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GBP/NZD: Bearish Outlook Confirmed by Head and ShouldersThe GBP/NZD exchange rate at NZ$2.1922 reflects a persistent downtrend, confirming recent weakness in the British Pound against major counterparts. The formation of a head and shoulders pattern on the daily chart suggests further downside risk, with the pair testing key support levels. Market fluctuations between NZ$2.1754 and NZ$2.22 highlight ongoing volatility driven by external economic factors, including U.S. tariffs and mixed macroeconomic data from both the UK and New Zealand. The Pound remains under pressure due to inflation concerns and lackluster GDP growth, while the NZD struggles to capitalize on the Pound’s weakness amid subdued domestic data. The technical setup and broader macroeconomic landscape signal a potential continuation of bearish momentum for GBP/NZD.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Reversal of US Energy Policy Could Push Crude Oil LowerNYMEX: Micro Crude Oil Futures ( NYMEX:MCL1! ) #Microfutures On January 20th, President Donald Trump signed an executive order, “Declaring a National Energy Emergency”. This sets the tone of US energy policy for the next 4 years. By declaring national emergency and raising energy independence to the highest level of national security, President Trump introduced sweeping measures to fast-track energy infrastructure and regulatory approvals. In a 180-degree reversal, the new administration abandoned the Climate Change policies championed by the Biden presidency. Other executive orders saw the US quitting the Paris Climate Accord and cancelling pushes into renewable energy and electric vehicles. This marks a major turning point in the price trend of crude oil. Since Mid-January, WTI prices have already retreated 11%, while Brent was lowered by 10%. In my opinion, WTI futures could fall to the pre-Pandemic price range of $45-$64 a barrel, with a midpoint target at $55 in 2025. My logic follows: US oil production will rise, benefiting from the new energy policy As of 2023, the U.S. produced about 14.7% of the world's crude oil, surpassing Saudi Arabia and Russia. This makes the US the largest crude oil producer globally. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) estimated the domestic oil production at 13.2 million barrels per day (b/d) in 2024. It recently forecasted the US output to grow to 13.5 and 13.6 million b/d, in 2025 and 2026, respectively. Considering the complete makeover of US energy policy, I think the next EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) would show measurable upticks in its production forecast. Threats of Tariffs could curtail global oil demand Last week, the US slapped a 25% tariff for Canada and Mexico, and a 10% tariff for China on top of those imposed during the 2018-19 trade conflict. While the tariffs for Canada and Mexico are on hold pending trade negotiation, China retaliated and announced new tariffs on US goods at rates ranging from 10% to 15%. Rising global trade tensions would increase costs and raise the prices on store shelves. Declining sales would lead to production reduction. Eventually, a slowdown in economic activities will result in less demand for crude oil. The January STEO report forecasts global oil consumption growth to be less than the pre-pandemic trend, at an increase of 1.3 million b/d in 2025 and 1.1 million b/d in 2026. With the impact of higher tariffs, I expect the next STEO to show further deterioration in its oil consumption forecast. Lifting of oil embargo could release more supply to the global market The new administration campaigned to end global military conflicts. In my opinion, a US brokered peace treaty between Russia and Ukraine is on the horizon. Iran and the US could resume talks soon. Both scenarios could see the existing oil embargo being lifted. In 2024, Russia is the 3rd largest oil producer with 10.75 million barrels a day, while Iran ranks 7th with 4.08 million. Together, they contributed to over 18% of global oil output. Market trades on expectation. Oil prices would respond quickly with the emergence of any planned negotiation. OPEC+ to increase crude oil production The STEO forecasts the OPEC+ to relax production cuts. Following an annual decline of 1.3 million b/d in 2024, it expects growth of 0.2 million b/d in 2025 and a further increase of 0.6 million b/d in 2026 from OPEC+ producers as voluntary production cuts unwind. Additionally, STEO expects further production growth from countries outside of OPEC+, including the United States, Canada, Brazil, and Guyana. Commitment of Traders shows bearish sentiment The CFTC Commitments of Traders report shows that on February 4th, total Open Interest (OI) for NYMEX WTI Futures is 1,765,342 contracts. “Managed Money” (i.e., hedge funds) own 204,272 in Long, 60,136 in Short and 393,098 in Spreading. • While they maintain a long-short ratio of 3.4:1, hedge funds have reduced long positions by 36,310 (-15%) while increasing short positions by 11,085 (+16%). • This indicates that “Smart Money” is becoming less bullish on oil. Crude oil prices typically rise on the back of geopolitical tensions, supply disruptions, and economic growth. We are likely to witness the retracing on all these fronts. Another reason for the rising prices in most financial assets has been the abundance of liquidity, leading by the $2-trillion-a-year US deficit spending. The Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) made significant headways into cutting government expenditures. This could help remove some of the premiums on asset prices. Trade Setup with Micro WTI Futures If a trader shares a similar view, he could express his opinion by shorting the NYMEX Micro WTI Futures ( GETTEX:MCL ). MCL contracts have a notional value of 100 barrels of crude oil. With Friday settlement price of $71.0, each March contract (MCLH5) has a notional value of $7,100. Buying or selling one contract requires an initial margin of $586. NYMEX crude oil futures are among the most liquid commodity contracts in the world. On Friday, standard WTI futures ( NYSE:CL , 1000 barrels) has a trade volume of 784,820 contracts and an OI of 1,796,265. Micro WTI has a trade volume of 54,038 and OI of 19,178. The Micro contracts allow traders to tap into the deep liquidity of NYMEX WTI market, while requiring only 1/10th of the initial margin. Hypothetically, a trader shorts March MCL contract and WTI prices pull back to our upper price range of $64. A short futures position would gain $700 (= (71 - 64) x $100). Using the initial margin as a cost base, a theoretical return would be +119.5% (= 700 / 586). The risk of shorting crude oil futures is rising oil prices. Investors could lose part of or all their initial margin. A trader could set a stop loss while establishing his short position. In the above example, the trader could set stop loss at $75 when entering the short order at $71. If crude oil continues to rise, the maximum loss would be $400 ( = (75-71) *100). To learn more about all the Micro futures and options contracts traded on CME Group platform, you can check out the following site: www.cmegroup.com The Leap trading competition, #TheFuturesLeap, sponsored by CME Group, is currently running at TradingView. I encourage you to join The Leap to sharpen your trading skills and put your trading strategies at test, competing with your peers in this paper trading challenge sponsored by CME Group. www.tradingview.com Happy Trading. Disclaimers *Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services. CME Real-time Market Data help identify trading set-ups and express my market views. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
NYMEX:MCL1!Short
by JimHuangChicago
1
GBP/JPY: Finally, the Rate Cut Has Arrived!GBP/JPY is facing significant bearish pressure, with the price dropping to around 188.40 in the recent sessions on February 6, 2025. The main catalyst behind this trend has been the Bank of England’s interest rate cut of 25 basis points, bringing it down to 4.5%. This decision has intensified the weakness of the British pound, prompting investors to liquidate long positions and fueling the strong decline in the pair. The market is now pricing in the possibility of further rate cuts in the coming months, which keeps sentiment firmly bearish. From a technical perspective, the breakdown below the key level of 190.50 has confirmed the loss of bullish momentum. Even the recovery attempts seen in previous days, such as the rebound to 193.00 on February 4, have proven weak and incapable of reversing the primary trend. The current phase of weakness could lead the pair to test further lower support levels, with 187.50 and then 185.80 as possible bearish targets unless there is a positive reaction from the pound. On the macroeconomic front, the divergence between the BoE and the Bank of Japan could theoretically provide some medium-term support for the pound, given that the BoJ continues to maintain an ultra-loose monetary policy. However, the market currently seems more focused on the deteriorating economic outlook for the UK and the increasing likelihood that the BoE will continue cutting rates, enhancing the yen’s appeal as a defensive asset. If risk-off sentiment intensifies, we could see an acceleration of the bearish trend in GBP/JPY, especially if the global market enters a more pronounced risk-averse phase.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD: Between Rebound Hopes and Tariff TensionsThe EUR/USD pair experienced a strong rebound on Tuesday, rising by 0.8% and breaking a six-day losing streak, although it failed to reclaim the 1.0400 threshold. Despite this recovery, bullish momentum remains fragile as the euro is heavily influenced by broader market flows and the anticipation of upcoming US Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) data. The pair found initial support at the weekly low of 1.0209 on February 3, with a potential decline towards the 2025 bottom of 1.0176 if this support fails. A break below this level could pave the way for a test of the psychological parity threshold. On the upside, resistance is identified at 1.0532, the year’s high recorded on January 27. The pair’s recovery was driven by a weakening US dollar, as the Dollar Index (DXY) fell below the 108.00 support, influenced by market reactions to President Donald Trump’s plans to delay a 25% tariff on Canadian and Mexican goods while maintaining a 10% levy on Chinese imports. Although the US dollar has weakened, the tariff issue is expected to strengthen its position in the long term, potentially supporting a bullish outlook for the currency. Central banks also play a crucial role: the Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged last week, signaling a cautious approach amid strong economic growth, persistent inflation, and low unemployment. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut rates by 25 basis points, hinting at possible further easing while expressing optimism about controlling eurozone inflation. ECB President Christine Lagarde emphasized a data-driven approach, ruling out the possibility of aggressive rate cuts. Trade tensions, particularly those linked to US tariffs, could further complicate the euro’s outlook. Prolonged tariffs could fuel inflation in the United States, prompting the Fed to adopt a more hawkish stance, which could strengthen the dollar and put pressure on the euro, potentially pushing the EUR/USD pair toward parity. Looking ahead, the euro faces challenges from the resilience of the US dollar, divergent monetary policies between the ECB and the Fed, and structural issues within the eurozone, such as Germany’s economic slowdown. While short-term rallies are possible, the overall outlook for the euro remains uncertain, with persistent risks related to geopolitical tensions and tariff policies likely to shape the pair’s trajectory.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/AUD: The Impact of Tariffs on MarketsThe GBP/AUD exchange rate showed mixed movements from January 27 to February 4, 2025, closing at 1.99489 on February 4 with a decline of approximately 0.42% compared to the previous session. Despite a modest rally on February 3, with an increase of about 0.58%, the subsequent downturn signals prevailing bearish sentiment. This fluctuation highlights a cautious market environment influenced by several key factors. A technical report dated February 4 highlighted a symmetrical triangle pattern where, despite a bullish crossover of the 9-period moving average above the 14-period moving average, the price remains confined between a resistance level around 2.0050. This range-bound behavior reflects traders' hesitation as they await a decisive breakout to confirm the next directional trend. Additionally, geopolitical factors have significantly impacted volatility. The announcement of new U.S. tariffs by President Trump temporarily pushed GBP/AUD above 2.012. However, this rally was short-lived, with the rate retracting shortly after due to market adjustments, demonstrating the pair's sensitivity to external economic policies. Furthermore, risk-off flows have contributed to intermittent strength in GBP/AUD, but the overall sentiment remains mixed. Technical indicators and the persistent narrow trading range indicate ongoing uncertainty, applying continuous downward pressure on the pair.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Will Oil jump against Trump's requests?On a technical perspective, Oil could reverse from the current price and start to climb again targeting buyside, as we have seen a divergence between Brent and WTI. However, it looks like Brent is weaker and might not be able to validate higher prices. Next week's OPEC meeting could clarify the direction, as I do not believe they will succumb to President Trump's requests of lowering Oil prices massively, and we could be looking for a volatile month.
FX:UKOIL
by microhedgefund
1
Trump's pressure on OPEC prompted the drop in USOIL prices. President Trump's steadfast dedication to lowering oil prices is driving the decline in WTI prices. During the WEF in Davos, Switzerland, he made it clear that he would demand Saudi Arabia and OPEC to reduce the price of crude oil. He boldly stated that lower oil prices could potentially lead to an end to the war in Ukraine. According to CSIS, Trump's call for reduced oil prices is a positive move for consumers and businesses but it is the one that the US oil industry will regard with caution. Failing to rise above EMA21, USOIL shows consolidation near 73.40. The price remains within the descending channel, and both EMAs have widened apart, indicating a potential continuation of the bearish momentum. If USOIL fails to breach EMA21, the price may fall further to the support at 71.50, where the channel’s lower bound coincides. Conversely, if USOIL breaches above EMA21 and the channel’s upper bound, the price could gain upward momentum to 74.50
TVC:USOIL
by inkicho_exness
USD/JPY: Will the Fed or BoJ Dominate the Tug of War?The USD/JPY exchange rate has shown both resilience and vulnerability in recent trading sessions, shaped by competing factors from monetary policy shifts to global economic developments. On the positive side, the U.S. dollar remains underpinned by Federal Reserve rate decisions, with market expectations of steady rates in the near term supporting its strength. Tariff threats from the U.S. administration further bolster the dollar’s safe-haven appeal, particularly as external economic pressures persist. Additionally, the pair has demonstrated an ability to recover from lower levels, such as rebounding to 155.50 during Tuesday's Asian trading, aided by softer Japanese service-sector inflation data. However, the Japanese yen has also gained momentum due to the Bank of Japan’s recent 25 basis point rate hike, which reflects a confident stance on inflation and wage growth trends. This decision has increased the yen’s attractiveness as a safe-haven asset, exacerbating pressure on the USD/JPY pair, particularly as global uncertainties and shifts in risk sentiment encourage investors to diversify into safe havens like the yen and the Swiss franc. Market sentiment surrounding U.S. economic vulnerabilities, including concerns over tariffs and a potential dovish shift by the Federal Reserve, has further weighed on the dollar. Traders are now pricing in a 50 basis point rate cut by the Fed later this year, a factor that could erode the dollar’s appeal if realized. Overall, while USD/JPY has displayed moments of strength, the competing influences of U.S. dollar dynamics, Japanese yen strength, and global market sentiment create a volatile environment where traders must remain vigilant of economic data and central bank decisions.
Long
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Gold: Under Attack, Key Support in DangerThe gold market is experiencing significant volatility, with prices undergoing a correction after approaching multi-month highs. Currently, XAU/USD is trading around $2,740, below the key resistance at $2,790, as recent declines reflect a mix of profit-taking, technical pressures, and macroeconomic factors. Recent selling has triggered a natural correction after prices neared significant resistance levels, while expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have been scaled back, strengthening the US Dollar and putting further pressure on gold prices. Algorithmic trading has also amplified the declines. Market sentiment has been impacted by comments from the US President regarding tariffs, which have boosted the dollar and reduced demand for gold as a safe haven. Additionally, weak PMI data from China in January has indicated economic contraction, fueling global risk sentiment and further weighing on gold. Despite the recent drop, gold previously benefited from a weaker dollar and geopolitical tensions, which pushed prices near record highs. However, trade concerns and the recent strengthening of the dollar have reversed this trend. Technically, gold finds provisional support around $2,730, although further bearish pressure could push it toward $2,700 or lower. The key resistance at $2,790 remains challenging to breach without positive macroeconomic momentum or a weaker dollar, while $2,730 acts as the first defensive level, followed by $2,700, which could serve as a stronger base. Traders should focus on upcoming events, including the Federal Reserve's rate decision on January 29, which will directly influence the dollar and, consequently, gold prices. A more hawkish stance could intensify pressure on gold. The European Central Bank’s decision on January 30 could also shift global sentiment, while US Q4 GDP data may play a role, as strong growth figures could further support the dollar and limit gold’s upside potential. Gold is currently in a correction phase, and while key resistance stands at $2,790, support near $2,730 remains crucial. If this support level breaks, gold could face additional downside pressure, though signs of a global economic slowdown or dovish signals from central banks could spark a recovery.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
WTI - The fate of oil with Trump's policies?!WTI oil is located between EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour time frame and is moving in its upward channel. In case of a downward correction towards the demand zone, the next opportunity to buy oil with a suitable risk reward will be provided for us. The China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) has stated that China’s crude oil production is expected to increase by 1% by 2025, reaching 215 million tons. Additionally, China’s crude oil imports are projected to grow by 1%, reaching 559 million tons. The CEO of Aramco has noted that robust demand from China will continue to drive global oil demand growth. He predicts that oil demand will rise by 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025. Donald Trump, the President of the United States, has directed his administration to revoke the “Executive Order on Electric Vehicles.” This move aims to roll back regulations on vehicle emissions and fuel efficiency standards, which he claims unfairly restrict consumer choice. This directive, part of a broader executive order focused on energy, also calls on regulators to consider “eliminating unfair subsidies and other misguided government interventions that favor electric vehicles over other technologies and effectively mandate their purchase.” On Monday, President Trump signed several energy-related executive orders, declaring a “National Energy Emergency” and launching measures heavily favoring fossil fuel development and production. These actions are seen as a blow to the energy policies of the previous administration under Joe Biden, which aimed to bolster the renewable energy sector. The new executive orders focus on boosting domestic energy production and lowering consumer costs. In December, energy prices rose, contributing to overall inflation. Key drivers of the fuel price increases included: • Colder-than-expected winter weather, • Supply concerns driven by sanctions and geopolitical conflicts, • Optimism about demand stimulation from China. Pilot Company, owned by Berkshire Hathaway, has decided to cease its international oil and fuel trading operations. This decision comes after months of restructuring and the dismissal of many traders. The President of the Petroleum Association of Japan has stated that despite Trump’s policies, uncertainty remains regarding increased oil and LNG production by U.S. energy developers. He also noted that there is little likelihood of an immediate increase in oil imports from the U.S., as Japan prefers to maintain a stable supply of crude oil from the Middle East, which is more compatible with Japanese refineries.
TVC:USOILLong
by Ali_PSND
GBP/USD: BOE Is Ready for the Big Cut!GBP/USD shows mixed signals, remaining below 1.2350, influenced by economic and political factors in both the UK and the US. After a strong rally on Monday, the pair lost momentum on Tuesday, driven by the recovery of the US Dollar and overall disappointing UK labor market data. The rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4% and a slowdown in employment growth weigh on the Pound, despite an annual wage increase of 5.6%. From a technical perspective, the RSI on the 4-hour chart signals a loss of bullish momentum, approaching the neutral level of 50 after being in the overbought zone. Key support levels are located at 1.2230 and 1.2200, while resistances are seen at 1.2350. The Pound is also affected by an uncertain macroeconomic context, with Trump's comments indicating potential tariffs on China, Mexico, and Canada, supporting a recovery in the Dollar due to its safe-haven status. In the absence of significant US economic data, investor focus shifts to stock market performance: a negative opening on Wall Street could support the Dollar, exerting additional bearish pressure on GBP/USD. In the short term, the pair may remain under pressure, with a potential test of key support levels, unless more solid signs of Pound strength or Dollar weakness emerge.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USD/JPY Under Pressure: Yen Strengthens Amid Bearish MomentumThe USD/JPY pair exhibits a clear bearish inclination, driven by a combination of economic and market factors that are strengthening the Japanese Yen and weakening the US Dollar. Currently, the pair has dropped to approximately 155.60, recording a 0.44% loss for the day, with sellers evidently attempting to push the price further toward critical support levels between 154.90 and 153.15. The downward pressure is amplified by rising expectations of a rate hike by the Bank of Japan, further supported by recent positive data such as improvements in Japan’s core machinery orders, signaling a recovery in capital expenditure. Simultaneously, uncertainty surrounding the economic policies of the Trump administration contributes to a negative climate for the US Dollar, which is already under pressure from a recent slowdown in buying flows. From a technical perspective, the pair has encountered significant resistance in the 156.55-156.60 region, a level that halted previous recovery attempts and now acts as a key barrier. For a meaningful trend reversal, a sustained breakout above this resistance, followed by consolidation above 157.00, would be necessary to pave the way toward recent highs at 158.00 or even 158.85. However, the likelihood of a downward breakout seems more tangible, considering that the support at 155.25 represents the last defense before a drop toward the psychological level of 155.00 and further toward 154.60 and 153.30. The current market environment, characterized by reduced trading volumes due to Martin Luther King Jr. Day in the US, suggests caution for traders, as dynamics could quickly shift with the return of liquidity and the announcement of potential monetary or political decisions in both Japan and the US. The combination of positive economic data for Japan and expectations of higher rates positions the Yen in a place of strength, while the Dollar may continue to struggle without a clear positive catalyst. Holding below 155.00 would be a significant signal for bears, indicating an extended downward trajectory toward deeper support levels.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Brent - Peace returned to the Middle East?!Brent oil is above EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4-hour time frame and is moving in its upward channel. On the ceiling of the ascending channel, we will look for oil selling positions. In case of a valid break of the $80 range, we can see the continuation of the downward trend. On the other hand, within the demand zone, we can buy with a suitable risk reward. Brent crude oil prices have surpassed $80 per barrel. This price increase continues to be supported by declining U.S. crude oil inventories and uncertainties surrounding Russian oil supplies following new U.S. sanctions. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has stated that the latest U.S. sanctions have the potential to significantly disrupt Russia’s energy exports. These sanctions have blacklisted over one-fifth of the tanker fleet transporting Russian oil. Last week, 160 sanctioned tankers transported over 1.6 million barrels per day of Russian oil in 2024, accounting for approximately 22% of the country’s maritime exports. However, the IEA has maintained its current outlook on Russia’s oil supply and will update it based on future developments. Meanwhile, reports indicate that Israel and Hamas have reached a ceasefire agreement, though Israel’s Prime Minister’s Office stated that details are yet to be finalized. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu thanked U.S. President-elect Donald Trump for his role in the Gaza agreement and announced plans to meet him in Washington soon. Netanyahu also expressed gratitude to U.S. President Joe Biden for aiding in the hostage agreement. A senior Hamas official confirmed the group’s commitment to the ceasefire proposed by mediators. In the oil market, attention remains focused on uncertainties surrounding Russian oil supply after the announcement of stricter U.S. sanctions. Additionally, declining U.S. crude oil inventories provide further support for prices. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 1.96 million barrels last week to under 413 million barrels, the lowest level since March 2022. This decline was primarily due to a decrease in crude oil imports by 304,000 barrels per day and an increase in exports by 1 million barrels per day. In refined products, despite a 1.6% drop in refinery utilization, gasoline and distillate inventories rose by 5.85 million barrels and 3.08 million barrels, respectively. The Colonial Pipeline, which transports about 1.5 million barrels per day of gasoline from the U.S. Gulf Coast to the East Coast, is expected to remain closed until Friday following a leak earlier this week. This has provided limited upward support to gasoline prices. The IEA and OPEC have both released their monthly oil market reports. The IEA warned that new U.S. sanctions on Russia’s energy sector could lead to supply disruptions. Additionally, the agency revised its global oil demand growth forecast upward due to colder weather in the Northern Hemisphere. The IEA estimates that global oil demand in 2024 will increase by 940,000 barrels per day, 90,000 barrels per day higher than the previous estimate. For 2025, demand is expected to grow by 1.05 million barrels per day. OPEC, in its monthly report, maintained its 2025 oil demand growth estimate at 1.45 million barrels per day. For 2026, the group’s initial forecast predicts an increase of 1.43 million barrels per day. OPEC also kept its 2025 supply growth estimate for non-OPEC+ countries unchanged at 1.11 million barrels per day and expects a similar increase for 2026. OPEC’s production in December rose slightly to 26.74 million barrels per day, while overall OPEC+ output fell by 14,000 barrels per day to 40.65 million barrels per day due to reduced production in Kazakhstan. OPEC data indicates that demand for OPEC+ crude in 2025 will reach 42.5 million barrels per day and rise to 42.7 million barrels per day in 2026. Iraq’s Oil Minister Hayan Abdul-Ghani told Reuters that Iraq plans to sign a major oil and gas deal in Kirkuk with BP by early February. He noted that this deal will surpass the scale of the major 2023 agreement with TotalEnergies.
BLACKBULL:BRENTLong
by Ali_PSND
XAU/USD Analysis: Gold's Bullish Momentum Eyes $2,790The analysis of XAU/USD highlights a strong bullish momentum in the short term, with gold prices reaching a one-month high above $2,700 on January 16, 2025. This rally was supported by contrasting U.S. economic data: while consumer spending showed strength, the increase in unemployment claims contributed to a decline in U.S. Treasury yields, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Optimism regarding a possible Federal Reserve rate cut, driven by cooling inflation, has further strengthened positive sentiment toward gold, which has posted three consecutive sessions of gains. From a technical perspective, the breakout above the key resistance level of $2,697 opens the door to a potential target of $2,740, reinforcing the current bullish trend. However, traders remain focused on upcoming economic events, including the Federal Reserve's rate decision at the end of January and the release of CPI and Non-Farm Payrolls data in early February, which could significantly impact market sentiment. Expectations suggest that a potential rate cut or weak macroeconomic data could continue to support gold prices, while signs of economic strength or a rate hike might trigger bearish pressure. In the medium term, gold could fluctuate between $2,650 and $2,800, with the market remaining sensitive to monetary policy developments and inflation dynamics. In the long term, potential geopolitical stabilization and a global economic recovery could reduce interest in gold as a safe-haven asset, bringing prices to a range between $2,500 and $2,600.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/GBP: Ready to reach the level 0.83!The EUR/GBP exchange rate is currently in a bearish phase, trading near 0.8440 as of January 15, 2025. The key resistance level at 0.8445, which has been a significant barrier since September, has once again hindered upward attempts. The recent downward pressure has been influenced by the halt in the rally of UK gilt yields, following weaker-than-expected inflation data. This factor, combined with growing concerns about stagflation in the UK, creates an unfavorable environment for the Pound, increasing the likelihood of a dovish stance from the Bank of England. On the European side, the stabilization of inflation in the Eurozone provides relative support for the Euro, further reinforcing the bearish sentiment on the EUR/GBP pair. Key upcoming events in the short term include the BoE rate decision on January 25, 2025, which could significantly impact the Pound: a more accommodative stance would further weaken the British currency, favoring an upward movement in the pair. This will be followed by the Eurozone GDP data release on February 2, 2025, and the PMI results for both the UK and the Eurozone in early February, with the potential to influence market dynamics depending on the relative strength of their economies. Market sentiment remains oriented toward short-term stability, with limited movements expected until new significant signals emerge from economic data or central bank decisions.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
3
EURUSD: Pullback before the crash!The EUR/USD continues its downward trend, recently touching a new cycle low around 1.0176 as the US Dollar maintains its relentless rally, fueled by rising expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for an extended period. The Greenback’s strength has been amplified by a fifth consecutive bullish session, with the DXY surpassing the critical 110.00 level. Investors have sharply revised their outlook on Fed policy, reducing the probability of significant rate cuts in the near term. This shift in sentiment follows a robust Nonfarm Payrolls report and hawkish remarks from Fed officials, emphasizing the priority of taming inflation before contemplating further easing. On the policy front, while the Fed recently trimmed its benchmark rate to 4.25%-4.50%, Chair Powell’s cautious tone during the final press conference of 2024 left markets in little doubt that any future rate cuts will be gradual. Powell underscored the need to anchor inflation closer to the 2% target and pointed out that despite some softening, the labor market remains resilient. This narrative has bolstered USD demand and widened the divergence with the European Central Bank’s stance. In contrast, the ECB faces mounting pressure to sustain its easing cycle amid a deteriorating economic outlook across the eurozone, particularly in Germany, where industrial performance has been lackluster. Despite a marginal rise in inflation figures for December, ECB policymakers seem committed to prioritizing growth over inflation control in the short term. This divergence in central bank policies has created a headwind for the euro, further weakening EUR/USD and increasing the likelihood of a test of parity. Adding to the complexity, potential trade policy shifts under the incoming US administration could inject additional volatility. Proposals for renewed tariffs could stoke inflationary pressures in the US, compelling the Fed to adopt a more aggressive tightening stance. Such a scenario would exacerbate the euro’s struggles, as a stronger USD and continued ECB easing would widen the interest rate differential between the two economies. Looking ahead, the focus will remain on key data releases, including US CPI and Retail Sales, alongside eurozone Industrial Production and German inflation data. These reports will offer crucial insights into the respective economic trajectories and may set the tone for future price action. However, in the current context, the EUR/USD appears poised to remain under pressure as the fundamental backdrop heavily favors the Greenback. Until there is a significant shift in economic or policy expectations, the pair may continue its march towards parity.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD Bearish - FOMC Release!EUR/USD trades near 1.0320 after dipping to a low of 1.0275, with recent price action reflecting a prevailing bearish sentiment driven by employment data, a cautious Federal Reserve, and concerns over potential tariff measures by President-elect Donald Trump. Technical indicators on the daily chart show accelerated declines in negative territory, suggesting the likelihood of further downside movement. In the short term, the bearish outlook remains intact as EUR/USD continues trading below all its key moving averages. The 20-period SMA has lost bullish momentum, positioning below longer-term SMAs and confirming persistent selling pressure. Meanwhile, technical indicators maintain a negative slope, signaling further potential losses. The pair experienced a sharp drop ahead of key US economic data amid reports that Trump might declare a national economic emergency to implement a broad tariff program. Despite holding near session lows, EUR/USD showed little reaction to the ADP Employment Report, which revealed that the US private sector added 122K jobs in December, below expectations of 140K. Additionally, Initial Jobless Claims for the week ending January 3 came in at 201K, better than the expected 218K but lower than the previous 211K, with no significant impact on the pair’s price. The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to reduce the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, bringing it to 4.25-4.5%. The decision was made in response to economic data showing solid expansion in economic activity, a labor market displaying slight easing signals, and inflation still above the 2% target. Although some Committee members considered keeping the rate unchanged as a valid option, the majority agreed that further easing was necessary to support the economy and continue reducing inflation toward the established target. From an economic standpoint, real GDP continued to grow at a sustained pace in the fourth quarter of 2024. Inflation, as measured by the PCE (personal consumption expenditures) price index, slowed compared to the levels recorded in the previous year, though it remained elevated. Employment data indicated an increase in the unemployment rate to 4.2%, with a slight decline in labor force participation. International indicators pointed to a slowdown in economic growth across several advanced economies and declining inflation, mainly due to lower energy prices. From a financial market perspective, the Committee observed a degree of stability in money markets and short-term funding conditions, despite high political and economic uncertainty. Long-term Treasury yields remained stable, while the dollar appreciated against major foreign currencies, reflecting expectations of diverging monetary policies between the United States and other advanced economies. The Committee also discussed the future path of monetary policy, indicating that if data continued to show declining inflation and an economy near full employment, it might be appropriate to further slow the pace of monetary policy interventions. However, members emphasized the need to maintain a cautious approach, considering both upside and downside risks to inflation and economic activity. Key risks highlighted included potential changes in trade and immigration policies, as well as possible geopolitical tensions that could impact global supply chains. Finally, it was decided to proceed with the process of reducing the Federal Reserve's holdings of Treasury securities and mortgage-backed securities (MBS), maintaining a monthly cap on reinvestment of principal payments.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
GBP/USD Holds Key Level Amid US Data WatchCurrently, GBP/USD is attempting to hold above the 1.2500 level after hitting an intraday high of 1.2575, but pressure from a strengthening US Dollar, driven by positive economic data, has capped further gains. A sustained move above this level could pave the way for new bullish targets, with the first resistance area at 1.2620-1.2630, corresponding to the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement, followed by 1.2700, which aligns with the 78.6% retracement level. On the downside, the first significant support stands at 1.2302. The recent strength of the Pound has been supported by broad-based USD weakness earlier this week, driven by improved market sentiment, which reduced demand for the greenback as a safe-haven currency. However, risk flows could be influenced by upcoming US macroeconomic data. Traders are focused on December’s ISM Services PMI and JOLTS job openings data. A reading above 50 has strengthened the Dollar, signaling expansion in the services sector.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
Brent Oil Poised for a Rally!Brent crude prices are currently influenced by a combination of strong geopolitical and climatic factors. At present, WTI is trading around $73.30 per barrel, nearing its highest levels since October 2024, as investors closely monitor the potential impact of colder weather in the United States and Europe. Seasonal demand for heating oil is expected to rise, providing additional support to crude prices. Simultaneously, China’s economic policy plays a crucial role in shaping the global energy market, given its status as the world’s largest crude importer. Recent stimulus measures announced by Beijing, including ultra-long-dated treasury bonds and initiatives to boost investment and consumption, have heightened expectations for increased fuel demand. Support from the People’s Bank of China, which anticipates a potential interest rate cut in 2025, along with the Shanghai Stock Exchange’s commitment to further open capital markets to foreign investors, strengthens the country’s economic recovery outlook. In addition to these dynamics, the outlook for Iranian exports remains a critical factor for the Brent market. Goldman Sachs forecasts a decline in Iranian production by approximately 300,000 barrels per day by the second quarter of 2025, lowering the country’s total output to 3.25 million barrels per day. This drop is attributed to the anticipated tightening of sanctions under the new Trump administration, which could curtail global supply and support higher prices. The combination of rising seasonal demand for heating oil, growing demand from China, and reduced Iranian supply could sustain an upward trend in Brent prices in the short to medium term. However, it remains essential to closely monitor geopolitical developments and major central bank policies, as any significant changes could alter the current outlook.
TVC:USOILLong
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
XAU/USD toward $2500 before a new high!Gold's recent performance and future outlook continue to be influenced by a complex blend of technical indicators, macroeconomic events, and geopolitical factors. As of Friday, XAU/USD registered a slight retracement below $2,650 after a significant 1% increase on Thursday. The minor pullback coincides with a stabilization in the US 10-year Treasury yield around 4.57%, which traditionally exerts downward pressure on non-yielding assets like gold. On the upside, gold faces key psychological resistance at $2,700. Conversely, immediate support levels are positioned around $2,640. A break below these levels could signal a deeper correction; however, current sentiment suggests resilience in the face of such potential declines. Fundamentally, gold's stellar 27% annual return in 2024, the highest since 2010, underscores its renewed appeal as a safe-haven asset amid persistent global uncertainties. Geopolitical tensions remain a primary driver of demand. Recent reports about heightened US-Iran tensions, including contingency plans regarding Iran's nuclear facilities, increase the risk premium for gold. Additionally, the prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to foster a risk-averse environment, further bolstering gold's safe-haven allure. From a global economic perspective, developments in China also play a crucial role in determining gold's trajectory. The anticipated rate cut by the People's Bank of China (PBoC), coupled with proactive measures to stimulate economic growth, is likely to support gold demand as a hedge against potential currency depreciation. Moreover, the Chinese government's commitment to fostering consumption growth through ultra-long treasury bond financing signals continued support for economic expansion, indirectly benefiting gold demand. Upcoming macroeconomic events in the United States will be pivotal in determining short-term price action for gold. The U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls report is expected to provide critical insights into the labor market's health. A stronger-than-expected report could strengthen the US dollar, potentially capping gold's gains. Conversely, a weaker report may reinforce gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset. Additionally, the U.S. CPI release will offer further clarity on inflation trends, a key factor influencing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance. Higher-than-expected inflation could prompt the Fed to adopt more restrictive measures, applying downward pressure on gold, while softer inflation data may provide a supportive environment for continued bullish momentum. In terms of market positioning, traders are advised to adopt a cautious approach in the short term, given the potential for heightened volatility surrounding key economic data releases. A hold rating is prudent for the next month, pending further clarity on macroeconomic conditions. In the medium term, a buy rating is justified, supported by ongoing geopolitical risks, persistent inflation concerns, and central bank gold purchases aimed at diversifying reserves. Over the long term, gold remains an attractive asset, with analysts projecting a 15% to 20% price appreciation over the next five years, driven by structural economic challenges and sustained demand for safe-haven investments.
OANDA:XAUUSDShort
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
USD/JPY: After Testing 158.07, Ready for a Bearish Move?The analysis of the USD/JPY exchange rate reflects a complex combination of macroeconomic, monetary, and geopolitical factors influencing the pair's performance. During the Asian session on January 3, 2025, USD/JPY dropped toward 157.00, highlighting bearish pressure driven by a deterioration in risk sentiment and weak Chinese PMI data, which increased demand for the Japanese yen as a safe-haven currency. Reduced activity due to Japanese holidays amplified exchange rate movements. Nonetheless, Japan’s December manufacturing PMI showed a marginal improvement to 49.6 from November’s 49.0, although it remained in contraction territory for the sixth consecutive month. Recent dynamics have been influenced by declining U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year yield at 4.62% and the 2-year yield at 4.32%, temporarily weakening the U.S. dollar. However, the greenback’s resilience is supported by expectations of fewer rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025. The DXY remains near 108.00, reflecting the dollar's intrinsic strength, further corroborated by solid U.S. economic data and persistently high inflation, with Tokyo's CPI rising to 3.0% year-over-year in December. In Japan, the government and the Bank of Japan (BoJ) maintain a cautious stance. The BoJ has emphasized that potential adjustments to monetary policy will depend on wage dynamics and inflation, which is expected to approach the 2% target in 2025. While the minutes of the latest meeting left room for gradual rate hikes, the likelihood of significant actions in the short term appears limited. This strengthens the expectation that the interest rate differential will continue to favor the dollar over the yen in the medium term. The global geopolitical and macroeconomic context also adds to uncertainty. Recent statements from Japan’s Finance Minister expressing concerns over unilateral and sharp currency market moves suggest potential FX interventions in the event of further yen depreciation. However, such interventions would likely have only a temporary impact, given that structural monetary policy dynamics remain favorable to the dollar. Investors are closely monitoring upcoming macroeconomic events, including U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (January 10, 2025), which could confirm further strengthening of the U.S. labor market, and the U.S. CPI release (January 15, 2025), which will provide insights into the Fed’s future monetary policy trajectory. The BoJ’s monetary policy meeting is another key event, as any signal of monetary normalization could trigger yen strengthening. In the short term, the pair is expected to remain near current levels, with a potential test of the 158.07 resistance. In the medium term, the trend remains bullish, supported by the interest rate differential and the strength of the U.S. economy. In the long term, however, potential economic reforms in Japan and global monetary policy normalization could reduce the dollar's appeal against the yen, pushing the exchange rate lower.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
1
EUR/USD: Key Levels to Watch!EUR/USD stabilizes around 1.0400, with low volumes and a cautious market favoring a resilient US Dollar. The technical setup remains bearish: the 20-period moving average acts as dynamic resistance at 1.0470, while the 100 and 200-period moving averages confirm the downward trend. Technical indicators are weak and lack clear direction, highlighting the absence of bullish momentum. Key support is at 1.0370, with immediate resistance levels at 1.0440 and 1.0470. Fundamentally, the Dollar benefits from a stronger US economy and expectations of less accommodative monetary policies, while the Euro faces pressure from weak sentiment and uncertain economic prospects in the Eurozone. Key events, such as the Global Outlook Report and the FOMC meeting in January, could increase volatility. In the short term, the outlook remains bearish with the risk of approaching parity. However, the medium and long term could offer buying opportunities, supported by potential economic recovery in Europe and a weaker Dollar after the peak in US interest rates.
Short
by Forex48_TradingAcademy
2