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Opec

The next 3 weeks should be fun.We plowed through new highs last week as I anticipated in a bull case last week. The green levels in this weeks chart are last weeks major daily support / resistance levels from a couple order flow experts on fintwit. First thing I learned in stocks was that when the Normies (normal people) know, it's time to go. The 19th* dip trend I've been following since last week has started hitting MSM. With that in mind, I find myself second guessing the 19th dip prediction this coming September and instead planning the extremes that could occur instead. 1. We could start unwinding OPEX/VIX early as big money tries to get ahead of the normies buying the 19th dip. 2. More explosive events and FUD fill the market and we actually run above the 1.5Y median like we did last end of September. 3. We stay in tight, low volume trading ranges, accumulate at the 1.5y median followed by a spring event, distribution/bull trap and a sell off into VIX / OPEX and Buy the Dip 19th*. I love this game.
AMEX:SPY
by SPYvsGME
2
On OPEC & OILSince May 2021, S&P 500 has gained almost 10%, while Copper/Oil ratio has lost 52%; which means oil prices are relatively higher than the Global economic growth capacities. IEA reported the same idea on Global OIL demand this week, which is totally in contrast with OPEC's demand assessments noted in it's August report. Since these high prices are weighing on U.S. Trade Balance & causing inflationary pressures, White House has already reached OPEC for lower prices. While OPEC is counting on strong Global growth to reach it's basket pricing, a failure on that could force the Cartel to cut it's prices; The bad scenario is a continued divergence between OPEC basket pricing & the global growth capacities, which could at last end in a pressure on World Economies which are already in ultra low Interest Rates & looming Tapering stages. I believe the above divergence scenario has a little chance to happen, But still a possibility since OPEC miscalculation isn't new. Whether OIL prices lower to match the world growth capacity or world recovery reach the high energy prices according to OPEC's anticipation, is to be judged by the unveiling Fundamental Factors including Delta variant outbreak & vaccines effectiveness. However any prolonged divergent policy, despite being unlikely, could cause recessionary pressures.
TVC:UKOIL
by Alireza_Bahmani
2
Breaking: The OPEC report is issuedOPEC monthly report was issued a few minutes ago, and the report was not positive for OPEC+ and the oil-producing countries within the group, led by Saudi Arabia. OPEC kept its forecast for oil demand in 2021 unchanged at an increase of 6 million barrels per day, bringing the average to 96.6 million barrels per day, and also kept its forecast for the growth of oil demands in 2022 by 3.3 million barrels per day, bringing the average production to 99.86 million barrels per day. While OPEC+ raised its expectations for an increase in the production of oil-producing countries outside the group by 840 thousand barrels per day, to reach an increase of 2.9 million barrels per day, with a total average of 66.9 million barrels per day in 2022. It also raised its forecast for the production growth of oil-producing countries outside the group in 2021 by 270,000 barrels per day to reach 1.1 million barrels per day, with a total average of 64 million barrels per day.
TVC:UKOIL
by basembitar
USDWTI H4 - Long SetupUSDWTI H4 A break short of $70/barrel would be quite significant in my eyes, threatening the break as we speak, but need to ideally see a solid H4 close below. Our H4 support region is trading marginally below that $70 whole number, but the 'zone' is still a decent support region. Just need to wait for price exhaustion, especially with a volatile pair like WTI. Not personally something I'm looking to trade this early on in the week, but worth updating the watchlist from yesterdays webinar.
FX_IDC:USDWTILong
by Trade_Simple_FX
Fundamental Updates – OPEC+ United Once Again (19 July 2021)A compromised deal. After a two-week stalemate in the discussion, the OPEC+ reconvened its meeting over the weekend. As part of a compromise, the oil-producing group has agreed for a raise in the production baseline for five members. Oil production baseline increment in barrels-per-day (bpd) Saudi Arabia: 500,000 bpd Russia: 500,000 bpd UAE: 332,000 bpd Iraq: 150,000 bpd Kuwait: 150,000 bpd Although the baseline for the UAE has been raised, it falls short from the UAE’s initial request by 300,000 bpd. It was also revealed that Algeria and Nigeria have requested for an increase in their individual baselines. With the issue of production baseline resolved, the OPEC+ had finalized a deal. Starting from August, there will be a hike in oil production by 400,000 bpd. Furthermore, the group has agreed to phase out the current 5.8 million bpd of oil production cut by September 2022. Impact on oil prices. Prior to this deal, the market believed that without a unanimous agreement, the OPEC+ will retain their current oil production quota. And since the OPEC+ is currently running on a supply deficit, the possibility of maintaining the current production quota led to the strengthening of oil prices. Now that the storm is over, a downward pressure has been placed on oil prices due to the increase in supply. This explains why oil prices started declining when the market kickstarted a new week earlier today. Impact on the Canadian dollar. As we know, there is a positive correlation between oil prices and the Canadian dollar (as oil prices rise, Canadian dollar tends to rise, vice-versa). In that sense, the Canadian dollar weakened as a result of the increase in oil supply by the OPEC+. This can be seen from the strengthening of USD/CAD and the weakening of CAD/JPY when the market opened earlier today.
FX:USOILSPOT
by GH_Lee
Brent oil buyers remain hopeful inside five-week-old channelAlthough the weekly falling trend line probes Brent oil buyers of late, the commodity prices remain inside an ascending trend channel from May 27, not to forget staying beyond 100-SMA. The same joins an upbeat RSI line to keep buyers directed towards an immediate resistance line of $76.00. However, any further upside will be questioned by the stated channel’s upper line, close to $77.50. In a case where the oil bulls remain dominant past $77.50, the late October peak surrounding $78.00 may test the rally targeting the $80.00 psychological magnet. Meanwhile, pullback moves become less concerned until staying beyond the 100-SMA level of $74.10, needless to mention the channel support of $74.50. Also acting as a downside filter is the $74.00 mark, a break of which will make the quote vulnerable to decline towards the mid-June lows near $72.00. It’s worth noting that Thursday’s US ISM Manufacturing PMI and Friday’s US NFP, not to forget Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting, become the key events for energy traders.
TVC:UKOILLong
by MTradingGlobal
wti shortHey guys! Trading should be simple, when you over complicate things you are usually way to attached mentally/emotionally to a setup/trade. Here's WTI.... OPEC coming up again tomorrow with the first meeting being a solid "nothing", and that "nothing" helped us form a pullback, but that pullback resulted into a lower high... meaning this is now a solid bearish setup. We are short on WTI and you can see why, - bearish wedge - Lower high on RSI - Lower price action high - Double top rejection Good luck trading!
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by PrimedGroup
15% Move for Brent Oil Brent Oil trading within the Apex we are soon to get a breakout or breakdown . As detailed on the chart we can see that the .75 Fib has been a Strong support for Brent since December 2020 and is still respected . With that said we have a measured move of around 15 percent for this to extend its uptrend into the 80 dollar zone or retreat back to the 56 Dollar level where we can expect support to hold . Like and Follow for Daily Analysis , signals and to see or hear my perspective . Know your Invalidation and Trade With a Plan . PLEASE NOTE THIS PERSPECTICE IS BASED UPON TECHNICAL ANALYSIS ONLY I DO NOT FOLLOW ANY GEO POLITICS THAT OF COURSE CAN EFFECT THE OUTCOME SHOW ME THE CHART AND I WILL TELL YOU THE NEWS IS HOW I WORK
CAPITALCOM:OIL_BRENT
by SJTRADESFUTURES
US OIL (WTI/USD) – Week 18 – Expecting a drop.In our previous forecast, we were expecting WTI to fall and reach the liquidity pool. Instead, the price increased, but our bias hasn’t changed. For next week, we expect the price to lose some steam and drop towards the support area that we highlighted. Keep an eye on Wednesday’s weekly EIA stocks report as it may have an impact on this asset. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
FX_IDC:USDWTIShort
by financialflagship
18
SCARY DAY ! IF IT'S WEDNESDAY IT'S MAD! Or THE BRIDGE OF SighS !!! The Fed, OPEC, BIDEN, COVID and the outside rain hit the same day. With the slogan roast the pastures, poison the fountains, scare the investors, the Bau Bau group above seems to have brought a total eclipse of daily optimism on the financial markets. From Crypto to metals, they all seem set for declines at today's opening, on the principle "head in the ground, the sword does not cut it", learned from the Service Ostrich. Google alone, the new owner of dream reports, seems to be successfully withstanding this fiery day. Of course, a lot can change during the day, and especially after each event. But it is important to decrypt Powell and Biden's messages today, faster and better than an SRI did with the Russian spy. And no matter how hard Powell tries to convince us that the rate is going up, and inflation is transient, the olfactory organ that grows more than Pinocchio is empty. We expect uncertainties until 9.30pm, when Powell's diction can impact indices, metals and of course EUR / USD. Then comes Biden somewhere late at night, who armed with Tony Robbins 'books, and Houdini's will, will try to fool Congress into cutting a healthy slice of the Americans' ready money cake. I don't think it will succeed, at least not at the level mentioned in the press, but Piata is already more cautious than the law stipulates, only according to rumors. After all, if you ask for a block of flats, to get at least a 10-room villa, it seems like a solid strategy. Let's see where the pot closes. Until another one, do you remember that suspension bridge through China, where, in addition to the infernal balance, the glass was breaking under your feet !? So is the sensation of the markets today. But just like at that bridge, in the end everything was just imagination, and you were safely at the opposite end. After today's storm, I predict a quiet morning tomorrow. Green because it's spring. And what could be more enjoyable on a spring morning if not a collectible coffee. And a cigar eventually ... And profit in portfolios. So I'm free today. I let others shake their heads ... We'll be talking tomorrow when I think we'll have ..... EVERYTHING GREEN !!!
NYSE:DOW
by Viorex
Oil: OPEC+ sticking to raise output from MayThe originally scheduled 4/28 (3) OPEC+ ministerial meeting was held ahead of schedule on 4/27. The resolution was held on hold and was in line with market expectations. The prices of WTI and Brent crude oil futures remained stood at the prices of $63 and $66 per barrel respectively. MM Analysis On Tuesday evening, the OPEC JMMC Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (providing OPEC policy advice) recommended to maintain the agreement reached at the beginning of April (gradually increase in output by 350k, 350k, and 440k barrels per day from May to July). With the consent of 23 member states, the originally scheduled 4/28 OPEC+ ministerial meeting was also held ahead of schedule, and the resolution was held on hold and was in line with market expectations. WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices stood at $63 and $66 per barrel respectively. Although the world’s important crude oil importing countries-India, Brazil, and Japan are facing a new Covid-19 wave, creating uncertainty for the recovery of crude oil demand, the OPEC JTC (Joint Technical Committee) remains optimistic about the trend of global economic recovery, maintaining the global crude oil demand forecast for 2021 at 96.5 million barrels/day, an increase of 5.95 million barrels/day from last year, and it is estimated that the OECD commercial crude oil inventory level will be digested in July this year to below the past 5-year average. The next OPEC+ ministerial meeting is scheduled on June 1, 2021, production quotas for July and August of this year will be discussed.
NYMEX:CL1!
by MacroMicro_Global
HOLY WEEK AND NUCLEAR WEDNESDAY !! HOLY WEEK AND NUCLEAR WEDNESDAY! 10:30 p.m. Warm morning sun, some nature chirping from the birds around, a great time to enjoy a coffee. Start HOLY WEEK! Financially speaking, after a recovering Friday, it would be natural for the green to flood the Square today. And maybe it will be! But we can't help but glance over the cup of coffee at the situation of the week that seems hectic. First of all, thanks to reports, a number of world giants must be in the works. But this is not necessarily the problem, because they are expected to report well. The problem would be Wednesday, a really explosive day. Let's see why: 1. Biden's speech. Nothing can be more worrying than Biden's speech at Wednesday's joint congressional session, where he is expected to reveal the first details of his widely reported tax hike so far, planned for the wealthiest of Americans. The president of all wants an unlikely 43.4% for the richest Americans, bringing combined state and federal taxes to places like New York and California to over 50% !! No matter how difficult it will be for him to impose in the congress, in the short term the Market will react to rumors. 2. OPEC meeting Normally this meeting would sanctify the plans established a month ago if no other events happen in the last period. But ... didn't it happen ?! Well, India is the world's third largest consumer of oil, on infusions and fans literally, after a series of days with over 300k infections / 24 hours. Japan, the 4th largest consumer, also has problems with Covid ul. Iran lags behind with progress in talks with US, which may mean it will export oil again sometime in the not too distant future 3. EDF meeting Originally categorized as a NON Event, it could be an influence in various directions. Of all, I would mention the Precious Metals Market. In a long-awaited recovery, they have already stumbled at the first resistance, diverted by various external factors. One could be Powell, who enters an interview with Reuters on Tuesday, said the central bank will limit any exceeding of its inflation target. In any case, metal prices are expected to consolidate, or even decline, until Powell's post-Fed press conference. As a result, we have 3 events + quarterly reports, which can send almost any sector in almost any direction, affecting virtually the entire market. Normally, near such confluences, investors stand a little aside. Normally I said, but is it a period of normalcy !? Of course not !!! So we have 2 interesting days until Wednesday, when we hoped we would have: EVERYTHING ABNORMALLY GREEN !!!
NYSE:DOW
by Viorex
US OIL (WTI/USD) – Week 14 – Medium-term bearish.On Thursday, the OPEC+ alliance decided to gradually increase the production starting from May in order to keep crude oil prices in check. Last week, WTI corrected and almost reached the resistance target that we forecasted in our previous analysis. Next week, we expect the price to reach the resistance area highlighted on the chart, before falling towards to support area located in the mid-’50s. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
FX_IDC:USDWTIShort
by financialflagship
18
US OIL (WTI/USD) – Week 13 – Correction not over yet.WTI dropped the most since November as signs of powerful gasoline demand in the U.S. eased concerns around the global economic recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. In our previous analysis, we correctly forecasted that the price will drop and reach the support area that we highlighted. Next week, we expect the price to “correct” towards the resistance area highlighted on the chart, before breaking the low again. This move would only act as a consolidation in the bigger timeframe and in the medium-term could push the price towards the second support zone. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
FX_IDC:USDWTIShort
by financialflagship
16
US OIL (WTI/USD) – Week 12 – Bigger degree correction.WTI dropped nearly 10% as short-term demand concerns and a rising dollar clashed to cause the biggest intraday plunge since October. For this week we expect a corrective move towards the resistance area highlighted on our chart, before resuming the downtrend and breaking the trendline. The bigger degree correction that we were expecting for a few weeks has started and we expect the price to continue dropping into the mid 50’s. Trade with care. Best regards, Financial Flagship Disclaimer: The analysis provided is purely informative and it should not be used as financial advice. Remember that you need a plan before you start trading; so, take this knowledge and use it as a guidebook that will ultimately help you understand the market and easily predict your next move.
FX_IDC:USDWTIShort
by financialflagship
20