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Opec

Crude Cuts Up LongsI haven't posted about crude in a few weeks because the fundamentals and technicals simply have told the same story over and over again. Bulls get bullish because A) they believe the global economic growth falacy or B) it's so oversold it must go higher. My charts did not change, and, yes, it has played out well technically to the downside. It is ever closer to the $42.13 longer-term trend line (purple dotted line). OPEC... or Saudi Arabia, rather, will continue to put the big hurt on US shale plays. The EIA crude inventory report shown a surplus of 8.9 million barrels, following a increase of 10.1 million barrels the following month. The API data was even more bearish, suggesting an increase of over 12 million barrels. US shale companies will continue to pump, even as rigs fall to multi-year lows. Even given the 120+ days of declining gas prices, demand is still not there. Potential long accumulation could be interesting in low $42, perhaps lower. However, $80/90 barrel oil is not even going to be possible. $55/60 seems more realistic.
NYMEX:CL1!
by CommoditiesTrader
4
FLY THE FRIENDLY SKIES?The price of oil has been sliding in the second half of 2014, but airlines have not lowered their prices. Or brought back free meals. Or allowed domestic customers to check in luggage free of charge. So how can one turn flying friendly? Perhaps by purchasing U.S. airline stocks. The cost of oil has plunged nearly 48% since the end of June and the market remains stuck in one direction. OPEC nations might make less profit and Russia, Iran and Iraq might be faced with significant economic and social issues. However, individual customers should be in the winning column. Customers have not fully benefited from oil’s collapse. While gas is cheaper at the pump, food, clothes and airline tickets haven’t declined appreciably. Since these companies will not pass on even some of their profits to customers, then customers will need to extract benefits on their own. U.S. airline stocks such as American Airlines (AAL) and Delta (DAL) have been surging since October 10, as they became easy choices for investors and short-term speculators. These stocks have been moving in the opposite direction than oil (CL1!) and they will remain in demand for as long as oil will be cratering. The four-week correlation between oil and American Airlines is near perfect high negative levels. It rarely drops below -.8, and then the correlation doesn’t last more than a few weeks. Things have changed — the high negative correlation has been in place for 1 ½ months. Only a bounce of the four-week correlation above -.8 would suggest profit taking on American Airlines and Delta.
NYMEX:CL1!
by charttrader
9
GBPCAD Trade IdeaIt would appear that this is the second time pair is bouncing up from below 1.76 which is now determined to be very strong support. As with the last price action it then moved up above 1.8. Looking at the MACD, we can see that there is consolidation and a cross over about to occur. I think within the next candle we should know if this is a buy opportunity. Only consider buying if the price enters the support and resistance zone. Although the crude oil price/canadian dollar correlation has loosened, I would still think a strong move higher will happen if OPEC does not cut production.
by maccabean