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BTC trying to bounce back but a hurricane set to cool optimismINVESTMENT CONTEXT While OPEC+ agreed to boost crude oil production in the coming months, in a gesture of reconciliation to the U.S., it still remains unclear whether Saudi Arabia, the cartel's largest producer, will agree to further isolate economically Russia BlackRock's CEO, Larry Fink, sees inflation to remain high for "years" due to the persisting effects of supply shocks After raising interest rates on April 29, the Fed is now about to kick-off the plan to shrink its USD 8.9tn balance sheet U.S. corporate profits fell the most in two years in Q1 2022; in the past year, earnings at 620 companies (of the 3,000 listed entities) fell short of interest payments — well above pre-pandemic 2019 levels President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian forces have seized a fifth of Ukraine, as the war passed the 100-day milestone Russia missed a USD 1.9mln payment, inching closer to a default that would trigger billions of CDS insurance contracts PROFZERO'S TAKE In a rollercoaster trading day, equities shook off pre-market losses to close deep into green territory. Traders are mildly attempting to restore risk-on attitude, even in the wake of Microsoft (MSFT) lowering fourth-quarter guidance for both revenue and earnings, citing unfavorable foreign exchange rates. ProfZero maintains its cool aplomb: while welcoming the prospective second straight green weekly candle, the overarching narrative still hasn't found sufficient grounding for a rebound to be called - war in Ukraine still has no clearly defined endgame, China has but started softly lifting COVID restrictions and this week showed inflation in Europe has not peaked yet. Hot summer ahead? Cruel summer, rather ProfZero is awaiting today's nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate data to see whether the real economy is keeping the upbeat tone much needed to absorb inflation; earlier indications point to slowing hiring activity coupled with companies vying for talent, even at considerably heftier wages. As shared on Step99 podcast on June 2, ProfZero reminds that the inflation equation simply can't be escaped: it's going to be paid either by companies in case they'll opt to internalize higher costs (including salaries), or by households through higher retail prices (United Nations, U.N., food price index surged 73.9% in May 2022 as compared to 2020) On June 2 Italy's natural gas distributor Snam announced it took over a 5-bcm strong regasification vessel from Golar LNG, as attempts to diversify energy supply in Europe gather pace. Other than the cost of energy itself, ProfZero is attentively looking at the freight market as a new source of possible bottlenecks: while pipelines from Russia allowed for seamless, low-cost primary transportation, the construction of brand-new seaborne supply chains will shift much market power into the hands of traders (Trafigura, Gunvor) and logistics middlemen. Speak of inflation - think of trading routes and supply-chain nodes, and you'll see who's behind it BTC testing again the high USD 30k bracket - or simply draining liquidity from altcoins? PROFONE's TAKE Following yesterday’s thoughts on lithium, ProfOne’s sees the very same pressures on nickel. The price of the metal used in stainless steel and electric-vehicle batteries gained more than 50% since the beginning of 2022, including a one-day market rout on March 8 that sent prices up 250% intraday, and had the London Metals Exchange shut trading to contain credit risk . Some stainless steel factories in Europe already had to cut production (Acerinox) on stable supply concerns. Countries are looking for ways to substitute supplies from Russia, which produces a fifth of the world’s purest-grade nickel. Thus again on de-globalization talks: around 80% of the world’s nickel processing is based in China and 60% of the world’s nickel mines are Chinese owned. ProfZero and ProfOne are starting to wonder what actually was on the agenda at Davos just 10 days ago...
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Crucial Moment For Oil I never post here but I really wanted to give this notice to as many ppl as possible. Forget the conflict no one knows how that will end. OPEC is still very tight with supply staying on pace with supply increases in the face of $130-$90 barrel oil. We aren't seeing much action in terms of increases in supply in the US either. Iran oil also seems to be off the table. All of this tells me we should hold this trend line and close around $99 today, but the chart is saying otherwise atm. If we close above $99 I believe we see a significant move higher to at least past resistance around $120. If we close below $99 today we could see a drop down to $80. Oil has traded in this channel for almost 2 years before the russian-ukraine war, making a move below or a confirmation of support very significant.
FX:USOILLong
by Value-Invest
1
What will it take for OPEC+ to increase its oil output?The worsening oil supply shortage in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has sent pump prices to record highs in recent weeks, sparking fears of a catastrophic global oil crisis and soaring inflation. Despite these concerns, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other non-OPEC oil-exporting nations, a global oil cartel known as OPEC+, are still holding back on boosting production, downplaying the impact of the conflict on global oil supply and demand and stressing that the current market volatility is triggered only by geopolitical developments. Why are oil prices high? Economic sanctions imposed against Russia have caused oil importers overseas to turn down Russian oil as "no one wants to be seen buying Russian products and funding a war against the Ukrainian people,” a New York Harbor trader was quoted by Reuters as saying earlier this month. Even when not many countries use Russian oil, pump prices have surged in recent weeks as the absence of millions of barrels of Russian oil from the global supply chain prompted importers of Russian crude like Europe to seek the commodity elsewhere such as from OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia. These leaves other traders scrambling to secure supply. How OPEC plays into the issue OPEC members — including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela — account for about 40% of the world’s crude oil production and 60% of petroleum traded globally, according to the US Energy Information Administration. In 2020, as demand for oil plummeted when most countries were under lockdown, OPEC+ agreed to a deal with former US President Donald Trump to slash nearly 10 million barrels of oil per day, or close to 10% of the global oil output. The world’s top exporters eventually started beefing up production by 400,000 barrels a day since August 2021 as economies reopened. Most recently, with the Russia-Ukraine war threatening a global oil supply crunch, the focus has again turned to OPEC+ to ramp up output. However, the group in its recent meeting on March 2 — about a week since Russia started invading Ukraine — reaffirmed its commitment to only increase its crude oil output by 400,000 bpd. “It was noted that current oil market fundamentals and the consensus on its outlook pointed to a well-balanced market, and that current volatility is not caused by changes in market fundamentals but by current geopolitical developments,” OPEC+ said in a statement. UAE pushes for increased output Yousuf Al Otaiba, the UAE's ambassador to Washington, last week said the country “favor production increases and will be encouraging OPEC to consider higher production levels.” The statement caused oil prices to fall at most in two years on Thursday, with Brent crude futures falling 13.2% at $111.14 a barrel, the biggest one-day drop since April 21, 2020. Prices have continued to fall on Monday, with Brent prices falling to $107.59 a barrel for May contracts and WTI crude slipping to $103.42 for April contracts. Oil prices have also retreated on expectations that some producers may accelerate production. Will OPEC+ boost output? In late January, prior to the Ukraine conflict, the EIA had predicted a nearly 2.7 million bpd increase in OPEC’s oil output this year, the largest year-over-year jump in production since 2004. Energy research firm Rystad Energy most recently estimated that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait can bring about 4 million bpd of spare capacity into the market within three to six months, potentially easing the crisis. However, that amount still falls short of Russia’s 7 million bpd in oil exports, according to Reuters. In an interview with Bloomberg News last week, OPEC’s outgoing general secretary Mohammad Barkindo said there is "no physical shortage of oil” amid the Ukraine crisis, adding that the physical market supplies are guaranteed. Barkindo’s statement underscores the OPEC+’s likelihood of only beefing up production once signs of a supply crunch become more imminent. One factor that could prompt the cartel to yield to calls to accelerate output is the potential for a demand destruction. Oil demand may soon peak and decline when retail fuel prices become relatively expensive and as the prices of other consumer goods skyrocket. The transition to renewable energy sources and the shift to new-energy vehicles may also cause oil demand to weaken, especially as Western countries and other economic giants like China accelerate their climate action targets. The potential end to the Russia-Ukraine dispute could likewise stabilize oil prices and encourage OPEC+ to boost output as global supply chains and activities resume, although the likelihood of this happening in the near term is relatively slim as Western countries have refused to directly intervene over fears of wide-ranging “consequences” from Vladimir Putin.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
2
S&P vs OilToday we have a very simple idea. When to invest in S&P 500 vs Oil. The white centerline is the center of the logarithmic price distribution. The red line at the top is +2 standard deviations: unlikely events in favor of Oil will put the price here. The green line is the opposite, -2 standard deviations: unlikely events in favor of the S&P will put the price here. In general, oil has gotten cheaper over the last 125 years compared to the S&P, hence the overall downtrend. I've put some historical events in the chart to portray what might have "caused" the shift, however it's important to note that correlation is not causation, and there are MANY other factors at play here in addition to the events I've listed. There are many events that we must assume we don't know about that have took place. We simply want to observe the results. Besides, the chart doesn't have nearly enough room to post about all events which could have been related :p. Let's look at the percentage increases in the chart that took place when the price breached the green line, in order to set some future expectations: Oil vs S&P price increase based on HLC3 candles (average of high, low, close): 1917 to 1921: 760% 1929 to 1949: 480% 1969 to 1980: 1380% 1999 to 2008: 1070% 2020 to now : 420% If you look at these percentages increases, one might conclude that we might be near the top. However, we breached far below the -2 stdev line, and momentum has reversed sharply. Not only that, upward momentum in this area tends to carry us PAST the centerline (white line) historically speaking. So, expecting this to be the top is quite generous, especially if you consider that the price of oil was below 0 for the first time ever in 2020! In my opinion, it's not crazy to think we could go 3-4x from here, to 0.75 or greater, especially if you consider that OPEC has no plans to increase production, which produces some of the cheapest oil on Earth. This chart only covers events like today, where we are recovering from a -3 stdev event, and does not cover the inverse scenario of where the S&P recovers. I feel like that deserves a whole other chart as I didn't want to make it look too crowded. Thanks for taking a look and don't forget to hedge your bets!
TVC:USOILLong
by fringe_chartist
8
Oil Slides off OPEC Production CooperationOil has retraced sharply off news that OPEC is planning to oblige the demands of the west and increase oil production . We are still holding onto the $100's, but dipped by double digit percentages down to 106, where we found support. Currently we are seeing a nice pivot back through 112, with the price currently in the vacuum zone between 112 and 116. Russia is consistently in the top 4 oil producing nations, so boycotting them will place further constraints on existing supply issues. Therefore, any selloff in oil is likely transitory. It is not likely we will give up the $100's any time soon and $101 is a likely floor for now. If momentum reignites, then $116 and $122 are the next targets before $132.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
USOIL down 17.40%USOIL was down 17.40% yesterday in a sell-off caused by the news that OPEC is considering higher production levels. The United Arab Emirates said it would support boosting oil supply because of the disruptions caused by sanctions imposed on Russia after Ukraine`s invasion. President Biden imposed an immediate ban on Russian energy imports. UK would phase out imports by the end of 2022. Only OPEC Can Help The West Replace Russian Oil but until we see that, i think USDOIL will have another rally to $127 - $130. I think the market overreacted to the news.
TVC:USOILLong
by TopgOptions
2
Brent Crude - $100 in sightBrent crude came within a whisker of $100 today for the first time since September 2014 before profit-taking kicked in. Will it eventually capture this level? There's been a number of times in recent months when $100 oil has been thrown around like it's a case of when rather than if it will hit that massive psychological level. The shortfall of supply from OPEC+ which continues to fail to hit its targets by ever-widening margins, combined with stronger than expected demand has created a very tight market and with no end in sight in the near term, the price has been naturally rising. November offered temporary reprieve, initially from the US-led coordinated SPR release as various countries sought to address the imbalance and lower prices, and then from the emergence of omicron which had a far greater impact. Once the threat of omicron was deemed to not be too great, the price started climbing again and it hasn't really stopped. The crisis now in Ukraine has just added to the rally, with traders now pricing in additional risk premium in the event of Russian supplies being hit. This brings us back to the initial question, will it surpass $100? There doesn't appear to be any lack of momentum, despite the price rallying 50% from the December lows. That was starting to emerge but the escalation at the Ukrainian border has seen that reverse. In terms of how far it can go if it does go above $100, that depends on what happens in Ukraine, not to mention if a new nuclear deal is signed between the US and Iran that could quickly see 1.3 million barrels per day back in the market. The next test could come around $105, where it saw plenty of activity almost a decade ago. The key will be the events on the border but in the meantime, momentum indicators could give us an idea of whether the break of $100 will accelerate the rally or not.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by OANDA
Crude Oil Finds Buyers on Dips | WTIWTI crude oil prices remain on the front foot at around $91.45, up 1.30% intraday while consolidating the first weekly loss in nine during Monday’s Asian session. Although fears among the energy bulls could be spotted as the key catalyst for the black gold’s first weekly loss in multiple weeks, geopolitical noise surrounding Russia and Ukraine joins the OPEC+ supply concerns to keep WTI buyers hopeful. It’s worth noting that the Fed’s rate hike chatters and inflation woes add to the upside filters of the energy prices. That said, Ukraine and the West continue to suggest an imminent Russian military attack on Ukraine. However, Moscow rejects the claims. Recently, a Reuters’ witness said, “Explosion was heard in the center of the rebel-held city of Donetsk in eastern Ukraine.” It’s worth noting that a diplomatic meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov can provide a ray of hope to witness a de-escalation of the geopolitical fears and hence the WTI bulls take a cautious approach ahead of the key meeting outcome. Elsewhere, the OPEC+, a group of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies led by Russia, struggle to match the output hike promises. Recently, OPEC President Bruno Jean-Richard Itoua mentioned that the oil supply is not now enough and blamed oil companies for not investing enough. "OPEC+ should stick to its current agreement to add 400,000 barrels of oil per day each month to output, ministers of Arab oil-producing countries said on Sunday as they gathered in Saudi Arabia, rejecting calls to pump more to ease pressure on prices," said Reuters. Alternatively, fears of the Fed’s faster rate hikes and inflation woes challenge oil traders at multi-month highs. On the same line is the latest risk-off mood, portrayed by downbeat US Treasury yields and stock futures. WTI crude oil traders will keep their eyes on the Russia-Ukraine developments for fresh impulse ahead of the key US-Russia meeting late in the week. Should the tension de-escalate, the odds of witnessing a sharp pullback in the oil prices can’t be ruled out. Technical analysis: The 21-DMA precedes a monthly support line, respectively around $89.10 and $87.95, to limit WTI pullback. However, firmer RSI and ability to stay beyond key supports, not to forget strong fundamentals, keep oil buyers hopeful to renew 2022 high, currently around $94.00. - WTI bulls keep reins despite snapping an eight-week uptrend. - US highlights possibilities of imminent Russian invasion, Moscow rejects claims. - DXY fails to cheer risk-off mood amid downbeat yields. - Fedspeak, PBOC rate decision may offer immediate catalysts, PMIs, US PCE Inflation will be crucial. - It's important to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis, and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long-term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Trading & Investing both are masters of RISK. Please comment, like, and follow if it was helpful for you. Thank you for your time. Have a profitable day. | Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by AliSamadiTR
Boxes and the BeastPOSSIBLE RETRACEMENT IMMINENT - CAN REVERSE ANYTIME The Beast has been adhering to the boxes pretty well and after the literal wrestle with 88.37 (top of last significant box) price has been able to recover yet another of 2014's Red Vector Candles, give a nice drop and a beautiful long from the base of the move. Although this is a 4HR analysis, in the hourly - for those who also use EMA lines - There was Blue candles starting to appear. The fact that there was a Blue Vector Candle recovered by a red one in the 4hr timeframe, we were already long, Then had to endure games to the 50 EMA on the 4HR timeframe. Open to the idea that it could go down to 86.07 where a Green Vector candle from 260122 is in the hourly. Well it didn't and we had to settle for the 50 EMA. (86.85) After enjoying a $2 (200) short it was only right that Oil did a U turn and started to proceed on its journey up. There are more Vector candles are here as labelled in the chart. It is here now, why not just grab them. Well as we saw in the breaking of the last box, oil can drop 5-7% and still go up so longs up here are definitely a dangerous game but if your holding from below then good stuff. The best prices we have are 86.85. Well with the Asian session we have just woken into our 90.7 target we spoke of yesterday in the Oil chat has been hit even before London session. This is insane and the fact that there are more Red vector candles up here make it even crazier. The top of the next 4 hour box is 93.65 and the Red Vector candle from September 2014 is at (93.4.) If all of this happens on a Friday this would be amazing. This is the only reason we hold partials on longs to avoid all the drama in between zones. But equally we short the recovery of the Red Vector candles and scalp at every opportunity. If it gets to 93.4 - 93.6, we will definitely be shorting from there to see what we get out of it. We have closed 50% of the 80% we had left from the position from 86.8. (20% was closed at 88) as we are currently at a top of a box (91) at the point of publishing this idea. 91.82 is the next Bullish target as that is where the next Red Vector from 2014 is but we are more than ready for a retracement if one comes as we have the Green Vectors that were used to get us here as places where liquidity will be grabbed from. If it beats 91.82, 93.4 is quite a distance to travel but I guess we have seen crazier things on Oil. Today will be a very interesting day where we see another new high by the end of it, but one thing we are definitely looking out for is a decent drop after recovering one of these Red Vectors from 2014. Which one it will be, we don't care too much but know that every time one is recovered, we get a good scalp and indeed decent actual shorts, even as it continues to go up. What we need to look out for however is all of the daily signals that were given BEARISH VIEW: There's always room to be Bearish when we take out Key Red Vector candles. But they genuinely do exist in the chart above $100 so is the Big short that we all want waiting above there? Who knows. We are looking for short scalps at key resistances and we have moved sells stops up so much on this journey it's ridiculous. The main thing is when it does go short, for what ever reason Media create, there will be some happy people everywhere As mentioned above, there were a lot of Green Vector candles used to manipulate price up here. Furthermore we are at the top of a box. This means that even if its just dollars or if its $10, there should be a short loading to go and get some Green Below. If we start to see Purple at the top recovering Greens on the way down, we will have some bearish signals. But if we keep seeing Blue recovering Reds, its going in one direction overall. (up) We continue to look for the following to confirm the Total switch of Bias to Short and they are as follows: - We have already seen the Bearish moon in MP indicator (short was less than $3) Bigger and better short could be loading - Losing the embedded on the RSI properly - 4 Hour closes in boxes below - The recovery of Red Vector candles at Super key Resistances When Price recovers a Red Vector candle at the highest point that it will get to today, wherever that is, there will be a very good short that will last the end of Fridays session through Monday. If the Bull run is done, this will be the beginning of the fall. If the Bull run is not done then the sell will last till Monday/Tuesday and they will resume Bullish activity to get more Red Vectors from 2014. It has currently recovered 5 in a week. The last 2 recovered were mentioned on our last idea. 89.4 brought an instant short and it looks like 90.71 will give at least a short scalp. Good luck Guys! This is not financial advice and should be taken with a pinch of salt!
TVC:USOIL
by Squeeezy-Trader
1
(OIL Spot) Bear necessities - 150% Fib expansion not impossibleJust a view on how price has been moved last year. As a Bear you need to know when to be Bearish and when to go with the Bullish flow We have learnt so much more about the Oil market in 2021. Like the difference between USOIL price and USOIL Spot prices change as the week goes on. Some days they are the same or 10-15 pips different. Some days can be as far as 70 pips apart with high volatility. Our very best lesson was on how Vector (manipulation) candles are used to move price but we learnt a lot more than that. One of the most valuable lessons was about when price get's embedded to the up side or downside. In the 4HR and Daily is where we have seen in stay embedded for 3-4 months at a time. When this happens it results in trending moves the whole time while it is embedded. When embedded to the upside, significant shorts are less frequent and when to the downside the opposite is true. With Oil pumping and pumping pretty much all of 2021 with the biggest falls when the embedded was lost, it is only right that we pay attention and be on high alert whenever we see this again. Despite awaiting a plummet (holding partial sells from 80.35 7th Jan), we have noticed the daily become embedded in Dec 2021 and if it does decide to stay this way for 3-4 months then we will have a very high chance of hitting 150% on the fib extension to the upside which is around $97.2 by the end of 1st quarter 2022. (entered buys at 78.5 - USOIL- with Tight SL before close 7th Jan) If it is lost however we can have a great sell to the low 60's again and possibly further down before attempting to go and get the Vector candles beyond $83. If it fails while approaching mid 80's, buckle up for the skydive (This is a bonus idea for those who trade Spot prices)
FX:USOILSPOTLong
by Squeeezy-Trader
Crude Oil Lower Before HigherOPEC+ LEAVES JANUARY OUTPUT PLANS UNCHANGED BUT REMAINS FLEXIBLE TO OMICRON-RELATED SHOCKS Yesterday the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), Russia and its allies, known as ‘OPEC+’, decided to stick to its original plan to increase oil supply by 400,000 barrels per day (bpd) despite the ongoing threat of Omicron on travel restrictions and the coordinated release of special petroleum reserves (SPR) by the US and others. As a result, oil prices dropped sharply as the news filtered through to the markets with oil trading down 4% at one stage and trading well below $66. The sharp drop has appeared to be overdone as crude oil recovered to end the day in the green. OPEC’s decision has been welcomed by the US after countless calls for the group to alleviate rising energy costs in light of rising inflation among developed nations. However, OPEC + remains flexible to the unknown effects of the Omicron variant as far as it relates to travel restrictions and ultimately the demand for oil, by keeping the meeting “in session”, allowing any changes in the lead up to January 2022. At the time of writing, the USOIL price stands at $68.750, Based on our forecasts a long-term price decrease is expected to be around -18.00%. - Our option for #USOIL is TO KEEP WATCHING & WAIT FOR THE SELL-OFF MONTHLY CHART CONFIRMATION. It’s important to keep in mind that cryptocurrency markets are extremely volatile, making it difficult to accurately predict what a coin’s price will be in a few hours or a few days and even harder to give long-term estimates. As such, analysts and online forecasting sites can get their predictions wrong. We recommend that you always do your own research and consider the latest market trends, news, technical and fundamental analysis , and expert opinion before making any investment decisions. Be patient and look long term wisely and never invest more than you can afford to lose. Trading & Investing both are the master of RISK. Please comment, like and follow if it was helpful for you. Thank you for your time. Have a profitable day. | Review and analysis by Samadi.Finance |
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by AliSamadiTR
2
Crude going ballisticThe oil market seems to be shrugging off the omi-cron fear trade. This is for good reason with OPEC+ cartel causing a spike in fear. The possibility of war whether it be Taiwan or Ukraine. The market LOVES the idea of a war. Catalyst #1) Satellite images show Russia still building up forces near Ukraine - Reuters Catalyst #2) US and Japan draw up joint military plan in case of Taiwan emergency – The Guardian Catalyst #3) The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its December oil market report that OPEC+ missed its production targets by 650,000 barrels per day (bpd) last month, compared with 730,000 bpd in October. - Reuters Non-factor: DOE Awards Second Strategic Petroleum Reserve Exchange to Bolster Fuel Supply Chain.
TVC:USOILLong
by TechnicalSniper
Can OPEC Counter Oil's Decline??Oil has edged up as OPEC has pledged to compensate for demand woes. We are seeing resistance from 69.67, a relative high. Several red triangles on the KRI are popping up on the chart, indicating we are running into some resistance. The Kovach OBV is still bearish, to the point we are severely oversold, so a relief rally could easily take us 200 ticks higher, though 72.99, the next relative high, should provide significant resistance. From below, 62.80, the relative low, should be considered a min lower bound for now.
NYMEX:CL1!
by quantguy
1
Brent Crude - Further to Fall?Brent crude has been tumbling in recent weeks, forced lower by slowing growth, a coordinated SPR release and this past week, the new Omicron variant. OPEC+ had an opportunity to arrest the slump today and at first, it appeared they'd passed up the opportunity. But the decision to maintain not change their planned increases each month came with an important caveat, that they would do so at any point if they think it's warranted. In other words, they didn't have enough data to hand today but if that arrives at any point between now and the next meeting and warrants an adjustment, they'll do so immediately. With crude off its lows and higher on the day, has it bottomed out? Possibly. But that will depend on the information that appears over the coming weeks and how bad it is for the global economy. In the meantime, the price had been falling prior to the announcement but as you can see on the 4-hour chart, it was losing momentum all the time. So the caveat provided the excuse the market was already hoping for. If it has bottomed for now, how big a correction can we expect? Or can we expect it to rally from here? While we may see some tests around the 38.2 and 50 fib levels on the way up, the big test above here lies around $76.50 where the 61.8 fib on the 4-hour chart coincides with the bottom of the channel, 55/89-period SMA band and a major prior level of support and resistance. A move above here could put us back into more bullish territory.
OANDA:BCOUSD
by OANDA
OPEC+ would not allow the Crude Market to DisbalanceThe opening trades after Thanksgiving Day brought no optimism for investors as some countries are debating on whether they should release oil from their reserves during a period when the demand is lagging amid new COVID-19 lockdowns in some European countries. Brent crude prices are losing almost 6% and this may not be the final price. Taking the price chart into consideration I believe there must be an ABC correction after a significant upside movement. The current decline from $86.70 per barrel is commencing in a five wave structure, and we are currently in the first wave - A. But I do believe the A wave has not yet reached its targets and may end within the $74.98-75.75 area in order to meet the condition that Waves 3 and 5 should be 150% or 161.8% of the length of the Wave 1. If Brent prices fall to $76.50, the correction structure will be accomplished, as Wave 5 will be equal to Wave 1. Moreover, prices are supported by a long-term upward trend that started in April 2020 and now is crossing the $74.50-74.70 landmark. Specifically, this key landmark may play a decisive role in the current decline cramping selloffs.  Countries within the OPEC cartel and also countries outside OPEC have been divided as some need high crude prices while others are suffering from it. Saudi Arabia and Russia are ready to freeze any further oil production increases to compensate for interventions from the United States and other major crude importers. However, if El Riyadh and Moscow succeed in convincing other OPEC members and its allies to do this, it is really hard to say what will happen. UAE and Kuwait oppose such halts and may lead the others to follow them. I think OPEC+ would not allow for any disbalances in the oil market knowing that the United States may easily pour some 70 million barrels into it and may react swiftly during the next meeting at the beginning of December. Considering the above-mentioned scenario for Brent crude prices, we may expect an upside rebound and for prices to reach designated lows at $74.70-75.70 per barrel. Thus, the new wave B will start to push Brent crude prices towards $81-82 per barrel.
CAPITALCOM:OIL_BRENT
by scavoanastasiia
U.S. May Drop Crude Prices for OPEC+The largest oil cartel in the world, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies known as OPEC+ will hold a meeting on Thursday, November 4, to discuss oil production quotas. Markets expect OPEC+ to stay true to the existing deal to up oil production by another 400,000 barrels per day starting from December 1. On the other hand, some of the largest oil consumers are frowning on high crude prices and are calling on OPEC+ to increase production in order to lower gasoline prices in some regions. China reported in a rare official statement that it had released gasoline and diesel reserves to increase market supply and support price stability in some regions. Now there is a serious threat that an anti-Saudi Arabia and Russia coalition led by the United States could be formed, possibly jointed by the world’s largest oil consumers Japan, India, and China.  U.S. President Joe Biden has already called OPEC+ to increase production beyond the planned 400,000 barrels in order to lower gasoline prices in the United States that have hit $3.7 per gallon, which is a maximum in the last 7 years.  This conflict could be escalated and may lead to new sanctions from the United States, if OPEC+ does not take any additional actions during its meeting on Thursday. Consumers are quite unhappy with current crude prices. The higher crude prices climb, the more hardball rhetoric we may see from the U.S. Administration. Brent crude prices are performing a correction ahead of the OPEC+ meeting and is trading close to $83.50 per barrel. The major resistance is located at $86.74, a maximum reached in January 2018. This is exactly the level where Brent crude prices reversed, showing a peak of $86.70 per barrel on October 25. It is worth noting that Brent crude prices are below the upward trend that started on August 23. We may see an even stronger correction if prices drop below $83 per barrel. If this level is passed, Brent crude prices may drop to $79.80-80 per barrel, the late September and early October levels as well as the EMA 55 level on the daily timeframe chart. So, this time we may face the decline of crude prices after the OPEC+ meeting instead of the rise we saw before the previous OPEC+ meeting.
OShort
by scavoanastasiia
US OIL (WTI/USD) – Week 45 – Bearish momentum to increase.In the coming week, we are expecting the price to reach the confluence between the trendline and the resistance before making another drop and reach the $77 level. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
FX_IDC:USDWTIShort
by financialflagship
12
#OIL: Huge uptrend potential in oil hereI think we are ready for the next big rally in oil, this will cause a dramatic effect on inflation and affect earnings negatively going forward long term. I think it could reach as high as over $100 a barrel by mid August here. If so, the impact on the economy would be very large, with a delay of 6 months according to research by my mentor, @timwest With the Iran deal on the horizon, and the recent turn of events in the OPEC meeting, supply is going to be lower than demand and the US might be at risk of losing their energy independence that Trump had achieved during his tenure (also of note is the recent ESG activist shareholder movement, really concerning for the future of investment in increasing supply to meet demand from shale companies in the US). Consider the return to normal in air travel as a factor here as well, no one is really prepared for a move like this, and most media talking heads are repeating like parrots that inflation will be transitory, as if they were under the govt's payroll. Nasty turn of events indeed, but a good opportunity for those long value and commodities. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
OANDA:WTICOUSDLong
by IvanLabrie
8
Brent: countertrend dealThe decision by OPEC and OPEC + on Monday to keep the plan for a gradual increase in oil production was prompted by fears that demand and prices could weaken. The group also considered the possibility of increasing production by 800,000 barrels per day, which is almost 1% of global production, ahead of Monday's meeting. Now the OPEC countries are more cautious, because any hasty decision could lead to a sharp drop in oil prices. In the medium term, the instrument will be on the rise. Today is rich in news. Taking into account this fact, as well as the strong upward movement in oil, no one canceled short-term sales for the instrument. Proposed deal for this tool: Entry Point - 82.85 Stop Loss - 83.80 Take Profit - 82.08
SKILLING:XBRUSDShort
by TradePlus-Fx