USOIL : Potential Short Setup at 52.75 towards 49ishThis looks like potential larger ZZ ABC with B towards 52.75 and C towards sub 49.
if you notice in lower TF, B looks very corrective in nature and not the impulse creating bear flag. yet manage SL above 54 as oil always overshoot the targets either sides
Entry Price: 52.75$
SL: 54.5
Target: 49 or below
Opec
USOIL: 9 week downtrend signal, watch for support belowOil has started a weekly downtrend, which we accurately predicted, monitoring the positioning, sentiment and the spreads in oil against other instruments (energy sector, Canadian dollar, etc). I think we can hold our position for some time, we're short from 53.25.
Since we already hit the first 'clone' of the weekly mode range, we could stall here. I'm monitoring it, since we have a few fundamental key levels below price. If these levels don't hold as support, the market will test the next levels below, over and over until it is bid, after finding a floor at levels where OPEC might feel compelled to intervene again.
I'm watching both the technicals, and the CoT report data, to determine where to exit the shorts.
Good luck if already in, if not, better stand aside and wait to either go long at support, or simply do nothing until oil bottoms again.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Oil weekly/daily, short term buy, long term sell (in comments)After US positive data, China possibly lowering demand and inventories with an Oil flood, the 50-55 range was broken, though these prices under 50 do not really benefit shale producers or OPEC (and therefore could not be 100% sustainable if demand doesn't decrease further), we could have a longer dip to $46 (watch weekly chart I will share) and then maybe a recovery. Fundamentals are as volatile as the market so hardly any prediction can be too exact right now.
crude oil price have new opportunities in this year OPEC's historic agreement to reduce production of oil and new US president Donald Trump policies for the return of economic sanctions on Iran, and his quest to return the quantitative easing program, all these factors will support oil prices to rise.
Oil - Higher Weekly Low - Intraweek support chart #5Today, prices hit the H (March) chart daily demand line; Although I am still bearish looking for prices to test near the 48 and possibly 46 level, in the interim, I believe we may see prices validate resistance between 52.8 and 53.3. 52.82 demand level was created following the 12/14 daily close on the March contract. If prices see a daily close below 51.66 I will immediately look to the lower target; details on chart.
Good trading all!
Doubled down on oil shortRSI trending down, it has yet to be reflected in the price.
I doubled down on my short friday when the price peaked, and the OPEC meeting hasn't change my mind. IMO the OPEC news was already priced in with oils run to $55, and until I see some solid statistics from OPEC and not just a bunch of words, my mind isn't changing.
OPEC and Seasonals - SellMarket normally goes into backwardation in FFAs after new years and shipping volumes falls when refineries go into maintenance and cut their crude processing demand. This year, in particular, it should fall even more given the cuts being implemented as per media in the last couple of days. A hot tip to follow the fixtures done is to download VLCC Fixtures (iPhone) from Frontlines own chartering department which provides and overview of cargos/ships/last done. Furthermore, bunker fuel is representative of a large freight cost component which also follows oil upwards and thus is currently putting earnings pressure on all shipping companies. Hence to conclude within jan-feb 2017 this stock should fall to its lows due to OPEC cuts, cost explosion in bunker and seasonal maintenance of refineries, thus the anti-trade of oil short term.
Short OilContinued idea from previous.
1 - The current trendline looks to be tested within the next few days, look for a bounce (long), or a break (add short).
2 - This red horizontal bar is around the $52 area (key transition area), it broke today, and closing below it over the next few days will be a good sign for shorts.
3 - Most big players got out December 30th, which points toward this level being a top for the time being.
4 - Today's drop was based on low volume, therefore we must be careful over the next few days. However, due to the large selling on December 20th, this may be all the volume necessary to truly break $52. Look for a weekly close below this level for a longer-term bear.
5 - RSI broke trend. This points towards an RSI heading towards oversold, with the price following.
Oil - Higher Weekly Low?Amidst the OPEC agreements, Trump's inauguration which will likely increase for oil demand and production and the January typical decline in demand, I am still of mind that prices will find higher prices in the first, maybe second quarter of 2017 but will first seek to secure a higher weekly low support price.
I have been looking for a retrace to the 48.36 level, bottom of the upper weekly range; however think it's very possible we also see a retest of the upper .25 of the lower weekly range at approximately 45.9-46.4 level (which has been a strong weekly inflection since April) after which I believe oil prices will continue their rally into mid April at the 56-58 level.
I am currently short and if prices do in fact test the 48.4 level I think a quick swing back up to the 52.4-53 level is likely.
I am not including a specific strategy here as this is intended to point out potential strong pivot levels.
Good trading all!
Get ready for OPEC Meeting Oil futures jumped on Monday after heavy falls in the previous session, reflecting volatility as OPEC officials try to salvage a deal to cut crude production ahead of a long-anticipated formal meeting of the group’s ministers on Wednesday.
The 14-member Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries announced a preliminary deal in September to cut oil output to 32.5-33.0 million barrels per day (bpd) from a record 33.64 million bpd now, to bolster perennially low prices.
Although doubts existed over whether the organization, including regional foes Saudi Arabia and Iran, could agree on the mechanism of a cut, many market watchers believed last week a deal would be struck if only to save the group’s credibility.
But the chances of an agreement declined over the weekend after Saudi Arabia said oil markets would balance next year even without an OPEC deal and a meeting with non-OPEC producers such as Russia was canceled, sparking shuttle diplomacy to smooth differences before Wednesday’s Vienna gathering.
Analysts’ forecasts for oil prices now vary widely.
With a realistic but significant deal struck, prices could reach $60 a barrel, according to the most optimistic forecast, or barely approach $50, according to the most bearish prediction.
Should OPEC fail to strike a deal, prices may briefly fall to the low $40s but return to current levels, according to the most bullish forecast, or slide downwards to $40, opening the door to $30 a barrel, according to other predictions.
CURRENTLY NOT HOLDING ANY POSITIONS BUT LOOKING FOR
CRUDE OIL, DAY CHART, NEUTRAL (18-DEC-2016)Note: Crude Oil
Now we see the price of crude oil is near the strong
resistance zone at 52.2x level.
There are 2 trading plans for this:
1. If the price breaks the resistance zone strongly,
wait for pullback to the resistance zone or 20-EMA
and bullish signal to long again
2. If there are 1-2 more bearish signal around the
resistance zone, it might be good to short!
USDCAD: Uptrend in motion, potential targetsUSDCAD might start tracing a continuation of the intermediate term uptrend here. Targets are on chart, both time and price matter here. I estimate to see a strong rally, followed by a correction, until there's enough time chopping around, needed to make the late comers give up, to eventually resume the rally, maybe once or twice before hitting the targets.
If you bought gradually with me, or bought before FOMC today, you can hold with break even stop at your average entry price, and simply wait for price to approach the bullish targets on chart. My preferred approach is to monitor the trade, to trail stops and add gradually, and reenter if trailed out, once the eventual pullbacks appear to end.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
USDCAD: Start buying now, and in the next 2 daysWe can start buying USDCAD here, risk 1-3% with stop at 1.2916. If we go lower, increase the amount you buy each day at the close until we reach our max risk goal.
Then we can enjoy the uptrend, if the setup goes well, and eventually add more and tighten stops once it is confirmed.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
RSX lower trend brokenRSX has been in a relentless downtrend, but has now traded past a lower hi at 18. If OPEC meeting tomorrow is perceived as positive for $OIL, RSX should be on the next leg up with 1st target at 21-22, and then at 25-27. Best.
Crude Oil - Market DirectionWith being sure Oil was going to continue its way down on price, OPEC hit us with a curve and decided to change things up...
Announcing the decrease in production by 1.3 million barrels a day, we have seen the price for Crude and Brent Oil skyrocket.
Now, we have price hitting a heavy resistance level...
Will this recent chance in oil production be enough to break this price level this week? Only time will tell...
Please feel free to comment your ideas below. vv
CLF2017: Oil futures updateWe have closed half higher, near the high of the day, and now stop is at entry price.
It might take a while to proceed higher, so there is no rush, simply hold the position for the time being.
If you want, you can short calls against it until January but you would defeat any possible upside to come. I did reccomend shorting call options for the $OXY trade though, and here we just close half for now.
We need to see how price action evolves from here.
Good luck,
Ivan Labrie.
Texas Tea - A Comedic (2 Week) Oil JourneyOil Analysis with a comedic twist...
As OPEC has been flashing 'somewhat' positive tweets regarding a deal to cut/freeze production; we have seen quite the rally in oil prices; Friday marked prices closing on a weekly AND monthly basis higher than the past 14 months of weekly closing/breakdown levels. However, this analysis is based on the possibility of oil falling after's OPEC's meeting on Saturday December 10th - after potentially another positive outcome. Why? Because it is immediately followed by the upcoming FOMC rate hike decision dates Dec 13/14 and after all is said and done, the DX (US Dollar) is the king of WTI. I believe that prices will revisit their July 2015 range briefly prior to testing support near the midpoint of the 45.62-50.37 long term trading range. This is only one possibility of many; but the theme here is oil prices climbing into the 50-50.2 daily range outlined onto chart and then falling into the FOMC meeting finding buying support at the 48.37-49.2 level (details on chart)
Oil Manipulation = Prices falling after OPEC finally pretends they're buds; because lets face it... The large money movers think that speculators deserve to be crushed and right after OPEC does the happy dance, the USD will likely kick oil right in the groin and bring it to its knees.
My Inspirational Clarity in preparing for the volatile weeks to come: www.youtube.com
USD training for post OPEC happy dance: www.youtube.com
OPEC smiling and shaking hands: www.youtube.com
Hope you enjoyed and found some usefulness in the serious parts; Good trading all!
BCEI missing out on oil rally Bearish Setup 4hrOnly up 6.7%, CRC managed to climb 44.4%. Despite the low price, it looks like there are other options to take advantage of with the good news from OPEC
Stars allign for an IAG SHORT! Fundamentally, Airlines are having a tough ride & it doesn't look like its going to stop anytime soon. The fragmented industry has failed to provide any consistent returns for the last 10 years (EBIT margins have averaged just over 1.2%!!), Full service airlines specifically have been struggling - not only due to the exogenous demand factors then rely on (Eurozone GDP), but also as they have been forced to cut previously revenue generating activities such as offering on board amenities in order to compete on price with low cost carriers.
IAG are currently making a loss on their operations with costs spiralling out of control. Labour disputes have further added to their headache as heavy unionisation prevents them cutting staff! Been looking for a short entry for just over a month, and with the OPEC decision yesterday (Oil accounts for 34% of operating costs!!), aswell as a rejection of the 450 level completing a long term head and shoulders pattern - looking to get short as soon as 420 price is broken to the downside.
Entry - 415
SL - 460
First Target - 360
Second Target - 320
OIL surprise good for CHKOPEC oil cut agreement bodes well for companies like $CHK. Can target 14 in the fullness of time