Opec
OIL; The Black GoldTechnology are now rising to a greater extent. Thus energy company are now shifting to renewable energy even greater.
Usage of electrical devices is a necessity nowadays, with vehicle, public transportation are developing energy-efficient engine that drive their work.
It is believe that price will went up eventually, before thrives downward as future minds are becoming aware of pollution and ecosystem.
However, please watch price action and economic news on OPEC countries decision before we decide to ride on trades.
Trade well, risk less.
TAYOR
WTI LONGOPEC and allies agree to cut oil production by 1.2 million barrels per day
Major oil producers have reached a deal to cut oil production and boost the market.
The alliance will to take 1.2 million barrels per day off the market.
OPEC has agreed to exempt Iran from cutting production, Iranian Energy Minister Bijan Zangeneh said
On a technical perspective we reached a nice mirror level and we are likely to see a push back to recent highs or a creation of a higher high.
USDMXN: Topped as per the weekly timeframe...I think the Peso will regain strength over time from this juncture. The weekly Time@Mode trend signal we had here expires next week but price already seems to be trending down in the daily timeframe, and broke a previous weekly low, so I think we're safe to assume the decline started already. The G20 talks and oil related news might be behind the strength in commodities, EM currencies and weakness in the dollar.
Either way, I'd like to have some exposure to oil and gold, at the very least, but also look into agricultural futures and related stocks, since the trade truce signaled strength might be seen in these markets. Another interesting market to monitor is tech, in particular $QCOM in the event of a merger...I'll be watching $SPY, since I fear it is a bit stretched, and might go back down, if it's still range bound and not trending.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
OPEC-JMMC Day: Oil and Loonie – Tentative moves?By Andria Pichidi - November 20, 2018
USDCAD and USOil, H4 and Daily
USOil prices reached an overnight high of USD 57.44 per barrel. The 4-day run higher in Oil prices, after a period of sharp declines, has helped the Canadian Dollar find a toehold. The contract has been supported by talk of a proposed production cut into year-end by OPEC and Russia, which was the main drive of yesterday’s sharp move higher, ahead of the December 6 meeting to be held in Vienna.
Bloomberg reported that Russia is in wait and see mode with regards to production cuts, quoting Russia energy minister Novak as saying producers need to “better understand both the current conditions and the winter outlook” before agreeing to cuts.
WTI crude is softer today, with prices having fallen back to levels just under $57 per barrel, after a 4-day rebound phase. Meanwhile USDCAD has retreated around the day’s Pivot Point at 1.3170 after pegging a 3-session high at 1.3202 yesterday. This puts Friday’s 12-day low at 1.3126 back in the scopes.
In the daily time frame, the cross has been seen moving within an ascending triangle since mid October, rebounding yesterday away from its lower trend line. As the price holds above the rising trend line, USDCAD remains in strong bullish sentiment in the medium picture. Only in case of a penetration along with the break of 20-day SMA and 23.6% Fib. level since October’s dip, would it find a Support level within 1 .3065-1.3078 area (38.2% Fib. level and 100-day SMA.)
Currently however, the market seems to be in a bullish mode overall, given that USDCAD is still trading above all the daily SMAs and with momentum indicators holding in the positive area. RSI has flattened above neutral and MACD dropped slightly below the trigger line, but remains well above zero line. Hence despite the fact that in the long term bullish bias holds strongly, in the near future, some consolidation is possible based on the flat RSI and small decline in MACD but also on the fact that 100 and 50 day SMA have been flattened in the daily chart. Resistance to the upside is set at yesterday’s high at 1.3200.
A jump above this resistance level could meet November’s high of 1.3263 . Further increases could move the price towards the 1.3300-1.3320 area.
As CAD and Oil are vulnerable to the possible OPEC plans to cut production, any remarks today from officials attending the OPEC-JMMC meeting, will weigh on the two assets. Nevertheless, BoC Wilkins speaks later today as well.
Andria Pichidi
Market Analyst
HotForex
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bearish on /clon the next few days and possibly next week I see a retest of the 55 area of support for /cl before attempting to break the resistance area of 59. I don't see oil bullish until we get a clearer direction as to what is going to happen with OPEC in December. until then I continue to be bearish.
WTI Light Crude Oil Monthly Chart- With Possible Wave Count!Current crude oil price may retrace to as high as 58.8, then a possible new drop to as low as 53.5.
Then a big correction may followed to trade higher above $60/bbl.
LONG TERM EVENTUAL TARGET MAY BE TO AS LOW AS $20/bbl.
ONLY SUSTAIN TRADING ABOVE $80/bbl negate this scenario!
WTI - Possible Downtrend reversalToday, oil spiked higher on the news of the possible OPEC and allies production cuts in 2019. Alongside with all the technicals outlined below, it would be reasonable to open a longer-term buy trade.
Daily:
1. Extreme oversold RSI reading
2. Bounce of an important support zone just under 60$ level
3. Break of the downtrend line on the RSI
4. Early buy signal on STCH + extreme oversold
4 Hour:
1. Break of the downtrend from 28th October
2. A buy signal on Slow Stochastic indicator
3. Attempt to break the 20d EMA
The trigger of this long trade should be the 4h candle close above the downtrend line +the 20day EMA. SL below the recently established low and TP1 at the 78.6% FIB (4h) & 38.2% FIB (daily).
Support my analysis by giving LIKES and FOLLOWS. It helps the channel grow and motivates me to post free content.
WTI and 10Y yieldsSo far this month rates were showing the future move for oil. Is it the case this time? Rates are falling meanwhile oil skyrocketed on Saudi Arabia's case. Poor equities outlook weighs a bit on oil's demand. In my opinion oil will drop from current levels. The viwer should pay attention to both technicals and fundamentals right now as situations of oil markets send worries accross the globe
USOIL: Correction in a monthly trendI'd reccomend to stand aside, or, look to trade the extremes of the range if you are adept at chop trading. In my case, I'm more of a trend trader, but could look to trade $PBR on dips to support and exit when valuation is stretched again, after an overbought rally...Or stocks like $OXY, or refineries, like $MPC, $PBF, etc.
If you expect oil to make a big move, you will get disappointed and probably buy into fake breakouts multiple times, to then get tempted to sell or flip short on fake break downs...The green vertical line on chart is the estimated time required to start a big monthly trend again. Until then, expect a volatile sideways range.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
WTI (US OIL) Potential Bearish Crab Pattern In Play On 1 Hr TFThis is by no means a trade signal. even if the pattern completes you can enter at your own risk. i will not simply enter the trade even if the pattern completes. there are some other technical analysis needs to be done before simply just entering the trade. But hey anyways if there are any updates i will be updating here accordingly.
WTI (US OIL) At 61.8 Previous Monthly Swing High! At One time OIL was crashing and burning like a Meteoroid and This past number of months it has been recovering quite well it would suggest. However in the path of OIL recovery there lies a strong resistance of 74, which not only happens to be a crucial support but also a 61.8 golden ratio retracement of the pervious Monthly swing high. Refer to the image below (Monthly charts). A Short opportunity looks great and the probability is also in our favor however i feel the correction will be a minor one and the price might test the crucial 55 level before resuming the uptrend
On the Weekly chart a channel has been developing for quite some time. If the prices are likely to reverse then the price must break the channel and the EMA50 for this to happen. A potential short opportunity can be taken when the price retests the EMA 50.
To confirm this potential break to the downside the daily chart also displays a dynamic trendline that had been acting as resistance and now acting as support since the price broke up. A potential break and retest of the trend line would add to the many confluence factors that the OIL is about to slightly reverse before resuming its Uptrend in the near future
So in short, i am waiting for the channel violation on the weekly charts and i will base any possible entry from the daily chart. Oil is a commodity and from my experience technical analysis itself is not enough to study commodities as they are strongly driven by supply and demand i.e fundamental news. So overall before going short on this pair its advised to read the current and future fundamentals affecting the OIL market
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UKOIL breakout - USA Oil inventories in the spotlightHello traders,
In spite of the OPEC Oil production boost estimated in 1 Mn daily barrels, UKOIL has been soaring aproaching 3,5 years highs close to USD 80; since the production supply increase was expected over 1 Mn and the real supply boost might finally be around 600k daily barrels.
Now the price is retreating from USD 79-80 level, after being unable to break those level in recent months.
UKOIL is facing a clearly medium term bearish momentum since:
- There is a bearish RSI divergence.
- USD 79-80 range unable to be broken.
- Critical technical breakout level.
- OPEC boosted production slightly.
Today we have the USA OIL inventories market mover.
Enjoy your trading!
Adrian Lopez de Armentia - EFA
Crude oil breaks the downtrend line, or is it a false break? Crude oil continues to fall after we saw a squeeze over $70, the question is how low will it go? Today we look at the technicals and so far, still more downside to go. Combine with a monthly candle, the break of the downtrend line may be a false break, or it may not. Only time will tell...
Happy Trading, folks!
Cheers.
Crude Deal coupled with Technicals to take Prices Lower.Expecting a double top on double divergence leading to an "M" pattern taking oil back to missed monthly pivot.
Saudis have indicated that their crude production will increase substantially come August, and it will be not by the "hundreds of thousands, not tens of thousands, of barrels.(1)"
1.) Reed, Stanley, "Saudis, Saying They Heard Price Complaints, Are Raising Oil Production." New York Times, June 23, 2018
A Good Day To Trade WTI Crude Oil - EIA Report & OPEC Meeting UpI'm speculating that the inventory draw by 2.1 million is already priced in. Therefore, the oil prices may drop on the release of EIA report. That being said, I will be looking to stay bullish above $65.02 to target $66 before the release of news today. All the best and stay tuned for updates. Keep following!
OPEC+: the beginning of the endThe growth of oil from $ 30 to $ 70 is the merit of OPEC+ (an agreement between a few key oil producers on the cumulative reduction in oil production by 1.8 million barrels per day). The main role in this agreement was played by Saudi Arabia and Russia. The result of OPEC + was the elimination of surpluses from the oil market (world inventories were reduced to the level of a five-year average).
But recently there have been many alarming signals for oil buyers: the oil market participants are increasingly asking: will the OPEC+ deal be extended for 2019? In addition, Russia and Saudi Arabia are increasing production, which analysts interpret as an indirect refusal from OPEC + and in fact the end of this deal.
According to the Wall Street Journal, Saudi Arabia last month increased its oil production by more than 100,000 barrels per day and plans to increase it by at least 100,000 b/d this month. At the same time, according to the consulting company Kpler, which tracks the movement of oil tankers leaving Saudi Arabia, the country has increased oil exports by 300,000 b / d since mid-May. At the same time Russia calls for increasing the quotas for oil production.
As can be seen, conversations about the soon collapse of OPEC + do not appear in an empty place.
Given that US oil production has almost reached 11 million barrels per day, there are reasons to believe that the abandonment of OPEC + and the start of a new market race for a market share will lead to the formation of a medium-term downward trend in oil prices. Now oil is close to the long-term highs, so we consider current prices as extremely attractive for opening mid-term short positions with targets at the bottom of $ 40.
If we talk about more local purposes, for example, this week, then sales in the $ 66 area with lower-end targets of $ 60 also look like an excellent trading opportunity (case of WTI oil). Especially considering that oil reserves in the US have recently increased and exert additional downward pressure on quotes of "black gold".
Oil Short term correction?....we shall seeLooking at it from a technical analysis, if the price of Oil makes that "double dip" (W) with the RSI or MACD having a higher low on the second dip, we may be looking at the price of oil potentially breaking out of this uptrend channel and creating higher highs. Ofcourse, the fundementals of an increase in US production and from OPEC may drive prices below the uptrend channel for lower lows.