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GBP/NZD Analysis: Market Uncertainty Amid Key Technical LevelsThe analysis of GBP/NZD shows recent volatility, with a close at 2.20571 on February 19, 2025, slightly down from the previous day, indicating a phase of market indecision. The previous trend saw moderate progression from February 16 to 18, supported by an increase in UK GDP, which temporarily strengthened the Pound. However, the absence of new economic data left the pair exposed to market sentiment, contributing to the decline on February 19. From a technical perspective, the chart highlights a strong resistance area between 2.21770 and 2.22180, a level that has rejected the price multiple times, suggesting that without a decisive breakout above this zone, the bullish trend may weaken. Conversely, a significant support area is located around 2.17616, a level that has already provided a positive reaction, pushing the price back up. The current price action shows a consolidation phase between these two key levels, with a recent structure of higher lows that could indicate an accumulation attempt before a potential bullish breakout. If the price manages to break above the upper resistance decisively, the next target would be around the recent highs in the 2.24000 area. On the other hand, a break below the 2.17616 support could trigger a decline towards the next key level at 2.15000, where an interesting liquidity zone is present. The combination of the recent positive GDP data and a more cautious market sentiment leaves the pair in a state of uncertainty, with a key reaction expected in the coming days depending on the holding or breaking of the main technical levels.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GOLD| Approaching Historic Highs Amid Geopolitical UncertaintyThe analysis of XAU/USD highlights a strong bullish trend, closing at approximately $2,939.41 on February 20, 2025, marking a 0.23% increase from the previous day. The recent high of $2,946.83 on February 19 indicates continued positive momentum, driven by geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and fears of potential trade wars, all of which have strengthened gold’s status as a safe-haven asset. The current momentum has pushed prices toward historic levels, with the potential to surpass $3,000, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and declining U.S. yields. The chart shows a key resistance zone around $2,960, with a potential retracement towards the $2,880 area, identified as the first major support level. The current price action suggests a possible pullback before another breakout attempt. If the price consolidates above $2,900, it could accelerate towards new highs, while a break below $2,880 may drive the price toward the next support level around $2,840. The overall outlook remains bullish, with investor interest fueled by global uncertainties and the increasing demand for gold as a hedge against economic risks.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USD/JPY: Bearish Momentum and Key Support TestThe USD/JPY analysis as of February 18, 2025, shows a clear bearish structure, with the price breaking below key support levels, particularly around 152.70, which aligns with the 200-day moving average. The February 17 close at 151.456 confirms the downward trend after the recent high of 154.79 on February 12, highlighting the weakness of the US dollar against the strengthening Japanese yen. The yen’s appreciation was driven by Japan’s unexpectedly strong GDP data, which showed an annualized growth of 2.8%, far exceeding expectations and fueling speculation of a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan. In contrast, the US dollar has been under pressure due to weak retail sales data and a general lack of bullish catalysts. The chart setup highlights a key demand zone between 150.50 and 151.00, where the price is showing an initial reaction, suggesting a possible technical rebound. However, the overall structure remains weak, and unless the price can stabilize above 152.50-153.00, the risk of further downside remains high. The next significant resistance lies between 154.50 and 156.00, an area with concentrated sell orders and a potential reversal point in case of recovery. Conversely, a break below 150.50 would open the way toward 148.00 and even lower levels, with a critical support zone around 146.00. The short-term trading range could remain between 151.00 and 155.00, with strong dependence on upcoming macroeconomic developments, particularly statements from the Bank of Japan and economic updates from the United States.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/JPY: Uncertainty and Bearish PressuresGBP/JPY has shown a volatile trend in recent sessions, with a combination of ups and downs highlighting a phase of uncertainty. The last closing on February 15, 2025, at 191.618 marks the beginning of a bearish trend after the doji on February 14. This movement reflects a complex dynamic, where macroeconomic and technical factors play a decisive role in price direction. The recent rebound was supported by positive UK GDP data, which helped the pound recover from bearish pressures over the past months. Notably, on February 12, a reversal of the bearish trend occurred, with GBP/JPY starting to regain ground due to an improvement in market sentiment. Additionally, the strengthening of US inflation negatively impacted the Japanese yen, pushing GBP/JPY up by 1.22% around February 12, driven by a weaker yen following the increased strength of the US dollar. However, despite these positive elements, the Bank of England’s monetary policy has introduced uncertainty, with a dovish stance fueling pressure on the pound. The interest rate cut has raised concerns about further depreciation, negatively affecting GBP/JPY. Added to this is the earlier decline in early February, triggered by disappointing UK economic data and expectations of further BoE interventions, which contributed to a widespread bearish sentiment. From a technical perspective, the price is currently in a consolidation phase between 187.610 and 193.120, with a structure suggesting a possible expansion of volatility in the coming weeks. The key resistance at 193.120 represents a critical obstacle for a potential continuation of the bullish trend, while support at 187.610 remains the main level to watch in case of renewed bearish pressure. A breakout above the 193.50 threshold could confirm further pound strengthening, while a break below 188.00 could reopen scenarios of weakness. With a combination of technical and macroeconomic factors in play, GBP/JPY’s trend remains subject to upcoming BoE decisions and the evolution of global economic conditions, making it crucial to monitor upcoming economic releases to determine the market’s direction.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
EUR/USD Faces Key Resistance Amid Liquidity Grab ExpectationsEUR/USD is undergoing a pullback after reaching a one-month high of 1.0528, closing at 1.04658 on February 24, marking a 0.22% decline from the previous day. The euro's recent strength was driven by post-election stability in Germany, where centrist parties formed a coalition government, boosting market confidence. However, bullish momentum has stalled near key resistance levels around 1.0530 and 1.0560, with the pair struggling to sustain gains above the 100-day simple moving average. From a technical standpoint, the price is approaching a significant supply zone, where a liquidity grab could occur before a potential downside move. Resistance in this area aligns with broader concerns over Germany's economic outlook and coalition negotiations, which could weaken the euro’s appeal. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, despite recent weakness due to declining consumer confidence, remains in a favorable position for a short-term recovery, adding further pressure on EUR/USD. If the pair fails to break through resistance, a rejection could trigger a decline toward 1.0400, with further downside potential extending to 1.0283. Conversely, if buyers manage to push past the liquidity zone, the next upside targets lie at 1.0530 and 1.0560.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD: Bullish Momentum Faces Key ResistanceGBP/USD has reached its highest point since mid-December at 1.2690, primarily driven by the weakness of the US dollar. The pair has shown strong momentum, and as long as it holds above the key support at 1.2520, analysts see potential for further upside toward 1.2725. Positive UK economic data, including better-than-expected retail sales and inflation figures, have reinforced a bullish outlook for the pound. However, minor retracements have been observed, with slight declines following recent gains, such as the 0.05% drop on February 24. Market volatility remains a factor, with geopolitical tensions and fluctuating commodity prices impacting the dollar’s strength. From a technical standpoint, the price is currently testing a resistance zone while approaching key moving averages, which could act as dynamic resistance. The presence of supply zones above suggests that the pair could face selling pressure before a potential continuation higher. If the price fails to sustain above the resistance area, a retracement toward the 1.2520 level and possibly deeper into the 1.2400 region could materialize. Despite the recent bullish momentum, caution is warranted due to broader market uncertainties, and future movements will depend on economic indicators from both the UK and the US, as well as overall market sentiment.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/GBP: Key Support Test Amid Bearish PressureThe analysis of EUR/GBP as of February 24, 2025, presents an interesting technical outlook. The price is testing a key support area around 0.8297 after a modest recovery from the 0.8271 lows. The current setup suggests a potential reaction in this zone, with the possibility of a technical rebound towards higher levels or a more significant bearish breakdown. From a technical perspective, several key areas stand out: the upper resistance in the 0.8440-0.8460 range represents a critical level for a bullish recovery, while the lower support around 0.8265-0.8240 could act as a catalyst for further downside momentum if broken. Moving average analysis indicates persistent bearish pressure, with both the 50 and 200-period moving averages sloping downward. This reinforces the idea that, despite recent rebounds, the dominant trend remains bearish in the medium term. From a macroeconomic standpoint, expectations regarding the UK and Eurozone economic outlook are shaping the pair's direction. UK inflation is showing signs of recovery, providing some support for the pound, but uncertainties related to economic growth and Bank of England policies could hinder a sustained strengthening of the British currency. On the other hand, the Eurozone is facing challenges linked to growth stagnation, and the ECB may maintain an accommodative policy to stimulate the economy. These factors create an unstable balance that could lead to heightened volatility in the coming days. Technical forecasts suggest two possible scenarios: a temporary rebound towards 0.8340-0.8360 before another test of the lows or a direct break below 0.8265, which could open the door for a decline towards 0.8240-0.8220.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EURNZD: Key Resistance at 1.8430 and Rejection from HighsAs of February 14, 2025, the EURNZD pair is once again testing the key resistance zone around 1.8430 after showing a clear rejection in previous sessions. The price has reacted from the support zone at 1.8235, which continues to act as a strong defense level for buyers. However, the strong rejection from the weekly resistance area suggests a possible new phase of weakness. Technical analysis indicates interaction with key moving averages, with the price rebounding from the mid-term moving average but struggling to break through the upper liquidity zone. If the market stays below 1.8435, it could trigger a decline towards 1.8235, and if broken, a further extension towards 1.8100. Conversely, a decisive close above 1.8435 could open the way for a breakout attempt towards 1.8500. The macroeconomic context remains a key factor to monitor, with the strength of the euro and the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s policy likely to influence the future direction of the pair.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Brent Declines Amid Rising Inventories and Peace HopesOn February 13, 2025, Brent crude fell by 0.9% to $74.50 per barrel, driven by expectations of a potential peace deal between Ukraine and Russia, which could ease supply disruptions caused by sanctions. Additionally, U.S. crude inventories increased for the third consecutive week by 4.1 million barrels, surpassing analysts' forecasts. These factors, combined with new U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum, have reinforced the bearish sentiment in the oil market.
RUS:BR1!Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/JPY: Persistent Bearish Pressure Amid Recovery AttemptsThe GBP/JPY pair has shown recent volatility, attempting a rebound to 188.00 on February 10, breaking a three-day losing streak after hitting the weekly low at 187.00. The Bank of England’s dovish monetary policy, including the recent rate cut, has worsened the bearish sentiment on the pound, while downward revisions in the UK's growth forecasts have further weakened the GBP. Despite recovery attempts above 190.00, economic uncertainty and the central bank's negative outlook keep the risk of further declines high. The price is near a daily FVG, with potential liquidity grabs within and around the 0.62% Fibonacci level before resuming its downward movement.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAG/USD: Silver Uptrend with Short-Term ConsolidationAs of February 11, 2025, the XAG/USD (Silver Spot/US Dollar) exchange rate exhibits a positive medium-term trend despite a recent short-term slowdown. Currently, the price is around $32.83 per ounce at the time of writing. The first resistance level is identified at $32.24, followed by a second resistance at $32.96. The first support level is at $31.52, with an additional support at $31.21. In the short term, a weakening of the bullish trendline is observed, with the price testing the high at $32.24. Technically, a potential decline towards the $31.21 support level remains possible. Recent political decisions, such as the announcement of a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports to the United States, have impacted financial markets, leading to an appreciation of the US dollar and a decline in stocks. These developments could affect the precious metals market, including silver. Despite the positive medium-term trend, silver is currently undergoing a consolidation phase in the short term.
OANDA:XAGUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USD/JPY Approaches 152.00 Amid Yen Weakness and Trade War FearsThe USD/JPY exchange rate is recovering from recent lows, reaching 151.90 on February 10, 2025, compared to the previous close of 151.30. After a significant drop in early February, the trend shows a gradual rebound, supported by the Japanese Yen’s weakness due to disappointing macroeconomic data, particularly the sharp decline in Japan’s current account balance to 1,077.3 billion Yen from November’s 3,352.5 billion Yen. The strength of the US Dollar is also fueled by concerns over new 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum announced by President Trump, driving investors toward safe-haven assets like the Greenback. From a technical perspective, USD/JPY is nearing the psychological level of 152.00, with key resistance between 152.40 and 152.90. A breakout above this range could signal further gains, while a rejection may trigger a corrective phase. Volatility is heightened by uncertainty surrounding the Fed’s monetary policy, as it may maintain a cautious stance on rates to counter inflationary pressures. Meanwhile, speculation about a potential rate hike by the Bank of Japan (BoJ) could reduce the interest rate differential between the US and Japan. The Dollar Index (DXY) stands at 108.20, slightly up by 0.1% but down from the intraday high of 108.50, indicating a cautious market sentiment ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s testimony before Congress on Tuesday and Wednesday. Traders will closely watch his statements for any hints of a policy shift.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/AUD: Weekly Engulfing Bar Pullback!The recent performance of the EUR/AUD exchange rate shows a fluctuating trend, with a slight recovery, closing at approximately 1.6450 in the first week of February. In the preceding days, the rate experienced several declines, with a significant drop. These fluctuations reflect the economic dynamics of both the Eurozone and Australia. In the Eurozone, inflation unexpectedly rose to 2.5% in January, exceeding the European Central Bank’s 2% target for the third consecutive month. Despite this, the ECB plans to continue cutting interest rates, expecting inflation to reach its 2% target over the year. Meanwhile, the Eurozone economy showed no growth in the last quarter of 2024, with contractions in Germany and France and stagnation in Italy. In Australia, the leading economic indicators index increased by 0.2% in October 2024, suggesting a slight economic recovery. However, Australian Treasurer Jim Chalmers confirmed a worsening fiscal deficit, projected to rise by AUD 21.8 billion over the next four years, mainly due to unavoidable expenditures. These economic developments impact the EUR/AUD exchange rate, with the Euro benefiting from a more accommodative monetary policy while Australia faces fiscal challenges. Despite the recent upward movement, the negative trends from previous sessions and technical analysis suggest caution is warranted when assessing the short-term trajectory of the EUR/AUD exchange rate.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD: Bearish Pressure Amid US Inflation and Trade TensionsThe GBP/USD pair has recently declined, closing at 1.24445 on February 12 (-0.0233%) after a 0.6688% increase on February 11. Volatility has dominated recent sessions, with fluctuations between 1.2400 and 1.2500. The decline was triggered by US inflation data, which strengthened expectations of higher Fed rates, weighing on the pound. Despite a 2.5% increase in UK retail sales (compared to the expected 0.2%), GBP struggled to maintain upward momentum, further pressured by uncertainty surrounding US tariffs on steel and aluminum. Technically, support between 1.2320 - 1.2330 remains crucial for potential rebounds towards 1.2550 - 1.2600, but future movements will depend on upcoming economic data and monetary policy expectations on both sides of the Atlantic.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/NZD: Bearish Outlook Confirmed by Head and ShouldersThe GBP/NZD exchange rate at NZ$2.1922 reflects a persistent downtrend, confirming recent weakness in the British Pound against major counterparts. The formation of a head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart suggests further downside risk, with the pair testing key support levels. Market fluctuations between NZ$2.1754 and NZ$2.22 highlight ongoing volatility driven by external economic factors, including U.S. tariffs and mixed macroeconomic data from both the UK and New Zealand. The Pound remains under pressure due to inflation concerns and lackluster GDP growth, while the NZD struggles to capitalize on the Pound’s weakness amid subdued domestic data. The technical setup and broader macroeconomic landscape signal a potential continuation of bearish momentum for GBP/NZD.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Reversal of US Energy Policy Could Push Crude Oil LowerNYMEX: Micro Crude Oil Futures ( NYMEX:MCL1! ) #Microfutures On January 20th, President Donald Trump signed an executive order, “Declaring a National Energy Emergency”. This sets the tone of US energy policy for the next 4 years. By declaring national emergency and raising energy independence to the highest level of national security, President Trump introduced sweeping measures to fast-track energy infrastructure and regulatory approvals. In a 180-degree reversal, the new administration abandoned the Climate Change policies championed by the Biden presidency. Other executive orders saw the US quitting the Paris Climate Accord and cancelling pushes into renewable energy and electric vehicles. This marks a major turning point in the price trend of crude oil. Since Mid-January, WTI prices have already retreated 11%, while Brent was lowered by 10%. In my opinion, WTI futures could fall to the pre-Pandemic price range of $45-$64 a barrel, with a midpoint target at $55 in 2025. My logic follows: US oil production will rise, benefiting from the new energy policy As of 2023, the U.S. produced about 14.7% of the world's crude oil, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia. This makes the US the largest crude oil producer globally. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated the domestic oil production at 13.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024. It recently forecasted the US output to grow to 13.5 and 13.6 million b/d, in 2025 and 2026, respectively. Considering the complete makeover of US energy policy, I think the next EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) would show measurable upticks in its production forecast. Threats of Tariffs could curtail global oil demand Last week, the US slapped a 25% tariff for Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff for China on top of those imposed during the 2018-19 trade conflict. While the tariffs for Canada and Mexico are on hold pending trade negotiation, China retaliated and announced new tariffs on US goods at rates ranging from 10% to 15%. Rising global trade tensions would increase costs and raise the prices on store shelves. Declining sales would lead to production reduction. Eventually, a slowdown in economic activities will result in less demand for crude oil. The January STEO report forecasts global oil consumption growth to be less than the pre-pandemic trend, at an increase of 1.3 million b/d in 2025 and 1.1 million b/d in 2026. With the impact of higher tariffs, I expect the next STEO to show further deterioration in its oil consumption forecast. Lifting of oil embargo could release more supply to the global market The new administration campaigned to end global military conflicts. In my opinion, a US brokered peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine is on the horizon. Iran and the US could resume talks soon. Both scenarios could see the existing oil embargo being lifted. In 2024, Russia is the 3rd largest oil producer with 10.75 million barrels a day, while Iran ranks 7th with 4.08 million. Together, they contributed to over 18% of global oil output. Market trades on expectation. Oil prices would respond quickly with the emergence of any planned negotiation. OPEC+ to increase crude oil production The STEO forecasts the OPEC+ to relax production cuts. Following an annual decline of 1.3 million b/d in 2024, it expects growth of 0.2 million b/d in 2025 and a further increase of 0.6 million b/d in 2026 from OPEC+ producers as voluntary production cuts unwind. Additionally, STEO expects further production growth from countries outside of OPEC+, including the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. Commitment of Traders shows bearish sentiment The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on February 4th, total Open Interest (OI) for NYMEX WTI Futures is 1,765,342 contracts. “Managed Money” (i.e., hedge funds) own 204,272 in Long, 60,136 in Short and 393,098 in Spreading. • While they maintain a long-short ratio of 3.4:1, hedge funds have reduced long positions by 36,310 (-15%) while increasing short positions by 11,085 (+16%). • This indicates that “Smart Money” is becoming less bullish on oil. Crude oil prices typically rise on the back of geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and economic growth. We are likely to witness the retracing on all these fronts. Another reason for the rising prices in most financial assets has been the abundance of liquidity, leading by the $2-trillion-a-year US deficit spending. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) made significant headways into cutting government expenditures. This could help remove some of the premiums on asset prices. Trade Setup with Micro WTI Futures If a trader shares a similar view, he could express his opinion by shorting the NYMEX Micro WTI Futures ( GETTEX:MCL ). MCL contracts have a notional value of 100 barrels of crude oil. With Friday settlement price of $71.0, each March contract (MCLH5) has a notional value of $7,100. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $586. NYMEX crude oil futures are among the most liquid commodity contracts in the world. On Friday, standard WTI futures ( NYSE:CL , 1000 barrels) has a trade volume of 784,820 contracts and an OI of 1,796,265. Micro WTI has a trade volume of 54,038 and OI of 19,178. The Micro contracts allow traders to tap into the deep liquidity of NYMEX WTI market, while requiring only 1/10th of the initial margin. Hypothetically, a trader shorts March MCL contract and WTI prices pull back to our upper price range of $64. A short futures position would gain $700 (= (71 - 64) x $100). Using the initial margin as a cost base, a theoretical return would be +119.5% (= 700 / 586). The risk of shorting crude oil futures is rising oil prices. Investors could lose part of or all their initial margin. A trader could set a stop loss while establishing his short position. In the above example, the trader could set stop loss at $75 when entering the short order at $71. If crude oil continues to rise, the maximum loss would be $400 ( = (75-71) *100). To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com The Leap trading competition, #TheFuturesLeap, sponsored by CME Group, is currently running at TradingView. I encourage you to join The Leap to sharpen your trading skills and put your trading strategies at test, competing with your peers in this paper trading challenge sponsored by CME Group. www.tradingview.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
1
GBP/JPY: Finally, the Rate Cut Has Arrived!GBP/JPY is facing significant bearish pressure, with the price dropping to around 188.40 in the recent sessions on February 6, 2025. The main catalyst behind this trend has been the Bank of England’s interest rate cut of 25 basis points, bringing it down to 4.5%. This decision has intensified the weakness of the British pound, prompting investors to liquidate long positions and fueling the strong decline in the pair. The market is now pricing in the possibility of further rate cuts in the coming months, which keeps sentiment firmly bearish. From a technical perspective, the breakdown below the key level of 190.50 has confirmed the loss of bullish momentum. Even the recovery attempts seen in previous days, such as the rebound to 193.00 on February 4, have proven weak and incapable of reversing the primary trend. The current phase of weakness could lead the pair to test further lower support levels, with 187.50 and then 185.80 as possible bearish targets unless there is a positive reaction from the pound. On the macroeconomic front, the divergence between the BoE and the Bank of Japan could theoretically provide some medium-term support for the pound, given that the BoJ continues to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy. However, the market currently seems more focused on the deteriorating economic outlook for the UK and the increasing likelihood that the BoE will continue cutting rates, enhancing the yen’s appeal as a defensive asset. If risk-off sentiment intensifies, we could see an acceleration of the bearish trend in GBP/JPY, especially if the global market enters a more pronounced risk-averse phase.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD: Between Rebound Hopes and Tariff TensionsThe EUR/USD pair experienced a strong rebound on Tuesday, rising by 0.8% and breaking a six-day losing streak, although it failed to reclaim the 1.0400 threshold. Despite this recovery, bullish momentum remains fragile as the euro is heavily influenced by broader market flows and the anticipation of upcoming US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data. The pair found initial support at the weekly low of 1.0209 on February 3, with a potential decline towards the 2025 bottom of 1.0176 if this support fails. A break below this level could pave the way for a test of the psychological parity threshold. On the upside, resistance is identified at 1.0532, the year’s high recorded on January 27. The pair’s recovery was driven by a weakening US dollar, as the Dollar Index (DXY) fell below the 108.00 support, influenced by market reactions to President Donald Trump’s plans to delay a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods while maintaining a 10% levy on Chinese imports. Although the US dollar has weakened, the tariff issue is expected to strengthen its position in the long term, potentially supporting a bullish outlook for the currency. Central banks also play a crucial role: the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged last week, signaling a cautious approach amid strong economic growth, persistent inflation, and low unemployment. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 25 basis points, hinting at possible further easing while expressing optimism about controlling eurozone inflation. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized a data-driven approach, ruling out the possibility of aggressive rate cuts. Trade tensions, particularly those linked to US tariffs, could further complicate the euro’s outlook. Prolonged tariffs could fuel inflation in the United States, prompting the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance, which could strengthen the dollar and put pressure on the euro, potentially pushing the EUR/USD pair toward parity. Looking ahead, the euro faces challenges from the resilience of the US dollar, divergent monetary policies between the ECB and the Fed, and structural issues within the eurozone, such as Germany’s economic slowdown. While short-term rallies are possible, the overall outlook for the euro remains uncertain, with persistent risks related to geopolitical tensions and tariff policies likely to shape the pair’s trajectory.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/AUD: The Impact of Tariffs on MarketsThe GBP/AUD exchange rate showed mixed movements from January 27 to February 4, 2025, closing at 1.99489 on February 4 with a decline of approximately 0.42% compared to the previous session. Despite a modest rally on February 3, with an increase of about 0.58%, the subsequent downturn signals prevailing bearish sentiment. This fluctuation highlights a cautious market environment influenced by several key factors. A technical report dated February 4 highlighted a symmetrical triangle pattern where, despite a bullish crossover of the 9-period moving average above the 14-period moving average, the price remains confined between a resistance level around 2.0050. This range-bound behavior reflects traders' hesitation as they await a decisive breakout to confirm the next directional trend. Additionally, geopolitical factors have significantly impacted volatility. The announcement of new U.S. tariffs by President Trump temporarily pushed GBP/AUD above 2.012. However, this rally was short-lived, with the rate retracting shortly after due to market adjustments, demonstrating the pair's sensitivity to external economic policies. Furthermore, risk-off flows have contributed to intermittent strength in GBP/AUD, but the overall sentiment remains mixed. Technical indicators and the persistent narrow trading range indicate ongoing uncertainty, applying continuous downward pressure on the pair.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Will Oil jump against Trump's requests?On a technical perspective, Oil could reverse from the current price and start to climb again targeting buyside, as we have seen a divergence between Brent and WTI. However, it looks like Brent is weaker and might not be able to validate higher prices. Next week's OPEC meeting could clarify the direction, as I do not believe they will succumb to President Trump's requests of lowering Oil prices massively, and we could be looking for a volatile month.
FX:UKOIL
by microhedgefund
1
Trump's pressure on OPEC prompted the drop in USOIL prices. President Trump's steadfast dedication to lowering oil prices is driving the decline in WTI prices. During the WEF in Davos, Switzerland, he made it clear that he would demand Saudi Arabia and OPEC to reduce the price of crude oil. He boldly stated that lower oil prices could potentially lead to an end to the war in Ukraine. According to CSIS, Trump's call for reduced oil prices is a positive move for consumers and businesses but it is the one that the US oil industry will regard with caution. Failing to rise above EMA21, USOIL shows consolidation near 73.40. The price remains within the descending channel, and both EMAs have widened apart, indicating a potential continuation of the bearish momentum. If USOIL fails to breach EMA21, the price may fall further to the support at 71.50, where the channel’s lower bound coincides. Conversely, if USOIL breaches above EMA21 and the channel’s upper bound, the price could gain upward momentum to 74.50
TVC:USOIL
by inkicho_exness
USD/JPY: Will the Fed or BoJ Dominate the Tug of War?The USD/JPY exchange rate has shown both resilience and vulnerability in recent trading sessions, shaped by competing factors from monetary policy shifts to global economic developments. On the positive side, the U.S. dollar remains underpinned by Federal Reserve rate decisions, with market expectations of steady rates in the near term supporting its strength. Tariff threats from the U.S. administration further bolster the dollar’s safe-haven appeal, particularly as external economic pressures persist. Additionally, the pair has demonstrated an ability to recover from lower levels, such as rebounding to 155.50 during Tuesday's Asian trading, aided by softer Japanese service-sector inflation data. However, the Japanese yen has also gained momentum due to the Bank of Japan’s recent 25 basis point rate hike, which reflects a confident stance on inflation and wage growth trends. This decision has increased the yen’s attractiveness as a safe-haven asset, exacerbating pressure on the USD/JPY pair, particularly as global uncertainties and shifts in risk sentiment encourage investors to diversify into safe havens like the yen and the Swiss franc. Market sentiment surrounding U.S. economic vulnerabilities, including concerns over tariffs and a potential dovish shift by the Federal Reserve, has further weighed on the dollar. Traders are now pricing in a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed later this year, a factor that could erode the dollar’s appeal if realized. Overall, while USD/JPY has displayed moments of strength, the competing influences of U.S. dollar dynamics, Japanese yen strength, and global market sentiment create a volatile environment where traders must remain vigilant of economic data and central bank decisions.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1