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Opec

Another leg up for crude oil? To answer this question, we need to look at the following: 1) US Strategic Petroleum Reserve The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is currently at its lowest level since 1984, while the absolute level is worrisome, the speed of the drawdown on the reserve over the past year is more concerning. In an effort to combat rising prices and possibly secure the midterm elections, President Biden has continually announced release from the reserve, depleting close to a third of the reserve since the start of 2022. If and when this extra supply is cut off, oil prices will likely head higher. 2) OPEC Production Cuts With the OPEC announcement to cut production by 2 million barrels per day, the world is yet under more energy supply stress. While the cut is only about 2% of global supply, it does signify a shift in stance from OPEC, clashing with the West as the US condemns OPEC’s actions. With the next OPEC+ meeting taking place in December, we will closely monitor if further production tightening continues. 3) Crude Oil and DXY As Crude Oil is quoted in USD, the dollar’s performance has a great impact on oil prices. The chart above shows the dollar (inverted) against Crude Oil. The 2 generally move together, up until the start of 2022, when dollar strengthened significantly alongside oil. As this relationship stretches further away from the normal, we fear a ‘snap’ may occur should a pivot in the Fed’s policies occur. That would greatly weaken the USD, and push oil prices significantly higher. 4) China’s turn With China still essentially closed from the rest of the world, any shift towards opening the Chinese economy could awaken the world’s 2nd largest consumer of oil. Looking at the Crude Oil Chart, we see a continued uptrend since the negative oil prices fiasco in May 2022. With a stalled attempt to break lower in September, and prices now back in line with the uptrend, we could potentially see higher oil prices from here. We also note the 90$ handle as a significant level, where 2 previous attempts to break past were rejected. But with a clear and decisive break past the 90$ mark, are the bulls in control now? In our opinion, crude oil is like the stone on a slingshot, stretched further and further back by multiple macro factors. If any were to snap, oil could be slingshot higher… Entry at 92.25, stops at 85. Target at 100. The charts above were generated using CME’s Real-Time data available on TradingView. Inspirante Trading Solutions is subscribed to both TradingView Premium and CME Real-time Market Data which allows us to identify any trading set-ups in real-time and react accordingly. To find out more, visit www.tradingview.com under the CME Group exchange to view the real-time data plans available. Disclaimer: The contents in this Idea are intended for information purpose only and do not constitute investment recommendation or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products or services. They serve as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate fundamental concepts in risk management under given market scenarios.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by inspirante
11
#BRENT update - Breakout confirmed, goes to $101Hi guys! 👋🏻 🔔 Brent crude price was squeezed in a descending triangle, and a breakout from the triangle was expected, so it happened as seen on the chart 🔔 Brent crude price is traded at $91 trying to hit the key resistance of $91.60 up ahead. 🔔 I do anticipate the price to slow down a bit when reaching the aforementioned resistance, however the path to $101 stays clear. 🔔 Opec+ will cut production by 1M, which is 3.4% of the current daily production volume. ✊🏻 Good luck with your trades! ✊🏻 If you like the idea hit the 👍🏻 button, follow me for more ideas.
TVC:UKOILLong
by azizelliott
1
OPEC Lifts OilOil has dipped into the $70's again, but has regained the $80's following reports that OPEC will cut production . We blasted through lower levels in the $80's, and are currently retesting $83.21, with a red triangle on the KRI confirming resistance. If momentum continues, we have several more levels to cross before our target of $85.55. Depending on how much OPEC cuts, this could drive prices back to the $100's again in the longer term. Expect support at the base of the $80 handle if we reject current levels.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by quantguy
Oil Presses LowerOil has fallen deeper into the high $80's following a selloff that broke monthly lows. We had very strong support at $92.03, and appeared to be seeing a double bottom forming, but the selloff knocked oil back a peg, smashing through multiple technical levels below in a persistence selloff that has taken us back to support at $87.21. We are seeing a green triangle forming on the KRI, but the selloff does seem persistent. We should have further support from $85.55 and $84.75. If we see a relief rally, the $90's should provide resistance.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by quantguy
Is #USO Breaking Out?Is #USO Breaking Out? # Crude #oil extended last weeks Friday’s positive close in trading on Monday as U.S. President Joe Biden’s visit to Saudi Arabia failed to deliver anything concrete. The trip was aimed at coaxing the Saudi’s to increase oil production thus easing inflation pressures. The response from the Saudi’s and other key officials reiterated the fact that production scheduling and/or increases remain with the OPEC+ consortium leaving President Biden without a deal. Sorry #JoeBiden
AMEX:USOLong
by fintechwire
OIL - Clear SHORT Targets!Oil has shown us clear price action where we can see an impulse, ABC correction and now we're in the next impulse phase. The weekly timeframe indicates that the bullish wave is over and we may see a deeper correction now. A simple way to enter Oil SHORTS is by waiting for a correction on lower timeframe. Trade Idea: - Watch for any sort of corrections on lower timeframe - Enter with stops above that correction - Targets: 94, 85 What do you guys think?
TVC:USOIL
by WicktatorFX
14
#OP/USDT 15M CHART UPDATE !!Welcome to this quick OP/USDT analysis. I have tried my best to bring the best possible outcome in this chart. Reason for trade:- OP is trading in an uptrend channel and respecting the support and resistance level. The support is $1.27 area and the major resistance is $1.59-$1.66 area. Try to grab some OP near support level with tight stop loss.$1.24 Remember:-This is not a piece of financial advice. All investment made by me is at my own risk and I am held responsible for my own profit and losses. So, do your own research before investing in this trade. Sorry for my English it is not my native language. Do hit the like button if you like it and share your charts in the comments section. Thank you...
Long
by CryptoSanders9563
BTC trying to bounce back but a hurricane set to cool optimismINVESTMENT CONTEXT While OPEC+ agreed to boost crude oil production in the coming months, in a gesture of reconciliation to the U.S., it still remains unclear whether Saudi Arabia, the cartel's largest producer, will agree to further isolate economically Russia BlackRock's CEO, Larry Fink, sees inflation to remain high for "years" due to the persisting effects of supply shocks After raising interest rates on April 29, the Fed is now about to kick-off the plan to shrink its USD 8.9tn balance sheet U.S. corporate profits fell the most in two years in Q1 2022; in the past year, earnings at 620 companies (of the 3,000 listed entities) fell short of interest payments — well above pre-pandemic 2019 levels President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian forces have seized a fifth of Ukraine, as the war passed the 100-day milestone Russia missed a USD 1.9mln payment, inching closer to a default that would trigger billions of CDS insurance contracts PROFZERO'S TAKE In a rollercoaster trading day, equities shook off pre-market losses to close deep into green territory. Traders are mildly attempting to restore risk-on attitude, even in the wake of Microsoft (MSFT) lowering fourth-quarter guidance for both revenue and earnings, citing unfavorable foreign exchange rates. ProfZero maintains its cool aplomb: while welcoming the prospective second straight green weekly candle, the overarching narrative still hasn't found sufficient grounding for a rebound to be called - war in Ukraine still has no clearly defined endgame, China has but started softly lifting COVID restrictions and this week showed inflation in Europe has not peaked yet. Hot summer ahead? Cruel summer, rather ProfZero is awaiting today's nonfarm payrolls and unemployment rate data to see whether the real economy is keeping the upbeat tone much needed to absorb inflation; earlier indications point to slowing hiring activity coupled with companies vying for talent, even at considerably heftier wages. As shared on Step99 podcast on June 2, ProfZero reminds that the inflation equation simply can't be escaped: it's going to be paid either by companies in case they'll opt to internalize higher costs (including salaries), or by households through higher retail prices (United Nations, U.N., food price index surged 73.9% in May 2022 as compared to 2020) On June 2 Italy's natural gas distributor Snam announced it took over a 5-bcm strong regasification vessel from Golar LNG, as attempts to diversify energy supply in Europe gather pace. Other than the cost of energy itself, ProfZero is attentively looking at the freight market as a new source of possible bottlenecks: while pipelines from Russia allowed for seamless, low-cost primary transportation, the construction of brand-new seaborne supply chains will shift much market power into the hands of traders (Trafigura, Gunvor) and logistics middlemen. Speak of inflation - think of trading routes and supply-chain nodes, and you'll see who's behind it BTC testing again the high USD 30k bracket - or simply draining liquidity from altcoins? PROFONE's TAKE Following yesterday’s thoughts on lithium, ProfOne’s sees the very same pressures on nickel. The price of the metal used in stainless steel and electric-vehicle batteries gained more than 50% since the beginning of 2022, including a one-day market rout on March 8 that sent prices up 250% intraday, and had the London Metals Exchange shut trading to contain credit risk . Some stainless steel factories in Europe already had to cut production (Acerinox) on stable supply concerns. Countries are looking for ways to substitute supplies from Russia, which produces a fifth of the world’s purest-grade nickel. Thus again on de-globalization talks: around 80% of the world’s nickel processing is based in China and 60% of the world’s nickel mines are Chinese owned. ProfZero and ProfOne are starting to wonder what actually was on the agenda at Davos just 10 days ago...
CME:BTC1!
by ProfZero
Crucial Moment For Oil I never post here but I really wanted to give this notice to as many ppl as possible. Forget the conflict no one knows how that will end. OPEC is still very tight with supply staying on pace with supply increases in the face of $130-$90 barrel oil. We aren't seeing much action in terms of increases in supply in the US either. Iran oil also seems to be off the table. All of this tells me we should hold this trend line and close around $99 today, but the chart is saying otherwise atm. If we close above $99 I believe we see a significant move higher to at least past resistance around $120. If we close below $99 today we could see a drop down to $80. Oil has traded in this channel for almost 2 years before the russian-ukraine war, making a move below or a confirmation of support very significant.
FX:USOILLong
by Value-Invest
1
What will it take for OPEC+ to increase its oil output?The worsening oil supply shortage in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has sent pump prices to record highs in recent weeks, sparking fears of a catastrophic global oil crisis and soaring inflation. Despite these concerns, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and other non-OPEC oil-exporting nations, a global oil cartel known as OPEC+, are still holding back on boosting production, downplaying the impact of the conflict on global oil supply and demand and stressing that the current market volatility is triggered only by geopolitical developments. Why are oil prices high? Economic sanctions imposed against Russia have caused oil importers overseas to turn down Russian oil as "no one wants to be seen buying Russian products and funding a war against the Ukrainian people,” a New York Harbor trader was quoted by Reuters as saying earlier this month. Even when not many countries use Russian oil, pump prices have surged in recent weeks as the absence of millions of barrels of Russian oil from the global supply chain prompted importers of Russian crude like Europe to seek the commodity elsewhere such as from OPEC countries like Saudi Arabia. These leaves other traders scrambling to secure supply. How OPEC plays into the issue OPEC members — including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Venezuela — account for about 40% of the world’s crude oil production and 60% of petroleum traded globally, according to the US Energy Information Administration. In 2020, as demand for oil plummeted when most countries were under lockdown, OPEC+ agreed to a deal with former US President Donald Trump to slash nearly 10 million barrels of oil per day, or close to 10% of the global oil output. The world’s top exporters eventually started beefing up production by 400,000 barrels a day since August 2021 as economies reopened. Most recently, with the Russia-Ukraine war threatening a global oil supply crunch, the focus has again turned to OPEC+ to ramp up output. However, the group in its recent meeting on March 2 — about a week since Russia started invading Ukraine — reaffirmed its commitment to only increase its crude oil output by 400,000 bpd. “It was noted that current oil market fundamentals and the consensus on its outlook pointed to a well-balanced market, and that current volatility is not caused by changes in market fundamentals but by current geopolitical developments,” OPEC+ said in a statement. UAE pushes for increased output Yousuf Al Otaiba, the UAE's ambassador to Washington, last week said the country “favor production increases and will be encouraging OPEC to consider higher production levels.” The statement caused oil prices to fall at most in two years on Thursday, with Brent crude futures falling 13.2% at $111.14 a barrel, the biggest one-day drop since April 21, 2020. Prices have continued to fall on Monday, with Brent prices falling to $107.59 a barrel for May contracts and WTI crude slipping to $103.42 for April contracts. Oil prices have also retreated on expectations that some producers may accelerate production. Will OPEC+ boost output? In late January, prior to the Ukraine conflict, the EIA had predicted a nearly 2.7 million bpd increase in OPEC’s oil output this year, the largest year-over-year jump in production since 2004. Energy research firm Rystad Energy most recently estimated that Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Iraq and Kuwait can bring about 4 million bpd of spare capacity into the market within three to six months, potentially easing the crisis. However, that amount still falls short of Russia’s 7 million bpd in oil exports, according to Reuters. In an interview with Bloomberg News last week, OPEC’s outgoing general secretary Mohammad Barkindo said there is "no physical shortage of oil” amid the Ukraine crisis, adding that the physical market supplies are guaranteed. Barkindo’s statement underscores the OPEC+’s likelihood of only beefing up production once signs of a supply crunch become more imminent. One factor that could prompt the cartel to yield to calls to accelerate output is the potential for a demand destruction. Oil demand may soon peak and decline when retail fuel prices become relatively expensive and as the prices of other consumer goods skyrocket. The transition to renewable energy sources and the shift to new-energy vehicles may also cause oil demand to weaken, especially as Western countries and other economic giants like China accelerate their climate action targets. The potential end to the Russia-Ukraine dispute could likewise stabilize oil prices and encourage OPEC+ to boost output as global supply chains and activities resume, although the likelihood of this happening in the near term is relatively slim as Western countries have refused to directly intervene over fears of wide-ranging “consequences” from Vladimir Putin.
BLACKBULL:WTI
by BlackBull_Markets
2
S&P vs OilToday we have a very simple idea. When to invest in S&P 500 vs Oil. The white centerline is the center of the logarithmic price distribution. The red line at the top is +2 standard deviations: unlikely events in favor of Oil will put the price here. The green line is the opposite, -2 standard deviations: unlikely events in favor of the S&P will put the price here. In general, oil has gotten cheaper over the last 125 years compared to the S&P, hence the overall downtrend. I've put some historical events in the chart to portray what might have "caused" the shift, however it's important to note that correlation is not causation, and there are MANY other factors at play here in addition to the events I've listed. There are many events that we must assume we don't know about that have took place. We simply want to observe the results. Besides, the chart doesn't have nearly enough room to post about all events which could have been related :p. Let's look at the percentage increases in the chart that took place when the price breached the green line, in order to set some future expectations: Oil vs S&P price increase based on HLC3 candles (average of high, low, close): 1917 to 1921: 760% 1929 to 1949: 480% 1969 to 1980: 1380% 1999 to 2008: 1070% 2020 to now : 420% If you look at these percentages increases, one might conclude that we might be near the top. However, we breached far below the -2 stdev line, and momentum has reversed sharply. Not only that, upward momentum in this area tends to carry us PAST the centerline (white line) historically speaking. So, expecting this to be the top is quite generous, especially if you consider that the price of oil was below 0 for the first time ever in 2020! In my opinion, it's not crazy to think we could go 3-4x from here, to 0.75 or greater, especially if you consider that OPEC has no plans to increase production, which produces some of the cheapest oil on Earth. This chart only covers events like today, where we are recovering from a -3 stdev event, and does not cover the inverse scenario of where the S&P recovers. I feel like that deserves a whole other chart as I didn't want to make it look too crowded. Thanks for taking a look and don't forget to hedge your bets!
TVC:USOILLong
by fringe_chartist
8