The quinquennial Bear Trap: Oil’s Next Leg DownIn this video I cover the potential for oil to trade down into the 55 $ range and what confluences we have at this price region .
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Opec
Crude Oil Week AheadFrom a weekly time frame perspective, oil prices have continued to respect the boundaries of a declining channel since the 2022 highs, reaching three-year lows in 2025, in alignment with the long-standing support zone between $64 and $66 that has held since 2021.
After recently rebounding from the $65 level, a decisive close below $63.80 would confirm further downside potential, opening the way toward key support levels at $60, $55, and, in more extreme scenarios, $49.
If the support zone holds, resistance levels within the declining channel may come into play at $70.80, $72.60, $74.30, and $76. A breakout above the channel’s upper boundary and a sustained hold above $78 could shift the outlook to bullish, with potential resistance at $80, $84, $89, and the $93–$95 range.
Despite a complex mix of OPEC quotas, U.S. policy shifts, Chinese economic dynamics, global growth uncertainty, renewable energy demand, and escalating geopolitical tensions, oil remains bearish and range-bound—awaiting a decisive breakout.
Written by Razan Hilal, CMT
USD/CAD: Rebound Above 1.4265 or Imminent Drop?📊 Market Context
The USD/CAD exchange rate has shown recent volatility with a significant surge followed by a retracement phase. The market is reacting to expectations regarding decisions from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Canada (BoC), as well as fluctuations in oil prices, a key factor for the Canadian dollar.
🔍 Technical Analysis
The chart analysis highlights the following key levels:
Main Resistance: 1.4521 → Located in the upper zone of the chart, this level could act as a barrier to further bullish movements.
Key Supports: 1.4333 - 1.4265 - 1.4239 → These levels have previously acted as bounce points and could provide a base for price recovery.
Market Structure: The price reacted with a strong green candle after testing the lower support area, followed by a correction phase.
Bullish Momentum: If the price holds above 1.4265, it could attempt another push towards 1.4521.
📌 Potential Bullish Scenario: If the price remains above 1.4265, we could see another push towards 1.45 and beyond.
📌 Bearish Scenario: A break below 1.4239 could trigger a sharper decline towards the 1.41 - 1.40 range.
🌍 Fundamental Analysis
Federal Reserve: The Fed is assessing the impact of its monetary policies, with markets speculating on a potential rate cut by mid-year.
Bank of Canada: The BoC maintains a cautious approach, monitoring inflation and the labor market.
Oil Prices: The CAD is correlated with oil prices, so an increase in crude oil could strengthen the Canadian dollar and push USD/CAD lower.
🎯 Conclusion
Main Bias: Bullish above 1.4265, targeting 1.45.
Trend Invalidation: Below 1.4239, a potential downward correction could occur.
Will Mixed Geopolitical News Limit the Downside of Oil Prices?Macro:
- Oil prices continued their decline following an agreement between the US and Russia to halt attacks on energy infrastructure, though without implementing a complete ceasefire.
- The market turned bearish amid expectations that Russian sanctions may be eased, potentially increasing the oil supply surplus.
- Uncertainty lingered as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East sent mixed signals. While the possibility of increased supply pushed prices down, fears of conflict disrupting oil production kept some upward pressure.
Technical:
- USOIL retested its descending channel's upper bound before rejecting the boundary and forming a bearish Engulfing Candlestick, which may provide a hint that bears are in control. The price is below both EMAs, indicating persistent bearish momentum.
- Breaking below the support at 65.80 may prompt another plunge to the 100% Fibonacci Extension at 64.00.
- Closing above 68.40 and breaking the descending channel's upper bound may shift the current structure sideways before retesting the following resistance at 70.20.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
USD/JPY Direction 151 After the BoJ📊 Market Context
As of March 18, 2025, the USD/JPY exchange rate stands around 149.38, reaching its highest level since March 5. This movement is driven by expectations regarding upcoming monetary policy decisions from both the Bank of Japan (BoJ) and the U.S. Federal Reserve.
🔍 Technical Analysis
The technical analysis of USD/JPY highlights the following key points:
Current Trend: USD/JPY shows a moderate recovery, with a 0.49% increase on March 17.
Key Resistance: The area between 150.00 and 151.00 represents a significant resistance level. A decisive breakout above this zone could pave the way for further gains.
Important Supports: Support levels are found at 148.00 and 146.50. A drop below these levels could indicate a deeper correction.
Technical Indicators: Moving averages and key oscillators suggest a short-term bullish trend.
🌍 Fundamental Analysis
Several fundamental factors are influencing the USD/JPY exchange rate:
BoJ Decision: The Bank of Japan recently raised its key interest rate from 0.25% to 0.5%, citing higher wages and rising inflation. However, for today's meeting, the BoJ is expected to keep rates unchanged while assessing the impact of global trade tensions on the Japanese economy.
U.S. Monetary Policy: The Federal Reserve is expected to keep interest rates stable in the upcoming meeting, with the Fed Funds rate projected to remain between 4.25% and 4.5%.
Trade Tensions: U.S. trade policies under the Trump administration are creating economic uncertainties, influencing central bank decisions and currency markets.
🎯 Conclusion
USD/JPY is currently in a consolidation phase near recent highs. If the BoJ maintains an accommodative monetary policy and the Fed keeps rates stable, the dollar could continue strengthening against the yen, targeting the key resistance level of 151.00. However, uncertainties related to trade tensions and future central bank actions require close monitoring by investors.
EUR/USD Direction 1.10 - Technical and Fundamental Analysis📊 Market Context
As of March 18, 2025, EUR/USD is in a strong bullish expansion phase, with the price testing significant resistance levels. The US dollar remains solid, but market attention is focused on the Federal Reserve and the ECB, with expectations of more accommodative monetary policies in the coming months.
🔍 Technical Analysis
The chart analysis reveals a bullish trend with the following key points:
Main Resistance: 1.0912 - 1.10 area (potential reversal zone highlighted in red on the chart).
Key Supports: 1.0822 (former resistance now acting as support), 1.0360, and 1.0283 (deeper support levels highlighted in yellow).
Market Structure: The price has tested the monthly resistance around 1.0912 and entered a potential reversal zone where significant price reactions are expected.
Bullish Momentum: The trend shows strong bullish candles, indicating a possible continuation toward 1.10.
📌 Possible Scenario: If EUR/USD decisively breaks 1.0912 and closes above 1.10, there could be room for a further rally toward 1.12.
📌 Alternative Scenario: A rejection at resistance and a close below 1.0822 could trigger a bearish correction toward 1.0360.
🌍 Fundamental Analysis
US Data: Consumer confidence in the United States has dropped to its lowest level since November 2022, increasing the likelihood of a Fed rate cut by June.
Monetary Policy: The ECB is maintaining a more neutral stance, while the Fed may be forced to cut rates faster to support the economy.
Capital Flow: The market is anticipating US dollar weakness due to the outlook for rate cuts, supporting a possible euro appreciation.
🎯 Conclusion
Main Bias: Bullish above 1.0822, targeting 1.10 and beyond.
Trend Invalidation: Below 1.0360, the bullish trend would weaken.
EUR/USD could consolidate in this area before breaking above 1.10. The future direction will depend on upcoming central bank statements and macroeconomic data.
Nasdaq 100 (NQ1!) - Key Levels and Market Outlook 📌 Market Structure
🔹 Key Support Zone (~19,170 USD)
The price recently bounced off this level, which has acted as a significant support area.
The highlighted gray-blue zone represents a demand area where buyers stepped in.
🔹 Intermediate Resistance (~19,800 - 20,200 USD)
The price is currently testing this zone, which was previously a key breakdown area.
A strong rejection here could push the index back towards the 19,170 USD support.
🔹 Major Supply Zone (~21,500 - 22,400 USD)
The previous peak around 22,400 USD saw strong selling pressure, leading to a sharp drop.
The red-shaded area represents a heavy supply zone where sellers were dominant.
📉 Bearish Scenario
A rejection at 19,800 - 20,200 USD could lead to another retest of 19,170 USD.
A break below 19,170 USD would expose the index to further downside, possibly towards 18,500 - 18,200 USD.
📈 Bullish Scenario
A break and close above 19,800 - 20,200 USD could trigger a move towards 21,000 - 21,500 USD.
A sustained breakout above 22,400 USD would invalidate the bearish structure and signal a continuation of the uptrend.
🔎 Conclusion:
The Nasdaq is at a pivotal moment, hovering around key resistance at 19,800 - 20,200 USD.
A breakout or rejection from this zone will determine the short-term direction.
Key factors to watch include economic data, Fed policy, and overall market sentiment.
USOIL Market Outlook – Key Levels and Scenarios📌 Market Structure
🔹 Key Support Zone (~64.50 - 65.30 USD)
The price has tested this area multiple times, highlighted by the red dashed line at the bottom.
A pronounced lower wick suggests a possible exhaustion of bearish pressure.
🔹 Intermediate Resistance (~68.20 - 70.00 USD)
The price has reacted to this zone, which appears to be a former support turned resistance.
Caution is needed for potential rejections in this range.
🔹 Liquidity and Wider Supply Zone (~75.00 - 80.00 USD)
This area, marked with red/purple gradients, represents a selling zone with a high concentration of orders.
The price could be drawn to this level if the bullish phase continues.
📉 Bearish Scenario
Failure to break above 68.20 - 70.00 USD could lead to a retest of 64.50 - 65.30 USD.
A breakdown below this level could open the way toward 62.40 - 60.00 USD.
📈 Bullish Scenario
A weekly close above 68.20 - 70.00 USD could trigger a recovery toward 75.00 - 77.00 USD.
A breakout above 80.00 USD would invalidate the long-term bearish structure.
🔎 Conclusion:
The price is currently at a critical stage around 68 USD, with potential for a pullback.
Monitoring the reaction between 65.30 - 68.20 USD will be key in determining the next direction.
Volume and macroeconomic factors (OPEC, oil inventories, Fed policies) will be crucial in confirming the trend.
Crude Oil: Is There More Downside?Following crude oil’s rebound from its September 2024 low of $65.20, the risk of a reversal remains uncertain amid ongoing bearish pressures.
Key Events This Week:
Chinese deflation risks
OPEC monthly report
US CPI data
Trade war developments
Potential Scenarios:
🔻 Bearish Scenario:
A clean break below $65 could extend losses toward $63.80, a key level that may determine whether the market holds neutral and rebounds or breaks further into a steeper bearish trend towards $62, $60, and $55 (the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the 2020–2022 uptrend).
🔺 Bullish Scenario:
If the rebound sustains above $67, resistance levels at $68.70, $70.80, and $72.50 could come back into play.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
CAD/JPY Analysis – Key Levels & Market Drivers📉 Bearish Context & Key Resistance Levels:
Major Resistance at 108.32
Price previously rejected from this strong supply zone.
Moving averages (yellow & red lines) are acting as dynamic resistance.
Short-term Resistance at 106.00-107.00
Failed bullish attempt, leading to a strong reversal.
A break above this area is needed to shift momentum bullishly.
📈 Bullish Context & Key Support Levels:
Support at 102.00-101.50 (Demand Zone)
Significant buyer interest in this area.
If the price reaches this zone, a potential bounce could occur.
Deeper Support at 99.00-100.00
If 102.00 fails, the next demand level is in the high 90s, marking a critical long-term support.
📉 Current Market Outlook:
CAD/JPY is in a strong downtrend, consistently making lower highs and lower lows.
The price is testing key support areas, and further movement depends on upcoming economic events.
A potential bounce could occur at 102.00, but failure to hold could trigger further declines toward 99.00.
📰 Fundamental Analysis & Market Drivers
🔹 Bank of Canada (BoC) Interest Rate Decision – March 12, 2025
Expected rate cut from 3.00% to 2.75% → Bearish for CAD.
A dovish stance signals weakness in the Canadian economy, potentially pushing CAD/JPY lower.
If the BoC provides an aggressive rate cut or hints at further easing, the downtrend could continue.
🔹 Japan Current Account (January) – March 7, 2025
Expected at 370B JPY (significantly lower than previous 1077.3B JPY).
A lower-than-expected surplus may weaken JPY, slightly offsetting CAD weakness.
If JPY remains strong despite this data, CAD/JPY could fall further toward 101.50-100.00.
📈 Potential Trading Setups:
🔻 Short Setup (Bearish Bias):
Entry: Below 103.00, confirming further weakness.
Target 1: 102.00
Target 2: 100.00
Stop Loss: Above 104.50 to avoid volatility spikes.
🔼 Long Setup (Bullish Scenario - Retracement Play):
Entry: Strong bullish rejection from 102.00
Target 1: 105.00
Target 2: 108.00
Stop Loss: Below 101.50 to limit downside risk.
📌 Final Thoughts:
The BoC rate decision will likely be bearish for CAD, increasing downward pressure on CAD/JPY.
The Japan Current Account data could provide temporary support for JPY but is unlikely to fully reverse the trend.
102.00-101.50 is a key buying zone, while failure to hold could drive the pair toward 99.00-100.00.
🚨 Key Watch Zones: 102.00 Support & 108.00 Resistance – Strong moves expected!
XAU/USD Analysis & Market Insights📉 Bearish Context & Key Resistance Levels:
Major Resistance at 2,934.00
Strong supply zone where price has previously rejected.
Multiple tests of this area indicate seller pressure.
Short-term Resistance at 2,920-2,925
Price is consolidating near this zone.
A rejection could lead to a downward move.
📈 Bullish Context & Key Support Levels:
Support at 2,846.88 - 2,832.72 (Demand Zone)
Strong reaction zone where buyers stepped in.
Previous price action suggests liquidity in this area.
Deeper Support at 2,720-2,680
If 2,832 breaks, this is the next key demand area.
Aligned with moving averages, adding confluence.
📉 Current Market Outlook:
Price recently bounced from the 2,846-2,832 support, showing buyers’ presence.
However, the 2,920-2,925 area is acting as resistance.
If the price fails to break higher, a move back toward 2,846 or even 2,720 is possible.
📈 Potential Trading Setups:
🔻 Short Setup (Bearish Bias):
Entry: Below 2,920 after a clear rejection.
Target 1: 2,846
Target 2: 2,832, with possible extension to 2,720.
Stop Loss: Above 2,935 to avoid fakeouts.
🔼 Long Setup (Bullish Scenario):
Entry: Break and hold above 2,934.00 with confirmation.
Target 1: 2,960
Target 2: 3,000+
Stop Loss: Below 2,915 to minimize risk.
📰 Fundamental Analysis & Market Drivers
1️⃣ US ISM Services PMI & ADP Jobs Report:
The ISM Services PMI increased to 53.5, signaling stronger services inflation and employment.
However, the ADP Employment Report showed a disappointing 77K jobs, far below the expected 140K, weighing on the USD.
2️⃣ Trump’s Tariffs & USD Weakness:
Trump announced massive tariffs on trade partners, affecting risk sentiment.
While he downplayed negative effects, US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick hinted at potential tariff rollbacks, boosting risk appetite.
This weakened the USD, allowing gold to rise.
3️⃣ Upcoming ECB Decision:
The ECB is expected to cut rates by 25 bps on Thursday, which could further impact market sentiment and gold’s direction.
If the rate cut weakens the EUR, gold could see more upside.
📌 Final Thoughts:
2,920-2,925 remains a key resistance for short-term direction.
A break above 2,934 could signal bullish continuation.
A rejection from current levels could push price back toward 2,846 or lower.
Fundamentals favor gold's strength as the USD weakens due to poor job data and trade uncertainty.
🚀 Key Decision Zone: Watch price action near 2,920-2,925!
Oil Under Pressure Amid Tariff Tensions and OPEC+ UncertaintyMacro:
- Oil prices stabilised after hitting multi-month lows as the market weighed potential output increases in Apr and escalating tariff tensions among Canada, Mexico, China, and the EU.
- Meanwhile, the halted US military aid to the Eastern Europe conflict, and OPEC+ production decisions continue to pressure oil.
Technical:
- USOIL remains in a downtrend, consistently making lower lows while trading below both EMAs, signalling persistent bearish momentum. However, the price is nearing the oversold zone, supported by multiple key levels.
- If USOIL continues declining, it may retest 66.90 and 65.80, aligning with the 78.6% Fibonacci Extension.
- Conversely, holding above 66.90 could lead to a short-term sideways movement, with a potential retest at 70.20, confluence with EMA21, and the descending channel’s upper bound.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Oil Drops Below $68 Amid Trade Wars and Oversupply RisksCrude Oil drops on oversupply risks and weakening demand expectations
Key Events:
- Trade wars between the world’s largest economies heightens inflation and economic contraction risks
- OPEC plans to unwind supply cuts in April despite oversupply concerns.
- Trump - Ukraine dispute may disrupt oil's bearish trend if tensions escalate with the EU and Russia.
Key Levels:
Oil eyes a 4-year support zone ($63.80–$66), and the potential for the consolidation to extend above that zone persists.
- A close below $63.80 may extend declines to $61.50, $60, and $55 (aligning with the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement of the 2020-2022 uptrend.
- A hold above $68.80 could cap gains at $70.50, $73.50, and $75.
Upside potential on Oil is expected to remain short-lived given the bearish implications of trade wars in tandem with oil's 2022 - 2025 dominant downtrend. A clean close above 78-80 zone may reinforce longer term bullish expectations.
- Razan Hilal, CMT
So far, so good... WTI oil price continues to please the bears. So far, the our stance is unchanged, we remain somewhat bearish on the price of MARKETSCOM:OIL in the near-term. That said, certain criteria still need to be met for us to get comfortable with further declines, especially from the technical side. Let's dig in!
TVC:USOIL
Let us know what you think in the comments below.
Thank you.
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GBP/CAD Analysis – Key Levels & Trade Scenarios📊 Timeframe: Weekly (1W) | Current Price: ~1.8391
📈 Bullish Context:
Resistance at 1.8391:
Price is testing a strong supply zone (dark red area).
A breakout above this level could open the door to further upside.
Support at 1.8233 & 1.7677:
1.8233: Short-term support where buyers have stepped in.
1.7677: Major support level, previously tested multiple times.
📉 Current Outlook:
Price has aggressively moved up, breaking through previous resistances.
Approaching a critical resistance area, where rejection is possible.
If a rejection occurs, a retracement toward 1.8233 or 1.7677 could be seen.
📈 Trade Setups:
🔼 Long (Breakout Play):
Entry: Above 1.8400 with confirmation.
Target 1: 1.8600
Target 2: 1.8800
Stop Loss: Below 1.8230 to avoid fakeouts.
🔻 Short (Rejection Scenario):
Entry: Bearish rejection from 1.8391 with confirmation.
Target 1: 1.8233
Target 2: 1.7677
Stop Loss: Above 1.8450.
📌 Final Thoughts:
GBP/CAD is at a critical resistance; a breakout could lead to new highs.
A rejection would confirm a pullback toward support levels.
Key macroeconomic data may impact momentum and direction.
GBP/JPY Analysis – Key Levels & Trade Scenarios📊 Timeframe: Weekly (1W) | Current Price: ~189.90
📉 Bearish Context:
Resistance at 192.04:
Strong supply zone (red rectangle) where price previously reversed.
Aligned with moving averages (likely 50 & 100 periods), acting as dynamic resistance.
Support at 184.63:
Marked in blue as a significant demand zone.
Historical reaction area, where buyers may step in again.
📉 Current Outlook:
Price rejected 192.04, forming a bearish structure.
Price currently consolidating below resistance, indicating weakness.
If selling pressure continues, a move toward 184.63 is likely.
📈 Trade Setups:
🔻 Short (Bearish Bias):
Entry: Below 189.50 with a bearish confirmation.
Target 1: 186.00
Target 2: 184.63
Stop Loss: Above 192.00 to avoid fakeouts.
🔼 Long (Reversal Play):
Entry: Strong bullish reaction from 184.63.
Target: Retest of 192.04, with SL below 184.00.
📌 Final Thoughts:
The bearish trend remains dominant unless 192.04 is broken.
A clean break below 189.50 strengthens the bearish outlook.
Macro factors and volatility could influence upcoming price action.
EUR/USD Bearish Outlook – Key Levels & Trade Setups📊 Technical Analysis EUR/USD
Timeframe: Likely Weekly (1W)
Current Price: ~1.0416
📉 Bearish Context:
Key Resistance: 1.05290
This zone has been tested multiple times without a breakout, indicating strong selling pressure.
It aligns with a liquidity area visible in the red rectangle.
Also near the yellow moving average (likely 50 or 100 periods), acting as dynamic resistance.
Key Support: 1.02838
Marked in blue as a potential short-term target.
A level that previously provided support and may attract buyers again.
📉 Current Scenario:
The price has rejected the 1.0529 resistance with a strong bearish candle.
A breakdown from the gray zone suggests a potential continuation downward.
If selling pressure persists, the 1.02838 target could be reached.
📈 Potential Trading Strategies:
🔻 Short Scenario (Bearish Bias):
Entry: Below 1.0430 after confirmation with a daily bearish close.
Target 1: 1.02838
Target 2: Below 1.0200 (depending on price action).
Stop Loss: Above 1.0500 (to avoid false breakouts).
🔼 Long Scenario (Less Likely Bullish Setup):
Entry: Confirmed bounce above 1.02838 with a strong reversal candle.
Target: Retest of 1.0529, with a stop below 1.0280.
📌 Final Considerations:
The current structure favors a short-term bearish continuation.
Key areas (support and resistance) will be crucial for the next move.
Watch for macroeconomic data and volatility, as they could impact the trend.
S&P 500: Rejection at Resistance and Potential Downside RisksThe chart shows a clear rejection from a key resistance zone around 6,150 points, highlighted by the red area. After an attempt to break through, the price faced strong bearish pressure, falling back below the 6,100 level. The current retracement has led the price to test the 50-day moving average (yellow), which has so far provided temporary support. However, breaking this structure could increase the risk of a sharper decline toward the intermediate support at 5,924, marked by the dashed yellow line.
Recent macroeconomic releases, such as the decline in retail sales and weakening consumer confidence, are weighing on market sentiment, increasing pressure on stock indices. Additionally, uncertainty related to tariffs proposed by the U.S. administration is adding volatility, with investors showing signs of risk aversion. If the price fails to quickly recover the 6,100-6,150 area, the next bearish target could be the more structured support zone at 5,850-5,800, identified by the lower blue area.
In summary, the technical structure reflects a moment of uncertainty with a clear rejection from the weekly resistance. A recovery above 6,100 could bring buyers back in control, while further weakness would open the door to new declines toward lower support levels.
USD/JPY: Liquidity Grab Below Weekly LowThe chart shows that the price has grabbed liquidity below the weekly low, potentially triggering a bullish reaction. Analyzing the current USD/JPY situation, recent economic data highlights bearish pressure on the dollar due to declining consumer confidence in the U.S. and expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, while the yen is strengthening on the back of more solid economic indicators. Technically, the price has rejected a key demand zone and remains below the psychological threshold of 150.00, which acts as a crucial resistance. If the price confirms a bullish structure on lower timeframes, we could see an upward move towards the 152.00-152.50 area, aligning with a supply zone and moving average confluence. However, a close below recent lows could invalidate this outlook, paving the way for a further drop toward the next support at 146.00.
EUR/USD Faces Key Resistance Amid Liquidity Grab ExpectationsEUR/USD is undergoing a pullback after reaching a one-month high of 1.0528, closing at 1.04658 on February 24, marking a 0.22% decline from the previous day. The euro's recent strength was driven by post-election stability in Germany, where centrist parties formed a coalition government, boosting market confidence. However, bullish momentum has stalled near key resistance levels around 1.0530 and 1.0560, with the pair struggling to sustain gains above the 100-day simple moving average.
From a technical standpoint, the price is approaching a significant supply zone, where a liquidity grab could occur before a potential downside move. Resistance in this area aligns with broader concerns over Germany's economic outlook and coalition negotiations, which could weaken the euro’s appeal. Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar, despite recent weakness due to declining consumer confidence, remains in a favorable position for a short-term recovery, adding further pressure on EUR/USD.
If the pair fails to break through resistance, a rejection could trigger a decline toward 1.0400, with further downside potential extending to 1.0283. Conversely, if buyers manage to push past the liquidity zone, the next upside targets lie at 1.0530 and 1.0560.
GBP/USD: Bullish Momentum Faces Key ResistanceGBP/USD has reached its highest point since mid-December at 1.2690, primarily driven by the weakness of the US dollar. The pair has shown strong momentum, and as long as it holds above the key support at 1.2520, analysts see potential for further upside toward 1.2725. Positive UK economic data, including better-than-expected retail sales and inflation figures, have reinforced a bullish outlook for the pound. However, minor retracements have been observed, with slight declines following recent gains, such as the 0.05% drop on February 24. Market volatility remains a factor, with geopolitical tensions and fluctuating commodity prices impacting the dollar’s strength. From a technical standpoint, the price is currently testing a resistance zone while approaching key moving averages, which could act as dynamic resistance. The presence of supply zones above suggests that the pair could face selling pressure before a potential continuation higher. If the price fails to sustain above the resistance area, a retracement toward the 1.2520 level and possibly deeper into the 1.2400 region could materialize. Despite the recent bullish momentum, caution is warranted due to broader market uncertainties, and future movements will depend on economic indicators from both the UK and the US, as well as overall market sentiment.
EUR/GBP: Key Support Test Amid Bearish PressureThe analysis of EUR/GBP as of February 24, 2025, presents an interesting technical outlook. The price is testing a key support area around 0.8297 after a modest recovery from the 0.8271 lows. The current setup suggests a potential reaction in this zone, with the possibility of a technical rebound towards higher levels or a more significant bearish breakdown.
From a technical perspective, several key areas stand out: the upper resistance in the 0.8440-0.8460 range represents a critical level for a bullish recovery, while the lower support around 0.8265-0.8240 could act as a catalyst for further downside momentum if broken. Moving average analysis indicates persistent bearish pressure, with both the 50 and 200-period moving averages sloping downward. This reinforces the idea that, despite recent rebounds, the dominant trend remains bearish in the medium term.
From a macroeconomic standpoint, expectations regarding the UK and Eurozone economic outlook are shaping the pair's direction. UK inflation is showing signs of recovery, providing some support for the pound, but uncertainties related to economic growth and Bank of England policies could hinder a sustained strengthening of the British currency. On the other hand, the Eurozone is facing challenges linked to growth stagnation, and the ECB may maintain an accommodative policy to stimulate the economy. These factors create an unstable balance that could lead to heightened volatility in the coming days.
Technical forecasts suggest two possible scenarios: a temporary rebound towards 0.8340-0.8360 before another test of the lows or a direct break below 0.8265, which could open the door for a decline towards 0.8240-0.8220.
GOLD| Approaching Historic Highs Amid Geopolitical UncertaintyThe analysis of XAU/USD highlights a strong bullish trend, closing at approximately $2,939.41 on February 20, 2025, marking a 0.23% increase from the previous day. The recent high of $2,946.83 on February 19 indicates continued positive momentum, driven by geopolitical tensions, inflation concerns, and fears of potential trade wars, all of which have strengthened gold’s status as a safe-haven asset. The current momentum has pushed prices toward historic levels, with the potential to surpass $3,000, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar and declining U.S. yields. The chart shows a key resistance zone around $2,960, with a potential retracement towards the $2,880 area, identified as the first major support level. The current price action suggests a possible pullback before another breakout attempt. If the price consolidates above $2,900, it could accelerate towards new highs, while a break below $2,880 may drive the price toward the next support level around $2,840. The overall outlook remains bullish, with investor interest fueled by global uncertainties and the increasing demand for gold as a hedge against economic risks.
