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Oil Still Incredibly StrongOil has blasted through our profit target of $122. It seems that we have to update our profit targets for oil on a daily basis. After it smashed $122, a wick made it as high as $130 before retracing. It then fell to $116, where a green triangle on the KRI confirmed support. Currently, we are seeing perhaps a bull wedge forming with an upper bound at $122. If we see more momentum come through, then $132 is our next target. With the West in the process of banning Russian oil imports, we have no reason to believe prices will drop, however $110 and $106 are the next levels below to provide support.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
2
Dragon Head Pattern in Oil!! #OOTTOil has topped out at $116, before retracing to $106. This is 1000 tick spread which is formidable, even for oil. But that is to be expected with this rally of historic proportions. We appear to be forming a possible dragon head pattern, and are currently exhibiting volatility between $106, and $110. The Kovach OBV has been meteoric lately, but has since arched over with the pull back. we don't have any reason to expect much of a retracement, but there is a vacuum zone below to $100. We must first break $116 before considering our next profit target of $122.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Prices Soar, Next Target?? #OOTTOil has continued its tremendous ascent. We are well into the $100 handle at this point, with little in the way to suggest that it may turn back. We did see some resistance at our intermediary target of $110, but a strong burst of momentum smashed through this target and hit our next profit target of $116.61 to the tick. The next profit target is at $122, which brings us closer to all time highs at $147, which we last saw in 2008. The Kovach OBV is still very strong, without even the slightest hint of leveling off. However, at some point a technical retracement is to be expected, and if so, $110 or $106 should provide support.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
2
Oil Soars Past $100, Next Targets?? #OOTTOil has soared and smashed through even our most aggressive profit targets. We smashed through 106, then hit 110, before finally coming up for air. A brief retracement appears to be finding support just above 106, so it does not appear that the rally is over, or even showing signs of pause. The Kovach OBV is extremely strong right now, as one would expect, but it has not showed teh slightest intent on leveling off, so it would be FOMO to buy at these highs. Our next target, set from Fibonacci Extension Levels is 116. We have created a giant vacuum zone below, so watch out if 106 does not hold. The next target below is 101.46, then 100.00. After that, we will surely find support in the 90's, but we aren't likely to see such low prices for now.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Supply Concerns Lift OilOil has blasted off from yesterday's levels where it gapped up to the mid 90's. We found support at 95.24, and smashed through the next level at 96.88. After that, we made run back to $100, but are facing some resistance before that. The world is rearing from Russian supply fears, as it is in the top five oil producing countries (number two in 2022 right after the US by some sources, see here and here ). There is little in the way of fundamental data to suggest lower oil prices. However, if do see a technical retracement, then 95.24 should hold, if not, there is a vacuum zone back to 92.03. Our next target is $100, then $101.46.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
2
Oil Attempts to Reclaim the $90'sOil has dipped sharply, as we anticipated yesterday. We have tested 95.24 several times, but red triangles on the KRI have confirmed resistance at every attempt. Subsequently, a strong selloff took oil prices back to support at 88.74, the exact level we called out in our reports yesterday. Also, as we anticipated, we are seeing support here, with an attempt to regain the 90's. We are currently finding support just below our level at 90.06. The Kovach OBV is still strong, but does appear to be leveling off suggesting that we may be in a sideways corrective pattern between 88.74 and 95.21. If so, we anticipate prices to pick up and solidify the 90's again. If not, we will have further support from 87.21 and 85.55.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Oil Retraces from HighsOil has retraced sharply from highs at 95.24. A red triangle on the KRI has confirmed prohibitive resistance and we have sharply retraced, initially finding support at the next level below at 92.03. From here, we made a run for the next level below at 90.06, but have found support just above it. We have currently made an attempt to break past 92.03 again, but momentum appears to be waning. The Kovach OBV is still pretty strong, but we could be encountering overbought conditions. If so, anticipate a sideways correction around current levels, or a retracement down to 90.06 or 88.74. If momentum picks up, we will need to break 95.24 before we can achieve the next target of 96.88.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Hits Our Next Profit Target!!Oil has reached our target of 95.24, where a red triangle on the KRI confirmed resistance, followed by a retracement. We are seeing good support at 92.03, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is still very bullish, with the brief retracement failing to budge it. Thus we have no indication of a reversal any time soon, and are still bullish of oil. It does appear to be looking top heavy, so we can expect a retracement soon, with 90.06 the first candidate for support below. Our next target is 96.88, when momentum resumes.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Sideways Correction in Oil, with Bull BiasOil has retraced from the 90's to 88.74, as we anticipated in our reports. We are extending the sideways correction that started forming after we rejected relative highs in the 92's, currently inching up above 90.00, just barely. The Kovach OBV is still strong, but has started to level off as oil ranges. There isn't much data to support a further correction, especially after the IEA has stated that the market is 'tight' but if we selloff further, we should see support at 85.55. If we see more momentum for a bull run, then 92.03 must be broken once more before we can consider another new relative high.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Oil Finds SupportOil has found support at 88.74, and prices did not last in the high 80's for long. We saw an immediate pivot from this level and have solidified the 90's once again, breaking through 90'06, our next technical level, with ease. We should see some ranging from here between 90.06 or 88.74 and highs or our next target of 92.03. The Kovach OBV is still very strong, but we anticipate some further sideways correction before new relative highs. No data suggests any doubt to the overall strength of this bull rally.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Retraces, But Long Term Momentum Still StrongOil has retraced a bit further after a sharp rejection from highs. This is a reasonable technical retracement, bound to happen after such a prolific rally from the low 80's within less than month. We are seeing support at 88.74, confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is still strong, but has leveled off. This is another sign that the price action we are seeing is likely a corrective impulse and not a reversal. In the event of the latter, we would see the Kovach OBV dip sharply, registering strong bear momentum. If current levels don't hold, 87.21 is the next target, then 85.55. If momentum picks up, then we should be able to reestablish the 90's, with 90.06 being the first target.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Rallies, Smashing our Profit Targets!!Oil has rallied significantly, smashing through our target of 90.06, and solidifying the 90 handle. We are within inches of our next target at 92.03, with a red triangle on the KRI confirming some resistance just below it. The Kovach OBV is ripping with this rally, demonstrating the incredible strength of this rally. Our next target of 95.24 is garnered from Fibonacci extension levels, because we have simply run out of technical levels at this point and are in new territory as far as our analysis with the product. We are well on our way to $100 oil, a price range we maintain will be hit by Q2.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
$100 Oil By Summer?? 😱Oil is ranging in a sideways correction bounded from above by our target and highs of 88.74, and below by 87.21. We have seen support from this latter level as confirmed by a green triangle on the KRI, and a subsequent pivot back to attempt highs again. Currently, we are within inches of the high at 88.74, and the Kovach OBV has picked up notably. If we are able to break through, then 90.06 is the next target. If we are able to break out of this range, then $90 oil seems a reasonable target, as we have every reason to anticipate it will hit $100 by the summer.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
1
Crude Oil Approaches Key 90 Mark, but RSI Warrants CautionCrude oil is showing multiple Bearish RSI divergences, but the fundamentals -- which take precedence (IMO) -- e.g., OPEC spare capacity, Ukraine, increasing demand, etc., appear increasingly bullish. EIA inventories due out this week show an expected build of 962k barrels, according to Bloomberg. That would mark the third week of storage increases for WTI, but Cushing, Oklahoma, stocks have seen a corresponding reduction. If prices continue to increase, the 90 psychological level may offer up some resistance.
TVC:USOIL
by Thomaswestw
2
Oil Tops OutOil has topped off just below our target at 88.74. We appear to be equilibrating in a sideways correction about 87.21. It looks like we are establishing a floor just above 86, in the vacuum zone between 85.55, and 87.21. Volatility has consolidated considerably, so anticipate a breakout either way. We could make another run for 88.74. The Kovach OBV is still strong, but has started to arc downwards with the ambivalence. This might signal a further correction and if so, watch for support at 85.55, then 84.75.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Oil Sells Off, Hits Our TargetsOil has finally taken a breather off profit taking and a build in US oil inventories. A wick topped out at our target at 87.21 and we sold off sharply from there, smashing through several levels in the 84 and 83 handle, where we finally found support at 83.21, the exact level we noted in yesterday's report. We appear to be recovering nicely, attempting to establish value around 83.76. The Kovach OBV has registered the selloff, arching down sharply from its bull run over the past week. There is a vacuum zone below to 82.13, so if the selloff continues, this will be the first target. After that, we have 81.30 and 80.70 as the next targets for support. If we are able to reestablish momentum, then 84.75, and 85.55 are the next targets above.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Why we Won't See Lower Oil PricesOil has started to show signs of weakness at highs. We have smashed through to new relative highs coming just shy of our target of 87.21, where a red triangle on the KRI has confirmed a top. Currently we are forming a consolidation pattern, resembling a bull flag. We appear to be consolidating at 85.76, which was once our target. We are finding good support here, but in the event of a retracement, 84.75, 83.76, or 83.21 should hold. If another wave of momentum comes through, then 87.21 is the next target. The Kovach OBV is still strong, and there is nothing fundamental to go against this rally.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
2
Higher Highs in OilOil keeps edging out new relative highs. We have broken past resistance in the 83's and solidly established the 84's. Currently, we are testing 84.75, which was a target set from Fibonacci Extension levels. Our final target remains 85.55. If oil keeps up the bull trend, this should easily be solidified this week. New relative highs are closer together, suggesting that momentum may be running out and it might be time for a technical retracemnt. But there is nothing fundamental to suggest that the rally is letting up any time soon. If we do see a purely technical retracement, then we have levels in the 83's to provide support, then 82.13. If not, our next target is 85.55.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil to Breakout Higher??Oil has made a run for relative highs again. It has reached our target of 83.21 again, and looks to be testing this level for another breakout. Our next target is 83.76, then 84.75. Watch for some resistance at 83.21, confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. The Kovach OBV is still strong, but has dipped slightly as oil stutters at relative highs. It does seem poised for a breakout, but if we do see a retracement, 82.13 and 81.30 are the next levels below to provide support. If we don't breakout to higher levels today, then we anticipate support at the levels mentioned and for it to maintain a sideways correction.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Testing HighsOil has strengthened on stronger demand prospects. We have hit our price target at 83.21, as we discussed yesterday. Two red triangles on the KRI suggest that this is an upper bound for now, but if the bull rally continues, we could easily break through to the next price target, which have gathered from Fibonacci Extension levels at 83.76. The Kovach OBV is still very strong, although it may be starting to level off. We are seeing strong support from 82.13, confirmed by two green triangles on the KRI, but if we retrace further, we should see further support from 81.30, 80.70, and 80.00.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Recovers $80Oil has blasted up from support in the high 70 handle to attain $80 again. We have risen past resistance at 80.00, and have already broken through several levels of resistance in the 80 handle. Currently, we are hovering around 81.63, just above the nearest level at 81.30. We are holding a narrow range, which is understandable after breaking through to the 80's which have provided significant resistance thus far. If we retrace, then 80.00 should provide support, but we have several levels in the high 70's if this does not hold, with 77.56 being a floor for now. The next target is 83.21 if we catch another rally. The Kovach OBV barely dipped off the retracement to the 70's, and has regained full bull strength.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Solidifies Value just Under $80Oil has slid from the 80's, dipping all the way to our level at 77.56, before recovering. We have made a run for $80 again, falling just short of this level confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI. We have felt out lows, at 77.56, and this might be the bottom of a new value area forming between 77.56 and 80.00. If so, expect oil to remain range-bound here. The Kovach OBV has gradually rescinded from highs, and has bottomed out, which may suggest a divergence with the current attempt at 80.00, another factor suggesting 80.00 is an upper bound for now.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy