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GBP/USD Is This the Last Dip Before 1.37?🔹 1. Price Action & Technical Structure (Weekly & Daily Charts) Price has broken above the ascending channel highlighted on the weekly chart. The 1.3545 area is currently acting as dynamic resistance — a weekly close above it is crucial to confirm a breakout. Below, we find a bullish order block (demand zone) around 1.3340 – 1.3280, aligning with the 0.5 Fibonacci level. RSI is neutral, showing no bearish divergence at the moment. 🔹 2. COT Report (Commitment of Traders) USD Index: Non-commercial traders: +823 new longs, +363 new shorts → Neutral to bullish positioning. Commercials remain net short, indicating short-term USD strength potential. EUR FX (inverse proxy for USD): Significant reduction in speculative long positions → Less bullish pressure on the Euro, favoring USD strength. 🔹 3. Sentiment 67% of retail traders are short GBP/USD vs. 33% long. This is a bullish contrarian signal, suggesting potential continuation toward the 1.36–1.37 zone. 🔹 4. Seasonality Historically, June tends to be bearish for GBP/USD over the past 5–10 years. However, the first 10 days of the month often start with bullish momentum before correcting in the second half. 🔹 5. Economic Calendar Today: Construction PMI (GBP), ECB Press Conference (EUR), Unemployment Claims (USD). Tomorrow: High potential volatility across all USD pairs. Watch out — upcoming macro data may strongly impact breakout confirmation. 🔹 6. Operational Outlook Primary Bias: Neutral/Bullish with potential for a technical pullback. 📍 Key Levels: Resistance: 1.3545 – 1.3593 (Supply zone + 0.0 fib) Support: 1.3340 – 1.3280 (OB + 0.5/0.618 fib) 🧠 Scenario 1 – Bullish Continuation: Retest of 1.3340 → long targeting 1.3590 / 1.3680 Confirmation on daily close above 1.3550 🔻 Scenario 2 – Bearish Retracement: Rejection below 1.3550 + USD macro strength → drop toward 1.3280 If that breaks → extended move to 1.3170 / 1.3150
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
EUR/USD Reversal Imminent? 5 Powerful ReasonsEUR/USD – Tactical Bearish Outlook Ahead of Key Reversal EUR/USD is approaching a critical inflection point where multiple technical and fundamental signals are aligning to suggest a potential short-term reversal. 📉 1. Price Action & Technical Structure (1W / 1D) The pair recently completed a clean bullish structure inside an ascending channel, originating from the 1.0600 demand zone and reaching into the key supply area between 1.1400–1.1550. Recent price behavior indicates: A weekly candle with a strong upper wick, signaling institutional rejection. A visible RSI bearish divergence, showing weakening momentum. The most recent daily candle broke below the channel, suggesting a potential swing high. Implication: A short-term reversal is likely, targeting the 1.1180 zone, with an extended move potentially reaching the 1.1050–1.1000 area. 🧠 2. COT Data – Institutional Positioning USD Index: Non-Commercials increased longs (+823) and slightly increased shorts (+363) — net bias still bullish USD. Commercials also added to longs, further confirming institutional accumulation. → USD strength building. EUR Futures: Non-Commercials reduced longs (-1,716) and added shorts (+6,737). The net long position in EUR continues to weaken. → Increasing risk of EUR retracement. 📅 3. Seasonality – EUR/USD in June EUR/USD tends to be neutral to bearish in June. The 5- and 10-year averages show consistent early-month declines, supporting a short bias in the first two weeks. 📊 4. Retail Sentiment Sentiment is currently evenly split (50/50). However, more volume is positioned long — a potential contrarian signal. → A break in this balance may trigger volatility and directionality. 🧭 5. Macro Context Eurozone is facing stagnation, with falling inflation and weak growth. U.S. data remains stronger, supporting the Fed’s “higher for longer” narrative. → This divergence favors a stronger USD in the near term. ✅ Trading Outlook 📉 Current Bias: Bearish (corrective) 📌 Short-Term Target: 1.1180 📌 Mid-Term Target: 1.1050–1.1000 ❌ Invalidation: Weekly close above 1.1460 🎯 Strategy: Look for intraday rejection confirmations and sell pullbacks, in alignment with HTF structure and institutional flows.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
8
USD/CHF Setup Breaking Down: Don’t Get Caught Long This TrapUSD/CHF is currently trading at a critical technical and macro-structural juncture. Price is hovering within the weekly support area between 0.8050 and 0.8200, a zone that has historically triggered significant bullish reactions. However, the latest weekly candle closed below the psychological 0.8200 level, showing a clear rejection of upper resistance and signaling a lack of buying strength on the U.S. dollar side. This weak closure undermines the bullish structure and opens the door for a potential continuation of the downtrend—especially if price breaks below the 0.8150 mark on the daily or H4 timeframe. From a seasonal standpoint, June has historically been a bearish month for USD/CHF. Monthly average returns over the past 20, 15, 10, and 5 years confirm steady downside pressure on the dollar against the Swiss franc. Only the 2-year average shows a slight positive bias, but it remains an outlier against the broader seasonal trend. This supports the idea that the recent weakness is not only technical but also cyclical in nature. The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reinforces this bearish view. On the Swiss franc side, commercial traders (typically the most informed and hedging-oriented participants) are heavily net long, while non-commercial traders (speculators) remain significantly net short. This imbalance is often seen around reversal points and may indicate rising CHF strength. On the U.S. dollar side, positioning is far more balanced—the Dollar Index COT shows a neutral stance, with non-commercials slightly net long but without any dominant momentum. This confirms there’s currently no structural strength behind the dollar to justify a meaningful rebound in USD/CHF. Lastly, retail sentiment provides a classic contrarian signal: over 90% of retail traders are long on USD/CHF, with only 10% short. This extreme imbalance typically occurs ahead of bearish breakdowns, as institutional players tend to fade overcrowded retail positions. In conclusion, USD/CHF remains vulnerable to further downside. The weekly price action is weak, seasonal trends are dollar-negative, COT positioning favors CHF strength, and retail sentiment is extremely long-biased. All factors align toward a likely bearish continuation, with technical targets in the 0.8080–0.8050 range. The only alternative scenario would require a strong H4/H1 bullish reaction with a reclaim of 0.8220—but at this stage, that appears unlikely without a major macro catalyst.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
10
GBP/USD Ready to Explode or Collapse? All Eyes on 1.3600British Pound (CFTC - CME) Commercial traders increased their long positions by +1,839 contracts and short positions by +3,597. Net exposure remains negative, but the significant short increase suggests active hedging and risk management. Non-Commercial traders (speculators) reduced their longs by -1,396 and increased their shorts by +1,827, signaling weakening sentiment toward the GBP. Open Interest rose modestly by +465 → showing renewed engagement, though there’s clear divergence between Commercial and Non-Commercial positioning. Implication: Net pressure remains bearish, but there's evidence of short saturation from Commercials, possibly hinting at a consolidation phase or reversal ahead. USD Index (ICE Futures) Non-Commercials increased both longs (+2,044) and shorts (+1,975), signaling indecision. Commercials slightly increased long exposure (+689), while shorts remained mostly flat (-114). Implication: The dollar shows cautious strengthening, but with no strong directional conviction. A period of ranging price action is likely. 2. Retail Sentiment 67% of retail traders are short GBP/USD, with only 33% long. Volume favors short positions as well: 7,727 lots vs. 3,866 long. Implication: From a contrarian perspective, the excessive short bias among retail traders supports a short-term bullish scenario, possibly driven by a short squeeze or liquidity run. 3. Historical Seasonality May shows a historically bearish tendency: 10-Year Avg: -2.22% 5-Year Avg: -1.60% 2-Year Avg: -0.65% Implication: Seasonal bias remains negative, but should be interpreted alongside COT and sentiment data to avoid misleading signals. 4. Technical Analysis Price is currently trading inside a weekly resistance zone between 1.3513 and 1.3600, following a strong bounce from a dynamic support. A previous structure break failed to follow through → bull trap was avoided. The weekly RSI is rising from neutral levels, suggesting momentum is shifting upward. Previous demand zones around 1.3176 and 1.3047 held well. Implication: A potential breakout is forming, but it occurs near a key technical level. Without strong volume or fundamentals, the area may trigger a sell reaction. 5. Market Depth There is a heavy cluster of short orders above current price, while long orders appear scattered and less aggressive. This creates a liquidity magnet effect, which may lead to bullish spikes towards 1.3550–1.3600 before any meaningful distribution. Implication: Potential upside extension in the short-term to hunt stops, followed by a bearish reaction. 🎯 Operational Outlook Main Bias: Neutral-to-Bullish short-term, Bearish (Seasonal) mid-term Key levels to watch: Resistance: 1.3550–1.3600 Support zone: Ascending trendline and 1.3340–1.3176 Likely Scenarios: Price may spike toward 1.3550 to clear liquidity before facing rejection. A confirmed weekly close above 1.3610 opens the door to 1.3750. A drop below 1.3340 confirms structural reversal and bearish continuation.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
USD/JPY Breakdown: Is 140 the Next Target? Smart Money Says Yes!USD/JPY is currently in a highly interesting technical and macro phase, characterized by divergences between price action and institutional positioning, negative seasonal signals, and retail sentiment that goes against what would typically be expected in a reversal scenario. Let’s break it down: 1. Institutional Positioning (COT Report) The COT data reveals a mixed picture with bearish implications for USD/JPY: On the USD side, non-commercial traders continue to increase their net long exposure (+2,044 new long contracts this week). However, this rise is almost equally offset by +1,975 new shorts, indicating indecision and hedging activity. For the Japanese Yen, non-commercials (speculators) are significantly rebuilding long JPY positions, while commercials have started covering their short exposure. 📌 Implication: The net flow favors the Yen, meaning bearish pressure on USD/JPY. The increase in JPY long positions reflects expectations of a stronger Yen in the short to medium term. 2. Historical Seasonality Seasonal data reinforces the bearish bias: In May and June, USD/JPY has historically posted negative returns. The 5-year average shows -0.57 in May and -0.76 in June, with both the 2Y and 10Y averages confirming a similar downward seasonal pattern. 📌 Implication: The current seasonal window does not favor a USD rebound vs. the Yen. Historically, the likelihood of downside increases into early summer. 3. Retail Sentiment Retail traders are heavily long, with 64% positioned long on USD/JPY versus 36% short. 📌 Implication: From a contrarian perspective, this is a bearish signal. Markets tend to move against retail positioning, adding further downside risk. 4. Price Action & Technical Structure (Daily Chart) On the weekly chart: Price broke the key 144.00 support decisively, closing the week at 142.81. Structure shows lower highs and lower lows, typical of a bearish trend. RSI is falling but still above oversold levels, leaving room for further downside. First demand zone: 141.50–142.20. A confirmed break could open the way to 140.00–139.80. Key resistance on any pullback: 145.00–146.00. 📌 Implication: The confirmed break of support activated a bearish continuation setup, unless short-term bounces offer new sell opportunities near resistance. 5. Market Depth Market depth shows a strong cluster of long orders above current levels, while short volumes appear fragmented. This suggests any short-term rally could face aggressive selling between 144.50–145.50. 🎯 Conclusion & Operational Outlook The overall context points to a high probability of further downside in USD/JPY over the short to medium term: Smart money is rotating toward the Yen. Seasonal patterns historically support a drop in May–June. Contrarian retail sentiment adds additional bearish weight. The weekly chart confirms a break of structure, opening space below 141.50.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
6
OPEC Countdown: Inverted H&S Signals Potential Oil Price Rise🧭 Market Context – OPEC in Focus As Crude Oil Futures (CL) grind in tight consolidation, the calendar reminds traders that the next OPEC meeting takes place on May 28, 2025. This is no ordinary headline event — OPEC decisions directly influence global oil supply. From quota adjustments to production cuts, their moves can rapidly shift price dynamics across energy markets. Every tick in crude oil reflects not just current flows but also positioning ahead of such announcements. OPEC — the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries — coordinates oil policy among major producers. Its impact reverberates through futures markets like CL and MCL (Micro Crude), where both institutional and retail traders align positions weeks in advance. This time, technicals are speaking loud and clear. A compelling bottoming structure is taking shape. The Daily timeframe reveals an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern coinciding with a bullish flag, compressing into a potential breakout zone. If momentum confirms, CL could burst into a trend move — just as OPEC makes its call. 📊 Technical Focus – Inverted H&S + Flag Pattern Price action on the CL daily chart outlines a classic Inverted Head and Shoulders — a reversal structure that traders often monitor for high-conviction setups. The neckline sits at 64.19, and price is currently coiled just below it, forming a bullish flag that overlaps with the pattern’s right shoulder. What makes this setup powerful is its precision. Not only does the flag compress volatility, but the symmetry of the shoulders, the clean neckline, and the breakout potential align with high-quality chart pattern criteria. The confirmation of the breakout typically requires trading activity above 64.19, which would trigger the measured move projection. That target? Around 70.59, which is near a relevant UFO-based resistance level — a region where sellers historically stepped in with force (UnFilled Orders to Sell). Importantly, this bullish thesis will fail if price drops below 60.02, the base of the flag. That invalidation would potentially flip sentiment and set up a bearish scenario with a target near the next UFO support at 53.58. To properly visualize the dual scenario forming in Crude Oil, a multi-timeframe approach is often very useful as each timeframe adds clarity to structure, breakout logic, and entry/exit positioning: Weekly Chart: Reveals two consecutive indecision candles, reflecting hesitation as the market awaits the OPEC outcome.   Daily chart: Presents a MACD bullish divergence, potentially adding strength to the reversal case. Zoomed-in 4H chart: Further clarifies the boundaries of the bullish flag. 🎯 Trade Plan – CL and MCL Long/Short Scenarios ⏫ Bullish Trade Plan: o Product: CL or MCL o Entry: Break above 64.19 o Target: 70.59 (UFO resistance) o Stop Options: Option A: 60.02 (tight, under flag) Option B: ATR-based trailing stop o Ideal for momentum traders taking advantage of chart pattern combined with fundamental data coming out of an OPEC meeting ⏬ Bearish Trade Plan: o Trigger: Break below 60.02 o Target: 53.58 (UFO support) o Stop Options: Option A: 64.19 (tight, above flag) Option B: ATR-based trailing stop o Ideal for momentum traders fading pattern failures ⚙️ Contract Specs – CL vs MCL Crude Oil can be traded through two futures contracts on CME Group: the standard CL (WTI Crude Oil Futures) and the smaller-sized MCL (Micro WTI Crude Oil Futures). Both offer identical tick structures, making MCL a powerful instrument for traders needing more flexibility in position sizing. CL represents 1,000 barrels of crude per contract. Each tick (0.01 move) is worth $10, and one full point of movement equals $1,000. The current estimated initial margin required to trade one CL contract is approximately $6,000 per contract, although this may vary based on market volatility and brokerage terms. MCL, the micro version, represents 100 barrels per contract — exactly 1/10th the size of CL. Each 0.01 tick move is worth $1, with one point equaling $100. The estimated initial margin for MCL is around $600, offering traders access to the same technical setups at significantly reduced capital exposure. These two contracts mirror each other tick-for-tick. MCL is ideal for: Testing breakout trades with lower risk Scaling in/out around events like OPEC Implementing precise risk management strategies Meanwhile, CL provides larger exposure and higher dollar returns but requires tighter control of risk and account drawdowns. Traders can choose either—or both—based on their strategy and account size. 🛡️ Risk Management – The Foundation of Survival Technical setups don’t make traders profitable — risk management does. Before the OPEC meeting, traders must be aware that volatility can spike, spreads may widen, and whipsaws can invalidate even the cleanest chart pattern. That’s why stop losses aren’t optional — they’re mandatory. Whether you choose a near level, a deeper stop below the head, or an ATR-based trailing method, the key is clear: define risk before entry. MCL helps mitigate capital exposure for those testing breakout confirmation. CL demands higher margin and greater drawdown flexibility — but offers bigger tick rewards. Precision also applies to exits. Targets must be defined before entry to maintain reward-to-risk discipline. Avoid adding to losers or chasing breakouts post-event. And most importantly — never hold a losing position into an event like OPEC, hoping for recovery. Risk is not a gamble. It’s a calculated variable. Treat it with respect. When charting futures, the data provided could be delayed. Traders working with the ticker symbols discussed in this idea may prefer to use CME Group real-time data plan on TradingView: www.tradingview.com - This consideration is particularly important for shorter-term traders, whereas it may be less critical for those focused on longer-term trading strategies. General Disclaimer: The trade ideas presented herein are solely for illustrative purposes forming a part of a case study intended to demonstrate key principles in risk management within the context of the specific market scenarios discussed. These ideas are not to be interpreted as investment recommendations or financial advice. They do not endorse or promote any specific trading strategies, financial products, or services. The information provided is based on data believed to be reliable; however, its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed. Trading in financial markets involves risks, including the potential loss of principal. Each individual should conduct their own research and consult with professional financial advisors before making any investment decisions. The author or publisher of this content bears no responsibility for any actions taken based on the information provided or for any resultant financial or other losses.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by traddictiv
Corn at a Historical Turning Point? Corn futures are currently at a technically significant juncture. After an extended bearish phase from the yearly highs, price has reached a key monthly demand zone between 445 and 435 cents, an area that has historically triggered major reversals. This level is further validated by technical signals indicating potential exhaustion of the bearish momentum: the price action is showing rejection candles, and the RSI is recovering from oversold territory, creating room for a possible upside move. However, it’s important to consider the seasonal context, which doesn’t favor an immediate reversal. Historical data shows that May, June, and July are statistically the weakest months for Corn. In particular, July tends to be highly bearish, with an average performance of -22% over the last 20 years and -36% over the last 10. This means that while the technical setup may suggest a potential bounce, seasonal pressure may continue to cap prices in the short term, making a sustained rally unlikely before August. The COT positioning adds another layer of insight. Non-commercial traders (speculators) have recently closed a significant number of long positions and added shorts, reflecting strong bearish sentiment. In contrast, commercials (hedgers) have increased long exposure and decreased shorts, signaling optimism and a willingness to accumulate at these levels. This divergence often marks contrarian opportunities, especially when speculators are heavily short and commercials are heavily long—often a sign of a market bottom forming. 🧠 Summary: Corn is sitting on major structural support, with early signs of a potential rebound. Yet, the seasonality remains bearish through mid-summer. The COT report, however, supports a bullish medium-term outlook, particularly heading into August–September, when prices historically begin to climb decisively. 🔔 Trading Outlook: In the short term, tactical longs can be considered if the 445–435 area holds, with tight risk management. Initial targets are set at 465 and 472. The true strategic setup, however, is more likely to emerge in the coming months, with August as the key window for a sustained upside move supported by both seasonal and COT positioning.
CBOT:ZC1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
15
USD/JPY Breakdown Incoming? 4 Powerful Signals Say 'Short Now'! The current landscape for USD/JPY signals a potential bearish reversal, supported by a convergence of technical, sentiment, and fundamental factors. Following a strong bullish leg from the 140 zone, price has reached the 146–147 resistance area, where it is currently being rejected. Price action has broken below the ascending channel that began in early April, suggesting a loss of bullish momentum and a possible transition into a deeper corrective phase. From the COT (Commitment of Traders) perspective, the picture aligns with this bias. Non-commercials on the USD Index (DXY) are aggressively reducing exposure on both long and short sides, resulting in a net position of -615 contracts. This reflects growing uncertainty or waning confidence in dollar strength as U.S. monetary policy enters a potential pivot zone. Meanwhile, JPY futures still show a strong net long position by speculators (194,226 long vs. 21,958 short), even after a significant long liquidation of over 9,700 contracts. Commercial traders, typically positioned opposite to trend, remain heavily net short—hinting at possible strength ahead for the yen. Seasonality adds further weight: May is historically a bearish month for USD/JPY. The 5, 10, and 15-year averages all show negative returns, with a structural downside tendency, especially in the final two weeks of the month. Retail sentiment further supports this case. Data shows that 68% of retail traders are currently long USD/JPY. Interpreting this through a contrarian lens, it implies growing downside potential, as over-positioned retail traders often precede a move in the opposite direction. Lastly, technical analysis (daily timeframe) reinforces the bearish scenario. The break below the bullish channel invalidates the recent structure, and the RSI is trending lower with plenty of room to move down before hitting oversold levels. Immediate support zones lie between 143 and 141. A potential retest of 145.80–146.30 would offer a favorable entry for fresh shorts in line with a developing bearish swing structure. 🎯 Conclusion All elements—technical structure, COT data, seasonal weakness, and retail sentiment—are converging toward a bearish USD/JPY outlook. Institutional traders are cutting dollar longs, seasonal forces are negative, and retail positioning is overly long. With price structure now broken, the bearish bias is well supported, targeting 143 first and 141 as a deeper move, pending price action confirmation.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
5
GBP/CAD Poised for Breakout – What’s Next After 1.8600?1. TECHNICAL CONTEXT (Daily Chart) GBP/CAD has been trading within a well-defined ascending channel since early 2025. After hitting the lower bound of the channel around 1.8050 in May, price bounced sharply and regained strength, pushing back above the key 1.8400–1.8450 zone, now confirmed as new support. Currently, price is approaching the 1.8600 area, which represents: The upper boundary of the April–May consolidation range A clear supply zone visible on the weekly chart A technical resistance cluster (previous closes + Fibonacci levels) The RSI shows growing momentum, yet not overbought, suggesting potential upside extension toward 1.8779, the monthly high. Key Technical Levels: Resistance: 1.8600 – 1.8779 (extended target) Support: 1.8401 (weekly) and 1.8250 (mid-range level) Primary Trend: Bullish Structure: Active ascending channel 2. INSTITUTIONAL POSITIONING (COT REPORT – May 13, 2025) CAD: Non-Commercials (speculators) are heavily net short: 23,250 longs vs 105,466 shorts = -82,216 net Weekly increase: +18,084 new shorts → clear rise in bearish pressure Commercials (hedgers) are net long, typical of risk hedging, indicating an opposing view to speculators GBP: Non-Commercials are net long: 89,540 longs vs 62,324 shorts = +27,216 net, despite a minor weekly reduction (-4,844) Commercials are net short, likely hedging strength in the pound COT Takeaway: Speculators are clearly favoring GBP strength vs CAD, while CAD is under heavy short pressure. This supports further upside in GBP/CAD. 3. RETAIL SENTIMENT 80% of retail traders are short GBP/CAD, with an average entry at 1.8551 20% long, with average entry at 1.8147 This extreme retail skew represents a contrarian bullish signal: the market may push higher to trigger stop-losses on poorly positioned shorts. 4. SEASONALITY CAD in May: Mixed behavior with a slight bearish/neutral tendency on 10y and 2y averages Monthly average: as low as -0.0097 (10-year data) GBP in May: Historically one of the weakest months for the British pound Average returns range between -0.015 and -0.0226 That said, 2025 appears to diverge from seasonal norms, with GBP showing relative strength across the board. Seasonality Takeaway: While seasonality favors CAD over GBP in May, this year’s price action and positioning override that pattern. TRADING SUMMARY 🔹 Primary Bias: Moderately Bullish 🔹 Technical Outlook: Positive structure above key support at 1.8400 🔹 COT Insight: Supports upside due to aggressive CAD short buildup 🔹 Retail Sentiment: Skewed short → potential short squeeze 🔹 Seasonality: Bearish for GBP, but currently outweighed by fundamentals/positioning SCENARIOS 📈 Bullish Scenario (preferred): Break and hold above 1.8600 → acceleration toward 1.8779 Midway target: 1.8670 (psychological level) Technical stop: Below 1.8400 (or trailing SL on breakout) 📉 Corrective Scenario: Failure at 1.8600 → pullback to 1.8401 (bullish retest) Deeper weakness only confirmed on break below 1.8250, which would invalidate the ascending channel CONCLUSION GBP/CAD is in a structurally bullish setup, backed by speculative favor toward GBP and an extreme short bias on CAD. Despite the unfavorable seasonality for GBP, the technical trend and positioning data justify a bullish outlook with a target at 1.8779, contingent on a confirmed break above 1.8600.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
13
EUR/USD is Loading a Breakout?!EUR/USD has posted an interesting bullish reaction following a controlled descent within a descending channel. After a brief break below a long-term ascending trendline, price established support within a clear demand zone between 1.1130 and 1.1170, closing the daily candle back above the key area. This structure suggests a possible phase of accumulation, especially given the presence of a strong lower wick and the defense of the highlighted yellow zone. Still, the pair remains within the descending channel, and the squeeze between the trendline and resistance at 1.1280 could become a decision zone. A daily close above 1.1280 would support bullish continuation and open the way to 1.1450. 🧠 Institutional Positioning (COT): Large speculators continue to favor the long side on the euro, with a noticeable increase in net long exposure. This confirms the accumulation narrative visible on the chart. Meanwhile, the USD shows a consistent decline in bullish positioning, adding weight to the case for a softer dollar — supportive of a potential EUR breakout. 📊 Retail Sentiment: Retail traders are slightly skewed to the short side (52% short), which is not extreme but does act as a contrarian input favoring bullish continuation — especially if the price breaks above dynamic resistance. 📅 Seasonality (May): Historically, May tends to be a weak-to-neutral month for EUR/USD over the 10–20Y horizon. However, recent years (last 2Y) show a bullish deviation from that trend, supporting the idea that any dips could offer opportunity rather than signal trend reversals. 🧭 Summary 📈 Directional Bias: Moderately Bullish ❌ Invalidation: Daily close below 1.1130 🎯 Target Levels: • Key Resistance: 1.1280 • Extension Zone: 1.1450 🧠 Key Takeaway: EUR/USD is showing early signs of bullish reversal within a still-constrained technical structure. Demand rejection, institutional long bias, and retail short pressure all align for a potential continuation higher. However, a confirmed breakout above 1.1280 is crucial to validate the scenario.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
7
Gold Just Grabbed Liquidity Below a Key LowGold reacted sharply at a major structural level last week, sweeping liquidity below the previous weekly swing low. That move was immediately followed by a strong bullish rejection candle with a deep lower wick — signaling aggressive buyer absorption. The price also respected a long-term ascending trendline, which has acted as dynamic support since early March. Two demand zones are clearly identified on the chart (based on HTF imbalances and previous accumulation ranges), and price tapped the upper zone near 3,160 before bouncing. The bullish structure remains intact unless price closes below 3,080 on the weekly. Until then, the trendline and recent liquidity grab favor further upside continuation. 📉 COT Data Insight Gold Non-Commercials: Net long remains strong (238k long vs 76k short) New long contracts: +746 | Shorts: +2,034 However, a large drop in spread positions (-12,424) signals a tactical unwind in hedge fund exposure USD Index (DXY) Non-Commercials: Net long positions down significantly (-5,712) Softening dollar bias adds tailwind for gold in the short term 🧠 COT Takeaway Speculative interest continues to favor Gold, while USD positioning weakens — supporting the idea of a technical bounce and potential bullish continuation. 🧮 Retail Sentiment (Contrarian View) Retail traders are currently 54% short on XAU/USD — classic contrarian signal suggesting the path of least resistance remains to the upside. 📆 Seasonal Outlook (May Performance) Historically, May tends to be a neutral-to-weak month for gold based on 10- to 15-year data. However, in the last 2 years, May has delivered clear bullish seasonality, which reinforces the case for upward momentum after pullbacks. ✅ Summary 🔸 Directional Bias: Moderately Bullish 🔸 Invalid if: Weekly close < 3,080 🎯 First Target: 3,280 – 3,320 🎯 Extended Target: 3,440 resistance zone 📌 Final Thoughts The technical reaction from demand, supportive COT structure, soft USD positioning, and contrarian sentiment all point toward potential continuation higher. As long as Gold holds above the 3,080 zone, the bulls remain in control.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by EdgeTradingJourney
16
USDCAD | Technical Rebound or Final Stop Before the Crash?USDCAD is currently in a highly delicate phase: the price has reached a key weekly demand zone between 1.3720–1.3820, which overlaps with a strong Fibonacci retracement cluster (0.705–0.78) of the previous bullish leg. So far, the reaction has been muted, but price compression and fading volatility suggest a potential short-term rebound. However, looking at the bigger picture, the macro and positioning signals are flashing red for the US dollar: 📊 COT Report: Non-Commercials are significantly increasing short positions on USD and reducing shorts on CAD → bearish bias on USDCAD 🧠 Retail sentiment: Most retail traders are long on USDCAD → contrarian bearish bias 🗓️ Seasonality: May is historically negative for the USD and positive for the CAD → further confirms the short thesis Only a structural recovery above 1.4150 on the weekly close would invalidate the bearish setup. Until then, any retracement towards 1.3980–1.4050 should be seen as an opportunity to sell strength. 🎯 Key Levels: Sell zone: 1.3980–1.4050 Invalidation: Weekly close > 1.4150 Targets: 1.3720 – 1.3550 🔔 Critical note: When everyone is long, often the only direction left is down.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
EUR/USD racing towards new highs? The market sends clear signalsThe EUR/USD pair is confirming a very strong bullish structure. On the weekly chart, the price is positioned above a key supply zone between 1.1350 and 1.1450, after strongly breaking through previous resistances. The current consolidation at the top of the range suggests a potential continuation to the upside, with a first target at 1.1500 and an extended target at 1.1600. Retail market sentiment shows a clear majority of short positions on EUR/USD. This supports a contrarian bullish view, as historically, retail tends to be positioned against the prevailing trend. COT report data further strengthens this outlook. The US Dollar Index (USD Index) shows an increase in short positions among institutional traders, indicating a possible phase of dollar weakness. Conversely, the Euro FX shows a significant increase in long positions from both non-commercial and commercial traders, highlighting institutional interest in buying the euro. From a seasonal perspective, May tends to be neutral or slightly negative for the euro, while June historically favors moderate dollar strength. This suggests that EUR/USD could still have room to rise over the coming weeks, but it will be important to monitor for signs of bullish exhaustion towards the end of May. In summary, the current context favors further upside on EUR/USD as long as the price remains above the 1.1300 support. However, it will be crucial to watch for the first signs of weakness as we approach June.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
S&P500: Rebound or Bull Trap?Over the past week, the S&P500 weekly chart showed a key technical signal: the formation of a bullish engulfing. This pattern emerged after several weeks of strong monthly bearish pressure, suggesting a potential reversal attempt or, at the very least, a technical rebound. Analyzing the key levels, the price reacted inside a major demand area (visible on the monthly timeframe), positioned between 5,450 and 5,500 points. The reaction from this zone reinforces the validity of the engulfing and suggests the market could now aim for the first resistance targets around 5,600 - 5,650. Further upside targets are located at 5,837 and 6,023, previously marked as high-confluence zones. From an institutional positioning perspective, the latest COT Report (April 22, 2025) reveals interesting developments: Commercials (big players) increased their long contracts by +22,226 units, showing strong interest in upside protection. Non-Commercials (speculators) also increased their longs (+8,754), but added even more to their shorts (+20,667). The Net Positioning for Non-Commercials remains negative but has stabilized at less extreme levels compared to March, suggesting a possible phase of accumulation or preparation for a sentiment shift. 📊 The Net Positions chart shows a reduction in net short pressure — a warning sign for those still heavily short. Summary: The weekly engulfing is a technical signal not to underestimate. We are trading within a strong monthly demand zone. COT data suggests a decrease in bearish pressure, although not yet a full sentiment reversal. However, caution is necessary: a firm break below 5,450 would invalidate the bullish signal and reopen the path toward corrections at 5,200 and 5,000. Current Strategy: Slight bullish bias above 5,500. Short-term target: 5,600 → 5,650. Next targets: 5,837 and 6,023. Invalidation level: weekly close below 5,450. Watching the price action around key resistance levels will be crucial: the market will decide whether this rebound consolidates or becomes just a trap for new buyers.
CME_MINI:ES1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Nasdaq on Thin Ice? Smart Money is Bearish!📊 COT Analysis – NASDAQ E-MINI Futures Asset Managers → Consistently net long, but without accumulation: showing little conviction on new lows. Leveraged Money → Confirmed aggressive shorts, a clear sign that smart money doesn't believe in the bounce. ✅ COT Conclusion: Smart money is not buying the dip → fundamental bias = bearish. 🧠 Technical Breakdown + My Long Trade 📉 Structure: Strong rejection from the 16,700–17,300 zone, with a long weekly wick = signs of accumulation. Price formed a double bottom + weekly engulfing candle, right on the demand zone → confirming strong buyer pressure. 🎯 My Long Trade (LIVE SETUP): Entry: After confirmation of bullish price action on the blue demand zone Target: Supply zone 20,400–21,000 Exit: Closed just before the drop → perfect trade management, respecting structure and weekly resistance 📈 Post-trade context: Price then rejected violently from that zone → we’re now back around 18,400, and if 18,000 breaks, the door opens toward 16,700. 🧭 What’s Next? 🔹 If price pulls back to 19,200–19,500, I’ll look for a short setup 🔹 If it breaks below 18,000 → clean path toward 16,700–16,500 ✅ Trade Summary 🔥 Long from structural demand zone → exit at weekly supply 🧠 Setup based on price action + RSI and structural confluence 🐻 Now the bias shifts back to bearish: watch the 18k level closely
CME_MINI:NQ1!Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
GBP/JPY at the Edge! Bounce or Breakdown? The weekly chart of GBP/JPY reveals a highly volatile scenario, with a recent bearish expansion pushing the price back toward a key support zone between 185.00 and 188.30 — an area that has been defended multiple times in the past. After an attempted recovery toward the supply zone between 194.00 and 195.00, the pair encountered heavy selling pressure, failing to break out and sharply reversing. From a technical perspective, the move suggests a possible swing failure above local highs, with the current weekly candle confirming a return below resistance. Price action is now within a critical area: if the current support holds, we could see a technical rebound with interim targets at 191.40 and potentially back toward 194.00. However, a breakdown below 185.00 would open the door to deeper correction, with possible extensions toward 182.00 and 180.00 — both zones marked by previous accumulation. The RSI, after dipping into oversold territory, is now attempting a reaction, indicating that buyers are trying to regain control, though the structure remains fragile. Strategically, this phase demands caution: aggressive longs may seek confirmation of reversal above current lows, while bearish traders should closely watch for a confirmed breakdown below support. The 188.30 to 191.40 price range will be key to monitoring the next directional move.
Long
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
EUR/USD Explosion or Trap?EUR Futures Asset Managers: Strongly net long and continuously increasing since December 2024 → a clear sign of institutional confidence in the euro. Leveraged Money: Also rising, moving from net short to net long → sentiment reversal even from speculators. ✅ Interpretation: Both institutional categories are bullish on the euro, suggesting potential upward support for EUR/USD. USD Index Futures Asset Managers: Decreasing since the end of February → reducing long exposure on the dollar. Leveraged Money: Recovering from net short, but still uncertain → mixed sentiment. ⚠️ Interpretation: The dollar is structurally weakening. This reinforces the bullish bias on EUR/USD. 🧠 Technical Analysis – EUR/USD Weekly Chart Current price: 1.13150, right in the middle of a weekly/monthly supply zone, marked by upper wicks → clear seller presence. Price has made a strong rally from 1.03600, breaking through all intermediate supply zones. RSI: Slightly declining after previously reaching overbought territory. 📌 Key levels: Major support: 1.1000–1.1080 Structural resistance: 1.1350–1.1450 (current zone) 🧠 Technical Scenario: If price holds above 1.1250, we could see an extension toward 1.1500. If it breaks below 1.1200, a pullback toward 1.1080–1.1000 is likely. ✅ Trade Summary: COT bias: Bullish EUR/USD → strong EUR, weakening USD Technical: Watch price behavior in the 1.1350 zone → if rejection continues, expect a technical retracement before potential continuation. 🎯 Potential Setups: Long on pullback toward 1.1080 Breakout long above 1.1450 → targeting 1.1600 Short-term short if bearish price action appears in the current zone
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
GOLD heading to $3,450 or a bull trap ahead?XAUUSD has shown a strong bullish reversal from the key zone at $2,832, with a series of high-volatility, full-bodied weekly candles that completely absorbed the supply in the $3,050–3,140 area. The breakout of previous weekly and monthly highs confirmed a bullish structural shift, with a natural technical target around $3,450—its recent all-time high. Price reacted precisely to previously tested demand blocks, suggesting that buy-side pressure may still have room to expand. However, a deeper look at COT data reveals a more complex picture: Money Managers’ net positions on GOLD have been declining sharply for months, diverging from price action. This may indicate a rally driven more by retail flows or ETFs than by institutional strength, making it potentially unstable. Additionally, the COT report on the Dollar Index shows growing net long positions among leveraged traders, signaling USD strength—historically a headwind for gold. In summary, gold remains technically bullish with room to climb to $3,450, but COT data raises a red flag: if institutional positions don’t realign with the move, this rally could turn out to be a bull trap. From a trading perspective, there’s room for aggressive longs, but only with tight risk management.
OANDA:XAUUSD
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
USD/JPY in Free Fall: What’s Behind the Break Below 140?🔍 Technical Analysis – USD/JPY The weekly chart shows a sharp rejection in the macro zone between 155–158, where strong supply is present (highlighted in red). After brushing historical highs, USD/JPY experienced a vertical drop down to 140, decisively breaking through the key zone at 148–146. Price has now broken the weekly structure and is approaching an area that previously triggered significant rallies (blue zone between 138–141). Monthly support is in danger, with the RSI deeply in oversold territory, but no clear reversal signals just yet. 📊 COT Report – USD Index Asset Managers: Slight recovery on long positions, but still in neutral territory. Leverage Money: Increasing net shorts, indicating speculative bets against the dollar. The divergence between the falling USD Index and speculative positions confirms a growing lack of confidence in the greenback. 📊 COT Report – JPY Futures Asset Managers: Strong increase in long positions on the yen since December 2024. Leverage Money: Reinforcing long bias since February 2025. This confirms that institutional players are accumulating yen, possibly anticipating BoJ interventions or a broader flight-to-safety. 💥 Trade Outlook USD/JPY is in full bearish breakout mode. If the 140 level breaks decisively, the next technical targets are: 137.00 → historical mid-level support 134.00 → base of the 2023 structure Keep an eye on the RSI: a bullish divergence with strong volume could trigger a technical rebound. But as long as the overall sentiment remains strongly risk-off, every rally is a selling opportunity.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
USDCAD Ready to Collapse? COT Signals a Bearish Storm!🔎 1. COT Context – Canadian Dollar (CAD) Asset Managers: Consistently net short for most of the period, but since January 2025, there's been a strong recovery—net positions have become progressively less negative. By mid-April, they’re still short, but significantly less so. Leveraged Money: Also heavily short in December 2024, but showing a clear bullish reversal starting in early 2025, with net positions turning increasingly positive on CAD. ✅ Interpretation: There's been a clear sentiment shift from bearish to bullish on CAD starting late 2024. This adds downward pressure on USDCAD. 💵 2. COT Context – US Dollar Index (USD) Asset Managers: Consistently long, but reducing their net exposure since late March 2025. Leveraged Money: Opposite of CAD – heavily short in December 2024, now recovering, though without strong momentum. Positions are hovering around neutral. ⚠️ Interpretation: While CAD grows stronger, USD shows signs of indecision or profit-taking. This amplifies the bearish bias on USDCAD. 📉 3. Technical Analysis – USDCAD Current Price: 1.38369, right near a strong demand zone between 1.3700 – 1.3830, which has already been tested multiple times. The current weekly candle is forming a doji or pin bar, hinting at a potential technical bounce. Key Resistance: 1.45215 (monthly high). Key Support: 1.3700. A breakdown below this could trigger a move toward 1.3480. RSI: Neutral to slightly bearish, no major divergences observed. 🧠 Technical Outlook: If the 1.3700–1.3830 zone holds, we might see a corrective bounce toward 1.4000–1.4100. If that zone breaks, expect a bearish continuation toward 1.3580–1.3480. 📊 Trade Summary Fundamental Bias (COT): Bearish USDCAD → Strong CAD, weakening USD. Technical Bias: Neutral to bearish, potential for short-term bounce before continuation. 🧭 Trade Plan 🎯 Short on pullback toward 1.4000–1.4100 with stop above 1.4150, targeting 1.3600–1.3500. 🎯 Breakout trade below 1.3700 → Enter on daily close confirmation, target 1.3480.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
GBP/USD in terminal phase? This zone could flip everything!📊 Technical Analysis Price is currently trading in a strong weekly/monthly resistance zone around 1.3390–1.3400, marked by a dense multi-layer supply area. Historically, this level has caused sharp rejections. From the lows, price completed a steep bullish leg, breaking through several structures. However: Momentum seems overstretched. RSI shows potential overbought signals. There's a likely bearish target zone between 1.2950 and 1.2850, which is a key demand area. 📌 Trade Setup: I’m watching for exhaustion signals or bearish confirmations on H1 to short from the current resistance, targeting the grey and turquoise zones below 1.30. 🧾 COT Report – GBP Large Speculators (Asset Managers) still hold a net short position, although they've reduced exposure in recent months. Leverage Funds remain slightly long, but without strong conviction. 💵 COT Report – USD Leverage Funds have turned significantly net long on the dollar (strong green line upward since March). This supports a bearish view on GBP/USD, as USD strength returns. 📉 Summary: Price is at a key decision zone. A technical correction is possible. COT data supports this view: GBP remains weak on the institutional side. USD is regaining strength.
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
EUR/NZD About to Explode? Traders Are Watching THIS Level!📊 General Analysis of EUR/NZD (Higher Timeframe) 1. 📌 Price Context The price had a strong bounce from a demand zone (highlighted in light blue) around 1.85. It then broke through multiple supply zones (gray and maroon) to the upside and is currently hovering near 1.91874. 🔍 Key Zones 🔵 Demand Zone (Support) Range: 1.8430 – 1.8712 This zone has been tested multiple times, with long wicks to the downside → indicating strong buying interest. A powerful bullish move originated from this area. 🔴 Supply Zone (Resistance) Current resistance: 1.9187 – 1.9450 This is where the price is currently paused → potential rejection area. Monthly upper zone (1M): 1.96 – 2.00 A strong long-term resistance. If reached, we might see profit-taking or even a reversal. 🕯️ Candles & Momentum The large green candle represents a strong bullish breakout. The weekly candle (labeled "1W") shows indecision → this could be a pause before continuation or the beginning of a pullback. 🔮 Possible Future Scenarios ✅ Bullish Scenario If the price decisively breaks above 1.9187, the next target is 1.9600 – 2.0000. ⚠️ Bearish Scenario If price gets rejected at current levels, it may fall back into the support zone 1.8712 – 1.8500, which has previously shown strength. 📈 Lower Indicator (Likely RSI or Wavetrend) Currently bouncing from an oversold area. No clear overbought signals → there’s room for more upside. 🧭 Conclusion Current trend: Bullish (especially in the short to mid term). Key levels to watch: Resistance: 1.9187 and 1.96–2.00 Support: 1.8712 and 1.85
Short
by EdgeTradingJourney
1
Crude Oil Holds at Key ResistanceFollowing a sharp rebound from the $55 low—mirroring broader market strength and gains in U.S. indices—oil is now hovering near a key resistance level at $64. Meanwhile, major U.S. indices remain below their respective resistance zones, awaiting confirmation of further uptrends. A sustained break and hold above $64 could open the door for additional upside toward $66 and $70. On the downside, if gains fail to hold and prices slip back below $64, support levels to watch are $60, $58, and $55. A decisive break below $55 may trigger a steeper decline, potentially driving oil prices back toward the $49 per barrel region. Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
FOREXCOM:USOIL
by FOREXcom