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Energy Stocks Near End of Monster QuarterEnergy is the leading sector this quarter by a wide margin. SPDR Energy ETF was up 38 percent since the end of March through Thursday’s close. That’s 7 percentage points ahead of the No. 2 consumer-discretionary fund . This creates the potential for some positive window dressing with just eight sessions remaining in the second quarter. There are also fundamental and technical catalysts. The fundamentals are fairly clear: The global economy is reopening. Oil demand is rebounding but supplies are tight. OPEC+ is reining in non-compliant countries like Iraq and Kazakhstan. Meanwhile, domestic drilling has fallen off a cliff. Did you know that the Baker Hughes rig count (a proxy for U.S. production) has hit record lows for the last six weeks? As usual, oil is a boom-and-bust industry. It just went through a major bust, which may create the potential for a boom. Technically, XLE is parked at the top of a bullish ascending triangle that it broke in early June. It’s also been fighting resistance at its 100-day simple moving average (SMA). Meanwhile, the 50-day SMA has turned higher and is approaching from the downside. This resembles the pattern on the S&P 500 a month ago before it continued upward. (See below.) XLE had a tight consolidation pattern around $54 before the bottom fell out in February. Traders may want to view that as an upside target and use the 50-day moving average for risk management.
AMEX:XLELong
by TradeStation
Week ahead - GDP and FED Decision. It has been a turbulent week for the markets and social stability. The markets extend their risk on rally during protests around the world for the death of George Floyd and a surprising 2.5m jobs that were created for non-farm employment. This is your week ahead. All dates are in NZDT. Japan’s GDP Annualized – Today, 8th June Japan is an example of a nation that has returned to a relativel normal without fully squashing the curve. This is slowly showing the cracks of their method of not officially entering a lockdown, as the daily number of average cases grow. With an aging population and slowing pre-coronavirus GDP rate, a growing Coronavirus case may not bode well for the long-term view of Japan’s GDP. Analysts forecast a drop in the growth rate by -2.3%. Euro GDP Growth Rate Year over Year – Tuesday 9th June With Italy and Spain opening their borders after a brutal Coronavirus period for both countries, citizens are looking forward to a relatively familiar normal. With the EU’s GDP predicted to shrink by 8.7%, Christine Lagarde led a charge for the ECB to inject an extra $1 Trillion into the economy. There have been 6.8M Coronavirus cases confirmed, with just under 400k deaths. Federal Reserve Interest Rate Decision – Thursday 11th June A turbulent week for the United States with protests over George Floyd’s death engulfing the public with rage. However, markets seemed to ignore the unrest, rallying on unexpected news such as the 2.5m Jobs non-farm jobs gained – a far cry from the anticipated 13.3 million job loss. Analysts predict Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to keep rates steady at 0.25%. However, investors may be interested in Jerome Powell’s Economic Projections on the same day for market-moving statements. United Kingdom’s GDP Year over Year – Friday 12th June Suffering one of the highest death rates for the Coronavirus at around 14.17%, the UK government has had many controversies with regards to their response to the pandemic. Finance ministry officials predict that the government deficit could swell to over 337 Billion pounds this year from just 55 Billion in March. GDP YOY Growth is expected to drop by 22.3%. Market recap Protests continue for a 16th straight day over the death of George Floyd by former policeman Derek Chauvin ECB unveils $1T extra stimulus OPEC+ agrees to extend cuts till the end of June, Brent and WTI futures both above $40 US continues its rally after NFP posts 2.5m jobs gained
TVC:SPX
by BlackBull_Markets
9
LONG: EXXON MOBIL CORP. (Petroleum, Oil, Gas)• Ref. the effects of COVID-19 and the OPEC (& Russian) trade disputes fuling the fall of Oil prices. • The FIA halting all motorsport events until JUL 2020 (Austrian Grand Prix). • EXXON MOBIL have a sponsorship deal with Aston Martin Red Bull Racing (Formula1 team) ~ Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc. IPO in Feb 2019 • After the effects covid start to leave the spotlight, we may see the price of petroleum rise and companies such as XOM begin to operate at higher capacities. LONG TERM TRADE -- Optimum target: ~ March/April 2021
NYSE:XOMLong
by infinityPLEX
TATNEFT High-Risk & High-Profit trading for 70+ daysAnalyze was requested by a Russian friend, who is a senior VR developer in a government company. Here we are speaking about TATN. We may need to wait up to 15 days to low prices. Nevertheless, also now an excellent time to buy some. Entry price from 371 rubs. To 533 rub. Any will be good till 30 of June. Targets: 1st 600 rubs. 12% profit at least. 2nd 665 rubs. 24% profit at least. Hold till mid of august. The idea will be updated.
RUS:TATNLong
by Kopachelli
Resistance Broken + Gap FillIn addition to the technicals... Iran has been hit harder than most countries by COVID-19 and its economy is creaking under merciless U.S. sanctions. With nowhere else to turn, the Iranian President, Hassan Rouhani has been forced to cede ground to hardliners. And these hardliners are determined to force Trump into a long and costly war. Just last week, missiles were fired at a U.S. oil project in Iraq. Then, earlier this week, a group of unidentified armed men, believed to be Iranian commandos, seized a Hong Kong-flagged tanker and escorted it into Iranian waters. We’re long $LNG PT $42 short-term is conservative.
LLong
by ShaleIntel
2
OIL - A lot of uncertainty here!Hello everyone, as we see, oil has been falling from years, 2014 was the last time we saw oil at 100$ and it is absurd to think, that oil will remain at 20$ per barrel. I have made 3 possible scenarios. First of all, nobody knows when the bottom is and at what price. When we hit the bottom, only the big players will know that this is the bottom, so we can only try to guess. Even if you buy oil at 20$, this is still an amazing price with lots of space to the upside and limited downside. 1st scenario: ( Green arrows ), We have formed a tripple bottom, 20$ is a really strong support that we can't manage to stay bellow it. Opec made a deal to cut oil production and maybe, just maybe they could make another meeting to discuss either more cuts or another way of getting the price up. Another things is if America announces that they will open their borders soon or start the economy, this could also get the price up. 2nd scenario: ( Red arrow ) If we break and manage to hold the price bellow 20$, we would head towards 10$. When the Opec deal happened, the price went down with a few dollars, so even a big cut of production is not enough. If the economy doesn't open soon and the borders remain closed, the demand for oil might go even lower. Right now we don't have any more space to store oil, so the price might infact not recover until we use up all stored oil. 3rd scenario : ( Black line ) Right now the volume is dead, smart money are waiting on the sidelines. We could see some upside around the holidays and some slight recover of the fall after the opec, but then form head and shoulders and fall to around 10-15$. All we have to do now is wait and see from this point on if we brake through 20$ again, or we get a good bounce. I think that all 3 scenarios are likely, but if you buy now and hold long-term, you will still make a lot of money. I think another fall is more likely though and the bottom would be around 10$ and it will be around May-June, when America and other countries will open their economies and borders again and this will increase the demand, which right now is really low.
FX:USOIL
by donaitelo
OIL PRICES FELL .. OPEC Oil prices fell on Monday as oversupply concerns continue to pressure prices, even as OPEC and its allies agreeing to cut production by 9.7 million barrels per day. The deal, which was finalized on Sunday after marathon discussions that spanned four days, is the single largest output cut in history. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude fell 1.54% to settle at $22.41 per barrel, while international benchmark Brent crude rose 33 cents to $31.81 per barrel. Earlier in the session WTI had been up as much as 8%. The group, known as OPEC+, initially proposed cutting production by 10 million bpd — amounting to some 10% of global oil supply — on Thursday, but Mexico opposed the amount it was being asked to cut, holding up the final deal. Under the new agreement, Mexico will cut 100,000 bpd, instead of its initial allocation of 400,000 bpd.
OANDA:WTICOUSDShort
by CeoCodes
The Oil War is "Over".. the party is over.There are so many fundamentals I exhausted on yesterday's research and analysis of the underlying factors so please have a read through those. My fundamental long bias now results from simple supply side economics. In conjunction with this, many to nearly all over-leveraged mid and large cap oil companies and their contracts (strategic partnerships/contractors) have fallen and will be consolidated. This will lower multiples, and force a much clearer focus to bottom line effenciens and choke points to very low acceptance thresholds. As oil tanks become filled to capacity, Oil cuts will reduce and inflation will raise once COVID ends and the world enjoys 10$ round trip flights and 0.96$/ gallon gas for their summer vacation with their Trump check. Things will get better economically, and Oil is undervalued it's sick. The Alliance between Opec and Russia may cease headlines for now, allowing algo's to let go and fundamentals take over in a natural market again. OPEC will cut 9.7 million bbl's per ay, just below the proposed $10 million. This is a lot of oil and is capable of suppressed asks to sustain bullish rallies. Futures now showing 30$ a bbl.. thus, I'm now long oil. Big time. Stopposses will be updated when I enter long. All oil long entries closed.. 10:37:07 (UTC) Mon Apr 13, 2020
TVC:USOILLong
by TayFx
26