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Opec

WTI: November 2020Hi Guys, November is ending today and it has been a positive month for WTI unless today's meeting by OPEC+ ruins the party. Since OPEC+ mended their differencies back in April and started implementing drastic production cuts, WTI climbed back above the blue horizontal line and was supported above it before running again this month. SMA points down but still well above latest candlestick. Sentiment testing its medium point of equilibrium in conjunction with price testing violet horizontal line which represents previous level of support now became resistence. I'd look for a contact with descending bearish pressure represented by SMA and red trendlines. However NOT now. Maybe in January or February next year. It also depends on how it unfolds the pattern in the circle which will mainly depend on OPEC+ decisions. Let's wait for the outcome of OPEC+ meeting. Please share your views and comments below. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Cozzamara Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumstances.
FX:USOIL
by cozzamara
1
WTI: what's happening in the circle?Hi Guys, watch out for news from OPEC+ The pattern in the circle may be the beginning of a flag or a pennant. Following the divergence with sentiment (RSI) between S2, S3 and S4, price started a pullback above Saudi-Russia Oil Price War levels of 43.830 where it formed the pattern inside the circle. So far the pullback is made of an impulse(1), a correction(2), an impulse(3), a correction(4) and another impulse that took it above 43.830. What is going to be its next move? Please share your views and comments below. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Cozzamara Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumstances.
FX:USOIL
by cozzamara
1
Oil at fresh highs as demand-side brightensThe oil markets have been seeing the light as of late. Oil prices have reached an eight-month high, with WTI and Brent Crude trading around $45 and $48. This is from the recent positive vaccine news, alongside better than expected EIA data and geopolitical supply-side tensions. Oil supply and demand fundamentals are getting brighter Peter McNally, global head of industrials, materials, and energy at Third Bridge, stated that “it has been a really good run. We haven’t seen a run like this since the spring after we went to negative prices.” He also stated that “Sentiment has changed pretty quickly… lately it feels like supply and demand fundamentals are heading in the right direction.” Many markets have been revolving around optimism on a vaccine, and Oil is no exception. The Price of Oil has come a long way, from the price war between Saudi and Russia earlier this year, alongside Oil going negative in late April. With the vaccine in sight, the Oil markets are banking on increasing demand in the following months. Bloomberg also reported that Chinese and Indian refiners had issued a large number of tenders seeking crude Oil for loading in Jan, highlighting the strong demand from parts in Asia. The supply side is also providing pressure for Oil upwards, with the geopolitical tensions rising with recent attacks on a fuel depot in Saudi and an oil tanker in the Red Sea. Oil rally also causing problems for OPEC However, the main governing body for the oil markets, OPEC, is having some troubles with their members. Iraq, which requires an oil fiscal break-even price of $64, is voicing their frustrations at OPEC’s “one size fits all” policy. Iraq’s Finance and Deputy Prime Minister, Ali Alawi, stated that “We have reached the limit of our ability and willingness to accept a policy of one size fits all.” Although they have breached OPEC’s quotas many times this year, Iraq is quite influential within OPEC, as they are the largest producer after Saudi Arabia. OPEC is set to renew its policies regarding supply cuts on December 1st. OPEC is placed in an awkward position, as rising oil prices means it’s harder to come to a consensus for the 13 countries on whether they should continue to cut supply to the market, in turn, giving up the opportunity to lock in revenue for years to come.
TVC:UKOIL
by BlackBull_Markets
ridethepig | USDCAD Market Commentary 2020.11.25This linkage with Oil is a well known school, which believed only in absolute freeing moves can be a forced to be reckoned with. In 90 cases out of 100 I consider it worth recommending. Even after the defensive breakdown in Oil with Covid chapter I, it should in no way b overestimated that we are suddenly reaching the previous breakdown manoeuvre. Thus in this position, what is in play is a cleansing of USD shorts as the move got out of hand. Some large macro players were caught on the CAD bid yesterday, out of position if you ask me and well into the middle of the range. Asking for a squeeze up towards 1.306x and 1.314x. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Long
by ridethepig
ridethepig | Oil Entering into Resistance📌 Oil - Election Positioning Map @ridethepig Here we are approaching the strong 41.5x resistance, the same levels we have been tracking since calling an end to the v shapers rebound. OPEC now has the difficult task of provoking price into action, any manoeuvres on the supply side will not be able to offset the demand shock from further restrictions and lockdowns entering back into play. For those who remember the pre-covid chart, we are in a very similar environment: For sellers here and now, the 41.5x represents a certain chance of setting up fresh shorts and attacking both the centre and the low in our map. It should be clear that we are in a dead cat bounce still from the initial knee jerk reaction flow. Expecting a test of the lows and $30 extensions before building a more solid basing formation. An extremely instructive example of how we can find openings in the chaos.
TVC:USOILShort
by ridethepig
5
WTI: just some considerations (4H)Hi Guys, XABC are the moves unfolded since 2 Sept. inside the violet circle in the daily snapshot below: It looks like an Harmonic Pattern/W-Formation supported at 36.(280), the same level it was when WHO declared pandemic emergency status on 11 March. The divergence in RSI between S2 and S3 is not as evident as it is in the daily chart but was enough to boost the pullback from 36.(280)(C). Is the pullback from C exausted itself already? The move from C was stopped at B (previous high made on 18 Sept.) but never reached bullish momentum (not overbought) as it did the move from A (overbought). After C price was pushed down at B right after OPEC published World Oil Outlook 2045 and said "The Worst Is Over" for the Oil Market. Why? Here the monthly view which I hope may help to improve the perspective. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Cozzamara Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities. IMHO: The point of trading is to make money. To make money you must have money. Depending on the money at your disposal, you can decide what to do and how to do it. By having stops you decide how much you are willing to lose. By having targets you decide how much you want to earn. Be disciplined with your protocol and with your strategies for trading. Sometime you win, sometime you lose. Don't be greedy. Be realistic. Be wary but not afraid. Be curious. Use your brain. As long as your working process make sense and your spirit is calm, everything will be fine. Be patient and be prepared for any circumstances.
FX:USOIL
by cozzamara
final time oil i think my first two ideas were not upto scratch. i think looking back on 4h chart we can inverted head and shoulders with a pullback to the neckline, what is confusing right now though is the 4h pinbar and overbought accumulation on that particular timeframe. I personally believe the daily chart is still pretty bullish after making higher highs. so i love price action trading this would be a really nice set up. the short on the pinbar could also work so im taking a smaller risk position.
TVC:USOILLong
by UnknownUnicorn6102956
OPEC+ Boosts output put Oil prices downCrude oil plunged below 40$ on opec output news, Daily chart suggesting more weakness ahead till 35.50 levels with a mild support at 36.55 (sept 8th low) Upside resistance lies at 38.80 or 136ma. Almost all timeframes RSI trading at over sold regions giving some caution for fresh sells. Who ever sold at highs can take profit here and wait for the slight rebound till 38 level and take fresh sell for downside said level. Overall sell on rise is advised.
TVC:USOILShort
by OfficialYaMarkets
USOIL FUTURES TANK BELOW $20 \ SLIPPERY WHEN WETSeemingly in the middle of a tug-o-war exhibition, both bears and bulls are jocking hard for position on USOIL. I always say that this particular instrument is the bloodline of America. Considering the political and socioeconomic status at this time, its only right that the price of USOIl metaphorically also becomes unstable. With COVID-19 continuing to be the elephant in every room, there's plenty of reason to be bearish on not just USOIL but DXY as well. I have no EMA numbers for you, no historical price points either. Just a nice, simple mark-up that points way, way south.Whenever price seems as if it's going sideways, it really wants to go down from my experience. Minus a few dead cat bounces here and there, without momentum no meaningful moves can be executed. Barring an increase and hold in price above, $41.39 - this looks to be slow traveling train in one steady direction.
TVC:USOILShort
by UnknownUnicorn5320750
2
Could we see a full oil recovery this year?Some quick numbers – Globally, there are over 15 Million Coronavirus cases and 618,000 deaths due to the pandemic. An estimated 47 million people may lose their jobs in the United States alone. Oil dived into negative, an unprecedented move. However, the NASDAQ is having its best year having made a V shape recovery, Elon Musk is the 13th Richest person in the world surpassing Warren Buffet, and masks are all the rage. However, this optimism hasn’t translated into the oil markets. Although we’ve seen a double in price from its March lows, March lows were around $16-$20 a barrel, which is fiscally and financially unsustainable for all oil-producing companies. This V-shape recovery in equities was caused by investors and traders baking in potential future earnings and using it to value the stock price now. The main problem is that there is no set rule as to how far ahead in the future investors and traders should look forward – enabling essentially an “oh, they’ll be fine after the Coronavirus” mentality. Oil does not have this luxury. Oil needs to be delivered every month. This means speculators and traders (in the physical market) can’t wait for future results. If the equity markets look into the future, the spot market looks at the now. With Gold, a safe haven asset reaching all-time highs and Oil struggling to get back past its boom days, both commodities recognize the current risks the world faces due to the Coronavirus. We can see that in the United States, the recovery in oil is stalling due to a second wave of the Coronavirus, forcing people to travel less and stay at home more. Cushing Crude oil stocks are not coming down from their all-time highs, and Petrol demand is down 100,000 barrels per day (b/d). We may see a spread between the US benchmark WTI and Brent Crude, the global benchmark as travel around the world picks up relative to the United States. However, long term trends with government stimulus for greener alternatives to fossil fuels may prevent oil from ever getting back to its hay days. With Joe Biden putting clean energy at the forefront of his $2 Trillion campaign and the EU 750 Billion Euro recovery fund pledging 1/3 of the fund to fight climate change, oil sees pressure downwards both from the demand and supply side. The fundamental issue with oil is the opportunity cost dynamic relative to other energy sources. With oil prices quite low, renewable resources are expensive in comparison to oil. However, with billions of government stimulus, alongside the supply of oil slowly drying up, exploration for new oil reserves would yield a lower return, increasing the opportunity cost and oil price. While a restriction in supply and an increase in price would be good for oil producers in the short term, with everything else equal, a shift to renewable energy will ensue. Energy Strategist at think-tank Carbon Tracker, Kingsmill Bond, stated that “the world has 50 years of proven oil reserves.” Furthermore, he stated, "the prospect of declining demand as a result of electric vehicle adoption and policy changes means we no longer need a huge oil exploration industry tooled up forever-rising consumption – the talent and resources of the industry can be deployed elsewhere.” However, this has not stopped some producers from making big bets. Chevron acquired Noble energy in an all-stock deal for $13 Billion in amidst of bankruptcies in the oil industry due to the Coronavirus. For now, the Coronavirus is controlling the oil markets. However, we may see a slow shift out of fossil fuels as time goes along.
TVC:UKOIL
by BlackBull_Markets