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Get ready for OPEC Meeting Oil futures jumped on Monday after heavy falls in the previous session, reflecting volatility as OPEC officials try to salvage a deal to cut crude production ahead of a long-anticipated formal meeting of the group’s ministers on Wednesday. The 14-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries announced a preliminary deal in September to cut oil output to 32.5-33.0 million barrels per day (bpd) from a record 33.64 million bpd now, to bolster perennially low prices. Although doubts existed over whether the organization, including regional foes Saudi Arabia and Iran, could agree on the mechanism of a cut, many market watchers believed last week a deal would be struck if only to save the group’s credibility. But the chances of an agreement declined over the weekend after Saudi Arabia said oil markets would balance next year even without an OPEC deal and a meeting with non-OPEC producers such as Russia was canceled, sparking shuttle diplomacy to smooth differences before Wednesday’s Vienna gathering. Analysts’ forecasts for oil prices now vary widely. With a realistic but significant deal struck, prices could reach $60 a barrel, according to the most optimistic forecast, or barely approach $50, according to the most bearish prediction. Should OPEC fail to strike a deal, prices may briefly fall to the low $40s but return to current levels, according to the most bullish forecast, or slide downwards to $40, opening the door to $30 a barrel, according to other predictions. CURRENTLY NOT HOLDING ANY POSITIONS BUT LOOKING FOR
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by iBrokers
2
USDCAD: Uptrend in motion, potential targetsUSDCAD might start tracing a continuation of the intermediate term uptrend here. Targets are on chart, both time and price matter here. I estimate to see a strong rally, followed by a correction, until there's enough time chopping around, needed to make the late comers give up, to eventually resume the rally, maybe once or twice before hitting the targets. If you bought gradually with me, or bought before FOMC today, you can hold with break even stop at your average entry price, and simply wait for price to approach the bullish targets on chart. My preferred approach is to monitor the trade, to trail stops and add gradually, and reenter if trailed out, once the eventual pullbacks appear to end. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
Crude Oil - Market DirectionWith being sure Oil was going to continue its way down on price, OPEC hit us with a curve and decided to change things up... Announcing the decrease in production by 1.3 million barrels a day, we have seen the price for Crude and Brent Oil skyrocket. Now, we have price hitting a heavy resistance level... Will this recent chance in oil production be enough to break this price level this week? Only time will tell... Please feel free to comment your ideas below. vv
OANDA:WTICOUSD
by cdschultheis15
CLF2017: Oil futures updateWe have closed half higher, near the high of the day, and now stop is at entry price. It might take a while to proceed higher, so there is no rush, simply hold the position for the time being. If you want, you can short calls against it until January but you would defeat any possible upside to come. I did reccomend shorting call options for the $OXY trade though, and here we just close half for now. We need to see how price action evolves from here. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NYMEX:CLF2017Long
by IvanLabrie
Texas Tea - A Comedic (2 Week) Oil JourneyOil Analysis with a comedic twist... As OPEC has been flashing 'somewhat' positive tweets regarding a deal to cut/freeze production; we have seen quite the rally in oil prices; Friday marked prices closing on a weekly AND monthly basis higher than the past 14 months of weekly closing/breakdown levels. However, this analysis is based on the possibility of oil falling after's OPEC's meeting on Saturday December 10th - after potentially another positive outcome. Why? Because it is immediately followed by the upcoming FOMC rate hike decision dates Dec 13/14 and after all is said and done, the DX (US Dollar) is the king of WTI. I believe that prices will revisit their July 2015 range briefly prior to testing support near the midpoint of the 45.62-50.37 long term trading range. This is only one possibility of many; but the theme here is oil prices climbing into the 50-50.2 daily range outlined onto chart and then falling into the FOMC meeting finding buying support at the 48.37-49.2 level (details on chart) Oil Manipulation = Prices falling after OPEC finally pretends they're buds; because lets face it... The large money movers think that speculators deserve to be crushed and right after OPEC does the happy dance, the USD will likely kick oil right in the groin and bring it to its knees. My Inspirational Clarity in preparing for the volatile weeks to come: www.youtube.com USD training for post OPEC happy dance: www.youtube.com OPEC smiling and shaking hands: www.youtube.com Hope you enjoyed and found some usefulness in the serious parts; Good trading all!
NYMEX:CL1!
by smitheric1970
10
Stars allign for an IAG SHORT! Fundamentally, Airlines are having a tough ride & it doesn't look like its going to stop anytime soon. The fragmented industry has failed to provide any consistent returns for the last 10 years (EBIT margins have averaged just over 1.2%!!), Full service airlines specifically have been struggling - not only due to the exogenous demand factors then rely on (Eurozone GDP), but also as they have been forced to cut previously revenue generating activities such as offering on board amenities in order to compete on price with low cost carriers. IAG are currently making a loss on their operations with costs spiralling out of control. Labour disputes have further added to their headache as heavy unionisation prevents them cutting staff! Been looking for a short entry for just over a month, and with the OPEC decision yesterday (Oil accounts for 34% of operating costs!!), aswell as a rejection of the 450 level completing a long term head and shoulders pattern - looking to get short as soon as 420 price is broken to the downside. Entry - 415 SL - 460 First Target - 360 Second Target - 320
LSE:IAGShort
by jakeostrovskis
1
USOIL: Hold longs!USOIL is tracing a daily uptrend, and broke above the recent downtrend's linear regression channel. If we hold the current uptrend pace, we can expect the top key level resistances to be hit in a day or two. I'd assume we'll stall while holding support above the monthly downtrend mode in blue, so, I'll be monitoring the uptrend progress to add to it if viable, and to time our exit. I think it's possible we get an OPEC production cut agreement, which could squeeze most shorts, who don't believe it is possible, and the overall bearish retail traders. Trump could play out as a wild card here as well, so it's worth it to keep some long exposure to energy, oil and gas in particular. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
TVC:USOILLong
by IvanLabrie
19
EURUSD: Wait for Draghi's speech and maybe for the daily closeWe should be seeing a turn in the Euro very soon. I'm already long with a wider stop and looking to add to longs. I advise caution today, the market is awaiting Draghi later today. We're overbought in 4h, and RgMov shows bearish sentiment in this timeframe (contrary to daily and weekly bullishness), so a new low could trigger selling in the short term. What I'd like to see would be new lows tripping 'All stops known to man' after the news and a quick reversal, closing the day near the highs. This would give the perfect excuse to enter longs on a new daily high after today's close, and tightening my initial position's stop, reaching a full position, long the Euro. If not, another positive outcome would be a rapid rally causing today's price range from the open to be bigger than Friday's true range, giving us an excuse to buy dips and/or new highs above the previous 3 days' range. Let's keep our eyes on this now. Right now, there's a bullish signal in the daily with new highs, but the news are a huge risk, if we were to trade with tighter stop losses. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
Long
by IvanLabrie
1
UCO: We bought yesterday's closeThis is potentially a very good trade, for the time being, we can expect it to retest the top of the range. If you didn't buy with me and my clients yesterday at the close, you can buy here, risking a new low under the recent lowest low. Target is at least a retest of the previous rally's top, but it could evolve into resuming the longer term 'Time at mode' uptrend signal in the oil chart. In the case of $UCO, it could rally to 21.19. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
AMEX:UCOLong
by IvanLabrie
2
Long OIL into OPEC (Nov 30th) (Daily)If OIL trends the way i think it will, it'll be a coincidence in regards to the OPEC meet at the end of November. I just want to get that part cleared. :P Short term speaking we're looking close to a bottom here at these levels. RSI divergence, 3 wave correction, and possible MACD crossover all signal buy right now. It will be interesting to see how Sunday night plays out, but I'll be looking at starting a 1/5 position at around the 42.60-80 area either Monday or Tuesday. If for some reason OIL gaps up or runs before open, I'll look at a close above 44.90 to enter. If OIL falls bellow (and closes bellow) 42, this chart is scrap. GL
TVC:USOILLong
by xsubtownerx
2