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Oil Back to $80!!Oil has blasted back to the 80's, one of the only asset classes in our reports that is showing some strong bull conviction. We rejected 78.90 and returned to the range that we were holding in the 77's briefly, before getting a boost back through 78.90, to claim the 80 handle once more. Currently, we are seeing the price potentially top out for now, with two red triangles on the KRI just below 80.70. The Kovach OBV has leveled off which suggests that we have reached a top for now. Anticipate some ranging or perhaps another retracement before another run for higher levels in the 80's with 81.30 the next target. If we retrace, 78.90 should be considered the floor for now.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
1
Oil Maintains the RangeOil has trekked downward from its rally yesterday. The rally was paltry with respect to what oil has been able to muster with proper buying momentum. We are still largely in a broad sideways corrective phase. The level 72.99 appeared to be a top for oil, as we identified yesterday. Currently, we are stabilizing around support in roughly the middle of the range, at 71.00, a technical and psychological level. The Kovach OBV is still relatively flat, and has arched over with the selloff, which suggests that if we don't find support here, that we could test further levels on the downside, including 70.01 and 69.67. These levels have provided strong support in the past, and are the lower bound of this corrective phase. If we take these levels out, then 68.96 is the next level of strong support, the neckline of our inverse head and shoulders pattern, from which we originally broke out to higher levels in the 70's. If this neckline can't hold, then it's a very bearish sign, and we should easily be able to test lower levels in the mid 60's, like 66.00, a strong technical and psychological level and the low of our second shoulder.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Oil Trends Lower, Rejecting Relative HighsOil has drifted further down, but has found support at 70.00, a psychological and technical level. We are finding some meager support here, and have started to drift back upwards. Oil is in a broad corrective phase from the rally we saw after the inverse head and shoulders breakout. The technicals are looking pretty stagnant for oil at the moment, with the Kovach OBV flat, and the Kovach Chande oscillatory. We should continue to see value form in the range between 68.96 (the neckline of our inverse H&S pattern) and relative highs at 72.99.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Inverse Head and Shoulders in Oil??Oil is still feeling global demand woes and remains in the high 60 handle. We are seeing an inverse head and shoulders pattern with a neckline at 68.96. The second shoulder has yet to fully form so avoid trading this preemptively. If we break out, we could easily hit 72.99, a relative high. If we reject it, then this would be a bearish sign, and we could easily see lows of 62.80 again. The Kovach OBV is still very bearish, and perhaps oversold. But is does appear to be letting up a bit, perhaps suggesting a relief rally may be in store soon.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
1
Can OPEC Counter Oil's Decline??Oil has edged up as OPEC has pledged to compensate for demand woes. We are seeing resistance from 69.67, a relative high. Several red triangles on the KRI are popping up on the chart, indicating we are running into some resistance. The Kovach OBV is still bearish, to the point we are severely oversold, so a relief rally could easily take us 200 ticks higher, though 72.99, the next relative high, should provide significant resistance. From below, 62.80, the relative low, should be considered a min lower bound for now.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
1
Global Demand Woes Impact OilOil is still very bearish but does appear to have settled for now, finding support at our level at 64.86. We have gotten a small boost here but are seeing some resistance as confirmed by a red triangle on the KRI just above 66.84. We are currently in roughly the midpoint of a range extending from 64.86 to 69.67. The Kovach OBV is extremely bearish, and starting to look over sold. But with global demand worries due to the new Omicron strain of the Coronavirus, we don't expect a rally any time soon. That being said we could see a relief rally potentially as high as the 70's, with 72.99 a particularly auspicious target.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
1
Demnd Issues Hit OilOil had a brief attempt at a rebound in the 70 handle, before crashing right back down to the 60's. We alerted you yesterday that the relative low was somewhat auspicious at 67.91. This is exactly where we are hanging on by a thread at the moment. The Kovach OBV is solidly bearish, and fears over the Omicron variant have weighed on demand considerations. If we break down further into the 60 handle, then 66.77, 66.00, and 65.61 should provide support. If we see a rally, then 72.99 is the level we need to break before we are able to claw back the 70 handle.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
1
Crude resistance plays - now for Support to show its hand $CLI had warned of a pullback in Crude in early-November. and this comes after a series of breakouts that I've been following on the long side, going back to May Earlier in November, WTI had run into a massive Fibonacci level and prices were very stretched. It was the type of trend that gets funny comments on Twitter if you try to fade. But, good resistance is good resistance, and that's precisely what's played out in WTI over the past month, with some help from a few bearish drivers like Covid variants. At this point, prices are starting to test support at a prior resistance zone. This zone carved the highs for 2019, 2020 and for a few months earlier this year, 2021. I'm following this zone from 64.31-67.19, taken from a couple of longer-term fibonacci retracements. The topside of the zone was about a nickel off of last week's close 67.14 v/s 67.19. I had just written an article that discusses how I'm looking to operate around this move. While this presents long-term support potential, the short-term trend is decisively beairsh, and with sellers taking out the 70 handle again this morning, it doesn't look like the low is in yet. Key note - we're less than 2 days from the close of the month and the monthly bar is currently showing as a bearish engulf. If it closes that way, could be a rocky finish to the year for oil prices.
NYMEX:CL2!
by JStanleyFX
1
Two Factors Impacting Oil PricesOil has plummeted over continued issues on the supply and demand side. The Omicron variant of the coronavirus has impacted demand considerations as global governments consider yet another wave of lockdowns. We smashed through the 70 handle, but found support at 67.91. After a green triangle on the KRI confirmed support, oil was able to regain the 70 handle, and is currently hovering just below our level at 72.25. We do appear to be witnessing a bull wedge forming, but the Kovach OBV is still very bearish, despite the relief rally. This suggests that we aren't quite ready to see higher levels yet, but 72.99 is the next target if we see a bid. From below, there is a cluster of levels to provide support, with 67.91 to be the floor for now.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
1
Oil Attempts a RallyOil has rallied, breaking several resistance levels in the 76, and 77 handles. We have tested 78.90, but appear to be rejecting it. There are several red triangles on the KRI here, indicating strong resistance. Currently, we are in the middle of the range between 77.56 and 78.90. The Kovach OBV has leveled off suggesting we are seeking to establish value here. If we continue to rally and break 78.90, then the next target is 80.00, a significant psychological and technical level. From below 77.56, 76.93, and 76.16 should provide support.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
Oil Testing Lows Again, What to Expect??Oil is pressing lower of reports of increased supply and weaker demand. We are currently testing a very important psychological and technical level at 80.00. We are seeing several green triangles here at 80.00 which is suggests strong support. If we are able to break down from here, then there is a vacuum zone below to 77.56. We have several technical levels above including 80.70, 81.30 and 82.13 which will all be targets if we can get a lift from 80.00. The Kovach OBV is pretty flat, so we will need to see momentum come through either way to determine oil's next move.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
1
Oil Clinging to LowsOil has dipped to the lower bound of its broad range in the 80 handle. We have broken through a series of levels in the low 80's, and are clinging onto 80.00 by a thread. We do have a series of green triangles on the KRI suggesting support here, but the Kovach OBV is dipping suggesting that we are still quite weak. If 80.00 does not hold, there is a vacuum zone to 77.56. If we catch support at 80.00, then 80.70, 81.30, and 82.13 are all targets to consider from above.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
1
Oil Gains Strength After API DrawOil has regained strength, rebounding nearly to highs again. We have blasted through all levels of resistance in the 82's and 83's, and are currently just below the high at 85.55. We seem to be hovering around 84.75, which has been tested and rejected before, therefore we are adding it as a new technical level. Oil appears to be in a sideways corrective pattern for the longer term, ranging from the high 70's to 84.75. If we are able to break out then 87.21 is the next target.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
1