Get started

Opec

USOIL: Expanding on the analysis$USOIL has given us further clues with the recent developments. After the futures expiration, we had a big drop, but bulls supported the price before hitting levels that would put the rally in danger in the short term. We now have an active uptrend in the daily, and the end of a short term daily downtrend today, which indicates to me that we will see immediate upside in oil. If you for some reason aren't long, you can definitely join longs here, or on slight dips, and aim for the targets on chart, at least. This might end fulfilling a monthly uptrend signal, which could propel oil to the upper 60s, to even $100+-5 as an extreme target. Check out my previous publications, I have been moderately on point, capturing the extremes of the range, and I think now we might be able to catch the next trending leg, let's wait and see. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
13
OPEC cuts backfire as shale firms thwart rebalance goalsThe future of OPEC's output cut deal will be determined at a meeting in November, said the Oil minister of Kuwait. This news was a signal that members of the cartel may revise quotas for production earlier than expected. In May, the members of the organization decided to extend the agreement for another nine months, until March 2018, but pressure from the shale producers may force OPEC to re-join the price fight. So far, the cartel is responsible for monitoring compliance with the agreements, which by the way, were taken fairly tepid. So in Iraq, production decreased by only 28% from the proposed quota, while in other countries the fulfillment of obligations fell to 75%. The outcome of a technical meeting of OPEC in St. Petersburg was the introduction of quota for Nigeria at 1.8M barrels. The country has not yet reached this limit. Both good and bad implications foroil market sentiments had the news that decision of the world's largest mining company BHP Billiton to sell shale business in the US. It should be noted that a number of shareholders of the concern, such as Elliott Management Corp. And Tribeca Investment Partners repeatedly called on the leadership to take such a step, which could be dictated by the increased risks in the future for this industry. Probably the company decided to protect itself in advance from the difficulties of fighting for a market share with OPEC producers, foreseeing a limited potential for growth. This version is very plausible, given that the last fiscal year the concern ended up with a profit of $5.89 billion. Today, oil prices continue to retrace, although less pronounced than on Monday. Reports API and EIA on Wednesday likely will not be able to realize their capabilities of market catalysts, given the decline in US inventories due to seasonal increased fuel consumption. On Friday, an assessment of the prospects for global growth by the heads of the Central Bank at the symposium in Jackson Hole may be reflected in oil quotations, as the supply side dilemma forced participants to pay attention to the sentiments on demand side. Economic expectations in the euro area have deteriorated slightly, the ZEW poll showed. The index fell from 17.5 to 10 points in August, the average forecast was 15.0 points. The US currency recoups after a massive sell-off on Monday, but futures on the federal funds rate continue to show pessimism in anticipation of Yellen's peaceful remarks on Friday. However, given the overheating of the US stock market, strong consumer sentiment and demographic changes hindering inflation (which is beyond the control of the Fed), the regulator's head will probably indicate that monetary policy will be conducted according to the planned rate. Arthur Idiatulin, Tickmill Market Analyst
TVC:USOILShort
by Tickmill
1
USOIL: Long term and intermediate term viewI'm holding oil longs, and exposure to oil via correlated equities, and looking to ride the upcoming trend. It is likely to see a breakout in the short term, this might ignite a monthly, and potentially quarterly uptrend continuation signal. This falls in line with what the quarterly downtrend suggested, time and price wise. The price target was exhausted ahead of time, and after that we saw a strong rally, and for a long time, we have been in a consolidation and accumulation phase. The expected time to consolidate before rallying was reached now, so, it is highly probable to see a massive rally in oil from here onwards. Daily charts show an already active uptrend, and a continuation signal after a pullback. Bears might get squeezed in little time. The potential upside is huge, so, don't miss it. If you didn't buy oil yet, you can try buying on dips, or at market open, and averaging in for a couple days with a wide stop under the recent lows. Energy stocks are also a good idea, you would have to do your own research here, but, focus on companies that have strong correlation to oil prices. Best of luck! Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
13
Oil Short - Is 2018 the year of 38-48 Oil? Thank you Mr. Musk..If you view my last published chart you can get a fairly clear view of the sideways consolidation that I'm expecting to continue in the coming weeks, in a 45.6-50.4 range, the main trading meat being 46.81-49.18. This range is based on major Supply and Demand (2009 Rally) levels during what I consider Fair Value oil prior to the US initiating QE following the 2008 financial crisis. Oil prices have swung 'around' this range for the past 2 years and I've been (im)patiently waiting for extended consolidation in this range around it's long term critical midpoint of 48 in hopes to see a repeat performance of the July 2015 swing around 48 and then 10 dollar drop down to 38.X; and it appears that this may be culminating. Tim Cook has stated that the electronic transportation is not the future, it is here. Elon Musk is working towards production of 10,000 Model 3's per week by the end of 2018, his more affordable version of the Model S. Lets face it, OPEC has not come through and the battle for market share will likely continue in the years to come and we've seen that the 50 dollar level is again contending for a supply/selling level for at least the mid term and I can't help but wonder whether 2018 will be the year of 38-48 dollar oil? This is a risky entry as we saw an unexpected monster rally on Friday, although still within my sideways range and just breaching the supply/selling zone on the October contract. This chart is a bit unorthodox for me using channel lines and mainly looking at previous cluster/range levels and channel lines vs, my typical supply/demand inflections which I am a firm believer in. You can zoom out or scroll left to get a better view of the overall ranges and structures that I am looking for prices to repeat. SL is difficult on this, I have a nice buffer built following my stagger chart, see "Oil - Possible Sideways Range' and so am willing to keep a bit deeper stop than what typically risk management would call for as I am continually using smaller staggers into and out of my larger position move, which has proven very beneficial in increasing overall ticks in the position trade. I will describe in subsequent updates why the 47.04 -38.01 levels are pertinent to 2009. Please let me know if you have any questions or comments. The Trade: Short Entry: Active: 48.8-49.6 TP1 or Average Down Level: 41.00 TP2: 38.00-39.00 Good trading all!
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by smitheric1970
8
Oil - Possible Sideways RangeFollowing an extreme drop from the 53 level and clear demand in the 43-46 area, along with a weakening DX yet likely rate hikes later this year, ongoing oversupply, yet continued promises form OPEC to meet the agreed upon cuts, I just do not see a catalyst midterm for a break up or down form the current range. 45.62-50.37 is a range created in '09, a swap zone created between harsh supply during the economic crisis and demand following the initiation and strengthening of QE in '09. This range has been somewhat of a median range for the past couple of years as longer term supply/demand is being realized. Anyhoo.... I believe the main meat of the coming range will be roughly the .25-.75 levels of this range. This is not a specific trading plan, just a hypothetical scenario for sideways ranging with supply kicking in around 49 and demand around 47, please see the chart for specifics. Upthrusts towards the top of the overall range near 50.4 would not surprise me. If... this comes to fruition and prices see a couple of full swings int the range, 47-49 offer 200 ticks, and 2 full swings in the range would offer 800 ticks. It's possible that none of this plays out but again, I just do not see a catalyst short term for a larger break up or down. If this range plays out, 4-8 weeks would not surprise me. The stagger marks: if playing multiple positions, a portion are held from supply when shorting for the entire range and a portion for staggering are bought and resold at each line if it offers a pullback and vice versa for demand on the way back up. A simpler stagger method would be to just close half positions at the 48 level in either direction or to just pick your best risk/reward in either the supply or demand zone and trade the entire range. Hopefully this made sense, if not, all questions and comments are welcome. I wil add a couple chart over the next few days to show where the original 45.6-50.36 range was created in '09 as well as a Sept-Nov 2015 range that I think prices are ranging in the upper half of (43.85-49.55; I am specifically looking at the 47.04-49.55 portion of that range) Good trading all!
NYMEX:CL1!
by smitheric1970
18
Saudi Arabia reminds OPEC is a "team game"The second week of August features by a rather sluggish start as the economic calendar is relatively boring and most of the sensitive data have already found their way to the market. So the first marked miss in the eurozone's macroeconomic statistics happened in the German manufacturing sector - output fell by 1.1% in June after rising for five consecutive months. The median forecast was at 0.2%. Together with the pace of construction which slowed down by 1% in the same month, this indicates a slowdown in economic activity in the leading economy of the eurozone. Data is likely to be a signal for caution for euro buyers before the release of the report on GDP in Germany in mid-August. The common currency however does not simply give up, gripping an edge against the dollar. A strong payrolls report was a rather unexpected start for US statistics in August, as it ran counter to other indicators that indirectly indicated the weakness of the labor market. The number of jobs increased by 208K, wages by 0.3% tallying with the forecast, and unemployment fell to 4.3%, reviving hopes for a third Fed rate increase this year. Futures on the rate estimate the probability of a December increase in 47.0% compared to 42.8% last week. The dollar won back losses against most of the majors, but the lagging buoyancy for the European economy provides strong poise for EURUSD, which, however, only increases the probability of continuing Friday's correction to the level of 1.17. The British pound showed indifference to the sensitive data on household spending in the UK. The Markit report published on Monday showed that consumption, a key component of GDP, declined for the third consecutive month, showing the worst dynamics since 2013. The positive background for the pound, taking into account economic data and details by Brexit, is becoming more and more precarious, so with the growth of the dollar, the GBPUSD pair may adjust to the level of 1.29 this week. The dynamics of oil prices is becoming increasingly ambiguous as the fundamental background is equally filled with both positive and negative components. On the one hand, there are falling inventories in the United States, Saudi Arabia's export cuts in August, CFTC data, indicating a net gain in long positions. On the other hand, there are problems with the commitment to OPEC quotas, output growth in Libya and Nigeria, the uncertainty of the policy of shale companies in the United States. Contango market with prices above $ 50 is definitely a favorable environment for expanding the production of American firms, so this negative factor will definitely manifest itself. Today, prices fell by 1% under pressure of uncertainty before the OPEC meeting, but the results of the meeting will probably bring prices for a little more than $50 as taking into account the efforts of Saudi Arabia, the positive outcome of the meeting is very likely.
TVC:USOILShort
by Tickmill
2
Long Oil - 47.4 Touch, Peek, BreakI want to say first that this is a risky entry; with oversupply and OPEC possibly disagreeing on continuing/extending/deepening cuts at next week's meeting Monday, we could see prices tumble into the 40.3-41.4 level; however, I think we may be in for some mid term boring 45-48 sideways price action for a while before any larger movements and that prices will take a crack at the 49 level soon. I sometimes see a series of swings at a strong price level, signs of strength chiseling away at sellers on the way up or buyers on the way down, in this case 47.4; we saw a touch, then a peek through (where I am hoping we lost a few sellers) and I am now looking for a break of 47.4-47.5. I am targeting a weekly inflection on the CLU7 (September) contract at 48.04, then 49.27; and am suggesting taking partial profits at 48.00 and closing at 49.16. Again, this is a risky entry in lieu of the selloff last week into Monday's OPEC meeting and the success of this trade seems completely dependent on OPEC supporting temporarily convincing the market of higher prices with cut agreements (which at this point is getting hard to believe). Trade: Active Entry: 45.30-45.60 SL: 44.64 TP1: 48.00 Close partial positions (I will likely suggest re-adding these partial positions at 47.5) TP2: 49.16 Good trading all!
NYMEX:CLU2017Long
by smitheric1970
17
Simple math for Oil or why inventories data doesn't workPromising Chinese data and the dollar rout on Tuesday became short-lived growth factors in oil prices. After a sharp recovery by more than 1%, a pullback followed, returning the market to its starting position. Prices continue to remain sensitive to US production data, but a steady decline in commercial inventories (EIA, API data) seems to have exhausted itself as a positive catalyst for the market. Since mid-April, oil has steadily declined from US commercial storage, but prices have moved down the slope, ignoring traditionally positive signals. It clearly corresponds to rising US production though. The markets probably referred the inventories drop to seasonal factors, such as increased fuel consumption in the summer months while generally turning to a fairly simple math - a reduction in OPEC production vs. aggregate production growth in the US, Libya and Nigeria. In three months, US firms added 150K barrels in output. while production in Libya has increased from 500K in early April to more than 1M barrels to day. Production in Nigeria has been also remaining unchecked. According to the forecast of EIA, shale production in August will increase by about 100K barrels. Comparing the dynamics of production in the US and OPEC members allowed for unlimited production, the latter contribute significantly to the glut of the market. OPEC's ability to agree with its own participants - Libya and Nigeria looks more realistic than with the US, so the waiting bulls have something to hope for. Other positive factors include news-triggers, such as improving economic situation in the economies of Asia, the main consumers of hydrocarbons and disruptions in supplies that have a short-term effect. A technical meeting with OPEC, Russia and Libya will be held July 22 in St. Petersburg where Libya, according to some sources, is going to share plans for production or in other words seek for tradeoffs with the cartel. Brent has a good chance to test $ 50 and even go higher. The US dollar stopped the downward movement after panic on Tuesday, as the president's seat for Trump turned out to be far from comfortable with the opposition of not only Democrats, who skillfully led the information war, but also among the ranks of Republicans. Health care reform is a failure, Trump is severely constrained as a reformer in his movements, so the failure of the mood of some investors who made a bet on reflation was inevitable. The Fed significantly lowered the degree of confidence in the comments about the economy, which became even more logical after the inflation slowdown in June. The growth of mortgage approvals by more than 6% in June, taking into account the growing rates of the Fed, has become an excellent support for the dollar today.  After leaving the US market, in particular the dollar, investors are preparing for a big event in the euro area, where the ECB is preparing to move to a cycle of policy normalization, that is, a transition from stimulus to restraining measures. Some investors consider Draghi to be "obsessed" with inflation targeting, who stubbornly scrutinize only certain details of the economic picture, but his caution may be justified given the rather low prices of oil and CPI lagging behind the target by almost a third. As mentioned in the previous article, Draghi will not be in a hurry to blow off the dust from the levers of monetary restraints, and probably will prefer to throw cold water to investors by mentioning the fragility of inflation. In the Japanese economy, even the fragile inflation is not the case. It shows signs of life but remains extremely sluggish and the Bank of Japan will probably have to announce the extension of ultra low rates and asset purchases at a meeting on Thursday. In this light, the pairs CADJPY and AUDJPY have more room for growth amid a clear demonstration of the intention to move to tightening the banks of Australia and Canada.
TVC:USOILLong
by Tickmill
Long USOILUSOIL inventories , In the United States, crude oil inventories last week dropped the most in 10 months.Crude inventories fell 7.6 million barrels in the week to July 7, to 495.35 million barrels. The decline was the biggest since the week ended Sept. 4. it will be a good for USOIL less inventories and strong demand from china, it could support usoil price to rise further. As technically USOIL trading the range of impluse with had a strong support near 43.90 , As dips hold above this level expect oil to continue higher. we don't like t to selling here. Buy USOIL 45.40/45.10 Target: 47.10/48.40 Stoploss: 44.72 gud luck ! #forextuitions
TVC:USOILLong
by Forextuitions
5
Oil climbs but how far?Hey guys, here are some thoughts for today :) So oil prices advanced in the Friday morning and head for the best gains since mid-May thanks to the production cuts in the US underpinning hopes for market rebalance. According to the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the US oil output fell by 100,000 barrels per day to 9.3 million barrels per day last week while oil production in Libya has reached 1M barrels per day, an informed source told Reuters on Thursday. The prices also benefited from dollar slump. Market players note signs of a recovery in the North Sea. This, in turn, may mean that those "bearish" sentiments that pushed prices down last week and provoked a serious reduction in net long positions for both grades were not entirely justified. Another bearish signal may be the strengthening of oil production in Canada, as reported by Financial Times. The country has the third largest oil reserves in the world and able to increase hydrocarbon production, jeopardizing the implementation of the OPEC + agreement aimed at restoring the balance of supply and demand in the oil market. In recent months, Canadian oil companies have reduced capex, but production on old fields will be maintained for at least 18 months. The Canadian Petroleum Producers Association forecasts an increase in oil production by 270,000 b/d in 2017 and another 320,000 b/d in 2018. The pace of production growth in Canada for several next years may lag behind only the US, said the senior director of the analytical company IHS Markit. Pound is stable dismissing release of a weak confidence index of British consumers, which fell in June deeper than expected amid parliamentary elections and the beginning of negotiations about the terms of the UK's exit from the European Union. The British are increasingly concerned about their own finances, and for the future of the country's economy. The reading of the indicator in the current month decreased to minus 10 points, the minimum since July 2016, when the British responded to the results of the referendum on Brexit, compared to minus 5 points in May. Dollar futures flattened near 95.50 ahead of the weekend.
TVC:USOILLong
by PipVision
3
Oil: Might have bottomed here, next week the downtrend expiresAs discussed in the KHL chatroom, it is likely that oil has bottomed here, considering the sentiment extreme and the situation in Saudi Arabia, with Mohammed Bin Salman appointed as the next in line for the throne, replacing his uncle: www.bloomberg.com This is an interesting signal in its own right, maybe signaling a bottom, which Tim West pointed out as logical. Sentiment is very negative, with analysts claiming oil is basically a 'worthless commodity'...do your own due diligence. Good luck! Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
19
Medium-term Bearish Gartley on EURGBP (250 pips)Hey all, I've mapped out the potential completion of a bearish bat pattern that should signal a reversal for this particular pair. I'm setting the entry just beneath the 0.786 level of the larger Fibonacci retracement so that the movement can be confirmed to be reversing. Following the entry, we have 3 potential target areas that the price might be headed towards: The first is derived from a strong monthly S&R level and the 0.236 level of the smaller Fibonacci retracement. The second area is the one that I'm hoping the price will hit simply because it combines both local Fibonacci retracements as well as a solid enough daily S&R level. The third target area is a bit of a long-shot but it does feature several significant points of interest so I'm including it here as a potential bonus. Setup Entry: 0.86987 TP: 0.86639, 0.85562, 0.84880 SL: 0.87192 (This might be a little too tight for some people, so you can just set it above the D leg completion if you want)
Short
by Cohiba93
Oil Long - Post OPEC Groin KickIn a previous chart 'OIl Rangebound - 45.62-50.37' I targeted a 50.4 upside and assumed that prices may stay ranged in that overall zone; but prices broke above; so my next 'Kitchen Sink' chart looked at 50.4 as a buy level; but prices broke hard back down below. So... I do not think that the upside was a false upthrust, I believe that prices are pivoting the 50.4 level until a larger breakout occurs, which I believe will be to the upside. After much excitement of my last buy level at 50.4 being reached it was soon thwarted by a swift kick in the groin by OPEC and I saw my long entries stopped out. Never makes for a fun day... Based on weekly levels (discussed in the 'Oil - Rangebound' chart, I believe oil was in a 45.6-52.40 range; however during the past 2 weeks prices have seen significant bounces on a weekly level at 45.6 and 48.21 (both major weekly inflections from 2008 and 2015) - I will repost the weekly chart discussing those long term weekly inflections later this weekend. Following yesterday's drop, if prices had remained near the 48.21 level, I would likely have been short minded still looking possibly for the 46-47 level; however, as we saw a significant bounce at the 48.21 level on high volume; I believe that yesterday's ugly drop was just a correction and that weekly markup will continue to the upside. As we have FOMC likely raising interest rates mid-June, I am guessing that prices will remain in sideways consolidation potentially between 49.01-51.60, potentially 52.80 level. The next few week's EIA reports and DX sentiment heading into FOMC will of course have a large impact on these coming swings. Trade Setup: Buy/LongL 49.01-49.65 TP1: 51.25 TP2: 52.40 SL: Still working on this; please reference the Potential Spring zone and lower demand zone I would expect that prices continue up to test the 8/9 MA level and possibly 50.4 level prior to heading back down to the entry zone, we'll see next week. I'm still shaking of last weeks bumps and bruises; and patiently waiting for the next opportunity. Again, I will update this later with the weekly levels used from 2008 and 2015, it is quite interesting to me how significant they still are. Have a great weekend and happy trading next week all!
NYMEX:CLN2017Long
by smitheric1970
6
Possible Short opportunity - riskyThe UK Brent seem to have met some resistance from both a horizontal resistance and resistance from downward channel. T here is a OPEC meeting 25th May to see if they should extent the production cut 9 more months for its members. You should not trade before this meeting , but rather see the development after the meeting. Bullish sentiments: - The members + Russia are all positive to the cut and I expect little to no resistance on this agreement. This will hopefully result reduction in oilstock and push the price higher. - OPEC have said that they will do whatever it takes to get the oil prices back up. Are these points enough? Bearish points/risk: - US is not part of OPEC and have increased their production. This have resulted in a counter to the OPEC agreement and we have not seen the reduction in oilstocks as many of us expected. - Even with the initial OPEC agreement on this production cut, the oil price have not seen the gain most of us expected. It have still been on the 45-55 range. What is so much different this time? So, if they are able to extend the deal, this might not trigger any big movements to the upside. Might be a little move for a day. But I would expect it to revert and stabalize shortly. If there would be some kind of "hiccup" we could see more risk on the downside. Combined with the technical signals, this might be a good SHORT, but trade with caution on this one!
TVC:UKOILShort
by harveytrades