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Opec

Oil: Potential bullish scenarioI think there is a fair chance that oil breaks out, maybe due to fears of war in the Middle East? Maybe due to OPEC extending production cuts, or maybe a bit of both, paired with Trump's comments of wanting a weaker dollar. I think energy positions are a good hold, and even a good chance to add to many, like $OXY, $PBR, $MPC, $PBF, to name a few. Keep an eye out for the breakout here, if it's confirmed, $XLE will shine surely. This would play nicely with Saudi Arabia's Aramco IPO as well, which makes a lot of sense to me. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
6
Long term view on Crude OilHere is a simple look at my long term view on oil, which lines up relatively well with my expectation for the S&P. As you can see, on the weekly chart, it had appears that we had broken out, but we kept retesting that breakout level as support without getting any really solid bounce. Finally, we broke down into the previous trading channel again and went straight for the bottom of that channel. My shorter term view is that we may drop some early this week (4/3/2017) but ultimately we retest the top of that channel once more, now as resistance again, which is around the $53 level. Following this touch, oil should head back down to the bottom of the channel but this time with a clear and heavy break, sending oil quickly to $45. We will likely move slowly down/sideways until mid/late October of 2017 when I expect the speed of the drop to pick up significantly, ultimately breaking down below the previous low and making a new 16 year low below $25, maybe as low as the $22's. This drop is also reasonable from a fundemental perspective given the continued oversupply of oil to the market and the U.S. attempting to gain a bigger share of the oil market with 2017 production expected to increase. The most resent rig count of 662 has basically doubled from a year ago when at the end of April 2016 the rig count was just 332. That coupled with lesser regulations under the Trump administration. In addition, another OPEC cut decision is expected to come as early as July of 2017 but if that falls through, it could be yet another catalyst for lower oil. We are looking for this next drop to be slightly lower than the previous low. After this is accomplished, I expect a new uptrend in oil to begin, leading oil to the mid $70's again.
NYMEX:CL1!
by whitecollartrading
Oil - Demandi have been looking for oil prices in the short term to bottom at the 45.6-46.1 level; This chart is meant to provide Target Prices for my 'Oil Channel - If It's Not Broke...' chart; please refer to that chart for more information on my overall view as this chart is intended only as a support chart for price targets. I will buy/open long positions at 46.10 and expect that prices may drop down to the 45.6 level. I will take partial profits at each of the Target Prices shown on the chart and will then look for lower levels to re-add the partial long positions in an effort to stagger as prices rally again. Please refer to the chart below for additional details: Good trading all!
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by smitheric1970
Short term target 46, upsloping trend lineBroke out of uptrend with high volume. CFTC showed specs were long, so there is plenty of room to the downside. Spreads have been weak and option volatility was low before breakout. As it broke to the downside, longs scrambled to protect with an downside puts and panic left option vol to increase by over 6 points. On the downside, i am looking into the trendline around 46ish. I would expect a breather there. if it holds, great, but production in the US is up. Only an agreement between Russia and the OPEc on production cuts could truly turn this around.
NYMEX:CL1!Short
by mjhillpp
2
USOIL: 9 week downtrend signal, watch for support belowOil has started a weekly downtrend, which we accurately predicted, monitoring the positioning, sentiment and the spreads in oil against other instruments (energy sector, Canadian dollar, etc). I think we can hold our position for some time, we're short from 53.25. Since we already hit the first 'clone' of the weekly mode range, we could stall here. I'm monitoring it, since we have a few fundamental key levels below price. If these levels don't hold as support, the market will test the next levels below, over and over until it is bid, after finding a floor at levels where OPEC might feel compelled to intervene again. I'm watching both the technicals, and the CoT report data, to determine where to exit the shorts. Good luck if already in, if not, better stand aside and wait to either go long at support, or simply do nothing until oil bottoms again. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILShort
by IvanLabrie
8
Oil weekly/daily, short term buy, long term sell (in comments)After US positive data, China possibly lowering demand and inventories with an Oil flood, the 50-55 range was broken, though these prices under 50 do not really benefit shale producers or OPEC (and therefore could not be 100% sustainable if demand doesn't decrease further), we could have a longer dip to $46 (watch weekly chart I will share) and then maybe a recovery. Fundamentals are as volatile as the market so hardly any prediction can be too exact right now.
NYMEX:CL1!Long
by UnknownUnicorn620061
2
Oil - Higher Weekly Low - Intraweek support chart #5Today, prices hit the H (March) chart daily demand line; Although I am still bearish looking for prices to test near the 48 and possibly 46 level, in the interim, I believe we may see prices validate resistance between 52.8 and 53.3. 52.82 demand level was created following the 12/14 daily close on the March contract. If prices see a daily close below 51.66 I will immediately look to the lower target; details on chart. Good trading all!
NYMEX:CLH2017Short
by smitheric1970
OPEC and Seasonals - SellMarket normally goes into backwardation in FFAs after new years and shipping volumes falls when refineries go into maintenance and cut their crude processing demand. This year, in particular, it should fall even more given the cuts being implemented as per media in the last couple of days. A hot tip to follow the fixtures done is to download VLCC Fixtures (iPhone) from Frontlines own chartering department which provides and overview of cargos/ships/last done. Furthermore, bunker fuel is representative of a large freight cost component which also follows oil upwards and thus is currently putting earnings pressure on all shipping companies. Hence to conclude within jan-feb 2017 this stock should fall to its lows due to OPEC cuts, cost explosion in bunker and seasonal maintenance of refineries, thus the anti-trade of oil short term.
OSL:FROShort
by volsupply
Short OilContinued idea from previous. 1 - The current trendline looks to be tested within the next few days, look for a bounce (long), or a break (add short). 2 - This red horizontal bar is around the $52 area (key transition area), it broke today, and closing below it over the next few days will be a good sign for shorts. 3 - Most big players got out December 30th, which points toward this level being a top for the time being. 4 - Today's drop was based on low volume, therefore we must be careful over the next few days. However, due to the large selling on December 20th, this may be all the volume necessary to truly break $52. Look for a weekly close below this level for a longer-term bear. 5 - RSI broke trend. This points towards an RSI heading towards oversold, with the price following.
FX:USOILShort
by GeorgeJimas
7
Oil - Higher Weekly Low?Amidst the OPEC agreements, Trump's inauguration which will likely increase for oil demand and production and the January typical decline in demand, I am still of mind that prices will find higher prices in the first, maybe second quarter of 2017 but will first seek to secure a higher weekly low support price. I have been looking for a retrace to the 48.36 level, bottom of the upper weekly range; however think it's very possible we also see a retest of the upper .25 of the lower weekly range at approximately 45.9-46.4 level (which has been a strong weekly inflection since April) after which I believe oil prices will continue their rally into mid April at the 56-58 level. I am currently short and if prices do in fact test the 48.4 level I think a quick swing back up to the 52.4-53 level is likely. I am not including a specific strategy here as this is intended to point out potential strong pivot levels. Good trading all!
NYMEX:CL1!
by smitheric1970
1
Get ready for OPEC Meeting Oil futures jumped on Monday after heavy falls in the previous session, reflecting volatility as OPEC officials try to salvage a deal to cut crude production ahead of a long-anticipated formal meeting of the group’s ministers on Wednesday. The 14-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries announced a preliminary deal in September to cut oil output to 32.5-33.0 million barrels per day (bpd) from a record 33.64 million bpd now, to bolster perennially low prices. Although doubts existed over whether the organization, including regional foes Saudi Arabia and Iran, could agree on the mechanism of a cut, many market watchers believed last week a deal would be struck if only to save the group’s credibility. But the chances of an agreement declined over the weekend after Saudi Arabia said oil markets would balance next year even without an OPEC deal and a meeting with non-OPEC producers such as Russia was canceled, sparking shuttle diplomacy to smooth differences before Wednesday’s Vienna gathering. Analysts’ forecasts for oil prices now vary widely. With a realistic but significant deal struck, prices could reach $60 a barrel, according to the most optimistic forecast, or barely approach $50, according to the most bearish prediction. Should OPEC fail to strike a deal, prices may briefly fall to the low $40s but return to current levels, according to the most bullish forecast, or slide downwards to $40, opening the door to $30 a barrel, according to other predictions. CURRENTLY NOT HOLDING ANY POSITIONS BUT LOOKING FOR
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by iBrokers
2
USDCAD: Uptrend in motion, potential targetsUSDCAD might start tracing a continuation of the intermediate term uptrend here. Targets are on chart, both time and price matter here. I estimate to see a strong rally, followed by a correction, until there's enough time chopping around, needed to make the late comers give up, to eventually resume the rally, maybe once or twice before hitting the targets. If you bought gradually with me, or bought before FOMC today, you can hold with break even stop at your average entry price, and simply wait for price to approach the bullish targets on chart. My preferred approach is to monitor the trade, to trail stops and add gradually, and reenter if trailed out, once the eventual pullbacks appear to end. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1