to the $100's. If not, we could retest $92.03. The next level after that is $90.06, which is our last technical level at the base of the $90 handle, before we dig into the $80's.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
🚨 Oil Tests the $90's; Read More for our Trading Idea 🚨Oil caved through support at the base of the $100's, making its way down to $95.24. We expected this value to hold as a floor price, as discussed yesterday, and we just barely broke through, with a low just above our level at $92.03. We immediately equilibrated back to $95.24, and are currently testing the next level above at $96.88. A red triangle on the KRI confirms resistance here. We appear to be forming a small inverse head and shoulders pattern, suggesting a strong possibility that we will correct back to the $100's. A long position here in futures, or oil related stocks such as XOM or ETF's may be profitable. A stop loss at $95.24 with a profit target set conservatively at $100 may provide a 2:1 return on risk.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Maintains Broad RangeOil rejected 113, and came crashing down through support at 106. It penetrated the vacuum zone between 101 and 106, but has since found support around 104, confirmed by green triangles on the KRI. We have subsequently seen a pivot back to 108, but appear to be finding resistance confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. If momentum continues then the next target is 111. It is likely that we will begin to equilibrate in the broad range between 101 and 113, so watch these levels for a potential mean reversion trade.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Another Breakout in Sight for Oil??Oil has gotten support from just above $116, which we anticipated to hold as a lower bound. It hit our target of $122 before a technical retracement brought us back to lower levels. We knew this would only be transient and sure enough, oil is back to relative highs, just a few ticks below our level at $122.95. The Kovach OBV is still strong, so there is no reason to expect a retracement past $116. We may play the range a bit, so watch $122.95 for resistance. If we are able to break it the next level is $126.50.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Hits Our Target!! 🥳 What's Next?? 🚀Oil has broken out from the bull wedge it was forming all this week. We have broken past the upper bound at $120 and have hit our target at $122.95 to the tick. We met immediate resistance here confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI before retracing a bit, but the Kovach OBV seems strong so we do not expect much in the way of a retracement. If we do, $116 should provide support. It is likely we will see some consolidation here, but if we are able to break out from this high at $122.95, our next target is $126.50.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy