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Oil: OPEC+ sticking to raise output from MayThe originally scheduled 4/28 (3) OPEC+ ministerial meeting was held ahead of schedule on 4/27. The resolution was held on hold and was in line with market expectations. The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures remained stood at the prices of $63 and $66 per barrel respectively. MM Analysis On Tuesday evening, the OPEC JMMC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (providing OPEC policy advice) recommended to maintain the agreement reached at the beginning of April (gradually increase in output by 350k, 350k, and 440k barrels per day from May to July). With the consent of 23 member states, the originally scheduled 4/28 OPEC+ ministerial meeting was also held ahead of schedule, and the resolution was held on hold and was in line with market expectations. WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices stood at $63 and $66 per barrel respectively. Although the world’s important crude oil importing countries-India, Brazil, and Japan are facing a new Covid-19 wave, creating uncertainty for the recovery of crude oil demand, the OPEC JTC (Joint Technical Committee) remains optimistic about the trend of global economic recovery, maintaining the global crude oil demand forecast for 2021 at 96.5 million barrels/day, an increase of 5.95 million barrels/day from last year, and it is estimated that the OECD commercial crude oil inventory level will be digested in July this year to below the past 5-year average. The next OPEC+ ministerial meeting is scheduled on June 1, 2021, production quotas for July and August of this year will be discussed.
NYMEX:CL1!
by MacroMicro_Global
HOLY WEEK AND NUCLEAR WEDNESDAY !! HOLY WEEK AND NUCLEAR WEDNESDAY! 10:30 p.m. Warm morning sun, some nature chirping from the birds around, a great time to enjoy a coffee. Start HOLY WEEK! Financially speaking, after a recovering Friday, it would be natural for the green to flood the Square today. And maybe it will be! But we can't help but glance over the cup of coffee at the situation of the week that seems hectic. First of all, thanks to reports, a number of world giants must be in the works. But this is not necessarily the problem, because they are expected to report well. The problem would be Wednesday, a really explosive day. Let's see why: 1. Biden's speech. Nothing can be more worrying than Biden's speech at Wednesday's joint congressional session, where he is expected to reveal the first details of his widely reported tax hike so far, planned for the wealthiest of Americans. The president of all wants an unlikely 43.4% for the richest Americans, bringing combined state and federal taxes to places like New York and California to over 50% !! No matter how difficult it will be for him to impose in the congress, in the short term the Market will react to rumors. 2. OPEC meeting Normally this meeting would sanctify the plans established a month ago if no other events happen in the last period. But ... didn't it happen ?! Well, India is the world's third largest consumer of oil, on infusions and fans literally, after a series of days with over 300k infections / 24 hours. Japan, the 4th largest consumer, also has problems with Covid ul. Iran lags behind with progress in talks with US, which may mean it will export oil again sometime in the not too distant future 3. EDF meeting Originally categorized as a NON Event, it could be an influence in various directions. Of all, I would mention the Precious Metals Market. In a long-awaited recovery, they have already stumbled at the first resistance, diverted by various external factors. One could be Powell, who enters an interview with Reuters on Tuesday, said the central bank will limit any exceeding of its inflation target. In any case, metal prices are expected to consolidate, or even decline, until Powell's post-Fed press conference. As a result, we have 3 events + quarterly reports, which can send almost any sector in almost any direction, affecting virtually the entire market. Normally, near such confluences, investors stand a little aside. Normally I said, but is it a period of normalcy !? Of course not !!! So we have 2 interesting days until Wednesday, when we hoped we would have: EVERYTHING ABNORMALLY GREEN !!!
NYSE:DOW
by Viorex
US OIL (WTI/USD) – Week 14 – Medium-term bearish.On Thursday, the OPEC+ alliance decided to gradually increase the production starting from May in order to keep crude oil prices in check. Last week, WTI corrected and almost reached the resistance target that we forecasted in our previous analysis. Next week, we expect the price to reach the resistance area highlighted on the chart, before falling towards to support area located in the mid-’50s. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
FX_IDC:USDWTIShort
by financialflagship
18
US OIL (WTI/USD) – Week 13 – Correction not over yet.WTI dropped the most since November as signs of powerful gasoline demand in the U.S. eased concerns around the global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. In our previous analysis, we correctly forecasted that the price will drop and reach the support area that we highlighted. Next week, we expect the price to “correct” towards the resistance area highlighted on the chart, before breaking the low again. This move would only act as a consolidation in the bigger timeframe and in the medium-term could push the price towards the second support zone. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
FX_IDC:USDWTIShort
by financialflagship
16
US OIL (WTI/USD) – Week 12 – Bigger degree correction.WTI dropped nearly 10% as short-term demand concerns and a rising dollar clashed to cause the biggest intraday plunge since October. For this week we expect a corrective move towards the resistance area highlighted on our chart, before resuming the downtrend and breaking the trendline. The bigger degree correction that we were expecting for a few weeks has started and we expect the price to continue dropping into the mid 50’s. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
FX_IDC:USDWTIShort
by financialflagship
20
CRUDE OIL (WTI/USD) – Week 9 – Time for a pullback?Last week, Oil recovered its previous losses and hit the $64 level. We are now forming a parallel channel at the top and it looks like the price is making small higher-highs, as this may be a hint that we are losing some momentum. It remains to be seen if we will break the lower channel line and ultimately start a bearish move that would act as a much-needed pullback that can push the price back to the $60 level. We recommend focusing on other instruments for now, as the bullish momentum is still strong and it may continue to rise. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
FX_IDC:USDWTIShort
by financialflagship
12
Brent crude soars on OPEC surpriseThursday's OPEC+ meeting became a market-mover event, as members announced that production cuts would be extended in April. This caught the market completely off guard, as OPEC+ was widely expected to raise output by 500,000 barrels per month. Instead, OPEC+ has opted to hold back some 9.2 million barrels from the market each day, until at least the beginning of May. Crude responded to the OPEC+ announcement with sharp gains. Brent crude jumped 4.84% on Thursday, its highest one-day gain in two weeks. With an additional gain of close to 1 percent on Friday, Brent crude punched above the USD 68 line for the first time since January 2020. Oil prices have soared since November 2020, with Brent crude jumping a staggering 76% during that time. The key question now for investors and traders is whether the uptrend will continue, or will we see a levelling off in oil prices. The fact that the global economy is slowly recovering from Covid-19 should translate into higher demand for crude and maintain upward pressure on oil prices. At the same time, OPEC members are notorious for not abiding by production limits, which could put a curb on higher prices. In other news on the crude oil front, the EIA Crude Oil inventories report showed a record-high surplus of 21.6 million barrels. However, this figure was distorted by the recent Texas storm, which resulted in huge stockpiles due to refiners being unable to take on crude shipments. Prior to today's EIA release, nine of the past 11 readings have shown drawdowns, and with significant pent-up demand in the US economy, this trend could well continue. Brent crude has broken above resistance at the overnight high of 67.72 and double top, with the next resistance at 71.52, which has held since May 2019. Support is distant between USD62.03 and USD62.48.
FX_IDC:USDBRO
by OANDA
USD/CAD - Heading For a Correction?The dollar has been in a long term downtrend against the loonie but that may be about to change. The greenback came back into favour on Friday after a period of softness which saw it fall to its lowest level against its Canadian counterpart for around three years. Rising oil prices can often be supportive for the Canadian dollar and likely contributed to its success over the last four months. But with the oil rally running on fumes ahead of the OPEC+ meeting, that may be about to change. With that in mind, the pair could be headed for a little correction. The 55/89 day SMA band has been something of a ceiling for the pair during the descent and with it approaching the zone now, we should find out pretty soon if that's going to be the case once more. A break above here would be a bullish signal and could set the pair up for a run at 1.30, which would be a big test. A break of this and things are suddenly looking up for the pair after a prolonged period of weakness. Of course, the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting next week could have a big impact on the pair. The group surprised us back in January and could do so again. That said, given current prices and progress towards the recovery in recent months, a repeat performance seems unlikely.
by OANDA
Brent Crude - Looking Overextended Ahead of OPEC+ MeetingOil prices have enjoyed a remarkable rally over the last four months as the world has gone from entering the most severe wave of Covid-19 to rolling out vaccines and planning its final exit from the restrictions. Efforts by OPEC+ have been key to this, including the surprise one million barrel cut from Saudi Arabia earlier in the year, which confirmed the group was committed to bringing the market back into balance even as the world starts to emerge from the pandemic. But the next phase is arguably the most challenging for the group so it's so surprise that the week before the next meeting, we're seeing momentum slipping on the daily chart, even as prices are hitting new highs. That kind of divergence is a red flag rather than a reversal signal but after such a powerful run and ahead of a meeting that could be challenging, a correction wouldn't be entirely surprising. We could still see some more gains in the near-term but the closer it gets to $70, the more interesting the momentum indicators will become, given the psychological barrier and the fact it has historically been a key level of resistance. The 4-hour chart shows that price is currently quite extended, with it being quite far from the moving averages compared to where it's traded the last few months. A move back towards the 55/89 SMA band would be very interesting, with it having been a key support zone all the way up. There have been small moves below at times but broadly speaking, it has been a key reversal point. A break below this could signal a larger correction, although that may well depend on the outcome of next week's meeting and how positive investors stay in the face of rising yields.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by OANDA
USDCAD - What's next!?Loonie - USDCAD - Trade idea! It's called Loonie for reason, not my favourite pair but I do great potential both sides of this trade idea. This will be very interesting as we had great amount of energy from WSB dominating the market, will it be the same this week? I suppose it - Equites will decline further will given the headlines out: JPMorgan to pay $920 million for manipulating precious metals, treasury market! Technical aspects of Silver does look very attractive. I will post that idea privately - If you're interesting in XAGUSD Silver developments message privately for my aspects. Fundamental Aspects: The data-flow in Canada has continued to be on the positive side as the monthly GDP numbers for November showed a 0.7% increase, this week data jobs market data come into focus. Canadian employment numbers have outperformed and any improvements on the OPEC members meeting will be interesting that could shift CAD in either direction. Technical Aspect: Pattern: Ascending Wedge (Medium term) Double top (Short term) Support: 1.27550, 1.27405, 1.27000, Resistance: 1.28360, 1.28800, 1.29285, 1.29860 Short term: Double top developed measured taking it towards a nice support area of Ascending Wedge to take long opportunity. How could you play the trade: - You should take the short side to support areas with confluence of pattern in play short term - Enter at nice support areas once confirmed This all depends on your trade plan execution. Key Tip: The internet is a wonderful gift and time is too, combine both can generate great amount of wealth if used wisely. Have a great week ahead Best wishes, Trade Journal (Just trade ideas, not a recommendation)
by Trade_Journal
Brent Crude Oil Reaches Yearly HighsBrent Crude broke a critical fundamental level of $57 a barrel, a psychological resistance that may see Brent continue to price pre-Coronavirus levels. This is likely on the news that more Americans have received at least one dose of a Coronavirus vaccine than having tested positive for the virus. The United States has been administering vaccines to citizens faster than any other country, with Bloomberg estimating the administration rate at around 1.34 Million doses a day. Oil Supply Side Providing Headwinds, Complementing Demand Strength With the demand side of Oil improving exponentially, OPEC has started to increase crude supply by 300,000 barrels to the market in January – showing their confidence in oil prices’ stability now and going forward. However, disruptions and African nations Nigeria and Libya have slightly offset the supply hike, with a leak in a fundamental pipeline in Libya alongside a suspension in deliveries in Nigeria pulling away around 110,000 barrels of supply off the market. With Brent Crudes futures month’s spreads trading at the highest backwardation in a year, alongside Royal Dutch Shell Plc purchasing the most benchmark-grade cargoes in a single day in 10 years, the physical and financial markets are showing supply tightness and demand for the Crude Oil. Analysts Are Tentatively Positive on Oil Markets Ole Hansen, head of commodities research at Saxo Bank A/S, stated that currently, the oil market is “supported by the combination of tightening fundamentals, as seen through the rising backwardation and the renewed risk appetite in the U.S stock market. Other analysts share this perspective, with Bill O’Grady, Executive Vice President at Confluence Investment Management, stating that “the market is going to see supply contract, assuming OPEC doesn’t immediately move to fill the gap.” Furthermore, Goldman Sachs’ commodity analysts estimate of 500,000 a day restriction on supply has been greatly surpassed, with the average supply deficit ranging at around the 900,000 barrels a day mark. Oil’s financial price comes from physical pressures It is important to note that with commodities and other hard asset such as Silver and Gold – the futures market may say one thing. Ultimately, however, it is what happens in the physical market that sets the final price. And in this case, the physical market for Oil is more robust than it was at the peak of the pandemic. Pair that with positive sentiment regarding the vaccine rollouts around the world and a continuation of a supply restriction by OPEC+, and you have a breeding ground for Oil to move higher.
TVC:UKOIL
by BlackBull_Markets
ridethepig | Oil for the Yearly Close📌 Oil for the Yearly Close Making the rounds...this time onto Oil and we are going to learn from it by firstly tracking our previous 'before' and 'after' the 2020 fact charts to see how the birth took place. A single glance at the Monthly and Daily is sufficient, from mapping our MT and LT charts, our ancestors, we are able to workout the directional flows in the short-term. This point of view, the crux of which can be proven ultimately by understanding which side occupies the useful pivot. In short, the 63/64 levels which we were essentially tracking as our outpost is the same strong resistance that we are heading back too from the possible thrust. The strong resistance The strength of this slingshot up lies in the fat that supply shortages are coming into play across the commodity side, OPEC will remain at the mercy to the problematic lockdowns which will continue into 2021 and most likely beyond. This is not an easy one to trade if you are not already holding longs, the test of 51 and 65 look guaranteed as only a matter of time. I would like to anticipate another test of 🔑 support at 33.7x (low chances right now) which would be an appropriate level to once again add longs in cheaper levels should we see it. Thanks as usual for keeping the feed back coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:USOILLong
by ridethepig
5
Oil markets seeing a brighter future24th February 2020 was when the last time we saw oil hovering around the $55.80 mark. The Oil markets were hammered in 2020, taking investors and traders back to their economics 101 classes. However, unlike traditional markets, the Oil markets have something traditional markets do not – controlled supply. OPEC+ controlling the supply of Oil OPEC+, a 24- country cartel, took drastic measures as of late to control the drop in oil price by restricting supply. The most recent supply cut by 1 million barrels a day by Saudi Arabia has pushed Oil markets to levels not seen since 24th February last year. Saudi’s unexpected move was on the back of the OPEC+ decision to gradually bring back supply to the market in January. However, the de-facto leader claims the Oil market throne The Energy Minister of the Oil-dependent country, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman stated that “ are the guardian of the industry”, showing their influence in the Oil markets. Oil markets getting bullish recommendations from institutions Since December, Oil prices have rebounded 18% on the vaccine’s slow rollout, peaking at around $56 a barrel. With the rollout of Vaccinations, analysts at Goldman Sachs are becoming bullish on the Black Gold, stating that they predict Brent could rise to $65 a barrel by the summer of this year, bringing the timeline half a year from their previous prediction. However, they stated that “given the magnitude of the recent rally, however, markets are likely to consolidate near-term,” Given the Coronavirus situation worldwide, the demand situation has not improved to the point where it was on the 24th February, giving the price of oil the characteristic of a forward-looking stock instead of a spot looking commodity. However, if the vaccine continues to make its way around the world and demand truly starts picking up, we may see the Oil markets return back to a relative norm.
TVC:UKOIL
by BlackBull_Markets
WTI Crude - Time for a correction?Oil prices have been on a fantastic run since early November and with reports emerging of a deal between OPEC+ members on production in February, they've been given another bump today, up close to 4% at the time of writing. That leaves WTI trading just shy of $50 once again, after running into resistance around here on Monday. A deal to keep output steady is undoubtedly good news for oil prices but how much is already priced in? Does crude have a breakout above $50 in it? The momentum indicators suggest this will be very challenging. They've already been posting lower highs on the daily chart since mid-December, after which price has made new highs. A lot of positive news is priced into oil prices now and this wave we're going through is looking far more severe than many anticipated due to new strains. The near-term risks may be to the downside in oil, although with OPEC+ monitoring the situation so closely and, importantly, acting when necessary with high compliance, any slip in prices may be limited to just a small correction. The outlook is much improved for oil prices, producers just need to navigate cautiously for a few more months. A break of yesterday's lows may signal the corrective move is underway, with the real test then coming around $46, where the 200 SMA meets support from mid-to-late December.
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by OANDA
WTI Crude - Time for a correction?Oil prices have been tearing higher since the start of November, rising more than 40% to return to far healthier levels. The rally has started to slow though and with so much good news - vaccines, OPEC+ deal, US stimulus deal (almost) - now priced in, I wonder whether we're about to see a bit of a corrective move. WTI has trended higher nicely, following the 55/89 period SMAs on the 4-hour chart and a break of this may be the first clue that it's run its course. WTI peaked just above $49 today, entering what has been a major area of support over the last couple of years before becoming resistance in early 2020. While a US stimulus deal would be positive for oil demand in the coming months, I wonder how much it is already priced in. It may give crude a small bump but would profit taking then kick in?
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by OANDA
WTI: formation similar to SPX and NasdaqHi Guys, the pullback from C continues and it's looking more and more like a continuation of the bulls run initiated back in April. From September to October WTI accumulated before rising up again in November. This accumulation period resamble a WM formation with some harmonic patterns inside (XABCD). It is very similar to the harmonic pattern unfolded by Nasdaq and SPX: Please share your views and comments below. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Cozzamara Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumstances.
FX:USOIL
by cozzamara
Oil running out of steam...A difficult call here after clearing OPEC manoeuvre. Of course the supply sacrifice was possible, but the shallow support is now completely cooked in the price. For those tracking the full OPEC moves: Of course buyers won the highs and we made some decent gains from the latest taking of the latent 46 highs. But as this price action is showing, we have to deal with profit taking and further lockdowns coming for California and etc will not help. The theory of a revisit of $41 / $40 will cast light on the extended lockdowns, covid chapter (3) and an eventual flood on supply side one more time. In the long term, we are back to the previous breakdown that we traded last Winter. The macro retrace is almost over and as sellers start to form a high, it appears that late buyers are exposed and are likely to be sent backwards. The highs did not hold, to confirm the break up was rotten we need to get back below $45. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:USOILShort
by ridethepig
8
ridethepig | OPEC, Oil and everything in-betweenA quick chart update here after reaching the 4th wave targets in a retrace; Buyers now have a definite advantage going into OPEC; an extension of the cuts will be enough to open the position towards $50. But the advantage is only tiny, as we are back at the previous breakdown from our long-term macro charts: OPEC now need to play the desperation moves with precision and genuine artistry. In my books, a master-stroke from Saudis with Iran noise there in the background incase a diversion is needed to complete the flow. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
TVC:USOILLong
by ridethepig
2