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Further increase in oil is questionableThe relative calm of financial markets on Thursday. Important statistics were not published yesterday. There is nothing expected to change the current situation on Friday. So, it means we continue to work in the previous vein. While there is a cooling-off period for the main issues of concern, let's talk a little about the future of the oil market. The International Energy Agency (IEA) drew the attention of oil market participants to the fact that its more than 40% growth in 2019 is entirely due to the supply factors: OPEC +, sanctions against Iran, the problems of Venezuela and Libya - All this contributed to a reduction in supply in the market and higher prices. So,the IEA experts believe that in the second half of 2019 the market focus may shift from the supply factor to the demand factor. And in this case, the situation does not seem to favor buying oil. Recall the IMF lowered its forecasts for the growth rate of the global economy once again. It means a slowdown in oil demand For the oil market. Sum up the demand may not grow strongly enough to push oil prices up in the future. Concern about the failure of the second half of 2019 for oil is increasing by statements from OPEC that the cartel may increase oil production after June. And although the things voiced by the IEA relate to the medium term, it is worth keeping them in mind when making long-term trading decisions. Nevertheless, here and now, trading on the intraday basis is still relevant. But the stops on buying must be set and be made as small as possible. A possible quick correction in the oil market is a reason not only to think about oil sales but also about the sales of the Russian ruble, which recently has greatly reduced the level of correlation with oil quotations, however, it remains totally dependent on asset prices. Moreover, the current price of the ruble is very favorable for its sales. Recall that in addition to intraday buying of oil and ruble selling on all time horizons, we are looking for points for intraday buying of gold, as well as sales of the dollar on almost all fronts (with the exception of the Japanese yen).
by Trade24Fx
BRENT CRUDE OIL (UKOIL) (BCO/USD) 4-HOUR TIMEFRAME LONGThe price of brent crude oil (UKOIL) seems to be moving in an uptrend of late. This is because Saudi Arabia decided to take matters into their own hands and cut production, forcing the market to drive prices up (basic economics of supply and demand!). This is also coming at a time when the whole world seems to have forgotten about the bear attack on oil last year and the Kashoggi murder. But let's focus on the now. In order to enter a short, traders can wait for a retracement to the 68.46, which represents a previous support/resistance level. If you have been living in a cage, then you probably should know that OPEC stands for the Oil and Petroleum Exporting Countries, and they are the cartel controlling crude oil prices and supply. In the centre of this cartel is Saudi Arabia, which is the largest producer of oil worldwide. Muhammad Bin Salman, the crown prince of Saudi Arabia hopes to raise prices of oil for the benefit of his kingdom whilst he comes under constant pressure from westerners like who believe oil should be sold for peanuts in order for them to continue using their dinosaur fuel-guzzling Chevys and Ford trucks without feeling the wallet crunch. Guess who is at the centre of the "oil prices must fall movement"? Yes, you got it right, none other than Donny Trump!
TVC:UKOILLong
by munyaelliott
USOIL - Use In Conjunction With USDCAD ArticleAs mentioned in the previous article, I would drop a screenshot of OIL to use in alignment with the USDCAD trade as they strongly correlate with prices per barrel of oil increases, we expect the USD to drop substantially. As we can see, a pullback seems inevitable however price is still flying to the upside. I will be holding the risk free USDCAD trade through the news to see what it brings us however this is on my watchlist as i intend to catch both the short and long on the USDxxx trades and CADxxx trades. Due to the timeframe being on the daily, new candles will reflect relatively late however you can monitor price in the top left corner and look at previous price at the time of this screenshot release. Enjoy.
FX:USOILLong
by KeownArcher
NFP, May asks EU for Brexit delay, and The USA oil productionBureau of Labor Statistics reported employment data on Friday. Data on NFP pleasantly surprised “fans” of the dollar. With market expectations + 177K, in fact, came out + 196K. After the failure of the previous data, the level of fear that the US labor market is experiencing serious problems has subsided. But the mood was spoiled by data on the average hourly wage, which grew by only 0.1% (analysts had expected growth of 0.3%). In general, the data can be interpreted as positive for the dollar, but its growth was moderate. This suggests that its growth potential is limited. In this regard, this week we are looking for points for selling dollar. We give the current summary of Brexit. Theresa May officially requested the EU to postpone until June 30 in order to negotiate with the opposition and create a version of the agreement for which the Parliament will vote. However, it remains to be seen whether the EU will provide this delay or not. Last month, the EU has already refused to provide it until June 30 and may well “resist”, citing the need for a longer delay. So everything remains unclear and tense. More clarity on the idea will be April 10, when the EU will convene an emergency summit on Brexit. EU leaders will meet April 10 at an emergency summit this will clarify the Brexit situation. Recall the United Kingdom should either leave the EU without a deal or agree on a new postponement on Friday. The pound is under pressure. We continue to believe in the common sense of both parties and that the UK will not come out with no deal. Therefore, our trading tactics are unchanged - we buy a pound on descent. Trade negotiations between the US and China are still in progress, and the parties continue to radiate optimism. A few words about the oil market. Last week we already noted that the data of the US Department of Energy recorded the fact of a new absolute record of oil production in the USA - 12.2 million barrels. So on Friday, data from Baker Hughes was published, which showed that the number of oil rigs in the United States increased by 19 units. Signals are definitely bearish for the oil market. The sharp drop in oil production in Venezuela and the effect of OPEC + No. 2 offset production growth in the United States so far, and events in Libya only add optimism to oil buyers. But the situation, in our opinion, is becoming increasingly dangerous from the point of view of oil prospects. So, we still continue to look for points for buying on the intraday basis, but with a much lower level of aggression at the same time we are beginning to gradually prepare for correction, as well as open medium-term positions for sale. OPEC + No. 2 will soon expire and if it is not renewed, the massacre will begin on the oil market. The EU will probably be the main news generator. The meeting of the European Central Bank on Wednesday and the EU decision to postpone for the UK will be the main events of the week. Pay attention to the text of the minutes of the last FOMC Fed meeting, UK GDP and inflation rate for the United States. And once again we remind, April 12 is the current official date of the UK exit from the EU. In general, it will not be boring and volatile, it means there will be a lot of opportunities for earnings.
Long
by Trade24Fx
3
A full spectrum of views..Here we are dissecting the Daily chart for Oil. From a technical perspective we are completing an ABC correction after an impulsive 5 wave sequence to the downside. The first level of interest for shorts comes in at 61.14 with the possibility we can extend as high as 64.59. As long as we remain below here the moves will be considered corrective. In other words, a tick above the highs will invalidate the positions. Whilst the downside remains the main area of interest here it is worth questioning whether the market has retrace far enough already to kickstart these flows.. Best of luck and thanks for all the support in keeping the account moving forward.
TVC:USOILShort
by ridethepig
3
Trump is saved, OPEC is at a crossroads, May is in dangerSpecial counsel Robert Mueller announced the results of his two-year investigation of interference in the US presidential elections in 2016, as well as the role of Russia and Trump in it. The results of the investigation might have led to the start of impeachment proceedings against President Donald Trump. But no significant evidence was found against Trump. And this means that the impeachment is canceled (according to the bookmaker PredictIt, the probability of impeachment is about 11%, whereas last week the figures exceeded 20%, and 50% in January). However, Trump shouldn’t relax at all. Democrats promise to continue to "dig into him" - in the list of potential charges, obstruction of justice, abuse of power, corruption, etc. Despite the fact that this news is more likely a plus to the dollar, we continue to recommend its sales in the foreign exchange market. As a baseline, we consider a vector change in the Fed’s monetary policy. Fed's Charles Evans said that the Fed may ease monetary policy if the risks of a slowdown in the economy increases. As a result, markets with a 90% probability expect a reduction in rates by December. Theresa May, the situation is getting more complicated by the minute. Voices about the necessity of her resignation due to Brexit failure is louder and louder. Yesterday, Parliament voted to take control of Brexit. From now on the Parliament will determine the strategy of Brexit. On Wednesday, the most important voting will take place on options for the development of events, which include a second referendum, the decision to stay in the EU, leave the EU without a deal, or cancel Brexit. The oil market is “confused” and cannot decide whether to grow or fall. On the one hand, Citigroup analysts raise oil forecasts. In their opinion, in 2019 Brent oil will cost an average of $ 70 per barrel (+ 5% to current prices). On the other hand, the action of OPEC + No. 2 is soon coming to its end, and there is no consensus on its future fate. We should not expect clarity before April and perhaps a decision would be taken directly upon the expiration of the current agreement period - in June. Despite the lack of clarity, we see no reasons for panic and continue to recommend buying an asset on the intraday basis. Our other positions are unchanged: we buy gold on the intraday basis, we are looking for points for the Russian ruble sales (both on the intraday basis and medium-term positions).
Long
by Trade24Fx
WTI Crude oilCrude oil inventories have the sharpest decline in 8 months. With a forecast of 0.309M barrels of Crude Oil Inventories the actual figure was -9.589. On top of the dollar weakness this has caused WTI oil futures to jump above 60$. Oil is trading above the 200EMA which will act as a strong level of support. Fundamental news that are affecting the price of oil is the fact that Russia and OPEC are doing so much to decrease output throughout the world. According to OPEC+ member countries are going to reduce the output of oil by 1.2 million barrels in 2019. Also, the cartel cancelled its meeting in April, meaning that they will keep these production cuts all through the slow season of summer up until June, when they will decide future action. We believe that OPEC and its allies will keep this policy all the way through the year. A possible entry point for long position presents itself if price will dip down to the level of the 200EMA at 58.73. Entries can be made as low as 58.00 with stop losses located below 57.25.
FX:USOILLong
by YaroslavBirchenko
US Oil: Week 11 Kick OffHi Guys, Last week US Oil broke higher above the latest Trump's tweet with a run started on Wednesday. Price consolidated above Trump's tweet level with a triple bottom support throughout Thu, Fri and this morning before resuming the run pushed by the 90SMA. TO NOTE: RSI spiked briefly above 70 but lower than previous highs. Price instead kept going higher. IMHO bullish momentum may push up to 60 if sentiment picks up above 70 again shortly. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:USOIL
by cozzamara
US Oil: Week10 updateHi Guys, the arm wrestling between Trump vs OPEC shifted in favour of Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-Falih in mid-Week10. The barrier that Trump tried to build with his tweet has been broken and sentiment is now heavily overbought. The rally was triggered by remarks by U.S. special envoy Elliott Abrams that Washington planned “very significant” further sanctions on Venezuelan oil and boosted by the Crude Oil Inventories report. Also last week output was adjusted lower and U.S. crude production expected to grow more slowly in 2019 than previously forecast. Add all togheter = Oil prices go higher. Next the publication of monthly oil market reports from both OPEC and the International Energy Agency on Thursday and Friday. TIP: I read somewhere that the Canadian Dollar follows quite well Oil's move. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to put a like if you appreciate the post and to follow me if you want to receive notifications on new and updated ideas. Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
TVC:USOIL
by cozzamara
Oil starting to look exhausted...Here we are tracking a large swing to the downside in oil. I would like to fade the highs here and target the range lows (see attached idea for those wanting to target 45 in the coming months). This idea is for the coming sessions as crazy as it sounds, we have some monster moves coming on the demand side. The ECB confirmed the slowdown is real and the FED are going to continue the dovish tone meaning we have all the cards we need on the monetary side. You may also see it wise to simply sell a break of the red trend line. Stops clearly marked above the highs at 58.30 whilst targets sit below at 55.4 and 52.9. Thanks and best of luck.
TVC:USOILShort
by ridethepig
Oil: Week9 UpdateHi Guys, Monday and Tuesday it tried to move higher but was kept under the 195SMA. Wednesday tried to move higher but again failed and now the 75SMA could push it towards 55.67 level. If 55.67 level is breached Oil may dip to 55. Let's wait & see. Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Don't forget to like if you like the post and to follow if you want to receive notifications on new or updated ideas. Respect, Be Carefull and Enjoy:) Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
FX:USOIL
by cozzamara
US Oil: week 9 kick offHi Guys, ...last Friday US Oil hit 58 level again after Trump's tweet but also dropped again to find support higher than previous one at 55. Price may be entering an horizontal complex correction period between those bounderies (H58-L55) made of a combinations of double and triple threes. Strategy: Wait & See if the SMA pushes for a potential BC leg of a Zig-Zag attacking 55. An attack to 58 may be possible too if it crosses the SMA but it will depends on momentum and other external factors (i.e. USD/JPY, DXY, economic datas release, news). Thank you for your support and for sharing your ideas. Enjoy:) Disclaimer: Please note that I am not a professional trader and these are my personal ideas only. The information contained in this presentation is solely for educational purposes and does not constitute investment advice. The risk of trading in securities markets can be substantial. You should carefully consider if engaging in such activity is suitable to your own financial situation. Cozzamara is not responsible for any liabilities arising from the result of your market involvement or individual trade activities.
FX:USOIL
by cozzamara
LOONIE Looking To Hit 1.29000 Level. OIL The Main Driver!Oil is the main driver behind the CAD pairs and with the OIL market slowly recovering aided by the sanctions on Venezuela's OIL exports by the US and the cooperation among the OPEC AND NON-OPEC Producers. Many see the OIL market recovering in the near term and to further strengthen the technical picture, there is an already completed head and shoulders pattern on the US OIL chart. The greenback has started this year strongly but with FED pausing the rate hikes and thinking to start unwinding of their balance sheet later this year gives the USD modest strength to perform this year. However if compared to LOONIE, the greenback is not that strong based on fundamental picture for time-being. Looking at the main chart for the USDCAD pair, the weekly timeframe has confined the price to a long term trendline. Should the weekly trendline break together with weekly 50 EMA the price will likely be heading to test the lower trendline present at around 1.29000 level! Shall the criteria meet, i will update the trade details in a new thread. this just represents my analysis on this current pair. cheers
Short
by FX618Analysis
Oil is gonna make a run for itOil climbed, and broke through the neckline of the reverse head and shoulders pattern that has been in play for the past few months. The growth was due to supply cuts and reduced output from OPEC countries. Russia has also agreed to participate in the cutbacks. Saudia Arabia will be repairing a damaged offshore field, and this will decrease supply and increase the price of oil in the week to come. In total oil rose 4.2% the past week. Gains are being stifled by a few factors as well. US inventories are rising, the global slowdown is decreasing demand, and US output is at a record high. To counterbalance this Chinese imports of oil are rising by about 4.8% each quarter for the past three quarters. Starting on the week of February 18th China-US trade talks will continue in Washington as the leaders of both nations will sit down to reach an agreement before March 1st. Also the US may put sanctions on Venezuelan exports and further decrease world supply. So long as WTI stays above 54.00 we see a bullish play in motion. If and when oil breaks through the Fibonacci resistance level of 38.2% at the price of 55.63 we will see the biggest spike up. The next level of resistance is the 200-EMA. The first strong target of the bullish movement is 57.34 and the next target is 59.00.
FX:USOILLong
by YaroslavBirchenko
no major movement ahead for oil at least in first half of 2019I think the supply side for oil will be abundant, considering the fact the tepid world economy will not consume as much oil as the last decade. growth prospects of major economies looks dim except the US. Many institutes has trimmed down GDP growth rates in the last two month, citing significant headwinds for the world, like debt, trade disputes, geopolitical uncertainties and so forth.OPEC has every intention to reach a production cut deal for its members. Yet it can't control the behavior of non member states, especially the United States, which is the biggest producer in oil and gas and has become a net exporter. By cutting production, OPEC members probably will lose market share to other big players in export market.
ICEEUR:BRN1!
by Pento_Investment
Possible Scenarios for OILWelcome to this MONTHLY chart showing possible scenarios over the next years, after OIL has bounced once again on the level of $50 in the past months potentially taking us higher near term up to $70. Let us now depict the possible scenarios out of this market, with the conditions that would trigger any of them and some arguments supporting each. The first thing to consider, is that after the bounce at $50 and its current positive trend, it would be very likely that the levels of $70 could be tested before the end of 2019. Given the recent US sanctions against the Venezuelan government, affecting the OIL supply coming from that country, prices might see an immediate fuel until $70 levels are tested. However, if the level of $70 is reached it might be wise to consider that this level has acted before as a resistance and act carefully then. Would see a good long trade only if this level is surpassed, where we could expect prices reaching up to $84 until 2021, where the the next possible resistance is located. Now, given that Oil has seen the surge of Shale Oil increasing the supply in the market, and the fact that at these price levels Shale is pretty much profitable, we could see a downward bounce on the levels of $70, back to $50 by 2021. An added pressure to the downside would be a production adjustment from OPEC, as well as the world's efforts to increasingly develop renewable energy supply around the globe, which would affect the demand for oil in the long run. If we see carefully, a possible head and shoulders could be formed by the fractal formed if the price bounces back from $70, resulting in prices below the level of $50 after 2021. Well, there they are. Two possible scenarios. Upvote if you liked it!
OANDA:BCOUSD
by TradeSniperAI
Is the oil uptrend here to stay? Oil has been on a tear thus far in 2019 and I expect nothing short of a full fledged rally should we break above $58. The weekly and monthly time frames look very bullish, as there's no clear supply levels to overcome. I expect oil to be one of the best performing investments of 2019. With that said, oil is considered extremely volatile and very contingent on geopolitical affairs. A break below $50, and we could witness a drop to the $45 zone. The two biggest fundamental factors driving price action right now is the political turmoil in Venezuela and OPEC's ongoing production cuts.
FX:USOILLong
by en1gm9t-c
Crude: Long first, then SHORT !The slowdown in the world economy, especially the Chinese one, which is the country with the highest demand for fossil fuels, will have a negative impact on stockpiles, dropping the price considerably. Institutional investors, and not, have started to bet downwards on both WTI and BRENT and it is very likely that this rebound is due to profit taking only. Moreover, to weigh on this scenario there is the choice of the United States to increase the extraction, compromising this sort of very unstable equilibrium that are trying to create the OPEC countries on a production reduction pact that seems to be compromised. Summing up, in the medium term we expect another descent with a target of $ 40. In the very short term, however, the situation is different: at the technical level it has broken the dynamic resistance identified by the EMA20 daily and is aiming the next, most important, EMA200, placed about 5 dollars above the ema20. In the very short / short period, we expect to reach the $ 60 area.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by BFCMInvest